Tools for Staying Ahead of the Curve
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1 Tools for Staying Ahead of the Curve Today s Presenters Eric Ross FHWA- Office of Infrastructure TPM Engineer [email protected] Esther Strawder FHWA-Office of Safety Safety Specialist [email protected] Nathaniel Coley FHWA- Office of Infrastructure Economist [email protected] Michael Nesbitt FHWA- Office of Infrastructure Stakeholder Engagement Liaison [email protected] FHWA Transportation Performance Management
2 Tools for Staying Ahead of the Curve LCCA and RealCost in Map-21/TPM TPM Exchange Office of Transportation Performance Management March 25, 2013 Eric Ross Transportation Performance Management Engineer FHWA Program Performance Management 2
3 LCCA and RealCost in Map-21/TPM LCCA Economic Analysis Compares Different Alternatives Discount Rates What Do you need? Agency costs Design, Activity timing, Structural Life, Functional Life, Analysis Period,. User Costs Activity Duration, Capacities, Speeds, ADT, Operating Costs, FHWA Transportation Performance Management 3
4 Life Cycle Condition Terminal Serviceability Index Time Service Life Initial Activity Activity One Activity Two Analysis Period When will the future maintenance and rehabilitation costs be incurred? FHWA Transportation Performance Management 4
5 Computing Life-Cycle Costs Present Value = of Costs N Σ (Co 1 st k ) x (1 + d) n k k = 0 Cost = Cost of the activity N = length of analysis period d = discount rate n k = year of expenditure Present Value Factor FHWA Transportation Performance Management 5
6 Probabilistic Approach Frequency, % 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Alternative B Alternative A Net Present Value (NPV), $Millions FHWA Transportation Performance Management 6
7 Difference Distribution Curve Alt A Alt B 60% of the Time Alternative A will be Less than Alternative B. 100% 90% Cumulative Probability, % 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Net Present Value (NPV), $Millions FHWA Transportation Performance Management 7
8 LCCA Software - RealCost TM FHWA Transportation Performance Management 8
9 FHWA Transportation Performance Management 9
10 Tools for Staying Ahead of the Curve Benefit-Cost Analysis An Investment/Economic Analysis Tool TPM Exchange Office of Transportation Performance Management March 25, 2013 Nathaniel D. Coley, MBA Structural Engineer/Economist Office of Transportation Performance Management FHWA Program Performance Management 10
11 Why Investment/Economic Analysis? System demands far outweigh available & expected resources Links accountability to decision making Proven process for evaluating alternatives MAP-21 Requirements link investments to outcomes Investment Plans Performance-Based Plans Financial Plans 11
12 Analyzing Transportation Decisions We typically evaluate objectives individually but program projects as a package of objectives Crash Modification Factors Other Areas Congestion Reduction Bridge/Pavement Investments Emissions Reductions 12
13 Analyzing Transportation Decisions We need to evaluate investment decisions on a project by project bases considering all factors Overall Project Merit 13
14 Overall Project Merit Overall Project Merit Overall Project Merit Overall Project Merit Analyzing Transportation Decisions Building a Program or Plan Benefit Cost Ratio Safety ROI 7.3 $2.3m -234 crashes Avoided 2.1 $2.3m -234 crashes Avoided.03 $2.3m -234 crashes Avoided -2 $2.3m -234 crashes Avoided Life-Cycle Costs 5.1mil 7.1mil 15.1mil 22.1mil Environmental ROI $3.1m Or NOx $7m Or CO $1.9m Or NOx $5.3m Or NOx 14
15 Economic/Investment Analysis For public agencies benefit cost analysis results describe ROI. Traditional benefit cost analysis and ROI analysis for transportation includes user benefits (time, cost, safety) for travelers and select environmental effects (air, quality, noise) along with capital, operations, and maintenance(o&m) costs. 1
16 Economic/Investment Analysis Initial Capital Cost Benefits Costs Dollars Example Benefits Reduced Accident Costs Reductions in Delay Costs Reduced noise or emissions Year We monetize benefits & account for the changing value of a dollar over time 16
17 Economic/Investment Analysis: Tools BCA.NET: web-based project-level benefit-cost analysis tool FHWA Program Performance Management 17
18 Economic/Investment Analysis: Tools BCA.NET: web-based project-level benefit-cost analysis tool FHWA Program Performance Management 18
19 Economic/Investment Analysis: Tools BCA.NET: web-based project-level benefit-cost analysis tool Surface Transportation Efficiency Analysis Model: corridor-level benefit cost analysis tool for large transportation projects FHWA Program Performance Management 19 19
20 Economic/Investment Analysis: Tools BCA.NET: web-based project-level benefit-cost analysis tool Surface Transportation Efficiency Analysis Model: corridor-level benefit cost analysis tool for large transportation projects FHWA Program Performance Management 20 20
21 Economic/Investment Analysis: Tools BCA.NET: web-based project-level benefit-cost analysis tool Surface Transportation Efficiency Analysis Model: corridor-level benefit cost analysis tool for large transportation projects NBIAs: System level bridge needs assessment tool FHWA Program Performance Management 21
22 Economic/Investment Analysis: Tools BCA.NET: web-based project-level benefit-cost analysis tool Surface Transportation Efficiency Analysis Model: corridor-level benefit cost analysis tool for large transportation projects NBIAs: System level bridge needs assessment tool FHWA Program Performance Management 22
23 Economic/Investment Analysis: Tools BCA.NET: web-based project-level benefit-cost analysis tool Surface Transportation Efficiency Analysis Model: corridor-level benefit cost analysis tool for large transportation projects NBIAs: System level bridge needs assessment tool FHWA Program Performance Management 23
24 Economic/Investment Analysis: Tools BCA.NET: web-based project-level benefit-cost analysis tool Surface Transportation Efficiency Analysis Model: corridor-level benefit cost analysis tool for large transportation projects NBIAs: System level bridge needs assessment tool BLCCA2:Bridge Life- Cycle Cost Analysis FHWA Program Performance Management 24
25 Economic/Investment Analysis: Tools BCA.NET: web-based project-level benefit-cost analysis tool Surface Transportation Efficiency Analysis Model: corridor-level benefit cost analysis tool for large transportation projects NBIAs: System level bridge needs assessment tool BLCCA2:Bridge Life- Cycle Cost Analysis FHWA Program Performance Management 25
26 Nathaniel D. Coley Jr. Federal Highway Adm. Washington, DC
27 Tools for Staying Ahead of the Curve HSM and Related Analysis Tools TPM Exchange Office of Transportation Performance Management March 25, 2013 Esther Strawder Safety Specialist, FHWA- Office of Safety
28 What is the HSM? The HSM is a tool for estimating safety performance of design and traffic control elements being evaluated in the project development process The HSM introduces a science-based approach that allows safety to be quantitatively evaluated alongside traffic operations, environmental impacts and construction costs Provides analytical tools and techniques for quantifying the potential effects on crashes as a result of decisions made in planning, design, operations, and maintenance 28
29 HSM Related Analysis Tools HSM Section Related Web links Tools Part B: Roadway Safety Management Process Safety Analyst Part C: Predictive Methods Part D: Crash Modification Factors (CMFs) IHSDM CMF Clearinghouse cmfclearinghouse.org 29
30 How do the tools relate to HSM? Safety Analyst provides a set of software tools used by state and local highway agencies for the highway safety management process documented in Part B of the HSM Safety Analyst can be used by highway agencies to improve their programming of site-specific highway safety improvements. The IHSDM Crash Prediction Module (CPM) provides a faithful software implementation of the crash prediction methods documented in Part C of the HSM IHSDM is a suite of software analysis tools for evaluating safety and operational effects of geometric design decisions on highways FHWA Transportation Performance Management 30
31 CMF Clearinghouse FHWA Transportation Performance Management 31
32 QUESTIONS Ray Krammes Data & Analysis Team Leader (202) Mshadoni Smith HSM & Analysis Tools POC (202) Esther Strawder Integration & Planning POC (202) Karen Scurry CMF Clearing House (609) Clayton Chen IHSDM (202) FHWA Transportation Performance Management 32
33 Tools for Staying Ahead of the Curve MAP-21 Website TPM Exchange Office of Transportation Performance Management March 25, 2013 Michael Nesbitt Stakeholder Engagement Liaison
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45 Do you want to learn more about collaborating on performance management with regional partners? Contact Michael Nesbitt FHWA Transportation Performance Management 45
46 Do you have a Noteworthy Practice or Upcoming Event to share? Contact Eric Ross Tashia J. Clemons [email protected] [email protected] FHWA Transportation Performance Management [email protected] 46
47 Questions? Thank You!
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