broadband satellite markets 10th edition

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1 Thought Leadership The foundation of NSR s business is the ability to continually help clients stay ahead of the curve and anticipate trends before it is too late to react. Whether it is a market research report covering a new application area or a unique consulting service tailored specifically for you, NSR prides itself in leading the industry with new, innovative offerings. This first-to-market approach has enabled NSR to successfully anticipate market direction for a range of services and applications in all regions of the globe. Never content to only provide analyses on legacy markets, NSR has routinely broken new ground by analyzing and forecasting a range of up-andcoming applications and services across a wide range of coverage areas. Mixing technical expertise with business acumen, NSR s forward-looking thought leadership is a critical element of our client s decision making in all regions. broadband satellite markets 10th edition A Worldwide Analysis of Industry Trends and Market Forecasts from 2010 to 2020 Satellite Communications Northern Sky Research, LLC One Mifflin Place 119 Mount Auburn Street Suite 400 Cambridge, MA USA Phone: Fax: info@nsr.com Broadcasting & Digital Media Hybrid & Emerging Applications Commercial Space

2 Studying the market for a decade, adding new value in every edition VSAT networking and broadband access continue gains; a turning point for IP trunking The global economic crisis impacted the VSAT networking market in most regions of the world through a large part of 2010; however, the worst is now behind in nearly every region, and the industry is looking ahead to growth and new challenges in the years to come. Classic verticals like banking and lottery are almost in a semi-renaissance period, while government-backed rural inclusion, school network and USO initiatives continue to see strong growth in many developing markets. This NSR report describes these vertical markets in detail and presents their drivers and challenges. New in this Edition Regions Covered North America Latin America Western Europe Central & EasternEurope Middle East & North Africa Sub-Saharan Africa Asia O3b trunking & backhaul forecasts Trunking & Backhaul forecasts separated Narrowband VSAT projections included The satellite broadband access segment chalked up solid gains in 2010 with a net increase of some 141,000 subscribers worldwide for the year. Yet, a new era is imminent for these services with the successful launches of KA-SAT and Hylas-1 in 2010 and the expected launches of ViaSat-1, Jupiter and YahSat-1B in the coming 18 months. And beyond this, concrete endeavors are in the works for satellite broadband access services in Australia, Russia, Latin America and elsewhere. NSR continues to be the leading analyst firm assessing and forecasting the satellite broadband access market in terms of High Throughput Satellite (HTS) services. This analysis continues to be extended into VSAT networking and backhaul segments for the overall broadband satellite markets, giving professionals a deep knowledge of the market, from the big picture to detailed information per region and per technology. The IP trunking market had its turning point in 2010 and its last strongholds, notably in Africa, are now under siege from powerful market forces. Fiber and undersea cable deployments are eating away at the base of IP trunking demand, first swallowing the largest links and then progressively eyeing smaller and smaller satellite trunking plays. This NSR reports provides a detailed forecast for IP trunking, per region and per band, allowing every IP trunking player to have access to the necessary information to deal with this ongoing change. The satellite backhaul situation is just the opposite. Backhaul is gradually adopting IP technology, and TDMA deployments are expanding services to ever more rural and remote locations allowing a profitable business even on the smallest of traffic demand. Further, USO obligations are also behind the expansion of backhaul in a number of countries such as Brazil and Indonesia. NSR Coverage Areas Forecasting O3b trunking and backhaul demand and... The finalization of funding for the O3b constellation through to its planned launch of commercial services in 2013 essentially seals the deal for this player and means the industry must come to terms with the future impact of O3b on market demand. Following on work done in NSR s Wireless Backhaul Via Satellite, 4th Edition study, NSR has developed a new forecast for uptake of IP trunking services using O3b capacity and combined this with its O3b demand forecast for the backhaul market in order to offer to the industry the most comprehensive assessment of the impact of O3b on the market. This latest edition of NSR s Broadband Satellite Markets report assesses O3b uptake within the industry and provides a forecast of O3b capacity for provisioning of IP trunking and backhaul services. Further, O3b is fully integrated into NSR s sites, service revenues, and customer premises equipment (CPE) sales for the trunking and backhaul projections. This is of course in addition to highly detailed, region-specific sites/subscriber, service revenues, customer premises revenues, and capacity demand projections for each traditional application studied in this report. S atell i te C ommun i cat i ons From spacecraft manufacturing and launching to the applications that drive capacity supply and demand B roadcast i n g & D i g i tal M ed i a Video is the core and... inclusion of narrowband VSAT networking for the most complete view of the market available foundation of the industry, typically accounting for 60% or more of total NSR has long forecasted the narrowband VSAT networking market within the context of its Global Assessment of Satellite Supply and Demand market studies. Starting in this edition of the Broadband Satellite Markets report, this assessment of narrowband-provisioned VSAT networks is now included here in order to provide an all-inclusive analysis and quantitative assessment of the entire global VSAT networking market. Key applications such as lottery as well as rapidly developing segments like SCADA typically make use of narrowband VSAT networks and are growing rapidly around the world. Inclusion of the narrowband segment in this study allows NSR to clearly illustrate the interrelated trends of the entire VSAT market. revenues H y br i d & E mer g i n g A ppl i cat i ons NSR s leading edge coverage has shown that satellite is more than ever intertwined with the fabric of terrestrial networks C ommerc i al S pace Beyond telecommunictions services, Commercial Space presents promising opportunities for the space industry

3 Primary Questions Addressed in this Report Include: What are the trends driving or restraining growth in the installed base of sites or subscribers for each market? Which market segments and which regions are most likely to benefit from new demand or expansion of existing services? Who are the main players in each industry segment, and what have been their key successes in the last year? What are the revenues to be generated from service provision and customer premises equipment sales in each region and market segment? What is the satellite capacity demand for each service in each region and how is this being provisioned? Where is classic commercial FSS C- and Ku-band capacity being used for service provisioning, what is the impact of High Throughput Satellites (HTS) on market take-up and capacity demand, and where does O3b capacity leasing come into play? Primary Elements of the Report Include: Industry trend analysis including NSR s qualitative assessment of each major market segment A bottom-up forecasting approach based on detailed site and subscriber data Results of the forecast in terms of bandwidth leased, bandwidth revenues, customer premises equipment units sold and revenues for every market segment studied More than 300 detailed tables and charts Includes Excel sheets with all key data, tables and charts Step-by-step methodology Variance analysis for each market to highlight any changes between the current and prior forecasts in this market Key methodology updates and critical resource for NSR s report library The Broadband Satellite Markets 10th Edition continues to make use of a consistent methodology for forecasting VSAT sites, broadband access subscribers, and trunking/backhaul sites. Yet, the methodology is not rigid and has been revisited in key areas as necessary in order to most closely match actual trends in the real world. For this most recent edition, NSR used a revised methodology specifically for forecasting capacity demand within the IP trunking market in order to fully include the impact of O3b on the market. The new capacity demand methodology results in the same historical demand estimates, but improves our forecasting accuracy and allows for a smooth integration of the O3B component into the IP trunking model. Further, the Broadband Satellite Markets, 10th Edition study is a critical input into NSR s Global Assessment of Satellite Supply and Demand series of market studies and makes use of key data from the Wireless Backhaul via Satellite, 4th Edition study. This illustrates once again that all of NSR s market research studies are fully integrated into a coherent library of detailed and highly granular research on the commercial satellite market. All clients of the Broadband Satellite Markets, 10th Edition report are also entitled to a FREE half-day of consulting time with an NSR analyst. This time can be used to review report findings, interpret market forecasts and determine how the report information applies to your company s business model.

4 Executive Summary Market Overview and Key Findings For VSAT networking services, some regions still felt impact of recession in 2010, while others are emerging strong with 2011 set to be even better All in all, broadband VSAT networking services did quite well in 2010 with a number of regional markets like North America, Latin America, and parts of Asia and Central & Eastern Europe emerging in good shape from the 2009 global economic recession. Yet, there do remain a few other regions where service providers saw mixed results in 2010, such as Sub-Saharan Africa and a few countries in Central Asia and Eastern Europe. NSR believes that 2011 should offer steady improvements in these regions, and by 2012 there is a strong likelihood of a surge in demand for broadband VSAT networking services as enterprise spending picks up and satellite capacity becomes more abundant. Global Broadband Satellite Market Forecasts Putting together the combined global base of narrowband & broadband VSAT networking sites, satellite broadband access subscribers, and broadband trunking & backhaul sites, NSR estimated that the total installed base of sites and subscribers stood at 3.4 million in This is projected to grow at a CAGR of 9.7% reaching 8.6 million in The largest share of this growth in sites and subscribers will come from satellite broadband access services. In many ways, the VSAT industry is going through a mini-renaissance in classic VSAT applications like lottery and banking, and NSR expects to see strong continued growth in narrowband VSAT services in the coming years. More importantly, NSR is often seeing these narrowband services upgraded to broadband over time, and this is a critical long-term trend in the greater VSAT networking market to introduce a true paradigm shift in satellite broadband access services The adoptions of High Throughput Satellite-provisioned satellite broadband access services will allow the industry to finally begin the process of remaking the satellite broadband access market into an offering that should compare favorably to adsl services in many unserved or underserved markets. This is not to say that smooth sailing is guaranteed for the satellite broadband access sector. It will take a very substantial educational and marketing effort to remake the general public perception of satellite Internet access services being a last resort application, and the industry will still need to address the critical issue of the upfront cost of these services. Yet, NSR believes that the industry is up to these challenges and projects a better than fourfold increase in satellite broadband access subscribers in the coming ten years. Service and customer premises equipment (CPE) revenues for the broadband satellite industry are projected to increase by better than US$4.9 billion between 2010 and Service revenues, especially from satellite broadband access subscribers, account for the largest share of this gain. This clearly underpins the reasoning behind the move by a number of players into the satellite broadband access market. Last bastion of trunking begins to cede, while backhaul scores continued strong gains Sub-Saharan Africa has long been the last major bastion of broadband satellite trunking services in the world. The industry has been expecting that the arrival of major new undersea cables as well as expansion of terrestrial fiber would negatively impact the trunking market in this region, and 2010 was the year that this was actually realized. Yet, there will remain niches for trunking demand longterm in most regions of the world, and the launch of O3b could even lead to some new net growth for trunking sites in the future. Backhaul, conversely, continues its steady progress in many markets around the world, and NSR fully expects strong gains here. Further, use of HTS capacity has made real inroads in the backhaul market in Asia in the last year, and NSR would expect a similar trend in other regions to emerge in the coming years. NSR also anticipates that backhaul will become a key market for O3b in the future, and this will drive further gains in backhaul sites from about 2013 onwards. A final important trend of note is the growing use of broadband satellite backhaul to expand cellular coverage in order to meet USO obligations and rural connectivity goals set by governments in developing markets. Satellite capacity demand trends vary substantially by region and application. However, for classic FSS capacity it can be said that Ku-band dominates and will account for the majority of the forecasted global gain of leased transponders. Yet the real story is the emergence of HTS-provisioning of broadband services, notably satellite broadband access services.

5 Our goal is to help manager s worldwide plan for growth based on unbiased, actionable intelligence and analysis Research Report Topics Gov t and Military Satellite Communications Broadband Satellite Markets Machine to Machine (M2M) and SCADA Mobile Satellite Services Wireless Backhaul via Satellite Satellite Capacity Supply & Demand IPTV via Satellite Advanced Satellite Coding and Modulation Direct-to-Home (DTH) Digital Signage Mobile TV and Mobile Video Earth Observation High Throughput Satellites (HTS) Remote Sensing Video Broadcasting and more... Place your order for the Research Reports on above topics at About NSR NSR is a leading international telecom market research and consulting firm with a mission to provide unique insights & assist organizations in strategic decision making. With an experienced group of analysts located in all regions, NSR is a premier global market research and consulting company. 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By analyzing growth in video channels and feeds, in addition to location of emerging video platforms and applications in each region, NSR is able to provide detailed market insight for our customers. Hybrid & Emerging Applications NSR s leading edge coverage of new hybrid and emerging applications has shown that satellite is more than ever intertwined with the fabric of terrestrial networks. By analyzing how convergence impacts competition and cooperation between these two worlds, this practice area helps unlock new growth potential for our customers. Commercial Space Beyond telecommunications services, Commercial Space presents promising opportunities for the space industry. Ranging from all aspects of earth observation services to navigation and positioning services and government space programs, NSR presents a wide-ranging analysis of demand for these applications as well as the all important aspect of public spending for space activities. 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