Against the odds Re-engaging young people in education, employment and training

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1 Against the odds Re-engaging young people in education, employment and training Technical paper Creating a predictive model of the characteristics of young people NEET July 2010

2 The Audit Commission is an independent watchdog, driving economy, efficiency and effectiveness in local public services to deliver better outcomes for everyone. Our work across local government, health, housing, community safety and fire and rescue services means that we have a unique perspective. We promote value for money for taxpayers, auditing the 200 billion spent by 11,000 local public bodies. As a force for improvement, we work in partnership to assess local public services and make practical recommendations for promoting a better quality of life for local people.

Our work across local government, health, housing, community safety and fire and rescue services means that we have a unique perspective.

3 Contents Introduction 4 The predictive model 5 Limitations 7

4 Introduction Introduction 1 This analysis quantifies the relationship between the characteristics of young people and their risk of being out of education, employment or training (NEET) for six months or more. 2 Nine Connexions teams provided data on each of the young people recorded on their database. The analysis focused on the population of around 24,000 young people aged 16 on 1 September It includes data about the activities undertaken by each young person between 1 September 2007 and 31 August The analysis excludes the cases of any young people involved with Connexions teams for less than six months. Of the 24,000 young people included in the database, 10.3 per cent were NEET for six months or more in the period. 3 The analytical approach uses binary logistic regression to quantify the extent to which information about the characteristics of a young person predicts whether he or she would be NEET for six months or more in the period between 1 September 2007 and 31 August The data held by Connexions teams includes information about the personal characteristics of each young person, for example their gender or ethnic group. 4 Binary logistic regression is a method estimating how likely it is that a particular outcome will take place, based on one or more explanatory factors. The outcome in this analysis is whether a young person is NEET for six months or more. The explanatory factors are information about each young person and the activities they have been involved in. Against the odds 4

The analysis focused on the population of around 24,000 young people aged 16 on 1 September 2007.

5 Limitations The predictive model 5 Table 1 lists the explanatory factors used in this analysis. This list of explanatory factors was selected from a longer list by testing whether there was evidence that young people with a certain characteristic were more likely to be NEET for more than six months than those without the characteristic. Each variable in the table was converted into a 'Yes/No' format where 1 equals Yes and 0 equals No. For example, young people recorded as having a special educational need (SEN) were labelled with a value of 1 for the variable 'SEN identified'. Table 1 Factors used in the analysis Nine factors were selected for use in this analysis. Explanatory factor Description Percentage of young people Carer Education_3_month Young person is recorded as a carer between 1 September 2007 and 31 August Young person was involved in education for less than 3 months between 1 September 2007 and 31 August LLD Young person has a limiting learning difficulty. 7.0 NEET Pregnant_parent SEN_identified Substance_misuse Young person is NEET one or more times between 1 September 2007 and 31 August Young person is recorded as pregnant or a parent between 1 September 2007 and 31 August Young person has one or more special educational needs recorded. Young person has disclosed substance misuse one or more times between 1 September 2007 and 31 August Supervised_by_YoT Young person is recorded as supervised by a youth offending team between 1 September 2007 and 31 August White_British Young person's ethnic group is White British Audit Commission Against the odds

months than those without the characteristic. Each variable in the table was converted into a 'Yes/No' format where 1 equals Yes and 0 equals No.

6 The predictive model 6 The model uses information about the explanatory factors for each young person in the Connexions data to predict whether the young person will be NEET for six months or more between 1 September 2007 and 31 August Table 2 describes the model. Table 2 Predictive model Nine indicators predict the NEET status of 91 per cent of young people. Explanatory factor Direction of relationship Increase in likelihood of being NEET for six months or more NEET Positive times more likely Pregnant_parent Positive times more likely Supervised_by_YoT Positive times more likely Education_3_month Positive times more likely Substance_misuse Positive times more likely Carer Positive times more likely SEN_identified Positive times more likely LLD Positive times more likely White_British Positive times more likely Audit Commission 7 Each of the explanatory factors increases the chances of a young person being NEET for more than six months. The third column in Table 2 shows how much each factor affects the likelihood of a young person being NEET for six months or more. For example, if a young person has disclosed substance misuse then they are twice as likely (2.084) to be NEET for six months or more, compared to someone who has not. 8 The model correctly predicts the NEET status of 91 per cent of the young people included in the analysis. It is most effective at predicting the status of young people who are not NEET, with 97 per cent predicted correctly. The model is less effective at predicting the status of young people that are already NEET. The model correctly predicts the status of 39 per cent of young people who were NEET for more than six months. Against the odds 6

Explanatory factor Direction of relationship Increase in likelihood of being NEET for six months or more NEET Positive 7.877 times more likely Pregnant_parent Positive 2.

7 Limitations Limitations 9 The model seeks to use information from nine teams to predict the likelihood that specific young people will be NEET for six months or more based on their characteristics. Although we are using data for a substantial number of young people, they were from just nine areas. It is reasonable to expect that some of the variation in the likelihood of being NEET will depend on the area in which a young person lives, over and above their personal characteristics. We cannot model this variation without data from a wider selection of team areas. 10 The model is less effective at predicting the NEET status of young people who are NEET for more than six months than for those who are not. This means that the factors listed in Table 2 are only part of the prediction of the NEET status of young people. It is the case that young people that possess one or more of the attributes listed in Table 2 are substantially more likely to be NEET than those who have none of these attributes. However, it is also the case that there are young people with none of these attributes who go on to be NEET for six months or more. 11 We can mitigate the risk posed by these limitations in three ways: focus on quantifying the broad differences in the impact of the explanatory factors; acknowledge that many young people with none of the explanatory factors listed in Table 2 will be NEET for six months or more; and take any opportunities to extend the geographic coverage of the dataset. 7 Against the odds

It is reasonable to expect that some of the variation in the likelihood of being NEET will depend on the area in which a young person lives, over and above their personal characteristics.

8 If you require a copy of this document in an alternative format or in a language other than English, please call: If you require a printed copy of this document, please call: or ac-orders@audit-commission.gov.uk This document is available on our website. We welcome your feedback. If you have any comments on this report, are intending to implement any of the recommendations, or are planning to follow up any of the case studies, please nationalstudies@audit-commission.gov.uk Audit Commission 2010 Printed in England by AccessPlus with ISO environmental accreditation Audit Commission on Revive 2010 FSC and ECF 100% recycled paper. Design and production by the Audit Commission Publishing Team. Image copyright Audit Big Stick Commission

If you have any comments on this report, are intending to implement any of the recommendations, or are planning to follow up any of the case studies, please email: nationalstudies@audit-commission.

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