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1 Decision Tools to Make Management and Marketing Decisions Kevin Dhuyvetter and Glynn Tonsor Agricultural Economists Kansas State University K State Decision Tools Cattle Price Oriented ( Expectations on Feeder Cattle Cash Prices Examine Feeder Cattle Risk Management Alternatives K State Feeder Cattle Risk Management Tool Project Premium/Discount of Calf/Steer Attributes K State Feeder Cattle Price Analyzer Stocker Breakeven Selling/Purchasing Prices Cattle Breakeven Selling and Purchase Prices K State Decision Tools Management Oriented ( Value of Beef Replacements KSU Beef Replacements Beef Cow Lease Agreements KSU CowLease Determining Flint Hills Pasture Rents KSU Graze.xls Determining Cost of Caring for Cows KSU Cow Wintering Costs.xls

2 Price forecast for feeder calf What is your forecast for the price of a 538 lb steer in Springfield on May 7, 2012? 1. $ $ $ % 32% 26% 4. $ $ $ % 7. >$190 Value of a replacement heifer How much are you willing to pay for a replacement heifer (similar quality as the rest of your herd)? 1. $ $ $ $ $ > $ Does not apply 6% 39% 22% 33% Backgrounding costs If you are backgrounding calves this winter (or did), what would you estimate your cost of gain to be (excluding interest)? 1. < $50 2. $ $ $ $ > $ Does not apply 13% 27% 4 2

3 How much can I pay for a heifer/cow? Input Output KSU Beef Replacements.xls developed to help producers consider how much they can pay for replacement females given various assumptions. (Excel spreadsheet available on How much can I pay for stocker cattle? Notable AgManager Resources /livestock/marketing/ Buy Sell.xls developed to help producers estimate breakeven purchase prices for feeder calves they are buying and breakeven selling prices for calves they are feeding given various assumptions. Weekly commentary & newsletters Current & historical price information Risk management/forecasting tools (Excel spreadsheet available on

4 Other References of Notable Interest: /livestock/budgets/production/ Value of Gain (Situation and Decision Tool Overview) Cattle Cycles (Historical Overview and Implications) KSU Beef Replacement (Calculate Economic Value of Purchasing Replacements) Regular Newsletters & Commentary KSU Radio Interview /livestock/marketing/outlook/newsletters/ OR state.edu/news/desktopdefault.aspx?tabid=66 Weekly, released on Mondays (Tonsor, Peel, LMIC) In the Cattle Markets Weekly (Mark, Feuz, Petry, Riley/Anderson) Recent Cattle Finishing Returns /livestock/marketing/outlook/newsletters/finishingreturns/ monthly updates based on Focus on Feedlots newsletter Regular Situation Update Commentary: LMIC Chart of the Week Weekly Price & Production Summary Quick Market Reports Current Price & Basis Information Futures Markets OR /livestock/marketing/futures/ LC, FC, LH & C, SB, S, W Cash Markets /livestock/marketing/graphs/default.asp#price Charts /livestock/marketing/database/default.asp#cattle and Beef Databases Dodge City, Pratt, & Salina lb steer; KS Direct Slaughter steer prices Basis (Cash Futures) Information /livestock/marketing/graphs/default.asp#basis Charts BeefBasis.com ( )

5 Risk management and return forecasting tools available: Feeder Cattle Sales Risk Management Tool Compare expected sales prices of alternative FC marketing strategies /livestock/marketing/lrp/ Feedlot Profitability Tool: NAIBER s Feeding Risk Analyzer Forecasts feedlot returns and variability in returns for future placements BeefBasis.com Decision support for hedging feeder cattle (output for cow calf; input for feedlots) Weekly distribution of AgManager updates UPDATE&A=1 OR your request to: Rich Llewelyn 18

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