Business Planning for the Allocation of Milk Quota to New Entrants

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1 Business Planning for the Allocation of Milk Quota to New Entrants

2 The business plan should start with a comment on where the farm is currently, what is planned over the next number of years and how it is anticipated that the investment will be financed. The business plan must be realistic. The financial feasibility of the plan will be one of the main criteria in evaluating the allocation of milk quota under this scheme. Data is included in some of the tables attached for illustration purposes only. The business plan should address the following issues: 1. Audit of current resources 2. Capital expenditure 3. Income and expenditure 4. Stock flow 5. Source and application of funds 2

3 1. Audit of Current Resources Area Buildings Machinery Contractors employed Labour resources available Adjusted area Forage area Cows Milking parlour Milk tank & Dairy Slurry storage Animal Housing & Isolation units Calf rearing Tractors Other machinery Silage etc. Current labour resources Liabilities Other Livestock on the farm SFP REPS 3

4 2. Capital Expenditure Investment assumptions included in the analysis on the modelled farm Item Description Cost Stock 50 lactating cows ,000 7,500 Reseeding of farm 20 ha, one pass till, sow, roll + 10,000 grass seed + fertiliser Fencing 6, /m 2,000 Water supply 10 water troughs + 1 km water 3,000 pipe laid Farm Roadways 1 Km of 5 m wide 5,000 5/m Milking parlour and feed 14 unit herring bone shed + dairy 50,000 pad + collecting yard/feed pad Milking plant 20 unit milking plant 25,000 Milk tank Milk tank & dairy 25,000 Slurry store Existing 0 Wintering pad Existing 0 Isolation Units Conversion 5,000 Calf Housing Existing 0 Silage Slab Existing 0 Electricity supply Existing 0 Machinery Existing 0 Planning Drawings + site assessment + 5,000 planning application Working capital Rent + feed +interest 5,000 Contingency 5 % allowance to allow for 10,000 unexpected costs that may arise Total Year 1 222,500 Borrowed 148,750 Total Year 5 321,500 Borrowed total 221,550 4

5 3. Income and expenditure This will include (i) Farm projections should show full profit and loss account details for the 5 years of the investment. Summary details only shown in table 2. (ii) Economic assumptions included in the analysis (Table 1) (iii) Farm projections over the 5 years of the investment (Table 2) (iv) Sensitivity analysis around milk price, concentrate costs and inflation rate on costs on surplus cash (Table 3) Table 1: Economic assumptions included in the analysis Default Farm size (Ha) 55 Gross milk price c/l 24.0 Cull cow value 400 Male calf value 75 Concentrate costs /t 200 Urea /t 360 CAN /t st Cut Silage /Ha nd Cut Silage /Ha 190 Interest rate % pa 5.0 *Cost inflation % pa 3.0 * Inflation on costs included on fertiliser, machinery hire, silage making, vet, AI and medicine, farm consultancy, electricity, labour, machinery operation and repair. Inflation rate taken at 3%pa from base of 2010 (not compounded) 5

6 Table 2 : Farm projections over the 15 years of the investment Year Cow Milk produced Kg Labour costs Milk price c/l Interest repayment Capital repayment Veterinary cost Surplus Cash Borrowings Year-end ,519 20, ,438 6,893 8,666-1, , ,895 20, ,567 8,743 11,759 4, , ,366 26, ,141 10,321 14,567 13, , ,983 32, ,392 11,802 15,459 27, , ,338 33, ,865 12,480 18,757 40, ,070 Total 84,483 Stock value at end of period Cows 110* 1, ,000 Replacement heifers 30* 1,300 39,000 Yearlings 30* ,000 Cash Surplus + Stock value 298,483 6

7 Table 3: Sensitivity analysis around milk price, concentrate costs and inflation rate on costs on surplus cash Milk price 24c/l Concentrate costs 200/t Cost inflation 3%/Year Year Base -2c/l +2c/l 250/t 150/t 4%/year 2%/year 1-1,534-7,210 4,143-2, ,534-1, ,239-3,765 12,244 3,073 5,404 3,552 4, ,115 2,712 23,518 11,612 14,618 11,470 14, ,729 14,550 40,910 25,701 29,757 24,888 30, ,935 25,248 56,625 38,422 43,448 36,714 45,157 Total 84,483 31, ,439 76,444 92,522 75,090 93,876 7

8 Stock Flow This will include (i) Biological performance assumptions included in the economic analysis. (Table 4) (ii) Stock and liabilities at end of each year of plan (Table 5) Table 4: Biological performance assumptions included in the economic analysis Year Protein % Fat % MS/Ha Milk Solids kg Milk yield kg Cows in milk Culling percentage % Additional Veterinary cost /cow Total vaccines /cow Mortality in calves % Mortality in cows % Herbage production kgdm/ha , , , , , , , , , , , ,570 8

9 Table 5. Stock and liabilities at end of each year of plan Livestock No. Cows In-Calf heifers Weanling heifers Heifer calves Other stock Total Feed Silage t Hay (bales) Straw (bales) Concentrate t Total Liabilities Overdraft Term Loan Other loans Creditors 9

10 5. Source and application of funds for each year of plan 1. The SFP and other agricultural related income should be added to the cash output from the cash flow statements from the dairy enterprise. 2. Drawings should be deducted 3. An estimation of tax should be made and deducted from cash income 4. All repayments not related to the dairy enterprise (repayments related to the dairy enterprise will have been included in enterprise analysis) should then be deducted. 5. Any investment that is made on the farm and not included in the profit and loss or cash flow statement 6. Any interest accrued 10

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