Health Economics Group, Faculty of Medicine and Health Sciences University of East Anglia, Norwich Research Park

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1 MARCELLO MORCIANO Health Economics Group, Faculty of Medicine and Health Sciences University of East Anglia, Norwich Research Park Personal Information Date and Place of birth: 02 October 1978, Gagliano del Capo (Lecce), Italy Nationality: Italian Office address: MED 2.19, University of East Anglia, NR4 7TJ Norwich (UK) Tel: +44 (0) ; Fax: +44 (0) ; Education 2008 part-time PhD student, Institute for Economic and Social Research, UNIVERSITY OF ESSEX, UK 2008 MSc in Applied Economics and Data Analysis (with merit), UNIVERSITY OF ESSEX, UK 2007 PhD in Economics, UNIVERSITY OF BOLOGNA, ITALY 2003 BA in Economics (cum laude), UNIVERSITY OF MODENA AND REGGIO EMILIA, ITALY. Current Research Interests The Economics of Disability Health and Public Economics of Ageing Applied Health Micro-Econometrics Pension and Long Term Care policies Public Finance and Redistribution: measurement and analysis of Poverty and Inequality Static and dynamic microsimulation models. Selected list of publications Under Review: Morciano M., Hancock R. and Pudney S. (2012), Disability costs and equivalence scales in the older population. Under review with Review of Income and Wealth (Available as ISER working paper Colchester: Institute for Economic and Social Research, University of Essex) Published or forthcoming: 1

2 Hancock R., Morciano M. and Pudney S. (2012), Attendance Allowance and Disability Living Allowance claimants in the older population: is there a difference in their economic circumstances?. Journal of Poverty and Social Justice, 20 (2), pp Mazzaferro C., Morciano M. and Savegnago M. (2012), Differential mortality and redistribution in the Italian notional defined contribution system. Journal of Pension Economics and Finance, 11 (04), pp Hancock R., Malley J., Wittenberg R., Morciano M., Pickard L., King D. and Comas-Herrera A. (2012), The role of care home fees in the public costs and distributional effects of potential reforms to care home funding for older people in England. Health Economics, Policy and Law, online advance: DOI: Mazzaferro C. and Morciano M. (2012), Pensioni pubbliche: l ultima riforma?. In Zanardi A. (ed.) La finanza pubblica italiana. Rapporto Il Mulino, Bologna. ISBN Mazzaferro C. and Morciano M. (2012), Atypical workers and the adequacy of the pension system. In Perotti V. and Mandrone E. (eds.), Labour Economics: PLUS Empirical Studies, Ediguida, Rome, forthcoming Marano A., Mazzaferro C. and Morciano M. (2012), The strengths and failures of incentive mechanisms in notional defined contribution pension systems. Paper accepted by Il Giornale degli Economisti e Annali di Economia (Available as DSE working paper no. 799, Department of Economics, University of Bologna) Malley J., Hancock R., Murphy M., Adams J., Wittenberg R., Comas-Herrera A., Curry C., King D., James S., Morciano M. and Pickard L. (2011), The effect of lengthening life expectancy on pension and long-term care expenditure in England, 2007 to Health Statistics Quarterly, 52 (winter) Mazzaferro C. and Morciano M. (2011), Measuring intragenerational and intergenerational redistribution in the reformed Italian social security system, MEF working paper , Department of the Treasury, Ministry of Economy and Finance, Rome Shemilt I., Thomas J. and Morciano M. (2010), A web-based tool for adjusting costs to a specific target currency and price year, Evidence & Policy, 6 (1), Mazzaferro C. and Morciano M. (2009), I costi della lenta transizione al sistema contributivo: un analisi distributiva, Studi e Note di Economia, , Baldini M., Mazzaferro M. and Morciano M. (2008), Assessing the implications of long term care policies in Italy: A microsimulation approach, Politica Economica, Baldini M., Gori C., Mazzaferro C. and Morciano M. (2008), Costi e argomenti, in C. Gori (ed.) Le riforme regionali per i non autosufficienti. Gli interventi realizzati e i rapporti con lo Stato, Carocci, Roma Mazzaferro C., Morciano M. and Toso S. (2007), Previdenza e Assistenza: primi passi e incertezze sulla strada delle riforme, in M.C. Guerra, A. Zanardi (eds.), La finanza pubblica italiana. Rapporto 2007, Il Mulino, Bologna Ballini F., Betti G., Lemmi A., Marzadro S., Morciano M., Neri L. and Sciclone N. (2007), Stima della povertà a livello locale. I casi di Toscana, Modena e Trentino, in A. Brandolini, C. Saraceno (eds.), Povertà e benessere: Una geografia delle disuguaglianze in Italia, Il Mulino, Bologna Baldini M., Morciano M. and S. Toso (2007), Chi ha beneficiato delle riforme del nostro sistema di tax-benefit? Le ultime due legislature a confronto, in A. Brandolini and C. Saraceno (eds.), Povertà e benessere: Una geografia delle disuguaglianze in Italia, Il Mulino, Bologna 2

3 Morciano M. (2006), Gli effetti redistributivi dei tributi comunali di Puglia ed Emilia Romagna, Economia Pubblica, 36 (3-4). Working papers and reports not yet published or under review: Wittenberg R., Hu B., Hancock R., Morciano M., Comas-Herrera A., Malley J. and King D. (2011), Projections of demand for and costs of social care for older people in England, 2010 to 2030, under current and alternative funding systems, PSSRU Discussion paper 2811/2, Personal Social Services Research Unit, London School of Economics and Political Science, London Ciani E. and Morciano M. (2011), Estimation and Simulation of Earnings in IT-SILC, Center for the Analysis of Public Policies (CAPP) no.90, University of Modena and Reggio Emilia, Department of Economics Flisi D. and Morciano M. (2011), Trends and dynamics in the Italian labour market. An empirical evaluation using RFL data, , Center for the Analysis of Public Policies (CAPP) no.91, University of Modena and Reggio Emilia, Department of Economics Balarajan M., Gray M., Blake M., Green S., Darton R., Fernandez J-L., Hancock R., Hendersen C., Kearns D., King D., Malley J., Martin A., Morciano M., Pickard L. and Wittenberg R. (2010) Cognitive testing for social care questions for people aged 65 and over London: National Centre for Social Research King D., Balarajan M., Blake M., Cheshire H., Darton R., Gray M., Hancock R., Henderson C., Jones A., Legard R., Malley J., Martin A., Morciano M., Mugford M., Pickard L., Shemilt I., Snell T. and Wittenberg R. (2010), Developing Improved Survey Questions on Older People s Receipt of, and Payment for, Formal and Informal Care, Personal Social Services Research Unit, London Balarajan M., Gray M., Blake M., Green S., Darton R., Fernandez J-L., Hancock R., Hendersen C., Kearns D., King D., Malley J., Martin A., Morciano M., Pickard L. and Wittenberg R. (2009), Developing social care questions: findings from qualitative research with service users. London: National Centre for Social Research Mazzaferro C., Morciano M., Pisano E. and Tedeschi S. (2010), The Introduction of a Private Wealth Module in CAPP_DYN: an Overview, Materiali di discussione del Dipartimento di Economia Politica no.630, University of Modena and Reggio Emilia, Department of Economics Mazzaferro C., Morciano M., Pisano E. and Tedeschi S. (2010), Modelling Private Wealth Accumulation and Spend-down in the Italian Microsimulation Model CAPP_DYN: A Life-Cycle Approach, Center for the Analysis of Public Policies (CAPP) no.73, University of Modena and Reggio Emilia, Department of Economics Mazzaferro C. and Morciano M. (2008), CAPP_DYN: A Dynamic Microsimulation Model for the Italian Social Security System, Materiali di discussione del Dipartimento di Economia Politica no. 595, University of Modena and Reggio Emilia, Department of Economics Morciano M. and Silvestri P. (2008), Integrazione tra dati censuari e dati di indagini sulla condizione economica delle famiglie per la costruzione di mappe della povertà locale e di modelli di valutazione delle politiche sociali locali, Center for the Analysis of Public Policies (CAPP) no. 37, University of Modena and Reggio Emilia, Department of Economics Mazzaferro C. and Morciano M. (2007), Pension reforms, educational choices and the long term dynamic of employment in Italy, Center for the Analysis of Public Policies (CAPP) no. 34, University of Modena and Reggio Emilia, Department of Economics 3

4 Morciano M. (2007), Un modello di microsimulazione a popolazione dinamica per l analisi del sistema di protezione sociale italiano, Unpublished PhD Thesis, University of Bologna Addabbo T., Facchinetti G., Morciano M., Picchio A. and Pirotti T. (2006), Qualità della vita base della qualità del lavoro, Materiali di discussione del Dipartimento di Economia Politica no. 548, University of Modena and Reggio Emilia, Department of Economics Mazzaferro C. and Morciano M. (2005), Un modello di microsimulazione dinamica per la stima degli effetti distributivi della riforma pensionistica, Atti della Società Italiana di Economia Pubblica, Dipartimento di Economia Pubblica e Territoriale, University of Pavia Morciano M. (2005), Tributi locali e distribuzione del reddito nei comuni dell Emilia Romagna, Materiali di discussione del Dipartimento di Economia Politica no. 502, University of Modena and Reggio Emilia, Department of Economics. Papers in Progress: Morciano, M., Zantomio, F., Hancock, R., and Pudney S., Do household surveys give a coherent picture of disability? A multi-survey latent variable analysis for the older population ; Morciano M. and Hancock R., Latent Factor Models of Disability and their Application in Micro- Simulation Models ; Morciano M., Health status and engagement with surveys of older people in England ; Morciano M. and Mazzaferro C., A Dynamic Micro-simulation Model for the long-term analysis of the Italian Social Security System ; Mentzakis E. and Morciano M., Assessing Reporting Heterogeneity of satisfaction with health measures ; Flisi S., Mazzaferro C. and Morciano M., The effect of the Italian Pension Reform on the labour market ; Ciani E, and Morciano M., Health Status and Receipt of Disability Benefit in Italy: an empirical evaluation using the longitudinal component of the Italian SILC ; Hancock R., Morciano M., and Pudney S., The distributional impact of varying the disability and financial criteria in assessing eligibility for disability benefits for older people in the UK. Current Position and Affiliation Research Fellow, HEALTH ECONOMICS GROUP, UNIVERSITY OF EAST ANGLIA, UK PhD student, INSTITUTE FOR ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL RESEARCH, UNIVERSITY OF ESSEX, UK Member of the UK Health Economists Study Group (HESG) Member of the International Microsimulation Association (IMA) Member of the Society for the Study of Economic Inequality (ECINEQ) 4

5 2004- Member of CENTRE FOR THE ANALYSIS OF PUBLIC POLICIES, UNIVERSITY OF MODENA AND REGGIO EMILIA, ITALY. Research Projects Pending projects: AXA RESEARCH FUND: Equity, target efficiency and incentives in the balance of public financing in care, disability benefits and other cash benefits for older people. Role: Co-Applicant (234k euros) Current Research projects: ESRC: Disability and care needs in the older population: disability benefits, social care and well-being. Role: Co-Applicant NUFFIELD FOUNDATION: Care and support of older people living in the community: understanding receipt of formal and informal care, payment for services, provision of informal care and their implications for policy (in collaboration with LSE, PSSRU and NatCen). Role: Co-Applicant NUFFIELD FOUNDATION: Enhancing a dynamic microsimulation model for assessing the distributional implications of potential reforms to the UK system of financial support for older people with care needs. Role: named Researcher (the scheme did not allow me to be an applicant) AXA RESEARCH FUND: How can private long-term care insurance supplement state systems? The UK as case study (in collaboration with LSE, the Nuffield Trust and the University of Barcelona). Role: Co-Applicant AUSTRALIAN RESEARCH COUNCIL: Financing aged care in Australia: mitigating fiscal gaps and maintaining intergenerational equity (in collaboration with NATSEM, University of Canberra, University of New South Wales, the Australian Institute of Health and Ageing). Role: named Researcher Past Research Projects: EU - PROGRESS PROGRAM: Assessing adequacy and long term distributive effects of the Italian pension system. A microsimulation approach (in collaboration with University of Modena and Reggio Emilia and University of Bologna). Role: Joint Principal-Investigator AGE UK: Can older people afford to lose Attendance Allowance? (in collaboration with University of Essex). Role: named Researcher NUFFIELD FOUNDATION: The role and effectiveness of disability benefits for older people (in collaboration with University of Essex). Role: named Researcher DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH AND THE NUFFIELD FOUNDATION: Developing improved survey questions on older people s receipt of, and payment for, formal and informal care (in collaboration with LSE and the National Centre for Social Research). Role: named Researcher DYNAMICS OF AGEING PROGRAMME: Modelling Ageing Populations to 2030 (MAP2030) ITALIAN MINISTRY OF LABOUR AND SOCIAL POLICIES: Studio prospettico del fenomeno della povertà in Italia mediante la predisposizione di un modello di microsimulazione. Role: Joint Principal- Investigator 5

6 2004 EMILIA ROMAGNA REGION, ANCI-UPI: Tributi locali e distribuzione del reddito nei comuni dell Emilia Romagna. Role: Principal-Investigator ISFOL: Aspetti relativi all impatto delle riforme previdenziali sulla popolazione in età tra i 50 e i 64 anni. Role: Joint Principal-Investigator Carlo Cattaneo Research Institute: Rapporto sulle povertà in Italia. Role: named Researcher District of Modena, Emilia Romagna Region, ANCI-UPI: I bilanci dei Comuni dell Emilia Romagna dal 2001 al Un analisi delle determinanti della spesa. Role: Joint Principal- Investigator 2004 Municipality of Modena: Valutazione dell impatto distributivo sulle famiglie delle politiche fiscali, tariffarie e di offerta di servizi del Comune di Modena. Role: named Researcher 2004 Emilia Romagna Region, ANCI-UPI: Tributi locali e distribuzione del reddito nei comuni dell Emilia Romagna. Role: named Researcher MINISTRY OF WELFARE: Aspetti distributivi del sistema pensionistico italiano nella prospettiva del passaggio al sistema contributivo. Role: named Researcher. Professional and Teaching Experiences Research associate ( Assegnista di ricerca SECS-P/03 ), University of Modena and Reggio Emilia, Tutor: Prof. Paolo Bosi 2007 Tutor: Public Economics (undergraduate), University of Modena and Reggio Emilia 2007 E-Learning Tutor: Public Economics (undergraduate), University of Bologna Research associate ( Assegnista di ricerca SECS-P/03 ), University of Modena and Reggio Emilia, Tutor: Prof. Paolo Silvestri Research assistant at CAPP, University of Modena and Reggio Emilia 2005 Lecturer: Optimal Indirect Taxation Theory (course of Public Economics), University of Modena and Reggio Emilia 2005 Teaching assistant: Microeconometrics (undergraduate), University of Modena and Reggio Emilia 2005 Lecturer: Introductory course in Mathematics (course in Microeconomics), University of Bologna 2005 Lecturer: Data Source and Data Mining (course in Statistics), University of Bologna Tutor: Mathematics and Statistics, University of Bologna 2004 Tutor: Training Course in Policy Evaluation, POLEIS srl, Modena (Italy). Government Reports and Evidences to Official Inquiries 6

7 House of Commons select committee evidence: Comas-Herrera A., Fernandez J-L., Hancock R., Hu B., King D., Malley J., Morciano M., Pickard L., Snell T. and Wittenberg R. (2012) Demographic pressures on adult social care: note for house of lords select committee on public services and demography change. Hancock, R., Hviid M., Morciano M., Comas-Herrera, A., King, D., Malley, J., Pickard, L. and Wittenberg R. (2012) Written evidence from the University of East Anglia and the London School of Economics (SC79) in House of Commons Health Committee Report on Social Care. Fourteenth report of Session , volume III (HC 183-III) London: The Stationery Office Hancock, R., Malley, J., King, D., Pickard, L., Comas-Herrera, A. and Morciano, M. (2009) Paying for Long-term Care: Potential Reforms to Funding Long Term Care Memorandum by the MAP2030 Research Group (SC55) In House of Commons Health Committee Report on Social Care. Third report of Session , volume 2 (HC 22-2) London: The Stationery Office Pudney, S., Zantomio, F., Hancock, R. and Morciano, M. (2009) Memorandum by the Universities of Essex and East Anglia (SC 52) In House of Commons Health Committee Report on Social Care. Third Report of Session , Volume 2 (HC 22-2). London: the Stationery Office. Government Reports: 2011 Contributions to Par. 2.2 Costs and Impacts of the Andrew Dilnot Commission Report Fairer Care Funding, The Report of the Commission on Funding of Care and Support. pp (with Wittenberg R., Hu B., Hancock R., Comas-Herrera A., Malley J. and King D.). Department of Health, London 2011 Assessing Adequacy and Long-Term Distributive Effects of the Italian Pension System. A Microsimulation Approach (eds. with Mazzaferro C.), Final Report, EU-PROGRESS 2009 Creating a harmonised disability measure across British national surveys from the hierarchy of activities of daily living (with Carol J., Matthews R., King D., Comas-Herrera A., Grundy E., Stuchbury R. and Hancock R.), Department of Work and Pension, UK 2008 Studio prospettico della poverta in Italia (with Colombini S., Mazzaferro C. and Savegnago M.), Ministero della Solidarietà Sociale, Roma 2005 Gli effetti redistributivi del passaggio al sistema contributivo, , in Aspetti distributivi del sistema pensionistico nella prospettiva del passaggio al sistema contributivo (with Baldini M., Mantovani D. and Mazzaferro C.), Ministero del Lavoro e delle Politiche Sociali, Roma. Policy-oriented on-line contribution 2012 Marano A., Mazzaferro C. and Morciano M., Su alcune criticità della riforma pensionistica Monti-Fornero, in nelmerito Mazzaferro C. and Morciano M., Quanto sara la pensione di domani, in lavoce.info Mazzaferro C. and Morciano M., Le prestazioni pensionistiche future, in Social News, 3/ Mazzaferro C. and Morciano M., Il fattore anziani al lavoro, in lavoce.info Mazzaferro C. and Morciano M., Quanto costa non decidere, in lavoce.info

8 2006 Baldini M., Morciano M. and Toso S., Due legislature, due sistemi di tax-benefit, in lavoce.info Major Invited Talks 2012 European meeting of the International Microsimulation Association, May, Dublin (Ireland) 2012 ESRC Research Centre on Micro-social Change (MISOC) research Workshop 9 January 2012, Colchester th Conference of the Society for the Study of Economic Inequality (ECINEQ), July, Catania (Italy) 2010 International Conference on Evidence-Based Policy in Long-Term Care (8-11 September), London School of Economics, London 2010 Winter Health Economists Study Group (HESG), London School of Economics, London nd General Conference of the International Microsimulation Association, Ottawa 2009 Modelling Ageing Populations to 2030, London School of Economics, London st Technical meeting: Monitoring the Pension Systems, Madrid, European Commission 2007 XIX Conferenza SIEP Economia del capitale umano: Istituzioni, incentivi e valutazioni, Pavia st General Conference of the International Microsimulation Association, Vienna th EUROFRAME Conference on Economic policy issues in the EU Towards an ageing and globalizing Europe: Challenges for the European Social Model(s), University of Bologna st Meeting of the Society for the Study of Economic Inequality (ECINEQ), Palma de Mallorca 2005 XVII Conferenza SIEP Finanziamento del settore pubblico, University of Pavia. Other presentations CAPP Internal Seminars ( , 2011), University of Bologna (2005, 2007), PROMETEIA (2006), University of East Anglia ( ), University of Leeds (2009), Department of Work and Pension (2009), ISER (2010, 2011), London School of Economics (2009, 2010, 2011). Summer Schools and Courses 2011 Identification in Structural Econometrics (10-11 November), Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice (CEMMAP), London 2010 Advanced Structural Equation Modelling with MPlus (9-13 August), 43rd Essex Summer School in Social Science Data Analysis, University of Essex, Colchester 2010 Policy Evaluation Methods (20-23 April), Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice (CEMMAP), London 2004 Summer School of Econometrics, CiDE -University Residential Centre of Bertinoro (FO). 8

9 Scholarships, Honors and Awards ESRC fees-only PhD studentship, ISER, University of Essex, UK 2008 Award PREMIO IPOST: per la ricerca e lo studio (First Classified with Mazzaferro C.), IV edition 2008 Grant APULIA REGION: Borsa di studio di specializzazione e perfezionamento post lauream ed attività formative elevate all estero EUROPEAN UNION ERASMUS PROGRAMME SCHOLARSHIP, University of Montpellier (FR) UNIVERSITY OF MODENA AND REGGIO EMILIA: University bursaries. Other Professional activities EDITORIAL BOARD OF: HEG working paper series, Faculty of Medicine and Health Sciences, University of Norwich REFEREE FOR: Journal of Pension Economics and Finance, Politica Economica SUPERVISION OF RESEARCH STUDENTS: Mohamed Elsheemy (PhD student at University of Norwich); Emanuele Ciani, Irene Ferrari, Sara Flisi, Donatella Fresu (young researcher at the Centre for the Analysis of Public Policies). Language Skills ITALIAN: mother tongue ENGLISH: fluent both written and spoken (I.E.L.T.S. Certificate) FRENCH: fluent both written and spoken (D.A.L.F. Certificate). Computer Skills ECONOMETRIC AND STATISTICS: STATA, SAS, SPSS, MPLUS MATHS: MATHEMATICA, MAPLE PACKAGES: OFFICE, L A TEX, LYX. 9

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