Two Steps Forward, One Step Backtest

Transcription

1 Two Steps Forward, One Step Backtest The gold spot price ($/oz) ( Gold ) has experienced a healthy return year-to-date 2012, increasing 10.56% as of November 21, Many investors would believe that the gold miners, measured by the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index ( GDM ), would perform somewhat similarly. However, GDM has decreased by -7.37% over the same period. The diverging Gold and GDM returns have caused the Gold/GDM ratio to increase to as of November 21, Is there an opportunity to gain from trading Gold or GDM by understanding patterns in the Gold/GDM ratio? Gold Spot Price ($/oz) and NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index Ratio, 50- and 200-Day Moving Averages: Source: Bloomberg, between September 17, 1993 and November 21, ( Evaluation Period ) 1) First historical high Gold/GDM ratio, November 17, ) Second historical high Gold/GDM ratio, October 27, The Gold/GDM ratio was at its first historical high value of on November 17, 2000, during the Evaluation Period. Subsequently, the Gold/GDM ratio 50-day moving average crossed below the 200-day moving average on March 6, The Gold/GDM ratio 50-day moving average did not cross back above the 200-day moving average until November 14, Gold increased by 22.05% and GDM increased 86.55% between March 6, 2001 and November 14, A similar Gold/GDM ratio peak was observed again on October 27, 2008, during the Evaluation Period, where the Gold/GDM ratio was Afterward, the Gold/GDM ratio 50-day moving average crossed below the 200-day moving average on March 30, The Gold/GDM ratio 50-day moving average did not cross back above the 200-day moving

2 average until January 29, Gold increased by 18.02% and GDM increased by 12.08% between March 30, 2009 and January 29, Finally, the Gold/GDM ratio reached another high of on May 15, Did the Gold/GDM ratio reach another peak? The Gold/GDM ratio 50-day moving average crossed below the 200-day moving average on October 17, Gold Spot Price ($ $/oz) and NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index Values: Source: Bloomberg, between September 17, 1993 and November 21, How the Gold/GDM Ratio is Affected Percent Change in the Gold Spot Price ($/oz) More than GDM More than GDM Percent Change in the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index e e e More than Gold More than Gold Effect on Gold/GDM Ratio Potential Trades If you believe that the Gold/GDM ratio will decrease, you could consider one of the following pair trades: : 200% leveraged inverse exposure to goldd bullion

3 : 200% leveraged inverse exposure to gold bullion If you believe that the Gold/GDM ratio will increase, you could consider one of the following pair trades: : 200% leveraged inverse exposure to gold bullion S&P/TSX Global Gold Index correlation of daily returns with the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index was.9291 between September 29, 2000, and November 21, The inception date of the S&P/TSX Global Gold Index inception date was September 29, Do you want to try this trade? Use the Horizons Trading Simulator to place hypothetical trades with simulated funds using real market data. The views expressed herein are of a general nature and this Trade Idea is not and should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Before making any investment decision, please consult your investment advisor or advisors. ETF Performance as of October 31, 2012 ETF 1 mo 3 mo 6 mo YTD (2012) 1 yr 3 yr Since Inception Inception Date Annual Management Fee January 22, % January 22, % HGU June 26, % HGD June 26, % 1 This ETF does not seek to meet its investment objective over any period other than daily Wade Guenther, CFA ETF Research Analyst Horizons Exchange Traded Funds

4 Investment Objective The Horizons BetaPro COMEX Gold Bullion Bull Plus ETF ( ) and the Horizons BetaPro COMEX Gold Bullion Bear Plus ETF ( ) seek daily investment results equal to 200% the daily performance, or inverse daily performance, of COMEX Gold Bullion, before fees and expenses. and are denominated in Canadian dollars, as the U.S. dollar exposure of the underlying index is hedged daily. HGU Investment Objective The Horizons BetaPro S&P/TSX Global Gold Bull+ ETF ( HGU ) and the Horizons BetaPro S&P/TSX Global Gold Bear+ ETF ( HGD ) seek daily investment results equal to 200% the daily performance, or inverse daily performance, of the S&P/TSX Global Gold Index, before fees and expenses. The Index consists of securities of global gold sector issuers listed on the TSX, NYSE, NASDAQ and AMEX The views expressed herein may not necessarily be the views of AlphaPro Management Inc., Horizons ETFs Management (Canada) Inc. or Horizons Exchange Traded Funds Inc. All comments, opinions and views expressed are of a general nature and should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Before making any investment decision, please consult your investment advisor or advisors. Commissions, trailing commissions, management fees and expenses all may be associated with an investment in exchange traded products managed by AlphaPro Management Inc. and Horizons ETFs Management (Canada) Inc. (the Horizons Exchange Traded Products ). The Horizons Exchange Traded Products are not guaranteed, their values change frequently and past performance may not be repeated. Please read the prospectus before investing. The Horizons Exchange Traded Products include the Horizons Bull Plus and Bear Plus ETFs ( Plus ETFs ). The Plus ETFs, and certain other Horizons Exchange Traded Products, use leveraged investment techniques that magnify gains and losses and result in greater volatility in value. These Horizons Exchange Traded Products are subject to leverage risk and may be subject to aggressive investment risk and price volatility risk, which, where applicable, are described in their respective prospectuses. Each Plus ETF seeks a return, before fees and expenses, that is either 200% or -200% of the performance of a specified underlying index, commodity or benchmark (the Target ) for a single day. The indicated rates of return for the Horizons Exchange Traded Products in the performance tables are the historical annual compounded total returns including changes in per unit value and reinvestment of all dividends and distributions and do not take into account sales, redemption, distribution or optional charges or income taxes payable by any unitholder that would have reduced returns. Due to the compounding of daily returns, a Plus ETF s returns over periods other than one day will likely differ in amount and possibly direction from the performance of their respective Target(s) for the same period. Investors should monitor their holdings, as frequently as daily, to ensure that they remain consistent with their investment strategies. Standard & Poor s and S&P are registered trademarks of Standard and Poor s Financial Services LLC ( S&P ) and TSX is a registered trademark of TSX Inc. ( TSX ). These marks have been licensed for use by AlphaPro Management Inc. and Horizons ETFs Management (Canada) Inc. where applicable. The Horizons Exchange Traded Products are not sponsored, endorsed, sold, or promoted by S&P or TSX and their affiliated companies and none of these parties make any representation, warranty or condition regarding the

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