IE principal dimensions

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1 Income Dimension of Impact Evaluations IE principal dimensions Income Health Education Other Presented on 4 September, 2014 at ADB 3ie PIDS Conference, Manila

2 Impact Evaluation of Irrigation Distribution System and Management Improvement Project (IDSMIP) Project Project Background Agricultural sector in Azerbaijan The sector contributes to 15% of GDP, employs 42% of the labor force (2014). Increasing agriculture productivity is critical despite the foreign exchange earnings from the oil industry. Deteriorating irrigation and drainage infrastructure is impediment to transition to efficient agricultural sector.

3 Impact Evaluation of Irrigation Distribution System and Management Improvement Project Project Goal: Strengthening of the agricultural sector through increased output, productivity, and income levels. Project Purpose: to improve the effectiveness and financial viability of irrigation water distribution and management on 56,000 ha, through provision of support to Water Users Associations (WUA) and the State Amelioration and Irrigation Committee (SAIC)

4 Project Development Objective: (a) scaling-up user participation in irrigation management, notably through WUAs, and ensuring their professional and financial independence; (b) concentrating the investment priorities in agricultural water on improving the productivity of existing irrigation systems; (c) Promoting institutional reforms and capacity building of sector agencies responsible for irrigation system management. Irrigation Distribution System and Management Improving Project Azerbaijan

5 To achieve these objectives the project would primarily carry out: (a) Development of Water Users Associations (b) Rehabilitation of Irrigation and Drainage Infrastructure (22 WUAs, ha) (c) increased operational efficiency through an institutional development component. Irrigation Distribution System and Management Improving Project Azerbaijan

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8 Purpose of Evaluation: To assess whether there has been any change in household income levels resulting from the rehabilitation of the irrigation and drainage infrastructure and WUAs strengthening. Irrigation Distribution System and Management Improving Project Azerbaijan

9 Improved the Inhabitants living conditions Agricultural production Incomes of local people Productivity Arable Land Logic Model Increase in Water Supply Management Skills for Irrigation and Drainage System Physical Rehabilitation of Irrigation and Drainage System Institutional WUAs Strengthening Reform Irrigation Distribution System and Management Improving Project Azerbaijan

10 Impact Evaluation: baseline survey conducted in 2007 and the follow-up final impact study in 2013 quasi-experimental and longitudinal design: random sampling applied, first to settlements (villages) from the project/control areas and then households within them. Result: 11 Project WUAs and 11 Non-Project WUAs and about 1000 households have been chosen. WUA performance & socio-agro-economical assessment (SPSS, FARMOD) & Customer Satisfaction Survey (Citizen Report Cards) Irrigation Distribution System and Management Improving Project Azerbaijan

11 Key findings 208 WUAs from total 213 registered in project rayons amount of irrigation water supplied to WUAs increased almost 2 times an average 4 irrigations has been applied according to crop water norms for main crops by 82% of water users in rehabilitated schemes (2 BL). cultivated area increased on 25% crops yields increased in average on 17.7% in R- WUAs, on 4.5% in NR-WUAs 100% collection rate of ISF for government, for Rehabilitated WUAs - 81% in average. ISF rates increased 3-5 times in comparison with 2005 The Revenue Budget increased 4.4 times in R- WUAs, 2.3% times in NR-WUAs Irrigation Distribution System and Management Improving Project Azerbaijan

12 Key findings In project WUAs that have benefited from rehabilitation and modernization it has been carried out 91% of the planned O&M. The Administrations of Rehabilitated WUAs have spent money for O&M from WUA budget and in average amount that is 4 times greater than in the baseline year.. 78% of farmers in Rehabilitated WUAs are satisfied with irrigation services while it was only 23% in the baseline case Irrigation Distribution System and Management Improving Project Azerbaijan

13 Satisfaction with Irrigation Service (% respondents) Dimension of Service Rehabilitated WUAs Non-rehabilitated WUAs Satisfied Adequacy 82.1% 58.8% Timeliness 66.3% 45.2% Equity in access 69.5% 33.2% Performance of staff 69.8% 55.7% Overall satisfaction 78.2% 34.5% Partially Satisfied Adequacy 14.7% 23.2% Timeliness 24.5% 25.6% Equity in access 23.8% 28.9% Performance of staff 24.6% 29.1% Overall satisfaction 14.7% 34.8% Dissatisfied Adequacy 3.2% 18.0% Timeliness 9.2% 29.2% Equity in access 6.7% 37.9%

14 Crop Model: Relevant Production and Input Parameters and Financial Results SAC MMMC Unit Value Without With project Without With project (US$) YIELDS Wheat ton Fruits (existing Apple) ton Fruits (new Apple) ton Cotton ton Fodder ton Vegetables ton Livestock (milk) lts VALUE OF PRODUCTS Wheat US$/ton Fruits (existing Apple) US$/ton Fruits (new Apple) US$/ton Cotton US$/ton Fodder US$/ton Vegetables US$/ton Livestock (all) US$/ton COST OF PRODUCTION Wheat US$/ha Fruits (existing Apple) US$/ha Fruits (new Apple) US$/ha Cotton US$/ha Fodder US$/ha Vegetables US$/ha Livestock (all) US$/farm NET REVENUES Wheat US$/ha Fruits (existing Apple) US$/ha Fruits (new Apple) US$/ha Cotton US$/ha Fodder US$/ha Vegetables US$/ha Livestock (all) US$/farm

15 Without CONCEPT (AGGREGATED DATA) Project With Project Year after works are finished): 1 to Main Production Cereals , Fruits ,559 Fodder Vegetables Livestock Products 2,079 2,079 2,166 2,254 2,254 2,254 2,254 2,254 Sub-total Main Production 3,315 3,315 3,666 4,069 4,170 4,313 4,466 5,080 On-Farm Use Fodder Livestock Products Sub-Total On-Farm Use Net Value Of Production 3,286 3,286 3,626 4,022 4,122 4,265 4,418 5,032 Off Farm Employment Labor Costs INFLOWS 3,471 3,471 3,811 4,206 4,307 4,449 4,603 5,216 Production Cost Investment Seeds Chemicals Machinery (including fuel) Transport Costs Irrigation Costs Sub-total Investment Costs Operating Seeds Fodder Fertilizers Chemicals Machinery (including fuel) Livestock Products Transport Costs Irrigation Costs Livestock Inputs Sub-total Operating Costs Sub-Total Production Cost OUTFLOWS Cash Flow Before Self Financing 2,827 2,648 2,947 3,300 3,375 3,490 3,800 4,446 Net Financing Cash Flow After Self Financing 2,827 2,606 2,904 3,274 3,348 3,646 3,840 4,446 Sub-Total Change in Net Worth Farm Family Benefits 2,827 2,427 2,904 3,274 3,348 3,646 3,840 4,446 Returns per Family-Day of Labor

16 Post-completion/Next Phase Follow-up Irrigation Distribution System and Management Improvement Project, IDSMIP State Program on Amelioration and Water Farm Development for State Program on Social Economic Development of Regions State Program for Poverty Reduction and Sustainable Development (SPPRSD) for State Oil Fund financed construction of Takhtakurpu Reservoir on 600 ml US dollars Wheat production has been subsidized 80 ml US dollars.