MOOCs and Executive Education

Transcription

1 Jennifer Kay, Ph.D. Research Report Prepared for UNICON Presented at the Directors Conference, April 2013 (Updated October 2013) 1

2 Session Overview Environment History Players, Stakeholders and Business Models Disruptiveness What This Means for Exec. Ed. Survey Results Q/A, Your Thoughts and Suggestions Slide 2

3 What s the big deal? (courses certificates credit? degrees?) at scale MOOC: Massively Open Online Course Free (mostly) Semester long (changing) Online Innovative World class institutions and faculty Order of magnitude Slide 3

4 Executive and MOOCS Slide 4

5 Environment The cost of a college education continues to be in the US national spotlight Since 1985 the cost of a college education has increased more than 500% (while the consumer price index increased 115%)* US student loan debt exceeds credit card debt Global internet and broadband access has increased greatly 2011: 2.26B internet users, 589 million with fixed wire broadband (5.9B with mobile cellular and 1.6B with active mobile broadband subscriptions) ** This is a greater than 500% increase since 2000, when global internet users numbered 361K.*** * costs are soaring/ ** state of broadband 2012.pdf *** Slide 5

6 Online Has Grown Steadily Over 6.7 million students were taking at least one online course during the fall 2011 term, an increase of 570,000 students over the previous year. Thirty two percent of higher education students now take at least one course online. The proportion of chief academic leaders that say that online learning is critical to their long term strategy is at a new high of 69.1 percent (50% in 2002) To date, MOOCs are a very small part of this market 2.6 percent of higher education institutions currently have a MOOC (Massive Open Online Course), another 9.4 percent report MOOCs are in the planning stages. Changing Course: Ten Years of Tracking Online in the United States, Slide 6

7 A Brief Timeline of Distance Learning Innovations 1862 Pitman Shorthand training program brought cutting edge stenography via US Mail 1980s satellite television systems became cost effective for employee training and were embraced by industry 1985, National Technological University (NTU) started offering degree courses to employees at corporations and labs ion of distancelearning.com/ and A Journey to Legitimacy: The Historical Development of Distance through Technology by D. Casey 1892 U. of Chicago created first college level distance learning program 1923 ICS, started in 1890 to teach mine safety, had enrolled over 2.5M students 1970, Coastline College the first without a physical campus 1964, U. of WI, funded by Carnegie created the AIM project to identify and systematize distance learning practices, including multimedia 1993, Jones University offered online instruction in 5 bachelors and 24 masters, and was accredited by the Higher Learning Commission 2002, MIT launches OpenCourseWare in response to Fathom.com and other initiatives Slide FCC grants radio licenses to over 200 colleges (only one course offered by 1940) 1934 U. of Iowa broadcast courses by television 2005, WebCT and Blackboard merged under Blackboard brand

8 Open Developments Executive and MOOCS Slide 8 Timeline_p6.jpg

9 le.com/article /Major Players in the MOOC/ / Executive and MOOCS Slide 9

10 Executive and MOOCS Slide 10

11 Udacity Coursera edx Udemy Thrun (Stanford) Ng & Koller (Stanford) Argwal (MIT) Paid course platform, with some free For profit, 2012 For profit, 2012 Nonprofit, 2012 For profit, 2010 $21M venture funding >750K students $65M venture funding 4M+ students $60M+ funds, grants, gifts ~1M registered users $16M venture ~600K registered 6000 courses ~25 active courses Select faculty and industry partners Georgia Tech, SJSU, Google, ATT ~400 courses 80+ institutions 180K in one course (Philosophy, 2012) ~33 courses 28 universities 160K in one course (Circuits, 2012) Individual faculty Generated $15M since launch Top faculty earn $500K Slide 11

12 Student Demographics Executive and MOOCS Slide 12 beyond professional developmentcourseras big announcement in context/

13 Completion Patterns _patterns_in_moocs_graphical_view/ Lurkers people enroll but just observe or sample a few items at the most. Many of these students do not even get beyond registering for the MOOC or maybe watching part of a video. Drop Ins partially or fully active participants for a select topic within the course, but do not attempt to complete the entire course. Some use MOOCs informally to find content that help them meet course goals elsewhere. Passive Participants students who view a course as content to consume and expect to be taught. These students typically watch videos, perhaps take quizzes, but tend to not participate in activities or class discussions. Executive and MOOCS Slide 13 Active Participants These are the students who fully intend to participate in the MOOC, including consuming content, taking quizzes and exams, taking part in activities.

14 Activities Vary Platforms Udacity Coursera edx Udemy Blackboard Google Content Development & Delivery (inc. certificates) Udacity Coursera Univ. universityx Udemy* Faculty Content Creation Faculty Specialists/Consultants *more than 10,000 people have taken Udemy s course on how to design and teach a Udemy course Slide 14

15 US Provost Survey dehighered.com /news/survey/sk epticism abouttenure moocsand presidencysurvey provosts Slide 15

16 US Provost Survey ghered.com/news/s urvey/skepticismabout tenuremoocs andpresidency surveyprovosts Slide 16

17 Business Models are Emerging Corporate recruiting (job referrals, sponsored classes) al outsourcing/licensing of platforms, courses, content Freemium : Fee for certificate and/or credit and/or identity verification; also some free (independent), some fee (academic) Channeling participants into subsequent for fee courses and programs (loss leader) Slide 17

18 Industry Partners and Sponsors Executive and MOOCS Slide 18

19 Business Schools Join the Party (Coursera now has 45 business and management courses, 4 to 12 weeks long) Executive and MOOCS Slide /wharton puts first year mba courses online for free

20 Executive and MOOCS Slide /stanford b school jumps on the mooc bandwagon

21 Faculty are an Important Driver Prof. Mike Lenox, UVA Darden, Foundations of Business Strategy 6 week MOOC delivered on Coursera, March 2013, 90,000+ enrolled: As a teacher, I have been thrilled to see the reach and impact of my MOOC, Foundations of Business Strategy. Students from over 50 countries are participating including students from the Philippines, Australia, Rwanda, Croatia, UAE, Mexico, Egypt and Argentina among many others. I will have taught more than 5x as many students in a six week period than have graduated from the Darden School over its entire 50 year plus existence. Every day, I receive thanks from students for the opportunity to take the course many who are applying the concepts in their working lives as they take the course and who otherwise would not have access to such material. imminent shakeout disruptive innovation and higher education/ Slide 21

22 A cost leader (or leaders) will emerge catering to the mass market. They will leverage technology to provide an effective and efficient education. They will cater to the population who may not have had access to higher education thirty years ago. The emergence of the cost leader position will be bad news for the many for profit online universities that have arisen in recent years and for numerous non selective residential universities. This is where the shakeout will be most disruptive. This disruption will play out over years, if not decades, as struggling colleges fight to stay alive and student attitudes towards online education evolve. Retrenchment and growth of a group of elite differentiated players who compete globally for the best students. They will emphasize the benefits of a residential education and they will charge significant tuition premiums. They will be highly selective and highly sought after. Some will adopt niche positions catering to elite students of one type or another. They will leverage technology, but as a way to improve the efficacy of their residential programs. They will dabble in MOOCs, not as a source of significant revenue generation, but as a way to enhance their global brand and reach. The question for a traditional university will be which of these worlds it will sort. Slide 22 Lenox predicts market bifurcation: tes/darden/2013/03/29/t he imminent shakeoutdisruptive innovation andhigher education/

23 That said, Lenox points out: my MOOC does not replicate the Darden classroom experience at a Socratic case based school like Darden, we have been flipping the classroom for over 50 years learning that emerges from an engaged, real time discussion cannot be replicated on an online forum. the fear, and triumph, of presenting your ideas for scrutiny often at the bequest of the faculty member (what we refer to as a cold call ) is a powerful learning experience this type of engagement cannot be conducted asynchronously and it cannot be scaled Note: not all faculty active in MOOCs make this distinction imminent shakeout disruptive innovation and higher education/ Slide 23

24 Clay Christensen Weighs In On Disruption: The question is not just whether MOOCs are going to disrupt traditional education, but how. MOOCs do bear the early hallmarks of a disruptive innovation: Serves non consumers Marches upmarket Redefines quality We believe they are likely to evolve into a scale business : one that relies on the technology and data backbone of the medium to optimize and individualize learning opportunities for millions of students. universities are likely investing in MOOCs now because disruption theory is finally widely enough understood that astute leaders know how to identify and chase opportunities early. the mooc buzz where are they going really/ Slide 24

25 Christensen s Predictions over time, an approach where users exchange information from each other similar to Facebook (a facilitated network model ) will come to dominate online learning. likely to happen if the traditional degree becomes irrelevant and, as many predict,* learning becomes a continuous, on the job learning process the need for customization will drive us toward just in time mini courses. In this case, facilitated networks or adaptive learning platforms like Khan Academy and Knewton may actually be better positioned than MOOCs not unlike what happened in the car industry: The Ford Model T dominated the American car market until General Motors brought forth choice and variety. the mooc buzz where are they going really/ N. Harden, The End of the University as We Know It, In fifty years, if not much sooner, half of the roughly 4,500 colleges and universities now operating in the United States will have ceased to exist. american interest.com/article.cfm?piece=1352 Slide 25

26 Morten T. Hansen Weighs in On Exec Ed maybe just 10% of the executive education market is "safe" it will upend the rest of the market a few star professors who deliver the content online (the Khan's of the exec ed market) a hoard of "lower level" local instructors who will help with the breakouts. The traditional exec ed professor will be squeezed out. Slide 26

27 Hansen s Drivers Many companies have online learning platforms they need content for, creating demand; Spending a week in an exec ed program is consuming so much time that alternatives such as a hybrid online program look attractive; Ever better technologies make the online experience more appealing; Pressures on cost will lead to more adoption of online exec ed; Another reason for getting people together in an exec ed program that of networking can be done through online networking tool, so why meet? Slide 27

28 What About Our Audiences and Programs? Slide 28

29 Broad agreement this is a rapidly changing landscape and it is difficult to predict the future Opportunity for innovation, staying ahead of curve including capitalizing on press attention Opportunities to extend blended learning activities and possibly online learning in organizations Deepening engagement at scale Exec. Ed. Interviews Several institutions actively working on strategies work not complete Likely near term threat is to open enrollment (not custom) and skills based topics (not leadership or strategy) For example, Finance for Non financial Mangers Slide 29

30 Sent to ~13,000 past participants of executive education programs from five institutions MIT, Columbia, INSEAD, ITAM, University of Alberta Of these, 676 responses (5% response rate; range 2.5% to 7.3%) 241 (36%) of these responses were to a Spanish language survey Geographic location: 61 countries represented (English, n=414) 39% of respondents reside in the US, 7% in Mexico, and 3% each in France, Brazil, Switzerland, Canada, Germany, followed by 2% each Australia, Japan. Age (English, n=417) UNICON Survey (March 2013) 67% of respondents were between ages 30 and % were aged Under 30 and over 60 were 3% each, respectively Slide 30

31 Value of Online vs. In Person English language survey participants split in support for face to face versus blended learning (n=433) Slide 31

32 Value of Online vs. In Person Spanish language responses weighted somewhat more towards blended and less face to face (n=238) Slide 32

33 Why Enroll in Online? Lower cost online options are attractive, but they don t have to be free Certification is of interest Course credit mattered more in the Spanish language survey Which of the following conditions would make you MORE likely to enroll in an online Executive program? (check all that apply) Answer Options Response Percent English Response Percent Spanish It is lower cost than a similar face-to-face program 45.5% 47.5% It offers certification in a field 44.0% 39.9% I receive academic, graduate-level, or course credit 41.2% 66.0% My company sponsors my participation 34.8% 30.7% It offers a general certificate of completion 29.5% 48.7% It is free 24.0% 17.6% It could help me with a promotion 23.8% 26.9% Slide 33 (English, n=420, Spanish n=238)

34 Experiences to Date Most respondents had taken self paced online training (n=346, Spanish data similar) Slide 34

35 Participation in free university courses relatively low Awareness of MOOCs was about 30% (n=351) 94% of Spanish were unaware of free university courses MOOC type, specifically In the past year, have you enrolled in a free semester-long course offered by a university? (check all that apply) Answer Options Coursera Udacity edx Kahn Academy Udemity I don't have time to do these courses I am not interested in these courses I have never heard of these courses Response Percent English Response Percent Spanish 7.1% 2.5% 1.7% 0.0% 3.7% 1.0% 2.3% 0.5% 0.0% 0.5% 16.5% 2.0% 8.3% 2.0% 69.2% 93.5% Slide 35

36 For those who did enroll in free online courses (n=130), the completion rates were relatively high (54%) MOOC completion rates about ~7% Completion rates Slide 36

37 Suitability 52.1% of English language respondents felt online was highly or well suited for executive education (n=417) Slide 37

38 Suitability An even higher percentage (67.7%) of Spanish language respondents felt it was very well or well suited (n=192) Slide 38

39 Why or Why Not Learn Online? 228 (English) chose to comment on why or why not. Saving time was critical, as was quality Travel costs were frequently cited Networking and interactive learning were important Some subjects and goals were considered more appropriate for online than others Many felt like a combination of face to face and online provided the best option Slide 39

40 Online Highly or Well Suited Open Response Word Frequency (n=113): Slide 40

41 Online Not Well or Poorly Suited Open Response Word Frequency (n=53): Slide 41

42 Some Thoughts and Take Aways Change won t happen overnight, but it is happening Important space to watch / explore for learning and delivery innovations Space where you can support your clients Strategy Unmet needs Blended learning (meeting customer needs + preserving margins) Implications of global reach not clear may be a larger force than those currently in play Cost implications not clear quality education remains expensive Cohort experience, in person learning are valued Think from your faculty members point of view Slide 42

43 Slide 43 Additions? Reflections? Questions?