Fra the great moderation til den lange stagnasjon. -NE kunnskap 11. oktober

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1 Fra the great moderation til den lange stagnasjon -NE kunnskap 11. oktober

2 Elementer A) Modne & fremvoksende økonomier råvareboom B) Konjunkturer C) Europas spesielle utfordringer D) Finansmarkedene - relative verdier E) To ord om Norge F) Jens Stoltenbergs boligprisoppgave G) Til- eller fraflytting?

3 A) Modne & fremvoksende økonomier - deler felles ressurser, handel og finansmarkeder - Modne økonomier (+2%=trend) 1 mrd mennesker, lav vekst men halvparten av verdensøkonomien Lav vekst også biologisk Fremvoksende økonomier (+4%=trend) 6 mrd mennesker, sterk vekst Høy vekst begrenset av naturressurser Lav kapasitetsutnytting og lavere renter enn de nye lavere normalrentene Høye renter and stram politikk Høy lønnsvekst Lav lønnsvekst, men handel, mangel på råvarer, klimautfordringer og felles finansmarkeder

4 De fremvoksende

5 Kina vil få en avkjøling

6 Anekdoter China is turning into a buyer s market for luxury cars as dealers for Bayerische Motoren Werke AG (BMW), Daimler AG (DAI) and Volkswagen AG (VOW) s Audi offer discounts to maintain sales as demand cools. In Beijing, BMW dealerships are giving markdowns of as much as 19 percent on a 3- series car, while some Mercedes dealers are selling the C-Class Elegance model at 20 percent less than the suggested retail price, according to cheshi.com, a pricing guide tracking more than 3,000 dealers in the country.

7 Riskscenario: Finanssystemet krakker

8 De modne: vekstanslagene er på vei ned

9 Trend har vært og trolig fortsatt er lav

10 USAs nasjonalinntekt per innbygger

11 Lavere trendvekst i inntekter enn i produksjon

12 The age of cheap energy is over. The only question now is, will the extra rent from dearer energy go to an ever smaller circle of producers, or will it be directed back into the domestic economies of the consumers, with the added benefits of increased environmental sustainability? Mr. Tanaka, Executive Director of the International Energy Agency, speaking at the Bridge Forum Dialogue in Luxembourg on 13 April 2011

13 Svakere handelsbalanse ett år gir renteutgifter året etter

14 En handelsbalanse som plages av to forhold, svak konkurranseevne mot Kina og at den jevne amerikaner er oljeholiker

15 JLA på tur Holding China to Account By PAUL KRUGMAN Published: October 2, 2011 The dire state of the world economy reflects destructive actions on the part of many players. Still, the fact that so many have behaved badly shouldn t stop us from holding individual bad actors to account. And that s what Senate leaders will be doing this week, as they take up legislation that would threaten sanctions against China and other currency manipulators. You are incredibly blind! The US could just raise gasoline taxes to Norwegian levels and most of your trade deficit problems would be solved. China is not the issue, but the scape goat. Americans, even your Nobel price winning economists, are oilaholics who will go to any length to excuse America's addiction problem.

16 I sum: Trendvekst

17 B) Konjunkturene: Når alle strammer inn samtidig går det dårligere Tabellen viser ventet endring i det strukturelle budsjettet i underskuddet (fra april) for utvalgte land. Bedring betyr innstramning.

18 C) Consensus på samme nivå som oss

19 UK

20 Quo Vadis?

21 Dexia R.I.P. The governments of France, Belgium and Luxembourg reached agreement on Sunday on a rescue package for Dexia, which will be put to the stricken Franco-Belgian bank's board later in the day for approval. CNBC.com "The governments... have reaffirmed their solidarity in finding a solution to secure the future of Dexia [DEXI.BR UNCH (0) ]," said a statement from the office of Belgium's caretaker Prime Minister Yves Leterme. "The suggested solution, which is also the result of intense consultations with all partners involved, will be submitted to Dexia's Board of Directors for approval." Dexia, the first bank to fall victim to the euro zone sovereign debt crisis, was forced to seek government help this week after a liquidity crunch hobbled the lender and sent its shares into a tailspin. The bank's implosion has added to investors' worries about the solidity of European banks and has coincided with increased European Union talk about coordinated action to recapitalise banks across the continent. "The need to rescue Dexia is symbolic of the uncertainty that characterizes the banking sector," said Eric Galiegue, president of Valquant, an independent research firm. "Who would have imagined that a bank so linked with European construction would end up being dismantled?" Some investors also view the response to Dexia's woes as a test of European governments' ability to take decisive action to rescue banks if the eurozone debt crisis worsens. Belgium's federal government and its regions have clashed over the bank's fate, with the country's national government favouring a nationalization of its Belgian retail unit but facing stiff opposition from regions who fear the loss of 1 billion euros they contributed to an initial Dexia rescue.

22 Franske kommuner er sårbare French municipalities, which received a 5bn financing package after the financial crisis hit in 2008, are themselves taking action. Last month the Association of French Mayors, which represents nearly all of France s 36,000 communes, said its members wanted to create a local government funding agency belonging to them. Their suggestion, which would require approval from French lawmakers, is for an entity, capitalised and guaranteed by the local governments, to target a quarter of the amount borrowed each year, as well as a top triple-a rating. I think what is really worrying for the moment is that they are at the end of the chain, said Yves Millardet, a specialist in public finance at French investment bank Natixis, who compiled an exploratory report on the proposed local government funding agency. If you are an international company you can try the bond markets, use currency swaps, or try international banks if there are problems with refinancing, said Mr Millardet. But if you are a mayor in an area with say 15,000 inhabitants, you are not going to German or Japanese banks.

23 Dette bør bli bra BERLIN - Germany and France stand ready to recapitalize banks and want to do so according to common criteria, Chancellor Angela Merkel said on Sunday. "We are determined to do the necessary to secure the recapitalization of our banks," Merkel said at a joint news conference with French President Nicolas Sarkozy in Berlin. "Germany and France want the same criteria to be applied, and criteria that are accepted by all sides," she said. "We will ask all relevant authorities... to check what we are doing is sustainable." "We are not going into details today, we will present a complete package" for stabilizing the euro zone at the end of the month, Merkel added.

24 men foreløpig ingen detaljer The only concrete statement they made, however, was Ms Merkel s announcement that we are determined to do whatever is necessary for the recapitalisation of our banks. There was no sign that the two governments had yet managed to resolve their differences over whether the cash for such an exercise will come from national treasuries or from the 440bn European Financial Stability Facility, the eurozone rescue fund. Ms Merkel also refused to be drawn on their plans to deal withthe ongoing Greek financial crisis, saying simply: We are working closely together on Greece. She added that they were still waiting for a report from the troika of officials from the International Monetary Fund, the European Commission and the European Central Bank, on how to meet a growing financing gap in Athens.

25 Hva er utfordringen? Frankrike vil gjerne at EU står for mest mulig av rekapitaliseringen av de franske og spanske banker. Nord-Europeere vil at det enkelte land må ta ansvar for sine egne banker The cost of protecting German government bonds against default surged to a fresh record this week. Credit default swaps reached almost 122 basis points on Tuesday, meaning it would cost the equivalent of $122,000 annually to insure $10m worth of German paper for five years. Buying CDS protection on Germany can equate to betting that it will have to pick up the tab for bailing out Europe s so-called peripheral nations, analysts say. The question of how much support Germany is willing to provide to weaker eurozone members has been a point of contention between European politicians, with fierce debate over the scale and method of bail-outs taking place. This week s reports on moves to recapitalise Europe s ailing banks appear to have added pressure to European government credits. The fragile banking system was one of the factors which prompted Moody s, the credit rating agency, to announce late on Friday it was reviewing Belgium s Aa1 sovereign credit rating. Other factors it cited were the deteriorating fiscal position because of flagging economic growth, and overall concerns linked to the eurozone crisis.

26 Italienske kredittvurderinger Fitch Ratings has downgraded the Italian Republic s (Italy) foreign and local currency Long-term Issuer Default Ratings (IDRs) from AA- (AA minus) to A+ (A plus) and the short-term rating from F1+ to F1. The Outlook on the long-term ratings is Negative. The Country Ceiling of AAA has also been affirmed. The downgrade reflects the intensification of the Euro zone crisis that constitutes a significant financial and economic shock which has weakened Italy s sovereign risk profile. As Fitch has cautioned previously, a credible and comprehensive solution to the crisis is politically and technically complex and will take time to put in place and to earn the trust of investors. In the meantime, the crisis has adversely impacted financial stability and growth prospects across the region. However, the high level of public debt and fiscal financing requirement along with the low rate of potential growth rendered Italy especially vulnerable to such an external shock. While the recent supplementary budget substantially strengthened the fiscal consolidation effort, the initially hesitant response by the Italian government to the spread of contagion has also eroded market confidence in its capacity to effectively navigate Italy through the Eurozone crisis. Italy s sovereign credit profile remains relatively strong and is supported by a budgetary position that compares favourably to several European and high-grade peers. As a sovereign and nation it is solvent. Moreover, as the third largest economy in the euro zone, Italy is a core member of EMU and the rating incorporates Fitch s judgement that, in extremis, the ECB and/or EFSF/IMF will provide support to prevent a self-fulfilling liquidity crisis.

27 Spania også The process of rebalancing the Spanish economy is well underway but is not yet complete and Fitch expects it to weigh more heavily on economic growth over the medium term. The agency projects annual economic growth to remain below 2% through to 2015 and unemployment to remain high. Despite the important measures already adopted by the government, further structural reform will be necessary to further enhance the competitiveness and productivity of the economy. The fundamental weakness of the labour market, as underscored by an unemployment rate in excess of 20%, is a material rating weakness relative to European and high-grade peers. Nonetheless, while the recovery over the medium term will be lacklustre, Fitch expects the long-term (ie, post-2015) potential growth rate to exceed the average for the euro area as a whole. Despite the weakened risk profile, Fitch views Spanish sovereign solvency as secure. Under the agency s baseline scenario, the debt to GDP ratio will peak at 72% of GDP in 2013, well below the forecast euro area average of 89% in Spain s AA- rating reflects strong fundamentals: a diversified, highvalue-added economy and strong governance. The government s policy response has been credible and aggressive. The Negative Outlook reflects the risks associated with a further intensification of the euro area financial crisis, as well as possible material fiscal slippage and to a lesser extent contingent liabilities from the financial sector. A material deviation from the government s fiscal targets and failure to stabilise the government debt to GDP ratio from 2013 would place negative pressure on the rating. Substantial progress has been made in the restructuring of the banking sector and Fitch has not revised its estimate of the ultimate fiscal cost which is moderate and is consistent with the current rating.

28 Kredittspreader vil si noe om hvor sterk oppgangen blir

29 D) Verdivurderinger

30 Børsen +4,7% årlig siden 1929, 0 siden 1998

31

32

33 E) Norge

34 Oljemarkedene

35 Hva gjør Olsen-banden?

36 F) Exam oecon Stoltenberg om hva som bestemmer bruktboligpriser Første trinn: Husleier Andre trinn: Nåverdi

37 Kjøttvekta

38 G) Markedene = stigende eller fallende kontantstrøm? Visteleet 4, H0302, 4070 Randaberg Fully furnished apartment with one bedroom Velholdt enebolig, Skallelv, Vadsø kommune, Finnmark Viser 9 av 9 bilder - se store bilder Viser 9 av 19 bilder - se store bilder Se fra lufta Se i kart Prisinformasjon Leie pr måned ,- Pris på finansiering Pris på innboforsikring Se fra lufta Se i kart Prisinformasjon Leie pr måned 6 000,- Pris på finansiering Pris på innboforsikring Depositum ,- Leie inkluderer Kommunale utgifter

39 Jævla utleninga, flyktninger, eventyrere og Romeo

40 Disclosures This report has been prepared for information purposes only by Terra Markets, registered in Norway under number NO (the Register of Business Enterprises), under supervision of the Financial Supervisory Authority of Norway (Finanstilsynet). This report is based on information obtained from public sources that Terra Markets believes to be reliable but has not independently verified, and Terra Markets makes no guarantee, representation or warranty as to its accuracy or completeness. Any opinions expressed herein reflect Terra Markets judgment at the time of preparing the report and are subject to change without notice. This report is intended for use only by those investors to whom it is made available by Terra Markets and no part of this report may be reproduced in any manner or used other than as intended without prior written permission from Terra Markets. The report is issued subject to the General Business Terms for Terra Markets and information about the terms is available at Terra Markets is a member of The Norwegian Securities Dealers Association, which has issued recommendations and market standards for security companies. This document has been prepared in accordance with these guidelines. The Association s website where the recommendations and market standards can be found is: This report is not an offer to buy or sell any security or other financial instrument or to participate in any investment strategy. No liability whatsoever is accepted for any direct or indirect loss or expense arising from the use of this report. Distribution of research reports or other investment advice is restricted by law in certain jurisdictions. Persons in possession of this report should seek further guidance regarding such restrictions before distributing this report. Analyst certification The analyst(s) who has (have) prepared this report, hereby certify that notwithstanding the existence of any such potential conflicts of interests referred to later in the disclaimer, the views expressed in this report accurately reflect our personal view about the companies and securities covered by this report. I/We further certify that I/we have not been, nor are or will be receiving any direct or indirect compensation related to the specific recommendations or views contained in this report. Recommendation structure Company reports Terra Markets recommendations are based on a six-month time horizon and absolute performance adjusted for risk. Near-term dividends are included into return. The table below shows our general guidelines for determining our recommendations: Risk Buy / Strong Buy Hold Reduce / Sell Low > 10% 2% - 10% < 2% Medium > 15% 3% - 15% < 3% High > 30% 5% - 30% < 5% The percentages are defined as an upside to our price target plus eventual dividends within six months. Whether a Buy or Strong Buy / Reduce or Sell recommendation is given, depends on the analyst s conviction in the case. Price targets are based on a combination of several valuation methods. The most frequently used are the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF), Sum Of The Parts (SOTP) and relative valuation methods, depending on the nature of the company. Our risk assessments range from high risk to medium risk and low risk and are based on a subjective assessment of the following factors: 1) volatility in the share price, 2) liquidity in the share, 3) strength of the balance sheet, 4) the absolute earnings level and trend and 5) estimate risk. Recommendation distribution as of July 7, 2010 Company reports Strong Buy Buy Hold Reduce Sell Total % of total 6% 64% 22% 6% 1% Corporate clients % of total 15% 74% 7% 0% 4% The table above shows recommendation distribution for all company reports issued during the last three months. Terra Markets plans to update its recommendations on the companies covered: 1) when new accounting figures are released, 2) if any material news on the company or industry is released, 3) in other important instances.

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42 Fra Kahn NYFed 28sep20011 With the revised data, we see that productivity growth since 2004 has been a mere 1.65 percent annualized, well below the 3.2 percent during the prior eight years. Moreover, the model s other two key inputs growth in real labor compensation and growth in consumption relative to hours of work have also slowed considerably. This means that potential GDP growth is in the vicinity of 2.5 percent, and has been there for the last eight years. Providing a longer historical context, the next chart shows that the model associates the post-2004 behavior of productivity with the same low-growth regime that persisted from 1973 to 1997.