The Theory of Change
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1 18th International Meeting of Mine Action National Programme Directors and UN Advisers Cooperation, Standards & Tools The Theory of Change and its application to mine action Alastair McAslan Strathfillan Consultancy
2
3 What is DFID mine action trying to achieve. what are the intended security, humanitarian and development outcomes?
4 What is DFID mine action trying to achieve. what are the intended security, humanitarian and development outcomes? How can DFID s mine action projects best achieve these intended outcomes?
5 What is DFID mine action trying to achieve. what are the intended security, humanitarian and development outcomes? How can DFID s mine action projects best achieve these intended outcomes? The three main themes of the policy: (1) Value for Money; (2) Innovation; and (3) Understanding the context and assumptions of each project.
6 Agenda What is the Theory of Change? How is it being used in mine action by DFID? What are the lessons learned?
7 What is a theory?
8 What is a theory? Theory of evolution
9 What is a theory? Theory of evolution Theory of relativity
10 What is a theory? Theory of evolution Theory of relativity Big Bang theory
11 What is a theory? Theory of evolution Theory of relativity Big Bang theory Theory of everything
12 What is a theory?
13 What is a theory?.. a system of ideas, procedures and assumptions used to produce a result Oxford English Dictionary
14 What is change?
15 What is change? In the context of development, change refers to the long term intended outcomes and impact of a development programme e.g. eradicating extreme hunger and poverty
16 So the Theory of Change is.. a system of ideas, procedures and assumptions used to produce a long term development outcome
17 So the Theory of Change is.. a system of ideas, procedures and assumptions used to produce a long term development outcome For DFID mine action, the Theory of Change is.. a logical and transparent system of ideas, mine action activities and explicit assumptions which aim to achieve DFID s mine action goals
18 Mine action theory Inputs Processes (Activities) Output(s) Outcome i.e. Change Mine risk education Non-technical survey Technical survey Clearance Formal handover of cleared land Update IMSMA records
19 Mine action theory Inputs Processes (Activities) Output(s) Outcome i.e. Change Cleared land Communities briefed that land is safe to use Signed handover of documents Updated records in IMSMA Development partner(s) briefed & engaged
20 Mine action theory Inputs Processes (Activities) Output(s) Outcome i.e. Change Cleared land used productively Reduced fear of harm to communities National / local authorities take responsibility for cleared land
21 The real world.
22 The real world. Activities Survey & clearance Outputs Land declared safe through survey & clearance Outcomes (i.e. Change) Impacted communities feel safer, leading to increased well-being Mine Risk Education Coordination between MACC, IPs & development partners Communities aware of risks from mines & ERW Mine action enables follow-on development activities Measurable progress towards Ottawa Treaty compliance, reducing human suffering Former contaminated land used productively by impacted communities, leading to improved livelihoods Impacted communities have increased access to basic services provided by national/ provincial authorities or NGOs
23 The real world. Activities Survey & clearance Outputs Land declared safe through survey & clearance Outcomes (i.e. Change) Impacted communities feel safer, leading to increased well-being Mine Risk Education Coordination between MACC, IPs & development partners Communities aware of risks from mines & ERW Mine action enables follow-on development activities Measurable progress towards Ottawa Treaty compliance, reducing human suffering Former contaminated land used productively by impacted communities, leading to improved livelihoods Impacted communities have increased access to basic services provided by national/ provincial authorities or NGOs
24 The real world. Activities Survey & clearance Outputs Land declared safe through survey & clearance Outcomes (i.e. Change) Impacted communities feel safer, leading to increased well-being Mine Risk Education Coordination between MACC, IPs & development partners Communities aware of risks from mines & ERW Mine action enables follow-on development activities Measurable progress towards Ottawa Treaty compliance, reducing human suffering Former contaminated land used productively by impacted communities, leading to improved livelihoods Impacted communities have increased access to basic services provided by national/ provincial authorities or NGOs
25 The real world. Activities Survey & clearance Outputs Land declared safe through survey & clearance Outcomes (i.e. Change) Impacted communities feel safer, leading to increased well-being Mine Risk Education Coordination between MACC, IPs & development partners Communities aware of risks from mines & ERW Mine action enables follow-on development activities Measurable progress towards Ottawa Treaty compliance, reducing human suffering Former contaminated land used productively by impacted communities, leading to improved livelihoods Impacted communities have increased access to basic services provided by national/ provincial authorities or NGOs
26 Understanding the context
27 Understanding the context Programmes and projects must fit the national and local context
28 Understanding the context Programmes and projects must fit the national and local context Context: e.g. the security situation, political will, socioeconomic needs, terrain and weather, ethnic, tribal and religious differences must be analysed and their impact and influence on the programme or project must be understood by the contractor
29 Understanding the context Programmes and projects must fit the national and local context Context: e.g. the security situation, political will, socioeconomic needs, terrain and weather, ethnic, tribal and religious differences must be analysed and their impact and influence on the programme or project must be understood by the contractor Having analysed each factor, the contractor must record his/her conclusion in the form of an assumption
30 Examples of explicit assumptions
31 Examples of explicit assumptions The security situation will remain favourable for the duration of the project.
32 Examples of explicit assumptions The security situation will remain favourable for the duration of the project. Cleared land will not be captured / grabbed by powerful groups.
33 Examples of explicit assumptions The security situation will remain favourable for the duration of the project. Cleared land will not be captured / grabbed by powerful groups. Separate funding will be provided for follow-on development projects.
34 Risk assessment For each assumption, the designer should then analyse the risk of the assumption not happening.
35 Risk assessment For each assumption, the designer should then analyse the risk of the assumption not happening. This should take the form of a formal risk assessment; i.e. (1) What is the likelihood of an assumption not happening? (2) What would be the impact of an assumption not happening? (3) How can the likelihood be reduced? (4) How can the impact be mitigated?
36 A quick review.
37 Inputs Activities Outputs Outcomes Impact UK funding channelled through IPs Survey & clearance Land declared safe through survey & clearance Impacted communities feel safer, leading to increased well-being HMG diplomacy staff time International obligations, UK Govt policies, Mine Risk Education Communities aware of risks from mines & ERW Measurable progress towards Ottawa Treaty compliance, reducing human suffering Former contaminated land used productively by impacted communities, leading to improved livelihoods Poverty reduction & improved physical security leading to better livelihoods & progress to MDGs Information & lessons learned Coordination between MACC, IPs & development partners Mine action enables follow-on development activities Impacted communities have increased access to basic services provided by national/ provincial authorities or NGOs
38 Inputs Activities Outputs Outcomes Impact UK funding channelled through IPs Survey & clearance Land declared safe through survey & clearance Impacted communities feel safer, leading to increased well-being HMG diplomacy staff time International obligations, UK Govt policies, Mine Risk Education Communities aware of risks from mines & ERW Measurable progress towards Ottawa Treaty compliance, reducing human suffering Former contaminated land used productively by impacted communities, leading to improved livelihoods Poverty reduction & improved physical security leading to better livelihoods & progress to MDGs Information & lessons learned Coordination between MACC, IPs & development partners Mine action enables follow-on development activities Impacted communities have increased access to basic services provided by national/ provincial authorities or NGOs Mine action processes (the theory )
39 Inputs Activities Outputs Outcomes Impact UK funding channelled through IPs Survey & clearance Land declared safe through survey & clearance Impacted communities feel safer, leading to increased well-being HMG diplomacy staff time International obligations, UK Govt policies, Mine Risk Education Communities aware of risks from mines & ERW Measurable progress towards Ottawa Treaty compliance, reducing human suffering Former contaminated land used productively by impacted communities, leading to improved livelihoods Poverty reduction & improved physical security leading to better livelihoods & progress to MDGs Information & lessons learned Coordination between MACC, IPs & development partners Mine action enables follow-on development activities Impacted communities have increased access to basic services provided by national/ provincial authorities or NGOs Mine action processes (the theory ) Security, humanitarian & development changes
40 Inputs Activities Outputs Outcomes Impact UK funding channelled through IPs Survey & clearance Land declared safe through survey & clearance Impacted communities feel safer, leading to increased well-being HMG diplomacy staff time International obligations, UK Govt policies, Mine Risk Education Communities aware of risks from mines & ERW Measurable progress towards Ottawa Treaty compliance, reducing human suffering Former contaminated land used productively by impacted communities, leading to improved livelihoods Poverty reduction & improved physical security leading to better livelihoods & progress to MDGs Information & lessons learned Coordination between MACC, IPs & development partners Mine action enables follow-on development activities Impacted communities have increased access to basic services provided by national/ provincial authorities or NGOs ASSUMPTIONS Security situation is favourable Contractor is accredited in a timely manner NMAA/MACC prioritises mine action activities Security situation is favourable Assets not misappropriated MACC provides QA & QC in a timely manner Cleared land not captured/ grabbed by powerful groups Development partners provided with funding MRE messages lead to safer behaviour by communities Lessons learned improve VfM of follow-on projects Enhanced national ownership of mine action programme National mine action is sustainable
41 ASSUMPTIONS Security situation is favourable Security situation is favourable Cleared land not captured/ grabbed by powerful groups Lessons learned improve VfM of follow-on projects Contractor is accredited in a timely manner NMAA/MACC prioritises mine action activities Assets not misappropriated MACC provides QA & QC in a timely manner Development partners provided with funding MRE messages lead to safer behaviour by communities Enhanced national ownership of mine action programme National mine action is sustainable
42 ASSUMPTIONS Security situation is favourable Security situation is favourable Cleared land not captured/ grabbed by powerful groups Lessons learned improve VfM of follow-on projects Contractor is accredited in a timely manner NMAA/MACC prioritises mine action activities Assets not misappropriated MACC provides QA & QC in a timely manner Development partners provided with funding MRE messages lead to safer behaviour by communities Enhanced national ownership of mine action programme National mine action is sustainable
43 ASSUMPTIONS Security situation is favourable Contractor is accredited in a timely manner NMAA/MACC prioritises mine action activities Assets not stolen / misappropriated MACC provides QA & QC in a timely manner Cleared land is not captured / grabbed by powerful groups Development partners provided with funding MRE messages lead to safer behaviour by communities Lessons learned provide VfM of follow-on projects Enhanced national ownership of mine action programme National mine action is sustainable
44 ELEMENTS OF RISK Security situation is favourable Contractor is accredited in a timely manner NMAA/MACC prioritises mine action activities Assets not stolen / misappropriated MACC provides QA & QC in a timely manner Cleared land is not captured / grabbed by powerful groups Development partners provided with funding MRE messages lead to safer behaviour by communities Lessons learned provide VfM of follow-on projects Enhanced national ownership of mine action programme National mine action is sustainable
45 Risk assessment ELEMENTS OF RISK PROBABILITY IMPACT MITIGATING ACTIONS Security situation is not favourable Medium High Will slow down and possibly stop survey, clearance and MRE in affected areas Prioritise work in areas likely to remain secure Contractor is not accredited in a timely manner Low High No operational mine action can occur until accreditation is given Contract to be delayed until accreditation is awarded NMAA/MACC does not prioritises mine action activities Low Medium Mine action might not address the perceived national needs and expectations Contractor to propose priorities to NMAA/MACC & get their approval Assets stolen / misappropriated Low Medium Will slow down and possibly stop survey, clearance and MRE Continuously monitor threat and provide appropriate security MACC does not provide QA & QC in a timely manner Medium Medium Cleared land cannot be handed over until MACC conducts QC Contractor to brief input information into IMSMA & brief communities Cleared land is captured / grabbed by powerful groups Low High / Medium Will seriously undermine the development outcomes of the project Prioritise future work to reduce likelihood of future land grabbing Development partners not provided with funding Low Medium Will undermine the development outcomes of the project DFID Country Office to assist contractor MRE messages do not lead to safer behaviour by communities Low High Insecurity of impacted communities will continue Review, and if necessary revise MRE activities and materials Lessons learned do not provide VfM of follow-on projects Low Medium Will undermine DFID s commitment to the country mine action programme Contractor to review and if necessary revise procedures No enhanced national ownership of programme Low Medium Will undermine DFID s commitment to the country mine action programme Evaluate national political will and organisational structure National mine action is not sustainable Medium Medium Will undermine DFID s commitment to the country mine action programme Evaluate national political will and organisational structure
46 Use of Theory of Change by DFID mine action
47 Use of Theory of Change by DFID mine action (1) DFID mine action policy supported by ToC diagram
48 Use of Theory of Change by DFID mine action (1) DFID mine action policy supported by ToC diagram (2) Scoping studies of potential country projects supported by ToC diagram
49 Use of Theory of Change by DFID mine action (1) DFID mine action policy supported by ToC diagram (2) Scoping studies of potential country projects supported by ToC diagram (3) Contractors tenders must include a ToC diagram and narrative
50 Use of Theory of Change by DFID mine action (1) DFID mine action policy supported by ToC diagram (2) Scoping studies of potential country projects supported by ToC diagram (3) Contractors tenders must include a ToC diagram and narrative (4) Contractors ToC diagrams and narratives are a key part of the tender evaluation process
51 Use of Theory of Change by DFID mine action (1) DFID mine action policy supported by ToC diagram (2) Scoping studies of potential country projects supported by ToC diagram (3) Contractors tenders must include a ToC diagram and narrative (4) Contractors ToC diagrams and narratives are a key part of the tender evaluation process (5) Project ToC of selected contractor should provide the basis of project monitoring and evaluation requirements
52 Lessons learned
53 Lessons learned (1) ToC challenges the traditional way of doing things in mine action
54 Lessons learned (1) ToC challenges the traditional way of doing things in mine action (2) ToC diagrams are useful to communicate the contractor s project design, i.e. how the inputs will become outcomes
55 Lessons learned (1) ToC challenges the traditional way of doing things in mine action (2) ToC diagrams are useful to communicate the contractor s project design, i.e. how the inputs will become outcomes (3) ToC thinking encourages contractors to make their assumptions explicit
56 Lessons learned (1) ToC challenges the traditional way of doing things in mine action (2) ToC diagrams are useful to communicate the contractor s project design, i.e. how the inputs will become outcomes (3) ToC thinking encourages contractors to make their assumptions explicit (4) ToC provides a link between strategic and operational plans
57 Lessons learned (1) ToC challenges the traditional way of doing things in mine action (2) ToC diagrams are useful to communicate the contractor s project design, i.e. how the inputs will become outcomes (3) ToC thinking encourages contractors to make their assumptions explicit (4) ToC provides a link between strategic and operational plans (5) ToC provides a framework for developing an effective M&E regime
58 Questions?
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