MTPL BI Claims Development Patterns in Various EU Markets

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1 MTPL BI Claims Development Patterns in Various EU Markets

2 SECTION A Comparison of Compensation 2

3 Fatalities 41-year old male, employee, annual net income 40,000 Survivors: Spouse 2 children (ages 6 and 9) 1 parent 1 brother Germany France Italy UK Spain Damage in Total EUR Economic Damage EUR Non-Economic Damage EUR 3 Source: Gen Re A comparison of compensation for personal injury claims in Europe, January 2014

4 Tetraplegia 41-year old male, employee, annual net income 40,000 Survivors: Spouse 2 children (ages 6 and 9) Tetraplegia (complete paralysis of all four limbs) Germany France Italy UK Spain Damage in Total EUR Economic Damage EUR Non-Economic Damage EUR 4 Source: Gen Re A comparison of compensation for personal injury claims in Europe, January 2014

5 SECTION B Economic Factors 5

6 General Liability claims and macro variables Nominal growth US Canada UK Germany France Italy Compound annual growth rates General Liability claims 7.5% 10.0% 8.9% 5.5% 6.7% 13.9% Nominal GDP 6.8% 7.0% 8.3% 4.4% 6.6% 9.7% Consumer price index 4.3% 4.2% 5.2% 2.6% 4.4% 7.1% Wage index 4.7% 4.8% 7.2% 2.5% 6.2% 8.4% Healthcare expenses 9.0% 8.9% 9.9% 5.2% 7.9% NA Ratio of claims growth to growth in Nominal GDP Consumer price index Wage index Healthcare expenses NA Claims growth is based on calendar-year claims incurred 6 Source: Swiss Re, Economic Research & Consulting

7 7 Major economic determinants

8 Healthcare nursing care 41-year old male, employee, annual net income 40,000 Survivors: Spouse 2 children (ages 6 and 9) Tetraplegia (complete paralysis of all four limbs) ,028, ,318, ,168, , ,529 Germany France Italy UK Spain Damage in Total EUR Economic Damage EUR Non-Economic Damage EUR Nursing care EUR Source: Gen Re A comparison of compensation for personal injury claims in Europe, January 2014

9 Other economic determinants Real Discount Rate Forum shopping Rome II Government expenditure Maintenance needs for dependents Indexation of Annuities Mortality tables/ longevity 9

10 GDP per capita UK 39.3 Germany 45.1 France 41.4 Italy 34.6 Spain 29.1 Croatia 13.5 Poland 13.4 US$ 000 s 10 Source: World Bank

11 Current Motor Bodily Injury Limits of Indemnity UK Unlimited Germany 100 France 100 Italy 10/25 Spain 70 Croatia 5.6 Poland 5 EUR millions 11

12 Long-term economic trends Real average growth per year in General Liability claims incurred vs GDP 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% vs % 1% 0% -1% -2% -3% -4% 0% US Canada UK Germany France Italy -5% US Canada UK Germany France Italy Real claims growth GDP real growth Real claims growth GDP real growth 12 Source: Swiss Re, Economic Research & Consulting

13 Long-term economic trends Range of expected nominal claims growth ( ) vs recent growth ( ) 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% US Canada UK Germany France Italy Forecast range Growth Source: Swiss Re, Economic Research & Consulting

14 SECTION C Non-Economic Factors 14

15 Non economic factors Legislative environment Baremo in Spain PPOs in UK Litigiousness: Population per Lawyer UK 401 Germany 593 France 1,403 Spain 488 USA 395 Frequency / Victims per incident 15

16 Fuel consumption (Tm) MTPL Frequency Fuel consumption versus MTPL frequency Fuel consumption MTPL Frequency 16 Source: Cores, ICEA

17 SECTION D Impact of Annuities 17

18 Evaluating the Do Nothing Cost for annuities Gross marginal cost analysis for single and portfolio annuities (Mean) 100m 12m Single Portfolio PPO (1 PPO annuities in 200) (Mean) (Mean) 100m Portfolio annuities PPO (1 in (1200) in 200) 90m 90m 10m 80m 80m 70m 8m 70m 60m 60m 50m 6m 50m 40m 40m 4m 30m 30m 20m 2m 20m 10m 10m 0m 0m Capital required, per annuity 5.1m Cost of capital (6% over risk-free rate) 0.31m 18

19 Evaluating the Do Nothing Cost for annuities Benefit of excess of loss reinsurance (lifetime capital cost) 20m 18m 16m 14m 12m 10m 8m 6m Ceded loss & cost of capital relief >1yr cost of capital 1yr cost of capital Stochastic cost + yield stress Base cost 4m 2m 0m 19

20 Building a complete hedging solution for annuities How will regulation direct insurers to value annuity exposure? Under Solvency II, the risk margin can be envisaged as representing the cost of capital for of a thirdparty to take on the nonhedgeable risk within the reserve For annuities the major nonhedgeable risk is the ASHE vs. RPI basis risk Risk margin can be seen as adding a time dimension to capital. For annuities, the durations are very long (ave. 40 yrs, tail 80+ yrs) Increasing convergence between the calculation of risk margin under Solvency II and IFRS Source: CEIOPS & Deloitte, Solvency II Technical Provisions, April

21 SECTION E Outlook for Croatia 21

22 Determinants of claims inflation Legal environment Forum shopping (Rome II) Public awareness Activity of lawyers Statutory Limits of Indemnity Limits on Pain and Suffering Mortality tables Limits on maintenance needs of dependants 22

23 Determinants of claims inflation Economic H Inflation CPI / Wages Healthcare costs Petrol consumption 23

24 Determinants of claims inflation Socio-political State of provision of care Strength of social support networks Growing preference for annuities 24

25 25 Thank you and any questions?

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