Trends in European Casualty insurance

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1 Trends in European Casualty insurance Case studies on Asbestos and Medical Malpractice Alessandro Santoni, FIA CAS Seminar on Reinsurance June 6, Towers Watson. All rights reserved.

2 Casualty Trend in Europe Hot topics Focus on Inflation and different compensation levels Medical Malpractice Focus on Italy Asbestos in Europe Focus on U.K. Conclusions 1

3 Inflation and level of compensation 2

4 Litigation environment in Europe is resembling the U.S. in a Claims farming Contingent fees Class action Asbestos Periodic payment order 3

5 Challenging market to make underwriting profits where High Frequency of Catastrophe Losses High Claims Inflation 4

6 Inflation is substantial and is on the rise, while Inflation on the casualty lines is driven by both frequency as well as average claim cost 14% 12% 2012 Market Inflation Market - UKI Market - CE 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% Accident & Health Casualty Financial Fire Marine Technical 5

7 claim cost around Europe differ substantially 600, , , , , , % 25% 60% 90% Italy France Germany Great Britain Spain Netherlands Non-economic damages, Average claim cost by impairment severity 6

8 Medical Malpractice 7

9 Market trends: Across Europe we have observed an increasing number of claims being reported Market Issues Consequences High inflation, particularly of For hospitals: noneconomic damages Higher cost (liability awards Law firms actively marketing and insurance premiums) their services Higher policies retentions Creation of new types of For insurance companies damages Substantial losses Increasing cost of defensive medicine Price increases Lack of capacity Increasing public awareness Unhappy costumers Insurance companies have been slow to recognize these issues in reserving and pricing 8

10 Some challenges the market has faced in the past Long latency Inadequate claims-made clauses Inappropriate pricing for extended exposure Underestimation of claims inflation Multi-Year policies Lack of adequate information to manage risk Inadequate claims management strategy 9

11 Some challenges for the future Some issues of the past will be unchanged Increasing litigiousness More dependents being compensated Increasing capabilities of legal firms Slow resolution of the legal system More than 10% Claims inflation for more severe injuries 10

12 ITALY Italian med mal has been gaining the reputation of a toxic line due to very poor performance 500% 450% 400% 350% 300% LR = 133% 250% CAGR +4% 200% 150% 100% 50% 350, , , , , ,000 50,000 0% Written Premium Hospitals Reported LR Hospitals Source: Ania, Insurer association, TW study 11

13 ITALY Very diverse risk profile by specialization and geography Claim Cost Per Recovery by Specialization (Euro) Median 1st Level 2nd Level University Hospital Pediatric Hospital Oncology Orthopedics Claim Cost Per Recovery by Geography (Euro) Median North Central South Source: Marsh Study Il sole 24 Ore. 12

14 Asbestos in Europe 13

15 The emergence of asbestos-related diseases in the EU is repeating the U.S. experience, with a time lag due to the earlier exposure and earlier reduction in the U.S., and World Asbestos consumption (Production + Imports - Exports) 2,000,000 1,750,000 Former Soviet Union Rest Of the world 1,500,000 Western Europe 1,250,000 1,000,000, USA 750, , , Source: Wordwide asbestos supply and consumption trends from 1990 to 2003 (Robert L. Virta). 14

16 .with some notable differences and areas of convergence Feature Europe United States Compensation State health systems and employment liability Few companies named in each action Today's policies may respond Between 50 and in excess of 1 Mil. Manufactures and Producers, Product and premises liability 60 or more companies named in each action Asbestos is currently excluded Substantially Higher Litigation Environment Civil trials, with no jury Jury are more subjective Proof of disease, not all may impact insurance Contingent fees generally not allowed (nowin, no-fee in U.K.) Forum shopping not relevant in most countries Majority of compensation was for nonimpaired claimants Contingent fees up to 40% of awards Research for more favorable jurisdictions Number of Union screenings is rising Union and Lawyers screening, plus more litigious culture Class actions are generally not allowed Class actions 15

17 Asbestos-related claims are being compensated by the European insurance industry through different systems Occupational diseases can be compensated through: No-fault: Workers compensation or social security Tort: Employers liability, public liability or general/products liability The potential sources of compensation differ not only in what must be proven, but also in the damages they will compensate Differences exist between the various EU countries. In general, no-fault systems do not pay for non-economic losses, which are, at least in theory, available from the tort system 16

18 With a different impact by country U.K. and the Netherlands are the most impacted; developments in Italy and France make it particularly at risk Mesothelioma Incidence Netherlands (75,95) UK (75,91) Australia (68,91) 20 France (70,96) Italy (75,95) 15 Norway (70,88) Germany (75,91) Asbestos Consumption (Kg/Capita/year) Source: Ken Takahashi et al.: Ecological relationship between mesothelioma and Asbestos. 17

19 Projecting Mesothelioma Claim Numbers Mesothelioma Mainly using models derived from the UK Actuarial Profession s s 2009 Asbestos Working Party (AWP) model and underlying HSE/HSL projected mesothelioma deaths models 1. Frequency assumptions Mortality Mesothelioma Claim Frequency Historical Exposures Age profile Birth Cohorts Propensity to Claim 18

20 Mesothelioma Claim Numbers 2009 AWP projections U.K. 19

21 Mesothelioma Claims Severity Types of Damage U.K. 2. Severity assumptions Pain Suffering, Loss of Amenity General Damages Statutory Bereavement Mesothelioma Claim Cost Legal Costs Loss of Income, Future Earnings Ogden Tables Special Damages Cost of Care The Average Cost is tied back to the specific company experience. Funeral Costs 20

22 Conclusions Liability trends in Europe are resembling the U.S. environment; claims inflation is higher in countries where level of compensation is below average Claims inflation tends to rise more than CPI and GDP It is important to factor inflation assumptions explicitly into reserving models and time lag of recognition into pricing Local issues are often understated It is key to understand evolution of local regulation and tort system and to properly estimate the impact on pricing and contract terms and conditions 21

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