Innovation: managing risk, not avoiding it. Dr Claire Craig, Director, Government Office for Science, UK
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1 Innovation: managing risk, not avoiding it Health Risks, Precaution and Innovation 24 June 2015 Dr Claire Craig, Director, Government Office for Science, UK
2 Innovation managing the risks Innovation is essential, but always carries risk Framing risk rigorously makes decisions more robust Context matters: science is not the only lens Shaping regulation and decisionmaking: it can be done! 2 Health Risks, Precaution and Innovation 24 June 2015
3 Innovation is essential to growth and wellbeing Increases in life expectancy (and reductions in infant mortality) Global gdp increases 3 Health Risks, Precaution and Innovation 24 June 2015
4 Innovation has always been contested Cars and trains Contraception Societies respond by a mix of changing behaviours, regulation and legislation Combined oral contraceptive pill - first used in USA in Currently used by over 100 million women worldwide Has been called greatest scientific invention, of 20 th century by some commentators Impacts for women include: choice as to whether to have children, further education and a career 4 Health Risks, Precaution and Innovation 24 June 2015
5 Future wellbeing depends on effective exploitation of emerging technologies Big data Satellites Robotics and autonomous systems Synthetic biology Regenerative medicine Agri-science Advanced materials Energy storage Quantum Internet of things 5 Health Risks, Precaution and Innovation 24 June 2015
6 Framing risk Innovation is essential, but always carries risk Framing risk rigorously makes decisions more robust Context matters: science is not the only lens Shaping regulation and decisionmaking: it can be done! 6 Health Risks, Precaution and Innovation 24 June 2015
7 Apply the science of risk and risk communication Review the evidence. and acknowledge that all evidence is Contingent Uncertain Remember that the numbers you choose are not neutral 7 Health Risks, Precaution and Innovation 24 June 2015
8 Placing trust We place trust for specific purposes. We expect the trustworthy institution or individual to: Take account of our interests Be competent Not be self-serving Critical Trust is especially important if cause and effect are difficult for the layperson to determine. Invisible, pervasive Long term Highly technical 8 Health Risks, Precaution and Innovation 24 June 2015
9 UK has a systematic approach to managing top national risks The system Systematic and cross- Departmental Rapid response Independent verification Credibility Recent emergencies Ebola Flooding Effusive Volcanic eruption Severe Space Weather Explosive Volcanic Eruption Public Disorder Disruptive Industrial Action 9 Health Risks, Precaution and Innovation 24 June 2015
10 Context matters Innovation is essential, but always carries risk Framing risk rigorously makes decisions more robust Context matters: science is not the only lens Shaping regulation and decisionmaking: it can be done! 10 Health Risks, Precaution and Innovation 24 June 2015
11 Terminology: Risk is not the same as hazard If you can t stand the heat get out of the kitchen Hazards: bleach Exposure: bleach in the stew Risk = hazard x exposure: poisoning Vulnerability: children have greater sensitivity and greater likelihood of exposure Uncertainty: degree of confidence in hazard, exposure and vulnerability 11 Health Risks, Precaution and Innovation 24 June 2015
12 Anticipating types of innovation Five Broad Categories Examples Responses 1. Who pays? Some medical drugs NICE 2. My pain, your gain Nuclear waste Public engagement Decisions at multiple levels 3. Science meets values Early GM, geoengineering 4. Unanticipated consequences Internet Strengthen science base. Public engagement. Don t confuse science with values. Monitor, debate, trial and learn 5. New challenges Some nanotechnologies Monitor, adapt, regulate 12 Health Risks, Precaution and Innovation 24 June 2015
13 Science is not the only lens Can view fracking in terms of:- Suite of technical risks e.g. seismological or well engineering ( hydraulic fracturing ) Impact on global energy and carbon policy ( growth and greenhouses gases ) Impact on local amenity ( not in my backyard ) 13 Health Risks, Precaution and Innovation 24 June 2015
14 Cultural factors - precautionary by default? National identity and values Stem cells Nuclear power GM Handguns Leading to large variations in approaches to innovation and risk and on different issues in different countries 14 Health Risks, Precaution and Innovation 24 June 2015
15 GM crops: practical working guidelines Be specific What gene? In what organism? For what purpose? Have a broad view Consider inaction as well as action Look at multiple pathways Science is essential, but not the only lens 15 Health Risks, Precaution and Innovation 24 June 2015
16 Shaping regulation Innovation is essential, but always carries risk Framing risk rigorously makes decisions more robust Context matters: science is not the only lens Shaping regulation and decisionmaking: it can be done! 16 Health Risks, Precaution and Innovation 24 June 2015
17 Challenges for regulation Challenges Systemic pressures Economic regulators (and price) Asymmetric incentives Neonicotinoids (unintended consequences) Lack of proportion Pig inspection (what you can t see for looking) 17 Health Risks, Precaution and Innovation 24 June 2015
18 It can be done HFEA and mitochondria replacement therapy HFEA: Extended consultation Multiple strategies Outcome: Shift in public and expert opinion Advised Secretary of State: clear public support for clinical use of mitochondria replacement treatment. 18 Health Risks, Precaution and Innovation 24 June 2015
19 Call to action Key areas where we can build on existing approaches: o Investment: Aligning national priorities for investment on resilience, infrastructure and innovation with an evidence and risk-based approach; o Coordination: Ensuring a more coherent and structured approach to assessing impact of risk in policy, regulation and crisis management; o Regulators: Putting in place the right governance structures and incentives in relation to our regulators and regulated industries; o Science-based EU: Rooting the approach to policy and decision-making in EU in robust scientific evidence. 19 Health Risks, Precaution and Innovation 24 June 2015
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