Public Sector Foresight: The Future is Now
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- Mervyn Reynold Young
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1 Public Sector Foresight: The Future is Now World Future 2015 Public Sector Foresight Network Meeting San Francisco July 24, 2015 Stephen Sanford Strategic Planning & Innovation Manager U.S. Government Accountability Office / The opinions expressed herein are the author's own and do not necessarily reflect the views of the US Government Accountability Office.
2 Photo: NASA
3 Images: NOAA
4 Foresight & Disruptive Innovation Speed of change Uncertainty of outcomes Pace of regulatory and policy responses
5 LANDSCAPE OF DISRUPTION Mass adoption of disruptive technologies Key sectors and markets External Forces
6 LANDSCAPE OF DISRUPTION Internet of Things Autonomous Systems Machine Learning Big Data / Analytics Transportation & Infrastructure Public Safety / Security Health Care / Life Sciences Finance Industrial / Manufacturing Education Cyber Security Privacy Regulation Citizen Trust Images: NASA; Roman Boed, Creative Commons BY 2.0; Brett Jordan Creative Commons BY 2.0 license; John Tolva, Creative Commons BY-NC-SA 2.0; Michael Sean Gallagher, Creative Commons BY-SA 2.0; Office.com
7 LANDSCAPE OF DISRUPTION Internet of Things Autonomous Systems Machine Learning Big Data / Analytics Transportation & Infrastructure Smart cities; traffic management; logistics & delivery; driver-assist/driverless systems; V2V & V2I Public Safety / Security Health Care / Life Sciences Finance Industrial / Manufacturing Education Cyber Security Privacy Regulation Citizen Trust Images: NASA; Roman Boed, Creative Commons BY 2.0; Brett Jordan Creative Commons BY 2.0 license; John Tolva, Creative Commons BY-NC-SA 2.0; Michael Sean Gallagher, Creative Commons BY-SA 2.0; Office.com
8 LANDSCAPE OF DISRUPTION Internet of Things Autonomous Systems Machine Learning Big Data / Analytics Transportation & Infrastructure Public Safety / Security Image capture; tracking (physical & online); UAVs; robotics; data security; insider threats; acoustic sensors Health Care / Life Sciences Finance Industrial / Manufacturing Education Cyber Security Privacy Regulation Citizen Trust Images: NASA; Roman Boed, Creative Commons BY 2.0; Brett Jordan Creative Commons BY 2.0 license; John Tolva, Creative Commons BY-NC-SA 2.0; Michael Sean Gallagher, Creative Commons BY-SA 2.0; Office.com
9 LANDSCAPE OF DISRUPTION Internet of Things Autonomous Systems Machine Learning Big Data / Analytics Transportation & Infrastructure Public Safety / Security Health Care / Life Sciences Synthetic biology; gene editing; rapid diagnostics; home health; wearables; electronic health records Finance Industrial / Manufacturing Education Cyber Security Privacy Regulation Citizen Trust Images: NASA; Roman Boed, Creative Commons BY 2.0; Brett Jordan Creative Commons BY 2.0 license; John Tolva, Creative Commons BY-NC-SA 2.0; Michael Sean Gallagher, Creative Commons BY-SA 2.0; Office.com
10 LANDSCAPE OF DISRUPTION Internet of Things Autonomous Systems Machine Learning Big Data / Analytics Transportation & Infrastructure Public Safety / Security Health Care / Life Sciences Finance Blockchain (currency, bonds, contracts); peer-to-peer lending; robo-advisors; virtual banking; payments Industrial / Manufacturing Education Cyber Security Privacy Regulation Citizen Trust Images: NASA; Roman Boed, Creative Commons BY 2.0; Brett Jordan Creative Commons BY 2.0 license; John Tolva, Creative Commons BY-NC-SA 2.0; Michael Sean Gallagher, Creative Commons BY-SA 2.0; Office.com
11 LANDSCAPE OF DISRUPTION Internet of Things Autonomous Systems Machine Learning Big Data / Analytics Transportation & Infrastructure Public Safety / Security Health Care / Life Sciences Finance Industrial / Manufacturing Robotics; in-shoring ; smart assembly; intelligent plants ; connected products; on-demand production Education Cyber Security Privacy Regulation Citizen Trust Images: NASA; Roman Boed, Creative Commons BY 2.0; Brett Jordan Creative Commons BY 2.0 license; John Tolva, Creative Commons BY-NC-SA 2.0; Michael Sean Gallagher, Creative Commons BY-SA 2.0; Office.com
12 LANDSCAPE OF DISRUPTION Internet of Things Autonomous Systems Machine Learning Big Data / Analytics Transportation & Infrastructure Public Safety / Security Health Care / Life Sciences Finance Industrial / Manufacturing Education MOOCs; personalized education; automated grading; student data; STEM curricula; open data Cyber Security Privacy Regulation Citizen Trust Images: NASA; Roman Boed, Creative Commons BY 2.0; Brett Jordan Creative Commons BY 2.0 license; John Tolva, Creative Commons BY-NC-SA 2.0; Michael Sean Gallagher, Creative Commons BY-SA 2.0; Office.com
13 Once the Public Sector s Exclusive Domain Images: NASA; Wired.com
14 Disruptive Innovation Speed of change Uncertainty of outcomes Pace of regulatory and policy responses
15 Implications Imperative to have robust, forward-looking foresight system Strategic planning Environmental scanning Scenarios Risk management
16 GAO S Foresight Mission Photo: Architect of the Capitol
17 GAO Strategic Plan Key Trends Threats Confronting U.S. National Security Interests Fiscal Sustainability & Debt Challenges Global Interdependence & Multilateral Cooperation Science & Technology Trends Advances in Communications Networks & Information Technologies Shifting Roles in Governance & Government Demographic & Societal Changes
18 Forward-Looking Work Forums & Technology Assessments on Emerging Issues (3D Printing, Big Data & Privacy, Climate Resilience, Nanomanufacturing, Financial Literacy) Fiscal outlook Regenerative medicine Intelligent transportation systems Electromagnetic threats to electric grid Debt limit Biosurveillance Cybersecurity (banking, aviation, federal infrastructure) Emerging risks in banking regulation Arctic planning UAVs (military, civilian) GPS jamming Budgeting for disasters Reducing overlap and duplication in federal programs Nuclear smuggling Low levels of retirement savings Weather satellite gaps Flood insurance Identity theft Air traffic control modernization Crop insurance Fiscal exposures from climate change and extreme weather
19 Successful foresight & scanning Multi-stakeholder Top-down / bottom-up engagement Institutionalized Anchored to visible, enterprise-wide activity (e.g., strategic planning) Creates impact in mission work Existing practices Look around it s probably already happening
20 Public Sector Foresight: The Future is Now World Future 2015 Public Sector Foresight Network Meeting San Francisco July 24, 2015 Stephen Sanford Strategic Planning & Innovation Manager U.S. Government Accountability Office /
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