Japanese Foreign and Security Policies under Yukio Hatoyama-What is Old, What is New?

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Stephen Flynn
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1 Japanese Foreign and Security Policies under Yukio Hatoyama-What is Old, What is New? Japan and Middle-Power Diplomacy/Japan and Asian Integration/East Asian Community Japan-US Japan-China Japan-North Korea Missile Defense/Constitutional Revision/Japan s International Missions Università degli Studi di Pavia 1

Japan and Middle-Power Diplomacy/Japan and Asian Integration/East Asian

2 Middle-Power Diplomacy Middle-power diplomacy : Concept stresses multilateral diplomacy within Asia while the US- Japan security alliance remains the cornerstone of Japanese national and regional security policies US concerns: Zero-Sum policies: More Asia, less US Reality: Few details on alleged new Japanese multilateral Asian policies and friction with the US Università degli Studi di Pavia 2

regional security policies US concerns: Zero-Sum policies: More Asia, less US Reality: Few details

3 Asian Integration/East Asian Community Hatoyama: Promotion of an East Asian Community (EAC) under Japanese-Chinese leadership But: EAC very vague concept and and so-called East Asia Summit next to no progress on establishing a so-called EAC Regional integration in Asia above all economic integration EAS remains annex of ASEAN Summit Conclusion: A lot of hype on Japan-led EAC no details/policy initiatives Università degli Studi di Pavia 3

on establishing a so-called EAC Regional integration in Asia above all economic integration EAS remains annex

4 Japan-US-Friction and Controversy Hatoyama announced to revisit a 2006 Japan-U.S. agreement: re-location of the U.S. Marine Corps Air Station Futenma from Ginowan in southern Okinawa to Henoko, a less densely populated area in the northern part of the island (Part of 2006 agreement: Reduction of the number of US military stationed in Japan by re-locating marines from Okinawa to Guam by 2014) Hatoyama plan to re-locate the base outside of Okinawa and possibly outside of Japan ( US troops on Japanese territory) But: No realistic alternatives, Hatoyama not able to stick to selfimposed May deadline Università degli Studi di Pavia 4

5 Japan-US-Friction and Controversy May Issue blown out of proportion, dominating the US- Japan agenda for months, costing Hatoyama a lot of credibility 2. Japan most probably obliged to stick to the existing agreement, with minor modifications 3. Result: Base re-location issue a make-or-break issue for coalition government Università degli Studi di Pavia 5

6 Japan-China Growing economic interdependence, bilateral trade amounting to $232 billion in 2009 (12% lower than 2008), Japan s biggest foreign investor in China (20.5% of Japan s overall external trade) Issues/Problems: History issue, territorial disputes in East China Sea Territorial disputes not solvable, joint exploration of natural resources the maximum Hatoyama: Continuation of Japan s economic and political engagement course jointly promoting regional economic and financial integration: Up to now, however, no concrete initiatives Continuity: Engagement as default strategy, occasional disturbance by China threat, suspicions about China s economic and military growth Università degli Studi di Pavia 6

resources the maximum Hatoyama: Continuation of Japan s economic and political engagement course jointly promoting regional economic and financial integration: Up to now,

7 Japan-North Korea North Korea: evil state, terrorist state in Japan s perception Japanese approach and policies policies dominated by abduction issue Japanese economic and political engagement course of the early 2000s on hold (North Korean nuclear armament, missile tests, Nodong missiles, abductees) Japanese defense establishment exploiting perceived threat from North Korea to upgrade Japan s defense capabilities (missile defense, upgrading the coast guard s equipment, discussion on nuclear armament) Hatoyama: No initiatives to resume bilateral talks with NK, 6-Party Talks have yet to resume Università degli Studi di Pavia 7

defense establishment exploiting perceived threat from North Korea to upgrade Japan s defense capabilities (missile defense, upgrading the coast guard s

8 Missile Defense, Constitutional Revision, Japan s International Missions Missile Defense: Hatoyama government committed but budget cuts Constitutional revision: Hatoyama in favour in principle but not a priority on domestic agenda International missions: Hatoyama terminated refuelling mission in the Indian Ocean, continuation of anti-piracy mission in Somalia Hatoyama and Afghanistan: Japan increasing funds for Afghanistian-$5 billion over the coming 3 years Università degli Studi di Pavia 8

missions: Hatoyama terminated refuelling mission in the Indian Ocean, continuation of anti-piracy mission in Somalia

Chapter 2 Strengthening of the Japan-U.S. Alliance

Chapter 2 Strengthening of the Japan-U.S. Alliance Based on the Japan U.S. Security Treaty, the Japan-U.S. Security Arrangements, together with Japan s own efforts, constitute the cornerstone for Japan