PORTERS FIVE FORCE MODEL ON INFRASTRUCTURE SECTOR

Transcription

1 PORTERS FIVE FORCE MODEL ON INFRASTRUCTURE SECTOR (A) RAILWAYS 1. BARGAINING POWER OF SUPPLIERS 1 Consumers "consumers" has a significant impact, so an analyst should put more weight into it. "consumers" will have a long-term positive impact on the this entity, which adds to its value. 2. Self-sufficiency in production of rolling stock "Self-sufficiency in production of rolling stock" will have a long-term negative impact on this entity, which subtracts from the entity's value. 2. INTENSITY OF EXISTING RIVALRY 1. Declining growth rate of industry It has a significant impact, so an analyst should put more weight into it. "Declining growth rate of industry (Indian Railways)" will have a long-term positive impact on the this entity, which adds to its value. 2.Government policies and regulations It can dictate the level of competition within the industry. When they limit competition, this is a positive for Indian Railways. 3. THREAT OF SUBSTITUTES 1. High cost of switching to substitute Limited number of substitutes means that customers cannot easily switch to other products or services of similar price and still receive the same benefits. High switching costs positively affect Indian Railways. 2. Limited number of substitutes

2 A limited number of substitutes mean that customers cannot easily find other products or services that fulfil their needs. Limited substitutes are a positive for Indian Railways. 3. Substantial product differentiation Substantial product differentiation (Indian Railways)" will have a long-term positive impact on the this entity, which adds to its value. 4. INTENSITY OF EXISTING RIVALRY 1.Declining growth rate of industry Declining growth rate of industry (Indian Railways) will have a long-term positive impact on the this entity, which adds to its value. 2. Large industry Size Large industries allow multiple firms and produces to prosper without having to steal market share from each other. Large industry size is a positive for Indian Railways. 3. Government policies and regulations Government policies and regulations can dictate the level of competition within the industry. When they limit competition, this is a positive for Indian Railways. 5. THREAT OF NEW COMPETITORS 1. High capital requirements High capital requirements mean a company must spend a lot of money in order to compete in the market. High capital requirements positively affect Indian Railways. 2. High sunk costs High sunk costs make it difficult for a competitor to enter a new market, because they have to commit money up front with no guarantee of returns in the end. High sunk costs positively affect Indian Railways. 3. Economies of scale Economies of scale help producers to lower their cost by producing the next unit of output at lower costs. When new competitors enter the market, they will have a higher cost of production, because they have smaller economies of scale. Economies of scale positively affect Indian Railways. 4. Entry barriers are high

3 When barriers are high, it is more difficult for new competitors to enter the market. High entry barriers positively affect profits for Indian Railways.This statement will lead to an increase in profits for this entity. 6. BARGAINING POWER OF CUSTOMERS 1. Product is important to customer When customers cherish particular products they end up paying more for that one product. This positively affects Indian Railways. 2. Large numbers of customers- When there are large numbers of customers, no one customer tends to have bargaining leverage. Limited bargaining leverage helps Indian Railways. (B) ROADS Road Construction forms the most crucial part of the economy. As per the National Highways Authority of India, about 65% of freight and 80% passenger traffic is carried by the roads. The National Highways carry about 40% of total road traffic, though only about 2% of the road network is covered by these roads. Average growth of the number of vehicles has been around 10.16% per annum. 1.Barriers to Entry High Due to capital intensive nature of business with high outlay of funds in initial years of operations in form of capital, security deposit and working capital, the barriers to entry are high Since the sector is regulated by Government, the entry into large projects depends on government policies as to allow newer contractors to bid for projects 2. Available of substitutes Low There has been increase in number of road contractors, but low capital raising ability restricts them from bidding for the large projects. 3.Bargaining power of Customers High The sector is regulated by the government with respect to project order flows Due to lack of infrastructure funds flowing from the government, the consumers have to pay for the usage of the infrastructure facilities in BOT projects. However, the toll prices are regulated by the government, which may affect the cash flows Maintenance cost is passed on to the company post completion of the project

4 4.Bargaining of suppliers High Bitumen, semi-solid form of petroleum, is the major raw material which goes into construction of roads. Any fluctuation in global oil and gas prices affect the operating margins Low credit period offered by cement companies increases the funds blocked in working capital Since the projects are highly labour and sub-contractors intensive, the unavailability of these resources may pose a risk 5.Competition Medium The competition is fierce amongst the corporates bidding for orders These companies have long execution history and have high capital raising ability for such long term projects. These companies get aggressive in acquiring the projects with competitive cost structure which may lower the economic value of the shareholders A sense of mutual understanding is also witnessed wherein the players take up projects in joint ventures and later sublet to the one having an edge in execution with respect to location and funds availability 6.Growth in economy In present situation, the government is likely to break the policy gridlock and roll out approvals. More so, we expect lots of order flows pertaining to brownfield projects, which will kick start the halted projects in near future. 7.Increase in Traffic Since a major chunk of projects are on BOT (Build, operate, Transfer) basis, increase in traffic will generate revenues and sooner capital realization. It is fair to assume that with increase in economic activity, the freight and passenger traffic is likely to bounce back. 8.Government Policies As highlighted earlier, we believe that the government plays a key role in infrastructure projects. Since infrastructure is government driven initiative, active government will increase the prospects of the segment. However, any delay in award of projects or approval from the government will cripple the activities.

5 High Low threat of new entrants threat of substitute product & services High bargaining power of buyers bargaining power of suppliers High (C) POWER 1. Threat of new entry-low Highly capital-intensive industry and hence demands huge investment Power producers Behemoth like NTPC, SEBs contributing around 85 % of total power produced Ditto for Power Grid Corp. of India in Transmission and Distribution Segment Major plans by big companies like Reliance power, Adani power, Lanco etc. to make a entry into power sector after market opened up for private sector through Electricity Act 2003 and subsequent reforms However obtaining regulatory approvals, linkages, land etc. still remain the major bottlenecks. 2. Threat of substitute product or services- medium Power does not have substitute but it can be generated from different sources of energy. Currently thermal power is dominant in India, coal being the major raw material. Coal availability is limited and therefore power from nuclear, hydro and other renewable sources could be used as substitute for thermal power in future. Agreements with various countries for nuclear collaboration will give major impetus to Nuclear power plants Although demand for power outstrips its supply, going forward, thermal power plant companies have threat from non-thermal power generators.

6 3.Bargaining power of buyers- Medium Industrial consumers have huge demand for power Their bargaining power is low in India as the number of power companies to buy from is limited in number. Hence power companies are in better position. Retail customers -Government regulates the power sector to ensure supply of power at reasonable prices but this regulation is limited. Peak shortage is much more in every region and it is about 12 % on all India basis which allow suppliers to dictate terms with the buyers. Overall, the bargaining power of buyers is Medium. 4. Bargaining power of suppliers- high Coal is majorly used as a feed for generating power. The supply of coal in India is limited and hence coal players are in dominant position. Power companies are required to import coal if the domestic supply is not sufficient, which proves to be an expensive affair. With companies like Lanco, Adani Power buying coal mines in Indonesia, Australia etc. to import better grade coal than available in India, market dominance of Govt. Companies like Coal India will subside gradually. Threat of new entrants (LOW) Threat of substitute product & services ()MEDIUM Bargaining of consumers (MEDIUM) bargaining power of suppliers (HIGH) (D) PORTS

7 1. Threat of new entry- Barriers to entry are high, especially in the transmission and distribution segments, which are largely state monopolies. Also, entering the power generation business requires heavy investment initially. The other barriers are fuel linkages, payment guarantees from state governments that buy power and retail distribution license 2. Competition- Competition is price based. However, companies with younger fleet command a premium. 3. Bargaining power of buyers- High bargaining power as competition is high in the industry. 4. Bargaining power of suppliers- Diminishing with gradual increase in fleet supply and intense global competition.