Economia Financiera Avanzada
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1 Information EBAPE- Fundação Getulio Vargas Universidad del Pacífico, Julio 5 21, 2011
2 Prf. Information Ph. D in Mathematical Economics (IMPA-Brazil) Mathematical Finance, Financial Economics, Behavioral Finance and Game Theory. Researcher Level 1 of CNPq Director of Brazilian Finance Society Bacen, Coca Cola, Tesouro Nacional.
3 Objetivo Information En este curso presentaremos modelos de precificación de ativos en dos y vários períodos. Obtendremos bid-ask spreads a partir de la ausencia de arbitrage. Cuando posible introduciremos fricciones de mercado y discutiremos extensiones recientes en el campo de las finanzas comportamentales.
4 3 semanas Information Primera semana: Teoria da Desición, Riesgo y Carteras Optimas Segunda Semana: Equilíbrio, Ausencia de Arbitrage y Avaliación de Ativos en dos períodos Tercera Semana: Modelo Multiperíodos
5 Information Otros Topicos de Interes Default and Bankruptcy Asset Price Bubbles. Self-Enforcing Debt and Asset Prices. Collateral, Leverage, and Asset Prices Heterogeneous Beliefs and Speculation in Asset Markets. Ambiguous Beliefs in Asset Markets. Related Articles:
6 Bibliografia Information Financial Economics: A Concise Introduction to Classical and Behavioral Finance. T. Hens and M. Rieger. Springer-Verlag, Principles of Financial Economics. S. LeRoy and J. Werner. Cambridge University Press, 2001.
7 Information Bibliografia Adicional Dynamic Asset Pricing Theory, Darrell Duffie. Princeton Univesity Press, 3rd Edt, 2001.
8 Avaliación Information Listas de exercícios semanales (40%) 1 prueba final (60%) Slides estarán disponibles en el site
9 EBAPE- Fundação Getulio Vargas Universidad del Pacífico, Julio 5 21, 2011
10 Prf. Introduction
11 Introduction An Introduction to Financial Economics Scientific Map Topics of finance include: public finance, international finance, corporate finance, derivatives, risk management, portfolio theory, asset pricing, and financial economics. Financial economics is the interface that connects finance to economics. T. Hens, M. Rieger (Zürich/Trier) Financial Economics August 5, / 16
12 Introduction An Introduction to Financial Economics Financial Economics Financial economics is about trade among agents. Agents trade interest bearing, dividends paying assets, derivatives. Economic perspective: agents trade time, risks and beliefs on financial markets. Aggregation of different valuations at a market equilibrium into market prices. Classical Finance: aggregation approach sufficient to describe financial markets. Example: Trading risks A farmer is naturally exposed to the risk of falling crop prices. A food company is exposed to the risk of increasing crop prices. In the market for commodities, forwards can be used to agree on a price for a commodity and thus trade risk. Both parties risk exposure has been reduced. Examples for trading time and beliefs can be found in the text book on page 6 f. T. Hens, M. Rieger (Zürich/Trier) Financial Economics August 5, / 16
13 Introduction An Introduction to Financial Economics Arbitrage and excess Returns An efficient financial market is a market without any further gains from trade. It is arbitrage-free, since arbitrage opportunities give gains from trades. (Arbitrage opportunity: self-financing trading strategy) Example: Derivative valuation The payoff of the derivative can be duplicated by a portfolio of the underlying and e.g. a risk-free asset. The price of the derivative must be the same as the value of the duplicating portfolio. Why? Otherwise, one could build an arbitrage strategy by shorting the asset and hedging the payoff by holding the duplicating portfolio. T. Hens, M. Rieger (Zürich/Trier) Financial Economics August 5, / 16
14 Introduction An Introduction to Financial Economics Arbitrage and Excess Returns An excess return is a return higher than the risk-free rate adjusted by the risk involved. An excess return is usually no arbitrage opportunity since it carries some risks. One reason to trade on financial markets is to gain excess returns or a positive Alpha. Since efficient financial markets are arbitrage-free, it is often argued that such gains are not possible and thus one cannot profit from trades. But: there are more reasons for trading on financial markets: risk and time. By trading, the risk of an initial portfolio can be controlled, e.g. by buying capital protection (insurance against losses). T. Hens, M. Rieger (Zürich/Trier) Financial Economics August 5, / 16
15 Introduction An Introduction to Financial Economics Market Efficiency Double meaning of efficiency in financial markets: 1 Markets are efficient if prices incorporate all information (Fama). Makes paying analysts to research the opportunities and the risks of certain companies worthless since the market has already priced the company reflecting all available information. 2 Efficient markets do not have any unexploited gains from trade. Allocation on efficient markets cannot be improved by raising the utility of one agent without lowering the utility of some other agent (Pareto efficiency). T. Hens, M. Rieger (Zürich/Trier) Financial Economics August 5, / 16
16 Introduction An Introduction to Financial Economics Equilibrium Competitive market equilibrium: In a competitive equilibrium all agents trade in such a way as to achieve the most desirable consumption pattern, and market prices are such that all markets clear, i.e., in all markets demand is equal to supply. Equilibrium prices reflect the relative scarcity of consumption in different states, the agents beliefs of the occurrence of the states and their risk preferences. At equilibrium, there are no further gains from trade. For one given initial allocation there can be multiple equilibria. Which equilibrium is actually obtained depends on exogenous factors. Asset prices at equilibrium can be determined without knowing all agents beliefs, risk attitudes and initial endowments. T. Hens, M. Rieger (Zürich/Trier) Financial Economics August 5, / 16
17 Introduction An Introduction to Financial Economics Time Scale of Investment Decisions Investors differ in their horizon, information processing and reaction time (day traders vs. investors with long investment horizons). Intraday price movements reflect how the average investor perceives incoming news. The very long run price movements are determined by trends in the fundamental data. Excess volatility (Shiller): stock prices fluctuate around the long terms trend by more than economic fundamentals indicate. Three different time scales usually used: Short run (intraday market clearing of demand and supply orders) Medium run (monthly equialization of expectations). Long run (yearly wealth dynamics). T. Hens, M. Rieger (Zürich/Trier) Financial Economics August 5, / 16
18 Introduction An Introduction to Financial Economics Behavioral Economics A rational investor should follow expected utility theory. Agents do often not behave according to this rational decisions model. Concepts of classical (rational) decision theory have often been replaced with a more descriptive approach ( behavioral decision theory ). Behavioral finance is used to study deviations from perfectly rational behavior. Example for a behavioral model: Prospect Theory (Kahnemann & Tversky). Definition of behavioral finance by Richard Thaler: Behavioral finance is simply open-minded finance. [... ] Sometimes in order to find a solution to an [financial] empirical puzzle it is necessary to entertain the possibility that some of the agents in the economy behave less than fully rational some of the time. More details can be found in the text book on page 11f. T. Hens, M. Rieger (Zürich/Trier) Financial Economics August 5, / 16
19 Introduction An Introduction to Financial Economics Research Methods A good theory is based on observable assumptions, testable implications, and a broad generalization of reality. Two ways to gather empirical evidence to support or falsify a theory on financial markets: Study of financial markets data. conduction of surveys and laboratory experiments. Both approaches have their advantages and limitations: Advantages Limitations Market Data Always comes from real often noisy; uncontrollable factors; life situations might not be able to be specific Surveys and laboratory can be collected under small number of subjects; experiments controlled conditions unrealistic settings Today, both methods are frequently used together. More details can be found in the text book on page 12f. T. Hens, M. Rieger (Zürich/Trier) Financial Economics August 5, / 16
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