Water Outlook for Melbourne

Transcription

1 Water Outlook for Melbourne Melburnians are to be congratulated for continuing to use water wisely with household demand over 20% lower than 10 years ago Investment in and adoption of alternative water sources have complemented customer behaviours While storages are slightly lower than this time last year, the Melbourne water supply system is well placed to deal with possible warm dry summer weather ahead The Victorian Desalination plant remains available to support water system security Restrictions are not required in Melbourne this year but remember, Permanent Water Use Rules are now in place. Contact your water retailer for advice on best practice water use. 1 December 2015

2 Water resource security is stable Melbourne s water storages have dropped slightly over the past year and are at 71.9% of their capacity as of 25 November 2015 compared with 78.5% on 30 November Chart 1 shows that at this level, water storage levels are assessed as being in the High Zone. This means the existing water supply system, which includes the Victorian Desalination Plant, can deliver at least five years of water without storages entering the Low Zone under a range of modelled climate and demand scenarios. Water use has increased but per person use remains steady Melbourne s water use has risen slightly compared with recent years, partly attributed to a growing population. Chart 1 Storage level on 25 November 2015 Chart 2 shows that total water use in Melbourne has increased slightly but remains lower than pre drought consumption levels. This outcome has been influenced by increased population but is offset by water efficient behaviours and investment in alternative water projects. Chart 3 shows that total water use (i.e. residential, non-residential and non-revenue water) on a per person basis has remained the same at 251 litres per person per day in Chart 2 Total water use in Melbourne (gigalitres) Residential water Chart 4 shows that residential water use on a per person basis has remained the same at 160 litres per person per day in , which is 23% lower than pre drought levels. The water retailers continue to provide water efficiency education and advice to the community. Chart 3 Total water use in Melbourne (litres per person per day) Chart 4 Residential water use in Melbourne (litres per person per day)

3 Non-residential water Non-residential water use includes water used by large and small businesses, schools, universities, hospitals, parks and sportsgrounds. Chart 5 shows that non-residential water use remains steady. The steady water consumption in the non-residential sector can be attributed to continued focus by customers on water efficiency. Non-revenue water Non-revenue water is water that is not billed to customers. This includes loss of water through water main bursts and leaks, water used for firefighting and theft of water. Chart 6 shows that non-revenue water use remains the same in comparison to previous years. The water businesses continue to invest in proactive system leak detection to ensure Melbourne s level of non-revenue water remains among the lowest in the world. Mostly neutral rainfall outlook with warmer start for summer Chart 5 Non-residential water use in Melbourne (gigalitres) Chart 6 Non-revenue water in Melbourne The Bureau of Meteorology seasonal climate outlook for the next three months indicates an equal chance of wetter or drier conditions with a warmer start to summer in southern Australia. Temperature and rainfall influence water use, especially during summer periods for watering gardens, parks, and sportsgrounds. At the same time, rainfall and temperature also influence catchment moisture levels and inflows to Melbourne s storage reservoirs. The water businesses continually monitor storage conditions and the Bureau s seasonal climate outlooks which are updated monthly. Rainfall outlook The Australian Bureau of Meteorology outlook for rainfall (issued on 19 November 2015 Chart 7) for the period from December 2015 to February 2016 indicates that for Melbourne and its water supply catchments, the chances of a normal season are more likely. Chart 7 Seasonal rainfall outlook for December 2015 to February 2016 Temperature outlook The Australian Bureau of Meteorology outlook for temperature (issued on 19 November 2015 to December 2016 Chart 8) for the period from December 2015 to February 2016 indicates that a warmer start to summer is likely for Melbourne and its water supply catchments. Chart 8 Seasonal temperature outlook for December 2015 to February 2016

4 Determining water security Under a range of possible future streamflow scenarios and consumer demand assumptions, Melbourne s water storages are likely to be in the High Zone on 30 November Predicting Melbourne s future water storage levels is complex and uncertain. This is primarily because it is not possible to accurately forecast the timing and extent of rainfall events and consequently the catchments runoff response to them up to one year ahead. The water businesses undertake modelling to assess possible future water supply system conditions based on a range of inflow and demand scenarios. These include possible drought scenarios, water releases for environmental flows and demand for water by the metropolitan retailers and the regional urban water corporations with entitlements to the Melbourne system. Based on this analysis it is still likely that Melbourne s water storages will be in the High Zone on 30 November Consequently, water restrictions are not required this year. The Desalination Plant is available to help secure the supply of drinking water. A decision on whether the Plant should operate in 2016/17 will be made by 1 April Permanent Water Use Rules Permanent Water Use Rules are currently in place for Melbourne. Permanent Water Use Rules are currently in place across Melbourne. These rules require the community to use common sense as part of their everyday use of water. Melbourne s households and businesses have demonstrated a strong commitment to the efficient use of water and the water supply system is currently meeting the needs of customers. More information on the Water Outlook and Permanent Water Use Rules is available from water retailer websites. Action Plans The three water retailers Drought Response Plans require them to report on the Annual Action Plans and Medium term Action Plans in order to maintain water security. This Water Outlook reflects the plans annual and longer term being undertaken at a number of tiers of resource planning. These are contained in the following appendices and reflect: Joint retailer programs with to enhance security for bulk water supply; and Investment at a local level by each individual water business.

5 Appendix 1 Joint water business programs to enhance security for bulk water supply PROGRAM/PROJECT NAME Victorian State Water Plan Urban Water Strategy System Strategy DESCRIPTION RESPONSIBILITY TIMING/ STATUS Assist the Department of Environment, Land, Water and Planning to develop a water resource plan that covers: Preparing for drought and climate change; Preparing for extreme events and emergencies; Direction for urban water management Realising the potential of a water grid for Victoria and; Productivity and affordability. Develop an urban water strategy that includes levels of service, measures to integrate urban water cycle management into planning, options to facilitate efficient investment in projects, measures to adapt to climate change and measures to maintain a balance between supply and demand., in collaboration with other water corporations, will develop a System strategy. The strategy will establish a view of available water in the Melbourne system across a 50 year planning horizon Develop robust assessment of the augmentation costs that could be avoided through implementing programs to reduce the need for new potable water sources 2016 Permanent Water Use Rules Community rebates program Continue to inform the community about the common sense rules that ensure the wise use of water at all times Administer rebates to selected financially vulnerable residential customers. Rules remain in place Desalinated Water Order Advice End Use Study and Appliance Stock Survey Annually review the level of security and advise on the need for desalinated water Using a sample of 350 customers, use digital technology and analytical tools to determine detailed water use habits and conduct a stocktake of the penetration of water efficient appliances. This will aid future demand forecast plus help target future efficiency programs No water ordered for 2015/16 End 2015 mid 2017

6 Appendix 2- Investment at a local level by each individual water business Programs/ Projects PROGRAM/PROJECT NAME West Werribee dual supply project Partnerships in Stormwater Reuse Program Aquifer storage and recovery Altona recycled water project stage 2 Western growth area scheme DESCRIPTION RESPONSIBILITY TIMING/ STATUS Provision of fit for purpose alternative water supply to service new urban development and public open spaces Partnering with local government to deliver stormwater harvesting projects for irrigation. Using aquifers in regions to store alternative water. Provision of fit for purpose alternative water supply to industries in the Altona industrial precinct. Development of the servicing strategy for the western growth area using an integrated water management approach. Southern Rural Water Supply date to be determined. - Five projects have been commissioned and one project is expected to be commissioned by Dec 2015 The construction of the 1 st Aquifer Storage and Recovery (ASR) project is expected to be completed in 2015/16 and the investigation of a 2 nd ASR project is nearing the injection trial stage. is currently in the process of revisiting the strategy and business case Under development Efficiency programs non-residential customers Network efficiency Main Outfall Sewer (MOS) Water Optimisation East Werribee Employment Precinct (EWEP) IWCM Strategy Greening the West Continue to work with non-residential customers to deliver water efficiency projects. Focus will include optimising open space irrigation, continuing to benchmark consumption and water audits for schools and small to medium businesses. Undertake active leak detection, reticulation mains renewals, pressure management, intelligent network technologies and rapid response to bursts and leaks. Investigation into how to reinstate this disused asset to maximise its benefit to livability of Melbourne s West. Development of the servicing strategy for EWEP using an integrated water management approach. A preventative health initiative to link sustainable water supplies to enable healthy communities through increased greening., Other stakeholders Department of Environment Land Water and Planning Metropolitan Planning Authority Local Government Department of Environment Land Water and Planning Metropolitan Planning Authority A cost-benefit analysis is currently being completed Under development

7 Programs/ Projects PROGRAM/PROJECT NAME St Kilda Road Project Fishermans Bend Redevelopment - Concept Fishermans Bend Redevelopment Service Strategy Dual pipe recycled water schemes DESCRIPTION RESPONSIBILITY TIMING/ STATUS Through the use of metering technology at the house and network level explore the drivers of peak loads and assess the role water efficiency could have in reducing demand (and hence deferring augmentation) Work with the CRC for Water Sensitive Cities to consider the liveability options related urban planning and design, green infrastructure and intelligent water and energy systems for the project. In conjunction with, local government and other stakeholders develop an integrated water management solution for the redevelopment of Fishermans Bend provision of recycled water products to 110,000 customers across the growth areas of Casey (50,000), Officer (20,000), Berwick (5,000), Cranbourne (30,000) and Pakenham (6,000) Data Analysis 2015 / 16 Application 2016 / 17 Completed CRC Water Sensitive Cities Department Environment, Land, Water and Planning Servicing Strategy 2016 Connections to date 16,500 Rainwater tanks risk framework Pakenham East Precinct Structure Plan incorporating stormwater Aquarevo Water Efficiency Undertake a review of the alternative water supply network in order to optimise the availability of the resource and minimise the cost to customers Undertake research and trials of assessing long term regulatory risk and solutions for rainwater tanks. With stakeholders, explore whole of water cycle management solutions. Focus is on alternative water use and stormwater management Business Plan, funding model and commercial arrangements completed for the demonstration project to showcase new technologies, intelligent metering, rainwater tanks for hot water service and irrigation plus innovative service solutions. Continue to enhance the education of customers and stakeholders via our new water education site 2016 Options Paper 2016 Casey Shire 2015 Concept Complete Construction 2016

8 Programs/ Projects PROGRAM/PROJECT NAME Dual Pipe Recycled Water Projects Doncaster Hill Dual pipe recycled water projects Yarra Valley Water Kalkallo stormwater harvesting project as part of Merrifield development DESCRIPTION RESPONSIBILITY TIMING/ STATUS Planning provision of recycled water to 4,000 new lots in Doncaster Hill, predominantly high rise developments. provision of recycled water projects to some 97,000 customers across Epping, Craigieburn West, Kalkallo, Wallan and Croydon. Harvest stormwater from a large commercial development near Kalkallo and treat to drinking water standard with initial re-use into the recycled water system. Manningham Council Further work is being completed by Yarra Valley Water in consultation with local Councils regarding the siting of the Recycled Water Treatment Plant Facility to supply the recycled water. Regional planning lead by DELWP has confirmed support for the continued roll out of recycled water to the suburbs located within the Northern Growth Area. The scheme s treatment plant has been constructed and will commence operation once sufficient additional development occurs within its catchment. Kalkallo retarding basin stormwater harvesting Efficiency programs residential customers Efficiency programs nonresidential customers Network Efficiency Feasibility analysis for large scale recycling of stormwater for potable use in the Kalkallo area with water harvested from the proposed Kalkallo stormwater retarding basin owned by Continue to provide customers with water efficiency education and advice programs. Continue to work with nonresidential customers to deliver water efficiency projects. Undertake active leak detection, reticulation mains renewals, pressure management, intelligent network technologies and rapid response to bursts and leaks. Metropolitan Planning Authority The options for the scheme s integrated water storage have been developed. Detailed feasibility analysis will be completed by June 2016.