Influence of Global Warming on the Florida Climate
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- Rolf Lawrence
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1 Influence of Global Warming on the Florida Climate Purpose of this presentation is to: A. give a quick review of the influence of Hadley Circulation on the south Florida climate. B. briefly review the Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) findings on rainfall in the subtropics focusing on the effect of global warming on net rainfall in Florida. C. give summary and recommendation.
2 Meridional Circulation in the Northern Hemisphere
3 Latitudes Precipitation surpluses and Deficits
4 January Hadley Circulation Seasonal Changes (Meridional Stream Function) April July October Mean Monthly and annual mean stream functions illustrating the Hadley circulation from the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis [Fig. 3 of Waliser et al (1998)]. Units are in 1010 kg s-1 s 1 and the contour level is 2x1010 kg s-1. s
5 The most significant change to
6 Drought is currently occurring for many regions projected for increased frequency of future drought by Climate Models Parched in Australia: Drought changes views on warming Drought-hit hit Italy declares emergency ROME: Italy declared a state of emergency in northern and central l regions on Friday due to fears of drought following unusually warm and dry d weather. It came a day after neighboring France imposed water rationing in several of its regions, also in fear of drought Relying on the same computer models used in the Intergovernmental l Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report released in early 2007, a recent article published in Science concluded that global warming could make droughts more common, not just in the American Southwest, but also in semiarid regions of southern Europe, Mediterranean northern Africa, and the t Middle East. Add to that Florida?
7 Latitudinal Variation of Rainfall Dry get Drier while Wet get Wetter
8 Multi-model ensemble mean P-E P of 15 state of the art global coupled atmospheric-oceanic oceanic climate models predicted these anomalies. (Lu, Vecchi, and Reichler; 2007) (~14.4 inches per year) Shading Indicates the difference between the first and the last 20 years of the 21 st Century. Black line denotes the 0-isopleth 0 (first 20 years).
9 CPC Global Reanalysis
10
11 Calendar Year Warm Phase Atlantic Multi- decadal Oscillation (1995( ) Minus Cold Phase Atlantic Multi- Decadal Oscillation ( ) 1994) Dry Season (Nov. Apr) Wet Season (May-Oct.)
12 Calendar Year Warm Phase Atlantic Multi- Decadal Oscillation ( ) Minus Warm Phase Atlantic Multi- Decadal Oscillation ( ) 1969) Dry Season Wet Season
13 Thirty El Nino Years ( ) Driest Tercile (lowest 33%): 1977, 2007 Middle Tercile (middle 33%): 1952, 1992, 2005,1924, 1969,1920, 1906, 1919 Wettest Tercile (highest 33%): 1897, 1912, 1973, 1933, 1915, 1988, 1964, 1978, 1987, 1903, 2003, 1926, 1942, 1947, 1970, 1995, 1958, 1941, 1983, 1998
14 El Nino 850 mb heights El Nino 850 mb heights First Florida Drought to Begin during El Nino?
15 Summary Analysis of satellite data indicate that the Hadley cell has been expanding poleward for at least the last 27 years (Fu et al 2006). Florida is very much in a position to be influenced by a continuing. Fifteen of state of the art coupled ocean-atmospheric atmospheric models predict net rainfall (RF minus ET is expected) in Florida to decrease significantly with global warming. A review of CPC reanalysis data since 1948 indicates net rainfall has already been affected.
16 Summary (continue) While While the initial view of the challenge facing water managers in the state of Florida may be the baffling sea level rise, a significant decrease in net rainfall may be upon us even more quickly with an equal degree of challenge.
17 Recommendations Regionally, nationally and globally steps need be to be taken to slow, halt and if possible reverse global warming. This should not n be a debatable issue. Regionally plan for more severe drought and floods. This would require that a greater amount of storm runoff to be captured and stored for the occurrence of longer, higher frequency and more intense droughts that are expected to occur in our future. Continue investing in more refined climate models and paleoclimatology to better understand. Developing improved methodologies for up scaling and downscaling climate data. Invest in technology to slow global warming.
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