IMPACT EVALUATION WITH SOCIAL NETWORK ANALYSIS METHODS.
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1 IMPACT EVALUATION WITH SOCIAL NETWORK ANALYSIS METHODS. PROGRAM FOR SUPPLY CHAIN DEVELOPMENT IN THE PROVINCE OF CÓRDOBA, ARGENTINA Elisa Giuliani (Pisa U, Italy) Andres Matta (Cordoba U, Argentina)
2 Outline Evaluation Objectives Methodology Key Results Recommendations
3 Evaluation Objectives The follow up evaluation objectives are to: (1) analyze the evolution of the inter organizational networks in the electronics cluster in Cordoba; (2) explore the benefits of the CDP, with particular reference to the changes occurred in the inter organizational networks; (3) explore whether the changes occurred in the interorganizational networks have generated beneficial effects on the performance of firms; (4) draw recommendations for policy design and at suggesting best practices that can be useful for other future policy designs.
4 Methodology Primary data (2005 and 2012) 2005: first availability of relational (network) data Contacted 100% of treated and untreated firms: ~ 80% response rate (22 treated and 16 untreated firms) Structured questionnaire w/ collection of network data Analyses of network data: descriptive and stochastic Social Network Analysis (SNA) methodologies. Focus group
5 Why SNA SNA: Measures CDP effects on Coordination SNA is based on graph theory: It measures the position of individual actors within a network It measures the way linkages are distributed within a network (i.e., the network structure). A B G D E C F A B G D E C F A B D C H E F G H E G A B D C H F G H E G G
6 The Use of SNA in CDP Evaluations Visualize and analyze the evolution of one or more inter organizational networks over time (also after the end of the policy treatment) Measure the changes in the centrality of actors and in the structure of the network over time (prior, during, after the CDP) Analyze whether given CDP projects or initiatives are associated with a higher likelihood that actors form new (or discontinue old) ties
7 Why SNA is Worth Doing SNA is a powerful tool It is easy to implement, with some basic training Typical process: 1. Define the universe or sample of firms 2. Design the questionnaire including relational questions 3. Interview firms (online survey or face to face) 4. Enter relational information into a n x n matrix 5. Analyze the data Consultants with skills in SNA can be contracted as external advisors or for technical supplement/support
8 The Questionnaire in the Cordoba CDP Different sections to collect data about characteristics of firms, performance, perceptions about the effectiveness of the CDP, etc. A separate section for the collection of Social Network data: A To which of the firms included in List 1 did you transfer business information (e.g. technological advice, marketing advice or any other kind of information that is relevant to the business) in the period ? B From which of the firms included in List 1 did your firm receive business information (e.g. technological advice, marketing advice or any other kind of information that is relevant to the business) in the period ? Please indicate the importance you attach to the information obtained in each case by marking the identified firms on the following scale: 0= none; 1= low value information, with minor impacts on your business; 2= information of moderate value; 3= information of strategic value, which generated technological change and/or better economic performance.
9 Excerpt of Our Roster EMPRESA Q 1 Q 2 1. ACCME SRL 3 2. ALARMAS KEEPER 3. ALARMIC 4. Altel srl 5. ARIES CIRCUITOS IMPRESOS 6. BOS ELECTRONICA 7. BRUNELLI 8. CEC ELECTRONICA SRL 9. CEM SRL 10. COINTECH SA 11. COMPONEX 12. CONCORD 13. CONSULFEM SA 14. CONT. AUTOM P/ IND 15. CONTROL NET 16. CORMED ELECTROMEDICINA 18. CYEL 19. DEV Servicios 20. DEXEL 21. DIGITEK SA 22. DISCAR SA 23. DITEL SRL 24. DTA.SA 25. ECUST 26. ELECTRO ALARMAS 27. ELECTRONICA DEL AUTOMOTOR 29. ELECTRONICA MEDITERRANEA SA/PENTACOM 3 2 1
10 From Roster to Matrix Firm NNE5 transfers strategic information to E18
11 Changes over Time A3 A4 E1 E2 E3 E4 E6 E7 E10 E12 E15 E16 E18 E19 E20 E21 E22 E23 E25 E27 E30 E38 E39 NE45 NE51 NE53 NS16 E5 E8 E9 E11 E13 E14 E17 E24 NE46 NE47 NE48 NE49 NE50 NE52 NNE1 NNE2 NNE3 NNE4 NNE5 NNE6 NNE7 NNE8 NNE9 NNE11 NNE12 NNE13 NNE14 NNE15 NNE16 NNE17 NNE18 NNE19 NNE20 NNE21 NNE22 NNE23
12 NE46 NNE12 NNE23 NNE16 NNE8 E8 NNE20 NNE11 NNE19 NNE3 NNE9 NNE2 E3 NNE15 NE49 NNE6 NNE21 NNE4 NNE13 NE48 E22 E1 NNE5 E7 E18 E12 A4 E39 NNE7 NNE1 NE50 E23 E24 E16 E2 E5 E10 E14 E9 E4 A3 E20 E25 E17 NE45 E21 NE47 E6 E38 E30 E15 E11 E27 NE52 NE51 NE53 E19 NS16 E13 E1NNE12 E25 E5 E8 E9 E11 E13 E14 E17 E24 NE46 NE47 NE48 NE49 NE50 NE52 NNE23 NNE20 NNE17 NNE18 NNE8 NNE11 NNE14 NNE13 E7 E39 NNE2 E20 E18 NNE7 NNE6 NNE19 NNE15 E4 NE45 NE53 NNE4 NNE1 E2 E22 E30 NNE5 NNE3 E23 E12 E16 A4 E3 NNE9 NS16 NNE22 E10 E6 NNE21 E15 E38 E27 E21 NNE22 A3 E19 NNE16 NNE18 NNE17 NNE14 NE51 Reduction of density (from 0.17 to 0.09) is due to selectivity Stabilization of some existing ties (green) + new ties (blue) Growing centralization, with central actors being mainly the same firms (Dominant Players)
13 E1 Dominant Players NNE12 E25 E5 E8 E9 E11 E13 E14 NNE20 E17 E24 NE45 NE46 NE47 NE48 NNE11 NNE4 NE53 NE49 NE50 NE52 NNE14 NNE13 NNE1 NNE23 NNE18 NNE17 NNE19 E39 NNE2 NNE5 E7 E2 NNE3 E22 E10 NNE21 E27 E20 E18 E12 E16 E23 E30 E6 NNE8 NNE15 NNE7 E3 A4 E21 NNE6 NS16 NNE9 E15 NNE16 A3 E38 E4 NNE22 E19 NE51 Mainly medium sized firms, rooted in the cluster, technology leaders in their niche markets (at the local level) Active members of the CIIECCA (often with directive responsibilities) Generate relevant spillovers to untreated firms (indirect beneficiaries in orange)
14 Is CDP Related to New Ties? Stochastic Actor Oriented Model (SAOM) Analysis shows: The activities that promoted more inter firm ties were: Centro de Abastecimientos Comunitarios y Desarrollo de Proveedores Strategic Planning Workshops (Talleres de planificacion estrategica, meant to define firms future strategies and long term activities for the development of the industry. ) Firms that participated in institutional activities (i.e. heterogeneous initiatives to promote the CIIECCA, matchmaking between firms with similar interests, to increase the visibility of the sector within the local social context) were less likely to form new ties This kind of analysis is possible only if there are at least 2 waves of relational data
15 Technology transfer linkages to Public/Private Local Institutions Technology transfer Relationships with Local Institutions ( )
16 Technology transfer linkages to Public/Private Local Institutions Technology transfer Relationships with Local Institutions originated via the CDP ( )
17 Export oriented linkages to Public/Private Local Institutions Export oriented Relationships with Local Institutions ( )
18 Export oriented linkages to Public/Private Local Institutions Export oriented Relationships with Local Institutions via the CDP ( )
19 Other results Focus group insights: CDP has saved some firms from failure Centro de Servicios Tecnológicos y de Manufactura con Tecnología de Montaje Superficial (CSMT) fundamental to increase efficiency (big success), not necessarily in the hard data Qualitative answers: General satisfaction towards the program, but mainly for generating trust and connections, untreated gauge positive experience from treated and willing to participate in the future
20 Recommendations for future CDPs Focus on projects with concrete objectives rather than on networking per se or pure match making Bottom up and flexible approach Avoid over ambitious targets Government engagement Need to agree on a code of ethics Observatory
21 Recommendations on future CDP using SNA Think dynamically : collect data over time (baseline) Agree with treated firms that they will be interviewed (at least) prior and after the CDP Think carefully about what is to be evaluated: what is to be expected from the CDP in terms of coordination and network structures? Contact the population of firms whenever possible In certain countries and industries online surveys may be an option SNA is easy and intuitive but consider having some training before starting For more sophisticated analyses, consider hiring an SNA expert for supporting your team Keep the dataset, as this can been used in the future
22 Useful References Giuliani E. & Pietrobelli C., "Social Network Analysis Methodologies for the Evaluation of Cluster Development Programs," IDB Publications 53978, Inter American Development Bank. Giuliani E. & Matta A., Impact Evaluation with Social Network Analysis Methods. Program for Supply Chain Development in the Province of Cordoba, Argentina Prepared for the Multilateral Investment Fund, Inter American Development Bank. Giuliani E., Maffioli A., Pacheco M., Pietrobelli C. & Stucchi R., Evaluating the Impact of Cluster Development Programs, Inter American Development Bank. (forthcoming)
23 Thank You For info, contact:
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