Credit Availability 20 Years after Peek and Rosengren Panel Discussion
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1 EMBARGOED UNTIL SATURDAY, JANUARY 3, 215 AT 1:15 A.M. EASTERN TIME OR UPON DELIVERY Credit Availability 2 Years after Peek and Rosengren Panel Discussion Eric S. Rosengren President & CEO Federal Reserve Bank of Boston Joe Peek Vice President Federal Reserve Bank of Boston January 3, 215 International Banking, Economics, and Finance Association American Economic Association Boston, Massachusetts bostonfed.org
2 Figure 1: Total Loans Outstanding at Commercial Banks 8. Trillions of 214 Dollars :Q1 199:Q1 1996:Q1 22:Q1 28:Q1 214:Q1 Recession Note: Total Loans Outstanding are adjusted for inflation using the GDP Deflator. Source: Commercial Bank Quarterly Call Reports, BEA, NBER, Haver Analytics
3 Figure 2: Growth in Real House Prices by Census Region 3 Percent Change from Year Earlierv NE MA ENC WNC SA ESC WSC M P :Q1 1988:Q1 1992:Q1 1996:Q1 2:Q1 24:Q1 28:Q1 212:Q1 Note: The 9 census regions are: New England (NE), Middle Atlantic (MA), East North Central (ENC), West North Central (WNC), South Atlantic (SA), East South Central (ESC), West South Central (WSC), Mountain (M) and Pacific (P). Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency, BLS, Haver Analytics
4 Figure 3: Commercial and Industrial Loans Outstanding at Commercial Banks 1.8 Trillions of 214 Dollars :Q1 199:Q1 1996:Q1 22:Q1 28:Q1 214:Q1 Recession Note: Commercial and Industrial Loans Outstanding are adjusted for inflation using the GDP Deflator. Source: Commercial Bank Quarterly Call Reports, BEA, NBER, Haver Analytics
5 Figure 4: Assets of Security Brokers and Dealers, MMMFs, and ABS Issuers Relative to Assets of U.S. Chartered Depository Institutions 12 Percent :Q1 199:Q1 1996:Q1 22:Q1 28:Q1 214:Q1 Source: Federal Reserve Board, Financial Accounts of the United States, Haver Analytics
6 Figure 5: Assets of Security Brokers and Dealers 6 Trillions of 214 Dollars :Q1 199:Q1 1996:Q1 22:Q1 28:Q1 214:Q1 Note: Figures are adjusted for inflation using the GDP Deflator. Source: Federal Reserve Board, Financial Accounts of the United States, BEA, Haver Analytics
7 Figure 6: Selected Balance-Sheet Items of Security Brokers and Dealers 6 5 Trillions of 214 Dollars Assets Security Repurchase Agreements (Liabilities) :Q1 199:Q1 1996:Q1 22:Q1 28:Q1 214:Q1 Note: Figures are adjusted for inflation using the GDP Deflator. Source: Federal Reserve Board, Financial Accounts of the United States, BEA, Haver Analytics
8 Figure 7: Money Market Mutual Fund Assets Under Management 1986:Q1-214:Q3 5. Trillions of 214 Dollars Total Prime Funds Lehman fails (Sep 15, 28) The Reserve Primary Fund breaks the buck (Sep 16, 28). 1986:Q1 1991:Q1 1996:Q1 21:Q1 26:Q1 211:Q1 Note: Figures are adjusted for inflation using the GDP Deflator. Source: imoneynet, BEA
9 Figure 8: Assets of ABS Issuers 6 Trillions of 214 Dollars :Q1 199:Q1 1996:Q1 22:Q1 28:Q1 214:Q1 Note: Figures adjusted for inflation using the GDP Deflator. Source: Federal Reserve Board, Financial Accounts of the United States, BEA, Haver Analytics
10 Figure 9: Primary Dealer Credit Facility Loans Outstanding Daily, March 17, 28 - May 12, Billions of Dollars Other (9) London Subsidiaries (4) Countrywide Securities Corp. Lehman Brothers Inc. Barclays Capital Inc. Goldman, Sachs & Co. Banc of America Securities Bear, Stearns & Co., Inc. Morgan Stanley & Co. Inc. Merrill Lynch Gov't. Sec. Citigroup Global Markets 17-Mar-8 16-Jun-8 15-Sep-8 16-Dec-8 19-Mar-9 Note: The London subsidiaries are securities subsidiaries of Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, Merrill Lynch, and Morgan Stanley. Source: Federal Reserve Board
11 Figure 1: Term Securities Lending Facility March 28, 28 - August 14, 29 Borrower Number of Loans Total Borrowed ($ Millions) Citigroup Global Market Inc ,297 RBS Securities Inc ,399 Deutsche Bank Securities Inc ,248 Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC ,535 Goldman, Sachs & Co ,2 Barclays Capital Inc ,284 Merrill Lynch Government Securities Inc ,192 UBS Securities LLC ,41 Morgan Stanley & Co. Incorporated 34 11,571 Lehman Brothers Inc ,23 Banc of America Securities LLC 23 8,189 J.P. Morgan Securities Inc ,612 BNP Paribas Securities Corp 21 34,965 Countrywide Securities Corporation 1 6,65 HSBC Securities (USA) Inc. 11 3, Cantor Fitzgerald & Co. 9 2,598 Bear, Stearns & Co., Inc. 2 2, Dresdner Kleinwort Securities LLC 2 1,73 Total 559 2,5,697 Source: Federal Reserve Board
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