Market Timing Preview

Transcription

1 Market Timing Preview For Short Term Income and Long Term Wealth Preservation Moderator: Online Trading Academy John O Donnell, CKO

2 3 Key Elements To Success The Three Key Elements in any investment strategy are: Core Strategy Futures Forex Options Probability Risk Leverage Most novice traders have this list in reverse order! Online Trading Academy

3 What Is Inflation? What is Deflation?

4 New York Grad Testimonial My name is Damen D, I came to the Online Trading Academy after suffering a tremendous loss due to hurricane and to make matters worse during the recovery effort I suffered a major back injury. Im a professional race car/ fabricator technician specializing in high end super cars. My business was destroyed and more damaging was that I would no longer be able to earn the nice living I had been accustomed to because of my injury. My father one day was in the mall and just so happen to sign up for a market timing class knowing that I have always liked the market and when I was 18 started to study for my series 7 test but drifted away and went onto pro racing. At that time I was home basically nursing a injury and at the same time depressed that I had lost everything I had known and loved for so long. My father called me and "said I'm taking you to a class I have a plus one and think you should attend". I attended market timing and instantly knew this school was the real deal. At that time I did not have the money to purchase a package so my father put it on a credit card in good faith that I would comprehend the course material and be able to pay him back. Long story short I started with pro trader then went onto futures classes. I have all asset classes since I bought the total solution but my main focus is the futures at this time. My teachers have been phenomenal starting with my coach Gabi Golan, Jeff Sacks and Eric Benson along with my pro trader teacher being Chris Manson. My future teachers have been Bob Dunn, Craig Wehls and Jossip Causic. These guy have changed my life along with watching videos of Sam Seiden. I have gone through loosing money and having no confidence in my ability to invest in the markets to having 3 losing days in 4 weeks. That's a incredible transformation! I have now since in the last 8 months gone from no direction in life to learning a amazing technique and co re strategy that has changed my life and my families lifes. I am almost completely debt free including 30k in tuition alone. I recommend this program to anyone that has a interest in the markets and is willing to put the time in to learn there strategy and curriculum. I owe a lot to these guys in the OTA and my father for being able to change my lifes direction and be a consistently profitable trader day in day out. Thank you Online Trading Academy June, 2014

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6 Intense scrutiny on market structure turns to payment for order flow (PFOF). Yesterday, Charles Schwab spoke out vehemently against high frequency trading (HFT), sustaining the intensity of the debate on HFT and market structure overall. And it appears with the spotlight on rebates/maker-taker model, the market's focus turned to payment for order flow (PFOF) of the ebrokers. The two ebrokerage stocks that we suspect have the highest exposure, AMTD and ETFC, were down 5.3% and 6.5%, respectively. SCHW, which we suspect has the lowest as a percentage of PFOF to total revenues, was only down 1.9%. ebroker PFOF Summary ($ in mm) Source: company documents and Sandler O'Neill (A) ETFC actual FY13 Order Flow Revenue (1) Sandler O'Neill estimate of Payment for Order Flow Revenue for SCHW (2) Sandler O'Neill estimate of Payment for Order Flow Revenue for AMTD is a range of 15%-17.5% of total net revenues But stocks appear to be pricing in PFOF is going away, which may or may not be true. ebrokers state that PFOF helps them to offer low commission rates and superior execution to their retail customers. AMTD reports that its clients received price improvement on ~90% of all marketable and limit order trades (100-1,900 shares) in SCHW reported similar if not higher percentages of price improved trades. Therefore, while we suspect PFOF will be part of the comprehensive, holistic review of market structure the SEC is committed to doing, there are no guarantees a complete overhaul or even a partial overhaul of the PFOF system will be mandated. Therefore, given the decline in the ebrokerage stocks yesterday, we believe they have reasonably priced in their probability weighted exposure to PFOF regulation. Even with Chuck's letter, SCHW does not intend to forego PFOF. In discussions with SCHW, they believe HFTs more or less interact with all the flow out there, so it may not be possible to avoid them. Their primary concern with order routing is to provide the best execution for their clients. SCHW makes a distinction between market making/wholesaling and HFT, which they believe is more a proprietary trading strategy

7 The Japan Debt Bomb Is Coming

8 HFTers Rule Messaging

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10 Keynes Model Spend in Red, Actual in Blue

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12 Do They Ring A Bell At The Tops of Markets?

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14 What Motivated You To Come Today? 1. Supplement Income 2. Primary Income 3. Wealth Preservation/ Growth 4. Broker Incompetence 5. Loss Recovery 6. Job Security 7. Financial Freedom

15 OTA Market Timing For Short Term Income and Long Term Wealth Preservation 4 Days Market Timing Classes Market Timing Rule Based Strategy - This is how you make money. Introduction to Stocks, Futures, Forex, Options - Which market/s are right for you? Market Timing in Any and All Markets and Time Frames One On One trading plan sessions in the class with your Education Counselor Interactive Course Workbook for Maximum Retention Ability to Bring a Spouse/Family Member

16 America the Beautiful S&P Could you buy and hold in this market? Did you need to be educated in this market? Did you need to actively manage this market?

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18 USA Stock vs Global Commodities

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21 Mutual Fund Founder Exposes Funds John Bogle: Vanguard Founder Exposes fund returns. John Bogle, founder of Vanguard, exposes managed funds. Assuming a historic 10% annual market return, let s look at how the investor would make out. With an initial investment of $10,000 for 50 years at a 10% annual return, the investor would grow his account to $1,170,000. However if you take out fund fees John of 2% a Bogle: year it leaves Vanguard the investor with Founder only $470,000. what a difference paying someone 2% can make! Invest $10,000 for 50 10% per year. Investor return = $1,170, Take out 2% per year for fees. Investor return = only $470,000 Investor supplies 100% of Capital. Fund Industry keeps $700,000 Investor keeps only $470,000 7/14/2014 Knowing this now, would you make this investment today.

22 Not so wise investments Interview with John C. Bogle Conducted on February 7, So if I do your average, what percentage of my net growth is going to fees in a 401(k) plan? Now, the financial system -- the mutual fund system in this Well, case it's -- awesome. will take about Let me two give and you a half a little percentage longer-term points example. out The of that example return, I use so you in my will book have is a an gross individual return of who 8 percent, is 20 years a net old return today of starting 5.5 percent, to accumulate and your for $1,000 will retirement. grow to That approximately person has $30,000. about 45 One years hundred to go before ten thousand retirement dollars to goes to and the then, financial if you system believe and the $30,000 to actuarial you, the tables, investor. another Think 20 about years that. to go That before means death the financial mercifully system brings put his or up her zero life percent to a close. of the So capital that's 65 and took years zero of investing. percent of If the you risk invest and $1,000 got almost at the 80 beginning percent of the that return, time and earn you, 8 the percent, investor that in $1,000 this long will time grow period, in an that investment 65-year period lifetime, to around put up 100 $140,000. percent of the capital, took 100 percent of the risk, and got only a little bit over 20 percent of the $32,465 After $11,127

23 New Normal Markets? S&P Our Grads knew a crash was likely ARE YOU READY? Who believes buy & hold will work in this market? How are mutual funds working in this market? Who knew that they can make money as the market falls? How many expect your losses to rebound by doing the same thing?

24 Worse than 2008 AND Europe? Yahoo Finance July 18, 2012 Stimulus programs can delay this day of reckoning but only for so long and only at the expense of making the eventual meltdown much worse. We ve got a much bigger collapse coming and not just of the market but of the economy The easiest way to put it is that everything you don t think could possibly happen in America will come to be.

25 The Illusion of News.. The banks & institutions are playing a game to which the novices don't even know the rules; and most don't even know the game exists.

26 Whose Money is Really Made & Lost in the Markets? The financial markets consist of buying and selling among and between two groups Institutions/Banks (very profitable) & Retail Traders/Investors (Struggle for Profits or Lose) Learn To Think and Act Like an Institution

27 Institutional 10K Filing Goldman Sachs own 10K filing for 2011, released in May of Results 237 Profitable days 15 Losing days 54 days (21%) of the time they made over 100 Million Dollars Goldman's Trading Losses only reached close to their limit one day in 2011 without breaking the limit

28 Institutional Trading Profits Bloomberg May 10, 2012 Goldman Sachs generated 57% of revenue from trading in the first quarter and had only one day of loss in that quarter, down from 17 during the preceding 3 months. Morgan Stanley said its traders lost money 4 days in the period. Bank of America reported that it had trading profits every day of the period Goldman's Trading Losses never exceeded its value at risk limit

29 How Institutions Handle Risk 2011 VaR (Value at Risk) S&P 500 Institutions take on more risk in a down market. Retail trader panic and take less risk Our Students Learn to think like an institution

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31 Who Really Makes The Money? Conventional Thinking OR REAL Profitable Thinking Supply (retail) Sold Demand (wholesale) Bought Head and Shoulders Top Double Bottom Earnings Report Trend Lines Support and Resistance News Indicators Cup and Handle RSI Pivot Points Stochastics Broker Upgrade MACD Bollinger Bands Dow Theory Fibonacci Profit: $5, This is how you make money buying and selling anything. 32

32 OTA Student Success I quit my job I make more money trading than I make at work!

33 Your Brain Is Playing Tricks!! Trading Market Demand How you make money buying and selling anything in life is EXACTLY how you make money trading! Samsung 55 LED TV Would You Buy Here? No, price is crashing No, this is a downtrend No, the news is bad No, buying is too high risk No, I am scared, nervous! Bought Would You Buy Here? Yes, the TV is on sale Yes, quickly before price goes up Yes, I would buy a few of them at these prices!

34 Market Timing with XLT Two Most Important Components To Trading Supply and Demand Human Emotion 1) Where do market prices turn? Demand (support): A price level in a market where willing demand exceeds willing supply. Supply (resistance): A price level in a market where willing supply exceeds willing demand. 2) Who is on the other side of your trade, a Pro or Novice trader? Human Emotion: The emotions of fear and greed are clearly seen on a price chart, if you know what your looking for.

35 Supply & Demand Zones Chart Where and why do market prices change direction? The Logic: Supply Why did price have to decline? Why did price have to rise? Demand The origin of motion / change in price is an equation where one of two competing forces (buyers and sellers) becomes zero at a specific price. The origin of a move in price is where supply and demand are out of balance. This is where we find low risk / high reward / high probability entry points into markets.

36 Supply & Demand Zones Chart Who is on the other side of your trade? Supply (retail) Who is buying here? Demand (wholesale) Who is selling here? The Logic: The amateur/novice trader buys at retail prices and sells at wholesale prices. The professional trader simply trades with amateurs Think Like A Pro!

37 Supply & Demand Zones Chart Supply Sell at Retail prices Low Risk Profit: Demand Buy at Wholesale prices

38 OTA Market Timing For Short Term Income

39 Investor Uncertainty USA Today June 13, % of investors realize they need to improve their understanding of income investing. Just a 3% inflation rate over 25 years can reduce their purchasing power by half 46% of investors are considering a later retirement, up 30% from a year ago

40 Live XLT Trading Session Nov. 5, 2012 XLT Supply Zone 12 Point Decline

41 Market Timing Nov. 5, 2012 $ Profit in Minutes Trade Like An Institution/Bank

42 Live Trading With Grads XLT Trading July 16, 2012 The Setup The Result OTA Demand (Institutions Buying) XLT Buying

43 Live Trading With Grads Supply & Demand Levels May 31, 2012 Low Risk Day Trading Profit $ MC Demand Zone (Institution Buy Orders) Low Risk Entry

44 Pro Picks May 7, 2012 The Setup The Result XLT Trader Profit: $1, The Profit Pro Pick Profit: $638.00

45 Supply & Demand on a Chart Supply (Retail) Amateur buyers (my short entry) XLT Odds Enhancers 1) How did price leave the level? 2) How much time did price spend at the level? Price charts contain all the information you need, if you know what your looking for. Low Risk Profit: $2,313.20

46 47 Live Trading With Grads MSFT Buying Opportunity Pre Planning Trades Live in XLT The Setup

47 48 XLT Stock: January 11 th, 2012 The Result MSFT Rallies over $0.40 over the next hour. Novice Traders Sell OTA Traders Learn to Buy Those who know what they are doing, get paid from those who don t.

48 49 XLT Stock Trading Pre Planning Trades Rule Based Trading

49 50 XLT Futures: January 24 th, 2012 The Setup Students are instructed to BUY XLT Demand Rule Based Trading Live in XLT

50 51 XLT Futures: January 24 th, 2012 Live XLT Session: January 24 th, 2012 The Result XLT Students (and institutions) BUY Novice Retail Sellers SELL Rule Based Trading Live in XLT

51 XLT Forex May 5, 2012 XLT Student Success Watch Instructor Trade Live XLT Student Profit: $1,200 In Minutes XLT Demand Zone Students Buy

52 Trading With Banks The Setup July 2 nd 2012 The Result XLT Supply XLT Demand Good news causes novice retail traders to BUY, this is a trap when that buying is at a price where banks are selling (Supply) Euro Gap up on good news (Retail traders buy) (XLT Traders Sell) Target Reached

53 OTA Market Timing Institution Bank Supply Not Supply Sold Short To Novice Buyer Day Trade Profit: $ Trading is simply a transfer of accounts from those who don t know what they're doing, into the accounts of those who do

54 The Bear Trap NASDAQ Futures 7/16/12 The Setup The Result Trap XLT Demand Globex Low XLT Entry (Buy) 55

55 Student Success 4/10/12 April 10, 2012 Create Your Own Income and Future Earns at least $4,000 per week

56 OTA Market Timing For Long Term Wealth

57 Family Net Worth Falls 40% The Wall Street Journal June 11, 2012 Families net worth fell almost 40% between 2007 and 2010, down to levels last seen in 1992, the Fed said. Between 2007 and 2010, incomes also dropped sharply Families also grew less confident about how much income they could expect in the future

58 March 2009 Performance S&P Monthly Chart The Bottom 2009 Market Bottom Call Live in XLT S&P Monthly Chart The Rally Foreclosures at all time highs 651,000 jobs lost in Feb 2009 Annual job losses worst since 1945 AIG disaster S&P Rallies over 600 points. Rule Based Market Timing

59 Student Success 10/1/2012 Sep Realized Gain: $173,000 Sep Unrealized Gain: $125,000 Account Size: $721, Gain: 24% in one month Putting OTA Tools To Work OTA Market Timing + OTA Options Consistent Short Term Income and Long Term Wealth

60 Barron s/wall Street Journal, Tues. March 15 Barron s/wall Street Journal Interview With Sam Seiden S&P Daily Chart Demand Zones Stock market was down hundreds during interview. News out of Japan was very bad, our strategy said buy.

61 Barron s/wall Street Journal, Tues. March 15 Barron s/wall Street Journal Interview With Sam Seiden S&P Daily Chart Demand Zone The Dow then rallied over 800 points from that news driven sell off.

62 2011 Performance 2011 Market Top Call Live in XLT S&P Weekly Chart The Top S&P Daily Chart The Decline S&P Falls 290 points in about 2 weeks. We Saw it coming, did you? Very Strong Q2 Earnings

63 Market Top Called April 3, 2012 Rule Based Market Timing 2012 Market Top April 3, 2012 Rest of Industry calls calls bear market May 18, 2012 NASDAQ Falls Over 300 Points From Our Supply Level Late! After the market falls!

64 Student Success I have covered the entire cost of my OTA program 6+ fold in 5 months of trading just options.

65 Who is Online Trading Academy? Where We Started Where We Are 16 Years and 37,500 Graduates 26 U.S. and 7 International Locations Partnered with Industry Leaders

66 They Did The Research For You NASDAQ PRESS RELEASE "Online Trading Academy is the premier independent educational resource for the active trading community. They are really more than just an online content provider, they are a strategic ally. Bill O'Brien, Senior Vice President of Market Data Distribution, NASDAQ. NYSE PRESS RELEASE Online Trading Academy and NYSE Liffe US to Present Gold from a Traders Perspective and How to Trade Gold and Silver in Uncertain Economic Times at LA Traders Expo. CME PRESS RELEASE Online Trading Academy Announces New Futures Trading Resource Center with Content from CME Group Online Trading Academy will work cooperatively with CME Group to deliver futures trading education via All Star trader events in cities including New York, Chicago and Los Angeles and via outreach to their global community of traders and investors.

67 Who is Online Trading Academy? Bloomberg - Asia CBS We Are The Worlds Most Trusted Name In Trading and Investing Education. Fox Business CNBC - Asia Bloomberg CNBC

68 OTA Market Timing For Short Term Income and Long Term Wealth Preservation 4 Days Market Timing Classes Market Timing Rule Based Strategy - This is how you make money. Introduction to Stocks, Futures, Forex, Options - Which market/s are right for you? Market Timing in Any and All Markets and Time Frames 1 On 1 trading plan sessions in the class with your Education Counselor Interactive Course Workbook for Maximum Retention Ability to Bring a Spouse/Family Member

69 Market Timing Class For Short Term Income and Long Term Wealth May 20-23rd 1pm EST 4:00PM EST

70 OTA Market Timing For Short Term Income and Long Term Wealth 4 Days Market Timing Class Market Timing Rule Based Strategy - This is how you make money. Introduction to Stocks, Futures, Forex, Options - Which market/s are right for you? Market Timing in Any and All Markets and Time Frames One On One trading plan sessions in the class with your Education Counselor Interactive Course Workbook for Maximum Retention Ability to Bring a Spouse/Family Member $299 Today Only Special

71 Break 5 Min

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74 Market Timing - Florida Short Term Income and Long Term Wealth Tampa/St Pete - April 19-21st Jacksonville - April th Orlando - May th 8:00 AM EST 5:00PM EST Call Today: 800/