Critical Review of the Activities on Carrying Capacity Assessment of the Province of Rimini

Transcription

1 Critical Review of the Activities on Carrying Capacity Assessment of the Province of Rimini by Dr Zoran Klaric, UNEP/MAP PAP/RAC, Co-ordinator of the PAP Action "Development of Mediterranean Tourism Harmonised with the Environment" 1. Introduction The "Tourism Carrying Capacity Assessment for the Province of Rimini" is a project launched by the Province of Rimini in Italy, and produced by a team of experts from the Province of Rimini and by "Ambiente Italia" with the support of the Priority Actions Programme Regional Activity Centre (PAP/RAC) of the Mediterranean Action Plan (MAP). The reason for including PAP is a wish to use the methodology promoted by the PAP action "Development of Mediterranean Tourism Harmonised with the Environment", and especially by the Guidelines for Carrying Capacity Assessment for Tourism in Mediterranean Coastal Areas. These Guidelines are result of a number of PAP case studies on different Mediterranean locations, including four CCA studies: for the island of Vis in Croatia, north-eastern part of the island of Rhodes in Greece, Lalzi Bay on Albanian coast, and Marsa Matrouh Fuka coastal zone on the Egyptian Mediterranean coast. Before the Rimini CCA study, another CCA study using the PAP methodology was prepared for the Malta archipelago, but exclusively by the local team of experts and without direct PAP support. Therefore the Rimini CCA study is especially important as the first study using PAP methodology in a highly developed country of the European Union, and for a riviera-type, matured and saturated tourism destination. Although this study has some similarity with the Maltese CCA considering the saturation problem and primarily a local team involved, it is different considering direct PAP support and indirect involvement of important international institutions such as the European Union, the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) and the World Tourism Organisation (WTO). The action started in the year 2000 and was initiated by the Province of Rimini, and guided by "Ambiente Italia" and their partners. At the initial stage of work PAP was also involved, on one hand in order to present their CCA concept and on the other to assist in the formulation of the contents of the Rimini CCA study and listing of the necessary data. Another important aspect of the involvement of all available know-how in CCA was the organisation of the International Conference on Sustainable Tourism in Rimini in June 2001, which involved the European Commission, Italian ministries of Environment, Industry, and Tourism, as well as UNEP, WTO and several NGOs having great experience in sustainable tourism development. The timing of the Conference was very suitable considering the work on the Rimini CCA, because it was organised after the necessary data for the study had been collected, but before the definition of the development scenarios which is the most critical phase of the work on a CCA. PAP support to the Conference was in line with the work on the Rimini CCA. It included the presentation of the overall PAP activity on CCA to a wide international auditorium, and a comparison of the Rimini case with all the other locations in which carrying capacity according to the PAP methodology had been assessed. The Conference confirmed the justification to continue the work on the Rimini CCA according to the PAP definition of sustainable

2 2 development as a development within the carrying capacity of the ecosystem. It also confirmed the necessity to use a flexible approach to the tourism CCA based on the confrontation of different tourism development scenarios from developers to ecologists points of view, because it promotes the sustainable tourism option as the logical result of the CCA. In other words, the experts working on the Rimini CCA decided to work according to the PAP approach that has been accepted by almost all Mediterranean countries in the PAP Guidelines Workshop in Split in 1996 as the most suitable one for the majority of the Mediterranean countries. 2. Review of the presented work on development scenarios At this moment, the work on the Rimini CCA is reaching the most critical phase, because the last document received by PAP includes the development scenarios based on a very detailed data analysis. Such detailed analysis is also a new moment on the work on CCA according to PAP, because previous studies did not have technical or financial prerequisites for such a detailed analysis, except for the Malta CCA which is rather similar to the Rimini case. Another specific moment is the fact that the data concerning indicators linked to the political situation and economy were renamed into so-called framework indicators, and related only to tourism, generally the number of beds and overnights. That can be explained by a tendency to avoid any kind of political influence on the work on CCA, which is very important concerning the fact that tourism represents the key element of the economy of the Province of Rimini. Therefore, the number of proposed scenarios in the Rimini case is bigger than in any other example of CCA based on the PAP methodology, with the remark that all the scenarios can be explained as possible, although practically all of them are based on theoretical forecasts using different parameters. All six scenarios are explained in detail, presenting consequences on all three geographical levels the coastal zone, the hinterland, and the whole Province of Rimini. The basic elements of those six scenarios can be summarised as follows: Scenario 1 Present day, year 2000 The basic characteristics of this scenario are high tourism pressure on the narrow coastal belt, high seasonality of tourism and small share of foreign tourists in comparison with other Italian tourism regions as an indicator of inflexibility of tourism product. The main consequences of this scenario are low profit rate during whole year, especially in low-quality accommodation capacities, and stress by local population considering different ways of life in summer and winter seasons. That can be documented with the general number of more than 30,000 tourists per sq. km in August in the coastal zone, and the ratio between tourists and local population between 20 and 50 in all coastal municipalities. This scenario is based on a total of 15,824,000 overnights (in the year 2000) for a total of 136,800 beds. Besides an enormous concentration of 99 per cent of accommodation capacities of the province of Rimini in the narrow coastal zone, it must also be mentioned that 95 per cent of the accommodation capacities of the coastal area refers to hotels, and in the hinterland 50 per cent to rural tourism. That shows not only a high pressure on the environment, but also the existence of a uniformed, and therefore unsustainable tourism product. Scenario 2 Inertia, year 2010 This scenario simulates the forecasted situation in 2010 based on the continuation of the existing trends and policies. Those policies include some stimulating measures towards extending the tourism season, but based on the same number of accommodation capacities. This scenario includes a slight growth of tourism in the hinterland and some growth of tourism in the coastal

3 3 zone during winter season based on various manifestations, congresses, etc. The tourism intensity and structure in the coastal belt in summer season should remain the same as in previous years, with remark that the total number of overnights will rise up to 17,657,000, or 11.6 per cent more than in the year The principal effect of this scenario is a general growth of the economy due to the rise of the number of tourists with the same capacities and labour force, caused by a higher level of employment in time. At the same time the pressure on the environment will remain as in the previous scenario, because bigger demands for water, electricity, etc. are referring to the low season, when the consumption is smaller anyway than in the peak summer season. This would mean also smaller stress for the local population, although the summer pressure will still exist. Scenario 3 Tourism development in the hinterland, year 2010 The scenario of tourism development in the hinterland can be considered as hypothetical, because it simulates the situation in which the number of beds and overnights in the coastal area of the Province of Rimini will remain the same in the year 2010 as it was in the year 2000, while only the hinterland tourism will grow. Although this situation is hypothetical for the coastal zone, it can be considered as possible for the hinterland, and is based on the growth of accommodation capacities in the hinterland owing to a strong marketing campaign on domestic and foreign markets, showing a growing interest in rural tourism. Considering zero growth in the coastal area, this scenario forecasts less intensive growth of tourism than the previous scenario (total 16,024,000, or only 1.3 per cent more than in the year 2000), in spite of the growth in the hinterland of more than five times. Due to the proposed numbers and spatial structure of the development, this scenario cannot cause any important change of the existing negative characteristics of tourism in the Province of Rimini, especially regarding the stress for the local population and pressure on the infrastructure. It can only change the situation in the hinterland where considering the existing level of tourism development, even such strong growth rate cannot cause any problems regarding the environment and the economy. That is caused by the fact that even a growth of tourism in the hinterland of more than 500 per cent will still mean that more than 98 per cent of tourism will remain in the coastal zone. Scenario 4 Decreasing the tourism pressure on the coastline, year 2010 This scenario is focused on the reduction of the number of overnights in the coastal areas during the peak season, with all other parameters being the same as for the year This scenario is also hypothetical, because it is not likely that such situation is possible. On the contrary, it is more realistic that a decrease in the number of overnights could happen in other months. This scenario could be achieved only by using some drastic measures by the local government, water reductions, etc., which is not likely to happen considering the importance of tourism for the economy of the Province of Rimini. The total number of overnights using this scenario is forecasted at 14,932,000 or 5.4 per cent less than in the year Therefore, this scenario is seen only as a kind of method for verifying possible positive effects for the whole society of the Province of Rimini regarding the reduction of the pressure on the environment and stress for the local population. However, although this scenario is not completely realistic, it can happen that the total number of accommodation capacities will decrease in the coastal area and rise in the hinterland, if some fiscal measures are undertaken, and/or the market for the Rimini tourism product is reduced.

4 4 Scenario 5 Re-qualification of tourism in the coastal zone, year 2010 The scenario of re-qualification of tourism in the coastal zone is based on the forecasted situation of upgrading of the existing accommodation capacities in the coastal area, and no change in the hinterland area by the year This change would mainly include the abandonment of 1 and 2 star hotels or their upgrading to 3 star hotels, with a parallel process of upgrading some 3 and 4 star hotels to 4 and 5 stars. This scenario can be considered as partially realistic, because the process of upgrading capacities has been evident in the past ten years. Although higher quality of the capacities usually produces better usage in the low season, this scenario forecasts a very limited growth up to 15,824,000 overnights in the year 2010, or only 0.3 per cent more than in the year 2000, based on slightly better use of the accommodation capacities in low season and a slight decrease in the peak season. Those characteristics could produce a slight growth of the economy owing to the better financial effects due to a better quality of the accommodation, and a slight decrease of the stress for the local population caused by better seasonality. The big problem of this scenario is higher pressure on the environment caused by more intensive use of infrastructure due to the higher quality of accommodation capacities, especially regarding water and sewage. Scenario 6 Growth of hotel offer in the coastal area, year 2010 The last presented scenario is basically similar to the previous one, with the main difference that re-qualification of tourism in the coastal zone based on upgrading of the existing accommodation capacities is not followed by a serious reduction of the low quality accommodation. Neither this scenario forecasts a change in the hinterland area by the year The Scenario 6, as well as the Scenario 5, has included re-establishment of tourism in some abandoned houses in order to upgrade the total urbanistic situation in the Province, especially in the coastal zone. This scenario can also be considered as partially realistic, but it forecasts a more intensive growth, up to 16,204,000 overnights in the year 2010, or 2.4 per cent more than in the year The situation shown in the Scenario 6 could also produce growth of the economy, but even bigger stress for the local population caused by high concentration of tourism in the peak season. The pressure on the environment caused by this scenario will also increase due to intensive use of infrastructure. 3. Conclusions and proposals for follow-up From the presented scenarios it is evident that huge effort has been made regarding the collection of all the necessary data and the analysis of the consequences of each scenario. The work on the scenarios has included the analysis of almost all the possible variations, shown in a specific methodology of forecasting positive, negative and neutral consequences. This methodology, as well as the detailed analysis of all the theoretically possible scenarios can be considered as a very innovative methodology, fully fitting into the framework of the PAP methodology of CCA. Nevertheless, all the six scenarios are based on theoretical models, offering solutions which are only partially realistic. Namely, only the Scenario 3 forecasts an increase of accommodation capacities in the hinterland, only the Scenario 4 envisages a decrease of capacities in the coastal zone, and only the Scenario 6 an increase of the accommodation capacities on the coastline. In all other scenarios the total number of the accommodation capacities remains the same, and in almost all the proposed scenarios even the total number of overnights is kept at the same level, both in the coastal zone and the hinterland, or in the peak season referring to the low season. Therefore the problem of choosing among the scenarios is still open, because from the material

5 5 presented it is not only unclear which of those scenarios can be understood as the most sustainable, but also which can be considered as realistic. Although the final charts, showing positive, negative and neutral consequences of each scenario suggest some of the scenarios as completely unsustainable, some relatively sustainable and some generally sustainable, it seems that the authors of the study are trying to avoid to name the final proposal or proposals. That was stated in the introduction of the received material, by the formulation that all the presented scenarios should be presented to the general public, especially stakeholders and politicians, who have to decide which of those solutions should be finally accepted. But considering the fact that none of the scenarios is generally realistic, it is a question what decisions can be made, because at the end some solution must be chosen. Together with some concrete proposals regarding spatial structure of tourism development and typology of the accommodation capacities and targeted markets this is the main purpose of carrying capacity assessment. Considering the overall experience of the Rimini team and their definite capability to propose such a solution according to the data collected, that should be the next step in the CCA process. Therefore from this point of view it can be suggested that from the presented scenarios some combinations should be made (for example, a combination of the Scenario 3 Tourism development in the hinterland, and Scenario 5 Re-qualification of tourism in the coastal zone), so that decision makers could choose not between the theoretical models, but between some possible options. Namely, if one or two scenarios are marked as sustainable, they should be argued as the only acceptable, and those unsustainable or relatively sustainable as unacceptable. This decision is definitely hard, but without it the whole work will remain unfinished.