MANITOBA 2010 A YEAR IN REVIEW

Transcription

1 MANITOBA 2010 A YEAR IN REVIEW M ANITOBA B UREAU OF S TATISTICS RIGHT ANSWERS RIGHT NOW January 27, 2011

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3 TABLE OF CONTENTS Page Executive Summary 1 Overall Economic Performance 3 Population 5 Labour Market 7 Income 9 Inflation 10 Housing 11 Appendix: Table 1 13 Appendix: Table 2 14

4 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY In 2010, the Manitoba economy had a relatively successful year. Of 28 economic indicators, Manitoba exceeded the national performance for 14 (50%). Relative growth in 2010 was affected by Manitoba's nation-leading performance in Over the last two years, Manitoba has outperformed the Canada level for 21 out of the 28 indicators, a 75% rate (see Appendix: Tables 1 and 2, pages 13 and 14). The following are some 2010 performance highlights. Overall Economic Performance: Manitoba economy grew 2.4%, following a 0.1% decrease in Growth over last two years was 2.2%, the second best increase among provinces. Economic performance was lead by a sharp climb in personal expenditures, up 4.3%. Weakness was concentrated in the Export Sector. Total Exports of Goods and Services decreased by 3.7%, with International Exports of Goods and Services down 6.7% and Interprovincial Exports of Goods and Services down 0.8%. Sectoral growth was concentrated, in Retail Trade (5.3%), Wholesale Trade (4.8%) and Transportation (3.8%). Weakness was confined to Agriculture (-8.0%) and Manufacturing (-1.1%). Labour Productivity grew by 1.2%, third highest provincially and well above Canada's 0.1% growth. Over the last six years, Manitoba has seen the largest increase in labour productivity at 9.3% and more than double the national increase of 4.0%. Population: Manitoba's population grew by 17,400, the largest calendar year gain since at least A total of 11,800 more people came to Manitoba than left for other jurisdictions. This was the largest twelve-month net inflow since at least An estimated 16,000 immigrants arrived in Manitoba last year, representing the largest inflow since Manitoba is getting younger while Canada is getting older. For the second straight year, Manitoba has proportionately less persons 65 and over than Canada. This reverses a longterm trend where Manitoba's senior's population share was considerably larger than Canada's. The decade of the 2000's has seen Manitoba's population grow to close to 96,000 persons. This is more than double the previous ten year period when population grew by less than 43,000. Manitoba Bureau of Statistics 1 January 27, 2011

5 Labour Market: Employment in 2010 reached an all-time record level of 619,300 persons. Additionally record high levels were recorded for Labour Force and the Participation Rate. Since December 2009, 16,200 additional jobs were added to the economy, while the labour force grew by 13,500. Strong growth occurred in Private Sector jobs (+13,200) and Fulltime jobs (+17,700). Income and Inflation: Personal Income rose 2.5% last year. The last five years have seen a 16.6% increase. On a per capita basis, Personal Income grew by 1.2% to over $29,800 per person. The five-year growth in Personal Income totaled 11.2%. Manitoba consumers experienced the lowest inflation rate in the nation at 0.8%, with Canada at 1.8%. A contributing factor was gasoline prices. The average price per litre throughout last year in Winnipeg was 97.3 cents, the second lowest after Calgary's 93.1 cents. December 2010 Probe Research/Jory Capital/Winnipeg Free Press poll of 1,000 Manitobans had more individuals saying they had a good financial year than having a downturn. Nearly four in ten Manitobans expect to be better off financially in Housing: Manitoba housing prices rose 10.2% last year to an average sale price of $217,400. The last 10 years have seen housing prices increase by 150%. Vacancy rates for rental properties remain extremely tight, with annual average rates ranging between 1.0% to 1.7% since Housing starts in urban centres were close to 4,000 units in This was the highest level in 22 years. Starts were up 42.2% (2,789 to 3,966) over the 2009 level, with single family units increasing by 23.9% (1,874 to 2,321) and multiples increasing by 79.8% (915 to 1,645). The Year Ahead: Over the last number of years, the Manitoba economy has been performing reasonably well relative to that of other provinces. Currently, Private Sector forecasters suggest the Manitoba economy will grow by 2.7% in This would be the third highest increase among the provinces and above Canada's growth of 2.5%. Manitoba Bureau of Statistics 2 January 27, 2011

6 Overall Economic Performance The Manitoba Bureau of Statistics (MBS) estimates that the provincial economy grew 2.4% in 2010 following a 0.1% decrease in real terms in In 2010 the provincial economy generated $42.9 billion of real expenditures (at market prices), a $1.0 billion increase from After leading the country in 2009, Manitoba s projected real growth of 2.4% for 2010 is below the 2.9% estimated for Canada as a whole by private sector forecasters (January, 2011). Newfoundland and Labrador REAL GDP AT MARKET PRICES TWO-YEAR COMPARISON (2010 / 2008) Québec Prince Edward Island Manitoba Nova Scotia New Brunswick British Columbia Canada Ontario Alberta Saskatchewan % Change Source: M anitoba Bureau of Statistics, private sector forecasts, and Statistics Canada Over the past two years, Manitoba s real GDP growth was 2.2%, a performance that ranks as the second best growth rate in the country, marginally behind Quebec and P.E.I. at 2.3. Manitoba s 2010 economic performance was led by a sharp climb in personal expenditures which rose 4.3% in real terms to hit $28.9 billion. Manitoba s real Final Domestic Demand (RFDD) increased 3.5% to $48.5 billion. RFDD differs from real GDP in that it excludes net exports (i.e. exports minus imports) and changes in the value of inventories Manitoba s labour productivity (e.g. output per hours worked) grew by 1.2% in 2010, the second highest rate among the provinces and well above the 0.1% gain for the national level. Since 2004, the province s productivity levels have increased by 9.3%, the highest growth of any province and well above second place Newfoundland and Labrador s 6.4% and Canada s 4.0% respective increases. Sector Performance Looking at individual sector performances in 2010, we note that Manitoba s retail rose a robust 5.3% in real terms after a 1.4% increase in Manitoba s wholesale sector also exhibited strength in 2010 with a 4.8% increase in real GDP. MANITOBA REAL GDP BY INDUSTRY (TOP TEN) Agriculture Construction Education Services Wholesale Trade Transportation & Warehousing Public Administration Retail Trade Health Care & Social Services Manufacturing F.I.R.E. * Real GDP At Basic Prices 2010 / % Change * Finance & Insurance & Real Estate & Rental & Leasing ** M anagement Of Companies & Enterprises & Administrative & Other Support ***Professional, Scientific & Technical Services Source: M anitoba Bureau of Statistics Manitoba Bureau of Statistics 3 January 27, 2011

7 This followed a 0.7% rise in Finance, insurance, real estate and leasing sector s real growth reached 3.3% in 2010 after a 2.1% increase in On the downside, after unusually wet conditions and a surge in unseeded acres, Manitoba s agriculture sector saw an 8.0% decline in real GDP in MANUFACTURING SHIPMENTS January to November 2010/2009 Manitoba s manufacturing sector, buffeted by weak export markets and a Canadian currency approaching par with the U.S. dollar, saw a 1.1% decline in real GDP in This was accompanied by a gradual improvement in the second half of the year but comes on the heels of a 9.2% drop in real GDP in at the height of the global recession. Taking a look at 2010 year-to-date manufacturing shipments (up to November), Manitoba experienced a 2.6% decline to rank eighth among the provinces. This follows a 10.7% decline in Retail % Change With one more month s data for year still pending, Manitoba presently leads all provinces in retail sales growth in 2010 (up to November) at 5.7%. This comes on the heels of a -0.4% drop last year, the first recorded in more than twenty years NB NFLD ONT ALTA NS CAN BC QUE MAN SASK PEI Source: Statistics Canada Over the past five years overall consumer spending in Manitoba has been supported by strong income growth, low unemployment, rising property values and of late near record low interest rates. Since 2005 Manitoba retail sales growth ranks second among the provinces at an estimated 27.4% behind only Saskatchewan s 38.9% % Change 5.7 RETAIL SALES January to November 2010/ MAN ALTA QUE BC NS CAN PEI ONT NB NFLD SASK Source: Statistics Canada By comparison, retail sales growth for Canada as a whole was 19.3% for the same time period. Manitoba Bureau of Statistics 4 January 27, 2011

8 Population Record Breaking Population Growth Thousands ANNUAL POPULATION GROWTH Manitoba, 1980 to Source: M anitoba Bureau of Statistics and Statistics Canada MBS estimates 1 Manitoba s population to be 1,244,100 as of January 1, 2011 for a total increase of 17,400 over the last 12 months. This is the largest calendar year gain since the current system of estimating population began in Manitoba s remarkable gain of more than 17,000 individuals accelerated our growth rate to 1.42% which is the largest annual percent change since at least More People Choosing Manitoba as a Place to Live, Work and Grow Net migration to Manitoba is expected to reach 11,800 people in This is the largest twelve month net inflow since at least 1972 and close to 2,000 more than in 2009 which had the second largest. MBS estimates that Manitoba will have welcomed approximately 16,000 immigrants in This is the largest number of immigrants to arrive in Manitoba since 1946 and far beyond the 13,520 newcomers in The Provincial Nominee Program continues to drive immigration contributing more than threequarters of all immigrants Thousands ANNUAL NET MIGRATION Manitoba, 1980 to Source: Manitoba Bureau of Statistics and Statistics Canada MBS expects Manitoba to record a net loss of 2,400 persons to the other provinces and territories in This is similar to the net outflow reported for Births are continuing their upward trend from 2004 and are expected to surpass 16,000 in 2010, leading to a natural increase (births minus deaths) of 5,600 persons in Based on the Statistics Canada quarterly estimates to the third quarter of 2010 and the MBS estimate for the fourth quarter of Manitoba Bureau of Statistics 5 January 27, 2011

9 A Younger Manitoba in 2010 Not only is Manitoba observing record breaking population growth but we re not as old as we used to be. The median age of Manitobans is decreasing. As of July 1, 2010, the median age in Manitoba was 37.7 years, down slightly from one year ago. At the national level the median age grew from 39.5 to 39.7 in 2010, a full two years older than Manitoba s. As of July 1, 2010, 13.8% of all Manitobans were aged 65 or over. This is 0.3 percentage points lower than the national share 14.1%. The previous year was the first time since modern day record keeping began in 1971 that this occurred, and 2010 continues this trend Percent POPUPATION AGED 65 AND OVER Percent Share of Total Manitoba and Canada, 1980 to Caps off a Decade s Worth of Strong Population Growth Since 2001, our population has increased by 95,700 persons, more than double the increase of the previous ten year period when it grew by 42, Migration is the main driver of Manitoba s remarkable growth. Source: Statistics and Statistics Canada Since 2001, the total of all movements between Manitoba and other jurisdictions was a net gain of 43,100 individuals. In the preceding ten years Manitoba lost 20,300 individuals on a net basis. Net gains from international migration totaled 75,900, three times the net gain of 24,200 in the preceding ten years. On an interprovincial basis, our net interchange with other provinces totaled -42,800 from 2001 to 2010 compared to -46,700 from 1991 to MIGRATION COMPONENTS OF POPULATION GROWTH Thousands Manitoba, 1991 to 2000 VS 2001 to Net Interprovincial Migration Net International Migration Total Net Migration Total Population Growth Source: Statistics Canada Manitoba Bureau of Statistics 6 January 27, 2011

10 Labour Market The Manitoba Labour Market sets a Record Breaking Year in 2010 Employment in Manitoba averaged 619,300 persons in 2010, the highest level ever recorded and a 2.0% hike over Similarly, the labour force was also at an all-time high averaging 654,100 individuals in 2010, a full 2.2% higher than the 2009 level of 640,200. As a result, the average participation rate in Manitoba was 69.9% in 2010 which also broke the record for highest ever since at least Manitoba Jobs End on a High Note in 2010 Thousands TOTAL JOBS ADDED BY SECTOR AND TYPE Manitoba December 2009 to December 2010 Private Full-time Over the last twelve months, December 2009 to December 2010, Manitoba has gained 16,200 jobs (+2.7%), with an associated labour force gain of 13,500 (+2.1%). Full-time jobs have increased by 17,700 (+3.7%), which represents all of the job growth Public Source: Statistics Canada Labour Force Survey Part-time Similarly, job growth in the private sector has been very strong. Since December 2009, the private sector has created an additional 13,200 jobs (+3.0%) which represents eight of every ten jobs added. Manitoba Outpaces Canada and most other provinces Since December 2009, Manitoba has grown at a much faster pace than Canada with respect to the labour force, total jobs, private sector employment and full-time jobs. Compared to the other provinces, Manitoba performed very well; 2 nd, 3 rd, 1 st, and 2 nd respectively. Factoring in the lowest total unemployment rate and the third lowest youth unemployment rate Manitoba s labour market ended 2010 as one of the strongest in the country. TABLE 1.TWELVE MONTH CHANGE: DECEMBER 2009 TO DECEMBER 2010 MANITOBA MANITOBA CANADA RANK* LABOUR FORCE 2.1% 1.3% 2 EMPLOYMENT 2.7% 2.2% 3 PRIVATE EMPLOYMENT 3.0% 1.7% 1 FULL-TIME EMPLOYMENT 3.7% 1.9% 2 *COMPARED TO THE OTHER PROVINCES, TERRITORIES ARE NOT INCLUDED SOURCE: PREPARED BY MBS BASED ON DATA FROM STATISTICS CANADA LABOUR FORCE SURVEY Manitoba Bureau of Statistics 7 January 27, 2011

11 Manitoba s Labour Market holds Steady during the Economic Downturn Similarly, since the global economic downturn began back in October 2008, Manitoba has had one the strongest labour markets in Canada. If we compare December 2010 with October 2008, our employment growth of 2.0% far outweighs Canada's increase of 0.3% and is the second best performance of any province. The labour force has grown by 3.1%, nearly double the 1.8% increase at the national level and the 2 nd strongest growth in the country. Percent EMPLOYMENT Percent Change October 2008 to December 2010 Percent LABOUR FORCE Percent Change October 2008 to December 2010 NL MB PE QC SK CA ON BC AB NB NL MB PE QC SK CA ON BC AB NB NS NS Source: M anitoba Bureau of Statistics Source: M anitoba Bureau of Statistics Similarly full-time employment is up 1.6%, the third best increase among the provinces. Canada has lost 0.5% of its full-time jobs since October Private sector jobs are also up with an increase of 1.7%, compared to -0.5% at the national level and made Manitoba the 2 nd best provincial performer. TABLE 2.TWENTY SIX MONTH CHANGE: OCTOBER 2008 TO DECEMBER 2010 MANITOBA MANITOBA CANADA RANK* LABOUR FORCE 3.1% 1.8% 2 EMPLOYMENT 2.0% 0.3% 2 PRIVATE EMPLOYMENT 1.7% -0.5% 2 FULL-TIME EMPLOYMENT 1.6% -0.5% 3 *COMPARED TO THE OTHER PROVINCES, TERRITORIES ARE NOT INCLUDED SOURCE: PREPARED BY MBS BASED ON DATA FROM STATISTICS CANADA LABOUR FORCE SURVEY Manitoba Bureau of Statistics 8 January 27, 2011

12 Income Milions of Dollars 38,000 35,000 32,000 29,000 26,000 23,000 20,000 Personal Income REAL INCOME PERSONAL AND PERSONAL DISPOSABLE Personal Disposable Income P Source: M anitoba Bureau of Statistics In 2010, Manitoba real personal income rose 2.5% to $36,865 million from $35,953 million in Over the last five years, Manitoba real personal income has increased 16.6% from $31,618 million in 2005 while real personal disposable income has risen even faster, climbing 19.4% during the same time period. 33,000 Dollars REAL INCOME PER CAPITA PERSONAL AND PERSONAL DISPOSABLE Looking at real income changes on a per capita basis, real personal income climbed 1.2% in 2010 to $29,840 from $29,480 in ,000 27,000 Personal Income 24,000 Personal 21,000 Disposable Income 18, P Source: M anitoba Bureau of Statistics This is up 11.2% since 2005 when it stood at $26, 834. Real personal disposable income per capita increased 13.9% from 2005 to By any of the metrics listed, the incomes of Manitobans have risen significantly over the past five years. A December 2010 Probe Research/Jory Capital/Winnipeg Free Press poll of 1,000 Manitobans found that those who said 2010 had been a good financial year for their household outnumbered those experiencing a downturn. This represented a reversal of mid-2009 numbers. For 2011, nearly 4 of 10 Manitobans say they will be better off financially compared to one-in-twelve expecting to be worse off. TABLE 3. MANITOBA PERSONAL INCOME, PER CAPITA INCOME %Change P 2010 / /2009 REAL PERSONAL INCOME ($ Millions) 31,618 32,771 34,418 35,672 35,953 36, REAL PERSONAL DISPOSABLE INCOME ($ Millions) 24,752 25,857 27,084 28,314 28,853 29, REAL PERSONAL INCOME PER CAPITA ($) 26,834 27,679 28,835 29,591 29,480 29, REAL PERSONAL DISPOSABLE INCOME PER CAPITA ($) 21,007 21,839 22,691 23,487 23,657 23, Source: Manitoba Bureau of Statistics and Statistics Canada P = Projected Manitoba Bureau of Statistics 9 January 27, 2011

13 Consumer Price Index (Inflation) In 2010, Manitoba inflation rate, as measured by changes in the province s Consumer Price Index or CPI, was the lowest of all provinces at 0.8%. This is compared to 1.8% for Canada as a whole. % Change CONSUMER PRICE INDEX, ALL-ITEMS January to December 2010/ MAN ALTA QUE SASK BC CAN PEI NB NS NFLD ONT Source: Statistics Canada In the five years since 2005, Manitoba s CPI has risen 7.9% the third smallest increase among the provinces behind only Quebec and British Columbia which recorded 7.4% and 7.1% respectively. During this period, Canada s CPI rose 8.9% while Alberta and Saskatchewan experienced the greatest inflationary change with their provincial CPI rising 13.5% and 11.0% respectively. Gasoline Prices In its recent publication Fuel Focus (January 2011), Natural Resources Canada provided a retail gasoline overview for select Canadian cities including annual average pump prices (per litre) for Of the cities cited, Calgary had the lowest price at 93.1 cents and with Winnipeg second at 97.3 cents Vancouver Cents / Litre Calgary REGULAR GASOLINE PUMP PRICES IN SELECTED CITIES Annual Average for Regina Winnipeg 97.3 Source: Natural Resources Canada Toronto Montreal Saint John Halifax Charlottetown St. John's Canada For Canada as a whole the average pump price was cents in 2010 while the Vancouver claimed the highest gasoline costs last year (excluding the territories) at cents. Manitoba Bureau of Statistics 10 January 27, 2011

14 Housing With solid GDP and income growth underpinned by the largest population increases in four decades, demand for housing in Manitoba has taken off. Manitoba house prices*, for example, have seen a 150 % rise in the last ten years from an average sales price of $87,200 in 2000 to $217,400 in Last year s increase alone stood at 10.2% up from $197,333 in MANITOBA AVERAGE HOUSE PRICES* 2000 to 2010 $ Thousands *Average of Winnipeg, Brandon, Portage La Prairie, and Thompson Source: M anitoba Real Estate Association According to CMHC vacancy rates for rental properties have remained extremely tight across most parts of the province for a number of years. In the Winnipeg rental market, for example, annual vacancy rates have averaged between 1.0% and 1.7% since 2002, with 2010 estimated at 1.2%. For 2011, this is projected to ease marginally to 1.4%. In response to supportive market conditions, including of late record low interest rates, new home construction has accelerated both on the single family dwelling side, and even more notably, with the building of large numbers of multi-family units. The latter includes apartments, condos and row houses. To illustrate, housing starts in Manitoba urban centres (i.e. population 10,000+) hit 3,966 units in 2010, the highest total in twenty-two years (1988) and more than two and a half times the 1,499 starts recorded in The 2010 figure also represented a 42.2% increase over the 2,789 starts recorded in ,000 Units MANITOBA URBAN HOUSING STARTS 2000 to 2010 Looking at the details, the construction of multi-family units has risen from a mere 141 units in 2000 to 1,645 in The 2010 performance represents an almost twelvefold increase and was the highest number of multi-family starts since ,000 Total 3,000 Singles 2,000 1,000 Multiples Source: Canada Motgage and Housing Corporation On the single family side, housing starts increased 23.9% in 2010 to 2,321 up from 1,874 units in This was the second highest total since 1988 only surpassed by the 2,377 units constructed in For comparison purposes, the 2010 figure was more than 70% higher than the 2000 total of 1,358. Manitoba Bureau of Statistics 11 January 27, 2011

15 APPENDIX Manitoba Bureau of Statistics 12 January 27, 2011

16 TABLE 1: MANITOBA PERFORMANCE RANKINGS 2010 CURRENT SUMMARY (AS OF JANUARY 25, 2011) AT OR ABOVE CANADIAN AVERAGE: % CHANGE % CHANGE CURRENT DATEMANITOBA CANADA MB RANK Retail Trade Nov Consumer Price Index Dec Youth Unemployment Rate (S.A) Dec Total Unemployment Rate (S.A.) Dec Urban Housing Starts Dec Manufacturing Employment Dec Labour Productivity Housing Starts In All Areas 3rdQ Part-Time Employment Dec Total Employment (S.A.) Dec Private Employment Dec Population Oct Public Capital Investment Farm Cash Receipts 3rdQ BELOW CANADIAN AVERAGE: Consumer Bankruptcies Oct Public Employment Dec Full-Time Employment Dec Building Permits Nov GDP $2002 (Avg. of Forecasts) Manufacturing Shipments Nov Youth Employment Dec Average Weekly Earnings Oct Construction Work Total Exports Nov Business Bankruptcies Oct Wholesale Trade Nov Capital Investment Private Capital Investment Source: Manitoba Bureau of Statistics Manitoba Bureau of Statistics 13 January 27, 2011

17 TABLE 2: MANITOBA PERFORMANCE RANKINGS LAST TWO YEARS COMPARISON PERCENT GROWTH SINCE 2008 (AS OF JANUARY 26, 2011) AT OR ABOVE CANADIAN AVERAGE: % CHANGE % CHANGE CURRENT DATEMANITOBA CANADA MB RANK Public Employment Dec Consumer Bankruptcies Oct Full-Time Employment Dec Housing Starts In All Areas 3rdQ Public Capital Investment Total Employment (S.A.) Dec Total Unemployment Rate (S.A.) Dec Youth Unemployment Rate (S.A.) Dec Labour Productivity Construction Work Consumer Price Index Dec GDP $2002 (Avg. of Forecasts) Retail Trade Nov Capital Investment Farm Cash Receipts 3rdQ Manufacturing Employment Dec Population Oct Private Employment Dec Urban Housing Starts Dec Youth Employment Dec Building Permits Nov BELOW CANADIAN AVERAGE: Part-Time Employment Dec Business Bankruptcies Oct Average Weekly Earnings Oct Manufacturing Shipments Nov Total Exports Nov Wholesale Trade Nov Private Capital Investment Source: Manitoba Bureau of Statistics Manitoba Bureau of Statistics 14 January 27, 2011

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