VOTING RECORDS AND VALIDATED VOTING STUDIES. CAROL A. CASSEL University of Alabama. Previous Research

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1 VOTING RECORDS AND VALIDATED VOTING STUDIES CAROL A. CASSEL University of Alabama This research note examines whether people who overreport voting or voting records (or both) account for different results from self-reported and validated voter turnout research. Presser, Traugott, and Traugott (1990) raised the possibility that findings of overreporting bias in self-reported turnout studies may be artifacts of validation error. They showed that inferior voting records may deter validators from finding evidence of actual voting in central cities, the South, and African American communities. This is a critical concern for political scientists because some studies have found that overreporters bias the effects of the same or overlapping variables. Abramson and Claggett (1984, 1986, 1989, 1991) found that overreporters alter the effect of race on turnout. Bernstein, Chadha, and Montjoy (2001) found that overreporters alter the effect of race, residence in the Deep South, Hispanic ethnicity, the interaction of region and race, and minority concentration. Cassel (2002, 2003) found that overreporters alter the effect of race, southern residence, and Hispanic ethnicity. 1 Past research still leaves several questions unanswered. Do nonvoters who falsely claim to vote distort what we might otherwise predict about the effect of African American race, southern residence, Hispanic ethnicity, and related variables? Or do inferior voting records in some voting districts cause validators to undercount African American, southern, or Hispanic voters? What is the magnitude of validation error? Previous Research Presser, Traugott, and Traugott (1990) and Abramson and Claggett (1990, 1992) reach different conclusions about whether poor-quality voting records may bias validated turnout estimates. Presser and his colleagues examined I am indebted to Michael Traugott for helpful comments on an earlier version of this note. Address correspondence to the author; ccassel@tenhoor.as.ua.edu. 1. Cassel (2002) found that overreporters bias the effect of Hispanic ethnicity in midterm, but not presidential, elections. Public Opinion Quarterly, Vol. 68 No. 1 Pp , American Association for Public Opinion Research 2004; all rights reserved. DOI: / poq / nfh007

2 Voting Records and Vote Validation 103 record quality indicators available in the 1988 National Election Study (NES) election administration study and found that African Americans, southerners, and central city residents tend to live where record management is poorest. 2 (The study reported here looks at the same record quality variables, identified in the analysis section below.) Furthermore, they show that validators are least likely to confirm self-reports of voting in these communities. For example, validators confirmed 90 percent of self-reports of voting among African American registrants who lived where record quality and access is highest, but only 52 percent of self-reports among African American registrants who lived where record quality and access is lowest (calculated from Presser, Traugott, and Traugott 1990, table 6). Presser and his colleagues conclude that validated voting studies overestimate misreporting, and the well-known finding that African Americans overreport voting more than whites overreport voting might be at least in part an artifact of poor-quality voting records. However, they also advised that political scientists need further, multivariate tests to determine the relative effects of the quality of voting records and the respondents on validated turnout. To the contrary, Abramson and Claggett (1990, 1992) found little difference in voting records in African American and white communities from an examination of record quality variables in the 1986 and 1988 NES election administration studies. They concluded that voting records do not distort racial differences in validated turnout. However, the record quality variables Abramson and Claggett examine are not the same variables that Presser and his colleagues find important so the former s study does not directly counter the research claims of the latter. 3 Yet a third, indirect test of record quality supports Abramson and Claggett s conclusion. Using NES data, Bernstein, Chadha, and Montjoy (2001, n. 12) compared validated turnout models that include and exclude people classified as overreporters because validators could not find their voting records. 4 Results from the two models are approximately the same. Analysis This research extends Presser, Traugott, and Traugott s (1990) study with multivariate tests of 1988 NES data to determine whether poor-quality and 2. African Americans and southerners are twice as likely, and central city residents are three times as likely, as others to live where voting record quality and access are lowest (calculated from Presser, Traugott, and Traugott 1990, table 6). 3. Abramson and Claggett (1990) examine validators subjective assessments of record quality, whether voting offices have procedures to see if people live at the address where they are registered, whether master files contain the names of all people who are registered, whether master files are computerized, whether one needs to know the precinct to find a voting record, and whether one does not need to know the precinct or could locate a person s voting record from his or her registration record. 4. In the NES validation procedure, field staff will misclassify actual voters as overreporters if

3 104 Carol A. Cassel inaccessible voting records bias the effects of race, region, etc. on validated turnout (i.e., to determine the relative effects of the voting records and the characteristics of respondents on validated turnout). 5 NES interviewers questioned local government officials about the nature of registration and voting records in election administration studies in both 1986 and 1988, but only the larger 1988 study contains the necessary variables. The multivariate tests also make it possible to estimate the magnitude of validation error. To determine the effects of voting records on validated turnout research, this study compares results from validated turnout models that exclude and include Presser, Traugott, and Traugott s (1990) record quality indicators. The models contain the demographic variables whose effects may be biased by faulty voting records race, and southern and central city residence and interrelated socioeconomic control variables. These independent variables are standard explanations of turnout in voting participation research (Conway 1999; Rosenstone and Hansen 1993; Teixeira 1992; Verba and Nie 1972; Verba, Schlozman, and Brady 1995; Wolfinger and Rosenstone 1980). The record-keeping variables are the number of offices to register, office workload, and a record quality and access index. Whether there is more than one office to register is V1222 in the 1988 NES data set. Office workload is the number of voters per precinct, or V1215/V1217 (natural logarithm). The record quality and access index is a 3-point measure of complications in voting records, combining whether election officials merge the registration records with vote information (V1133, no = 1, yes = 0); whether all voting records are available (V1145, no = 1, yes = 0); whether the validator needs the exact address to locate an individual (V1176, yes = 1, no = 0); whether officials had updated all 1988 election records (V1179, no = 1, yes = 0); and whether the validator may handle records that are not computerized (V1174 and V1229, no = 1, yes = 0). 6 Validated vote is V1147 (1 = 11; 0 = 21, 22, 24, 31, 32; missing = 0, 12, 13, 23, 33). The correlations between validated turnout and the number of offices to register, voters per precinct, and record quality and access index are.07,.06, and.08, respectively. All p-values are <.01. The socioeconomic and demographic predictors of turnout examined here are education, age, and length of residence in the community in years; family income in ordinal categories; dummy variables measuring whether people are married, southern residents, female, homeowners, Hispanic, or central city they fail to find the voting records of validated registrants or the registration records of selfreported voters. 5. The data analyzed here are from the 1988 National Election Study. Neither the principal investigators (Warren E. Miller and the National Election Studies) nor the suppliers of the data (Sapiro, Rosenstone, Miller, and the National Election Studies 1998) bear any responsibility for the analysis or interpretation. 6. Approximately 56 percent of respondents live in areas with no complications in voting record keeping (the index of record quality and access = 0), about 35 percent live where there is one complication (the index = 1), and 8.4 and.1 percent live where there are two and three complications, respectively (the index = 2).

4 Voting Records and Vote Validation 105 residents; and two dummy variables African American and other measuring race. White is the omitted race category; other is Asian, Native American, and other. Age and length of residence are natural logarithms to correct for nonlinear relationships with turnout. Table 1 presents the logistic regression predictions of turnout from models that exclude and include the three record-keeping variables. In the right-hand equation the effects of the number of registration offices and office workload are not significant. The effect of the third record-keeping variable, the voting record quality and access index, is significant and moderately large: we expect a 9 percentage point difference in turnout when changing from the lowest to highest value of the index. Yet adding the voting record index and other record-keeping variables to table 1 s left-hand equation does not notably change the coefficients, significance levels, or effect sizes of the other variables. All differences in effects in the two sets of equations are less than those included in 95 percent confidence intervals. Why does controlling for the record-keeping variables particularly the voting record quality and access index make so little difference for the effects on validated turnout of race, southern and central city residence, and the other independent variables? Further analysis shows that the correlations between the voting record quality and access index and race, southern residence, and central city residence are.12,.11, and.23, respectively. All p-values are <.01. However, central city residence does not affect turnout (table 1), so the strongest relationship, between record keeping and central city residence, is not important. In fact, because turnout in central cities may be explained by the characteristics of individual residents, U.S. voting participation studies generally do not include a size of place variable (Conway 1999; Rosenstone and Hansen 1993; Teixeira 1992; Verba, Schlozman and Brady 1995; Wolfinger and Rosenstone 1980). The weak correlations between the voting records index and both race and region indicate that voting records explain about 1 percent of their variance and explain why these relationships are not important as well. African Americans and southerners may be twice as likely as others to live where validators have more difficulty matching selfreports of voting with actual voting records, yet only 16 percent of African Americans and 13 percent of southerners (and 8.5 percent of all Americans) live in these districts (Presser, Traugott, and Traugott 1990). 7 Finally, to estimate the magnitude of validation error, we present an analysis that assumes that no actual voters would be misclassified as overreporters if all voting records were of the highest quality. This assumption overlooks random error from misspelled names, inexperienced validators, registration in different counties, or other unmeasured factors. However, we assume the 7. Presser, Traugott, and Traugott (1990) show that match rates, or validators ability to confirm self-reports of voting, are similar in voting districts with zero or one complication in voting records; but match rates decline 9 percentage points in districts with two or more complications (the voting record quality and access index = 2).

5 Table 1. Estimated Effect of NES Misclassification of Voters as Overreporters on Predictions of Validated Turnout, 1988 (Logistic Regression) Independent Variable Coef SE % Prob a Coef SE % Prob SES and demographic Education.11** ** Income Age (log).51* * Married.34* *.19 5 South.95** ** Female African American.71** ** Other Race.83* ** Hispanic Homeowner.50** **.19 8 Years of residence (log) Central city Record keeping Registration offices Office workload Record quality and access.28*.13 9 Constant 2.16* * 1.29 N b 1,085 1,085 Pseudo-R 2c b a Change in expected turnout produced by change from lowest to highest value of a predictor. If dichotomy, change in expected turnout produced by change from zero to one. Weighted by the number of politically eligible adults in the household. c χ 2 /χ 2 + n. * p <.05 (one-tailed). ** p <.01, (one-tailed). 106

6 Voting Records and Vote Validation 107 underestimation of actual voters from these additional factors is small. For example, Traugott, Traugott, and Presser (1992) report that validators prior experience made no difference in finding voting records; and Traugott (1989) reports that validators check many possible misspellings, although some voters may be registered in different counties. Here, we estimate the actual voters misclassified as overreporters as the difference in validated turnout predictions from the right-hand equation in table 1 when setting all independent variables at their mean value, and after setting the record-keeping index to reflect the highest quality and accessibility. This method indicates the NES misclassified 2 percent of respondents as overreporters. This suggests that in 1988, 7.1 (not 9.1) percent of respondents were overreporters; and 63.1 (not 61.1) percent were actual voters. The low 2 percent estimate of the NES misclassification of voters as overreporters may be explained by the fact that more than 90 percent of Americans live in areas with little or no problem in voting record quality or accessibility. Conclusion The measurement of whether people did or did not vote is critical to political science. This research note helps to clarify our understanding of whether NES validated turnout predictions are an accurate standard for assessing selfreported turnout research. Validation error from poor-quality or inaccessible voting records located particularly in central city, African American, and southern communities does not bias the effects of related turnout predictors. The small 2 percentage point estimate of validation error from voting records helps explain why the NES validated voting data are an accurate standard for assessing electoral participation research. Validators confirm the fewest selfreports of voting where record quality is poorest, but only small minorities of potential voters including African Americans and southerners live in such communities. References Abramson, Paul R., and William Claggett Race-Related Differences in Self-Reported and Validated Turnout. Journal of Politics 46 (August): Race-Related Differences in Self-Reported and Validated Turnout in Journal of Politics 48 (May): Race-Related Differences in Self-Reported and Validated Turnout in Journal of Politics 51 (May): Racial Differences in Self-Reported and Validated Turnout in the 1988 Presidential Election. Journal of Politics 53 (February): The Quality of Record Keeping and Racial Differences in Validated Turnout. Journal of Politics 54 (August): Bernstein, Robert, Anita Chadha, and Robert Montjoy Overreporting Voting: Why It Happens and Why It Matters. Public Opinion Quarterly 65:22 44.

7 108 Carol A. Cassel Cassel, Carol A Hispanic Turnout: Estimates from Validated Voting Data. Political Research Quarterly 55 (June): Overreporting and Electoral Participation Research. American Politics Research 31 (January): Conway, M. Margaret Political Participation in the United States. 3d ed. Washington, DC: Congressional Quarterly Press. Presser, Stanley, Michael W. Traugott, and Santa Traugott Vote Over Reporting in Surveys: The Records or the Respondents? Technical Report no. 39. Ann Arbor, MI: National Election Studies. Rosenstone, Steven J., and John Mark Hansen Mobilization, Participation, and Democracy in America. New York: Macmillan. Teixeira, Ruy The Disappearing American Voter. Washington, DC: Brookings. Traugott, Michael W., Santa Traugott, and Stanley Presser Revalidation of Self-Reported Vote. Technical Report no. 42. Ann Arbor, MI: National Election Studies. Traugott, Santa Validating the Self-Reported Vote: Technical Report no. 34. Ann Arbor, MI: National Election Studies. Verba, Sidney, and Norman H. Nie Participation in America. New York: Harper and Row. Verba, Sidney, Kay Lehman Schlozman, and Henry Brady Voice and Equality: Civic Voluntarism in American Politics. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press. Wolfinger, Raymond E., and Steven J. Rosenstone Who Votes? New Haven, CT: Yale University Press.