Global Automotive Trends 2013 The Digital Car

Transcription

1 Global Automotive Trends 2013 The Digital Car Connectivity Hype and E-Car Recession New York, March 2013

2 Global Automotive Trends 2013 World Car Awards Automotive Expert Panel PRIME Research Automotive Media Panel 66 Top Automotive Journalists Top Opinion Leading Media TV, Print, Online Media All World Car of the Year Jurors and EU (G5), USA, BRIC, Japan Countries Members of the Steering Committee Full Benchmark [> 100 brands] Brands All automotive coverage Scope March March 2013 Period Methodology Research Institute Combining international expert views with global media trends PRIME Research in cooperation with the World Car Awards

3 Top Automotive Trends 2013 Overview Trend 1: Connectivity The Digital Car Infotainment Systems are essential to appeal to new and young customers. Advanced Driver Assistance Systems with focus on Safety are key. Scepticism towards autonomous driving. Trend 2: Efficiency Fuel efficiency technologies are top trending topics in Affordable light weight technologies are seen as an important addition. Trend 3: Plug-in Hybrids Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles are the most promising technology of today. Pure Battery Electric Vehicles are facing increasing scepticism: ongoing e-car recession. But: Four new e-cars highly anticipated in 2013: Tesla Model S Nissan Leaf BMW i3 Renault Zoe

4 Content The Digital Car Top Automotive Trends New Energy Cars Advanced Driver Assistance Systems Infotainment Systems Global Automotive Trends

5 Automotive Trends 2013 Connectivity, Efficiency and Plug-in Hybrids are the Top Trends in Connectivity Top Trends Efficiency Plug-in Hybrids Top 3 Design Light Weight E-Cars Budget Cars Marketing, Image Safety Cost Savings 0% 10% 20% 30% What will be the most important trends in the automotive industry in 2013? Global Automotive Trends

6 Automotive Trends Comparison 2012 to 2013 E-Cars are losing credit in Light Weight made it into the top 5 trends for the first time Efficiency Connectivity E-Cars Plug-in Hybrids Cost Savings Connectivity Efficiency Plug-in Hybrids Design Light Weight Top 2 Top 5 Design Budget Cars Safety Marketing, Image Light Weight E-Cars Budget Cars Marketing, Image Safety Cost Savings Decreasing importance 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% What will be the most important trends in the automotive industry in 2012 / 2013? Global Automotive Trends

8 Ongoing E-Car Recession Battery electric vehicles are facing increasing scepticism: they arrived in reality. Media Panel Share of coverage Expert Panel Key quotes 12% Emerging Trend Hype Slowdown + The continual, gradual electrification of the motor car. Will electrification be identified as a failure? - 9% The death of electric engines. - 6% + Renault Zoe - If it wins the resistance against EV in the European market, the doors for this kind of car will be open worldwide. 4,8% 5,1% 4,6% 4,3% Backpedaling on electrics without losing face and while getting most out of the huge investments made. - 2,0% 2,9% 3% Their market-share is irrelevant and none offer technological breakthroughs % Just delivering high-volume, small-car performance and comfort at premium midsegment prices won't work for any of them % = Total automotive media coverage in respective year Global Automotive Trends

9 Most promising technology: plug-in hybrids Plug-in hybrids are the most promising technology of today. Full electric vehicles are facing increasing scepticism. very poor mixed very good Plug-in hybrids 1,88 2,16 + Plug-in hybrids will be the most popular theme in Plug-in hybrids are currently on a winning path. Electric vehicles with range extender 1,54 2,42 Fuel cell vehicles -0,02 0,67 Battery electric vehicles 2013 Expert Panel -0,42 0, Expert Panel From your point of view, what are the most promising powertrain options regarding e-mobility? Global Automotive Trends

10 Top New Energy Cars Tesla Model S, BMW i3, Nissan Leaf and Renault Zoe are highly regarded e-cars in Tesla Model S BMW i3 Nissan Leaf Renault Zoe Chevrolet Volt smart ed VW e-golf VW XL1 Top 4 EV models in 2013 Range, performance Groundbreaking new concept Price leadership Seen as a possible breakthrough-model MB SLS electric drive Volvo V60 PHEV Mahindra Reva E20 Renault Twizy Mitsubishi i-miev 2013 Expert Panel 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% From your point if view, what are the most important EV models this year? Global Automotive Trends

11 Japan is the key driving market for e-mobility Japan is seen as the key driving market behind e-mobility, followed by Germany and the USA. China follows in a distant fifth. very poor mixed very good Japan 2,11 Germany 1,34 USA 1,24 France 1,09 China 0,91 UK 0,69 Italy -0,45 Spain -0, Expert Panel Which markets will be key drivers for e-mobility? Global Automotive Trends

13 Connectivity Trends 2013 Internet-based infotainment systems will be the most important connectivity topic in 2013 in addition to advanced driver assistance systems Internet-based Infotainment Systems Driver Assistance Navigation Communication 0% 20% 40% 60% What will be the most important connectivity trends in the automotive industry in 2013? Global Automotive Trends

14 Connectivity is a key factor in evaluating a car For 71% of automotive journalists, connectivity already is or is quickly becoming a key factor in evaluating a car. Yes, as it becomes a priority for young buyers. Increasingly [42%] It is becoming a key factor, because younger people do not care on powertrains, maximum speed and emotional driving anymore. Already [29%] No. Ease of use is, but connectivity is not critical. It's also very difficult to communicate, given that average readers just want to know if they can plug the phone in or not. No [12%] Not yet [17%] Not yet but is going to grow once they sort out the basics. Is connectivity a key factor in evaluating a car? Global Automotive Trends

16 Advanced Driver Assistance Brake assistance, pre-crash systems and intelligent lights are the top safety trends Autonomous Driving is evaluated most sceptically. not important at all mixed very important Brake Assist Systems Pre-Crash Systems Intelligent Lights Pedestrian Detection Blind Spot Detection Adaptive Cruise Control Automated Crash Reporting Traffic Sign Recognition Attention Assist Nightvision Systems Lane Keeping Systems Top Safety Features 0,92 1,06 1,04 1,35 1,31 1,98 1,84 1,73 1,59 1,57 1,55 Park Assist Autonomous Driving -0,16 0, Expert Panel How important and desirable are the following Advanced Driver Assistance features from your point of view? Global Automotive Trends

17 Autonomous Driving 89% of the journalists believe in the self-driving car in the future, yet 19% dread that day and 11% are completely sceptical. Yes - manufacturer's are moving more and more in that direction Yes, under certain conditions [23%] In certain environments that can be supported by infrastructure, yes. Definitely [47%] No. Not completely because of unique challenges of certain driving situations that only humans can handle. No [11%] Yes, but I dread that day! [19%] Yes, but fortunately well after I am retired. Do you believe that vehicles will drive by themselves some day? Global Automotive Trends

19 Infotainment Features Audio streaming from personal devices like smartphones or ipods/mp3 players is clearly preferred over radio options like Webradio or Sattelite Radio. not important at all mixed very important USB-Audio Interface Web-Based Traffic Information Bluetooth Audio Streaming Web Access (3G/4G connectivity) 2,27 2,22 2,08 2,00 Web-Based Infotainment Webradio Satellite Radio Access to Search Engines 1,24 1,20 1,06 1,00 Apps Operator Services (e.g. reservations, bookings) ,55 0, Expert Panel How important and desirable are the following in-car infotainment features from your point of view? Global Automotive Trends

20 Infotainment while driving Call for restrictions? Half of the expert panel thinks there should be no restrictions regarding the functionalities while driving, while the other half welcomes restrictions for at least difficult or complex features. Absolutely yes. A qualified yes. The vehicle knows (for the airbags) if the passenger seat is occupied--why can't the passenger be allowed to enter data while in motion? Yes, disable functionalities while driving [35%] Some [15%] Some. The complicated ones. Some of them, yes (e.g. access to internet, facebook). Yes, some of them should be disabled and specially ones that need you to take your eyes off the road to look at things that one can't decipher with feel specially touch screen systems. For these systems the control by voice functionality needs to be well developed which it is not yet. No, I should think myself what I want to do. No! [50%] Should functionalities be disabled when the vehicle is moving? Global Automotive Trends

21 Social Media access while driving Most experts do not wish to be socially connected while driving themselves but they see it as a feature of crucial importance for the younger generation. Not myself, but the younger generation will do! [ ] while in a jam, I could use it. And I understand very well other people, who would. Yes, important for some people but should not be distracting [31%] Only when the vehicle is stopped. No! [69%] Not at all. This is a point of great concern. Definitely NOT. Do you wish to have access to social media while driving? Global Automotive Trends

22 Communication Features Somewhat critical attitude towards functionalities beyond smartphone integration and phone functionality, with mixed acceptance of s and chat functionalities. not important at all mixed very important Smart-Phone Connectivity (Integration of mobile devices) 2,55 Phone Functionality 2,45 Functionality 0,94 Communication Apps (e.g. Whats App, Facebook Messenger) 0, Expert Panel How important and desirable are the following communication features from your point of view? Global Automotive Trends

23 Navigation / Telematics Features Wide-spread and very positive reception towards technologies that improve or enhance navigation and telematics systems. not important at all mixed very important Navigation (with online traffic informations) 2,59 Sat Nav-Safety interaction (predictive route data) 2,00 Position-related Information Systems 1,75 Navigation use for Range and Efficiency Optimisation 1, Expert Panel How important and desirable are the following navigation / telematics features from your point of view? Global Automotive Trends

24 Human / Machine Interface While reserved attitudes towards Gesture Recognition may have been predicted, it is probably surprising that some automotive journalists still have doubts surrounding Voice Control. not important at all mixed very important Displays / Instruments 2,37 Head-Up Display 1,80 Touchpad / Touchwheel 1,51 Voice Control 0,96 Gesture Recognition 0, Expert Panel How important and desirable are the following human / machine interface features from your point of view? Global Automotive Trends

25 Voice or hand input Strong concerns regarding voice input from the leading automotive journalists, with only 11% currently preferring input by voice. A further 9% stated that they would prefer voice input if it worked correctly. Hand input. Stick to haptic joysticks and carefully thought-out button hierarchies. By Hand, because by voice is not reliable enough [34%] Hand. I have not found a voice system that works properly. By Hand [46%] Voice input, when efficiently executed. By Voice [11%] By Voice, if it worked [9%] Voice. Always better in theory but no automaker has perfected it yet. Do you prefer voice input or input by hand? Global Automotive Trends

26 Touch-screen display vs. push-and-turn button Despite a near draw, push and turn buttons are generally preferred, either due to safety reasons or due to the lack of refinement provided by most touch-screen displays. Push-and-turn is better in a moving car. Touch-screen works best on a display at a consumer clinic or at an auto show display, not in a moving vehicle. Push & Turn button [45%] A combination of both [15%] Best is a mixture of both. Touch-screens are dangerous because the only way to confirm interaction is by sight. Touch-screens are temperamental and take too much attention away from the road. The touch-screen is great when it works but annoying when you have to press a number of times before it activates. Touch screen is faster and easier to use Touch-screen display [40%] Touch-screens are great if done right (Tesla), horrible if done wrong (early Ford). Touch-screens are too distant, and getting smudged with fingerprints. Do you prefer a touch-screen display or a push-and-turn button? Global Automotive Trends

27 Contact PRIME Mainz (Germany) PRIME Ann Arbor (USA) PRIME New York (USA) PRIME Oxford (UK) PRIME Zurich (Switzerland) PRIME Shanghai (China) PRIME Delhi-Gurgaon (India) PRIME São Paulo (Brazil) PRIME Montevideo (Uruguay) Dr. Rainer Mathes PRIME Research President Bernd Hitzemann PRIME Research Project Manager Jens Meiners World Car Awards Director Steering Committee World Car Awards