FloridaElection IssuesSurvey

Transcription

1 FloridaElection IssuesSurvey October2007

2 Florida Election Issues Survey ort prepared by Gretchen Straw Data collected by Woelfel Research, Inc. Copyright by AARP, 2007 AARP Knowledge Management 601 E Street, NW Washington, DC rinting with Permission

3 AARP is a nonprofit, nonpartisan membership organization that helps people 50+ have independence, choice and control in ways that are beneficial and affordable to them and society as a whole. AARP neither endorses candidates for public office nor makes political contributions. We produce AARP The Magazine, published bimonthly; AARP Bulletin, our monthly newspaper; AARP Segunda Juventud, our bimonthly magazine in Spanish and English; NRTA Live & Learn, our quarterly newsletter for 50+ educators; and our website, AARP Foundation is our affiliated charity that provides security, protection, and empowerment to older persons in need with support from thousands of volunteers, donors, and sponsors. We have staffed offices in all 50 states, the District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, and the U.S. Virgin Islands. For more information, contact Gretchen Straw at (202)

4 Florida Election Issues Survey AARP commissioned this election issues survey of 893 Florida AARP members who consider themselves to be independent and who say they will absolutely, very likely, or possibly vote in one of the 2008 presidential primaries 1. Of these voters, 60 intend to vote in the ocratic primary and 40 intend to vote in the ublican primary. They are referred to throughout the report as ocratic or ublican primary voters although all consider themselves independent. The margin of error for 532 potential voters in the ocratic primary is percent, and the margin of error for the 361 potential voters in the ublican primary is percent. The telephone survey was conducted between October 2 and October 14, 2007 by Woelfel Research, Inc. Attentiveness to the Campaigns Key Findings At this point in the election cycle, over three in four of these independent potential primary voters are following the candidate coverage at least somewhat closely (78 all voters; 80 ocratic primary voters; 75 ublican primary voters). Those planning to vote in the ocratic primary are more likely to say they are following coverage very closely (36 vs. 29) than those planning to vote in the ublican primary. Solidity of Candidate Preference Although AARP members are clearly engaged, they are far from settled in their candidate preferences. Among these potential voters in the ocratic primary, almost eight in ten say they are very (36) or somewhat (42) likely to change their candidate preference as they learn more about the issues between now and the election. The figure is similar among potential voters in the ublican primary, where 41 are very likely to change their preference and 41 are somewhat likely to change it. Likelihood of Changing Candidate Preference As Respondents Learn More About the Issues All ocratic ublican Very Likely Somewhat Likely 1 Surveys were conducted with a random sample of members drawn from AARP s member database who were then screened on voter registration, party affiliation and intention to vote in the presidential primary for To qualify, a member needed to be a currently registered voter who self-identified as an independent and was possibly, very likely, or absolutely certain to vote in Florida s 2008 presidential primary. Florida Election Issues Survey, October,

5 Mood of the Country Overall, just 17 of these voters who view themselves as independent say the country is headed in the right direction, while 74 say it is off on the wrong track. Although majorities of voters in both primaries say the country is on the wrong track, their assessment differs somewhat depending upon the presidential primary in which they plan to vote. Over eight in ten potential voters in the ocratic primary (83) believe the country is on the wrong track, compared to six in ten potential voters in the ublican primary (59). Issue Landscape When asked in an open-ended question to identify the most important issue facing the country, Florida AARP members of both parties say that Iraq is the most important issue. Among likely voters in the ocratic primary, health care is the second most often cited problem, followed by war (not specific to Iraq), and the economy/jobs. Among likely voters in the ublican primary, health care is the second most frequently named issue, followed by immigration, the economy/jobs, and war (not specific to Iraq). Most Important Issue Facing the Country Total Potential ocratic primary voters Potential ublican primary voters Iraq Health care War (not specific) Economy/jobs Immigration Financial Security Although financial security does not emerge as the top issue facing the country, it is a critical voting issue. Over nine in ten AARP potential primary voters say that issues related to financial security such as Social Security, incentives for savings and investment, and pension protection will be important to their votes. This issue is very important to 75 of potential voters in the ocratic primary and to 70 of potential voters in the ublican primary. Importance of Financial Security Issues to Voting Decision Total ocratic ublican Very Important Somewhat Important Florida Election Issues Survey, October,

6 How Well Candidates Address Financial Security Potential voters were asked to rate how well each candidate in the primary in which they planned to vote had addressed the issue of ensuring that all Americans can build financial security for their entire lifetimes. Large proportions don t know enough about the candidates stances on financial security to be able to rate them. As a consequence, no candidate in either party is rated as addressing financial security well by a majority of potential voters. Half or more of potential primary voters didn t know enough about seven of the nine ublican candidates positions on financial security to rate them. And more than half could not rate five of the eight ocratic candidates. Although financial security issues are very important to them, voters simply don t know whether candidates are addressing the issues well or not. Rating of Candidates on How Well They Have Addressed the Issue of Ensuring that all Americans Can Build Financial Security for Their Entire Lifetimes Very or Somewhat well Don t Know enough about candidate on this issue 2 ublican Candidates 3 Sen. Sam Brownback 9 76 Former Mayor Rudolph Giuliani Former Gov. Mike Huckabee Duncan Hunter 8 79 Sen. John McCain Ron Paul 9 76 Former Gov. Mitt Romney Tom Tancredo 8 78 Former Sen. Fred Thompson ocratic Candidates 4 Sen. Joseph R. Biden Jr Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton Sen. Christopher J. Dodd Former Sen. John Edwards Former Sen. Mike Gravel Dennis J. Kucinich Sen. Barack Obama Gov. Bill Richardson Percent in this and subsequent questions refers to those who answered do not know enough to judge. In addition, a small percent fell into a general don t know or refused category. 3 Asked only of those planning to vote in the ublican presidential primary. 4 Asked only of those planning to vote in the ocratic presidential primary. Florida Election Issues Survey, October,

7 Who Best Addresses Financial Security When potential voters in the ublican primary were asked which one candidate best addressed financial security issues, 68 said they did not know enough about their positions to make a judgment. Those candidates named by five percent or more were Giuliani (9) and Romney (7). Two-thirds of potential voters in the ocratic primary (66) also felt that they did not know enough about candidates positions to make a judgment. Clinton (16) and Edwards (5) were the only candidates named by five percent or more of respondents. Who Can Break Through Gridlock to Make Progress on Financial Security Slightly over half of potential voters in the ublican primary (52) do not know enough to choose which candidate is best able to break through special interest and partisan gridlock to make real progress on ensuring that all Americans can build financial security for their entire lifetime. Three candidates were named by at least five percent as able to deal with special interests and partisan gridlock to make progress in the area: Giuliani (14), Romney (11), and McCain (5). On the ocratic side, almost half (48) say they do not know enough about the candidate positions on the issue to make a choice either. Three candidates were named by over five percent of potential primary voters as best able to break through special interest and partisan gridlock to make real progress on financial security: Clinton (25), Obama (7), and Edwards (7). Health Care Large majorities of likely primary voters say that health care will be important to their 2008 voting decision. The issue is especially salient among those planning to vote in the ocratic primary where almost all say it is at least somewhat important and 71 rate it as very important. ublicans also say that health care will be important to their voting decisions, with about half (52) reporting the issue will be very important. Importance of Health Care Issues to Voting Decision Total ocratic ublican Very Important Somewhat Important Florida Election Issues Survey, October,

8 How Well Candidates Address Health Care Potential voters were asked to rate each candidate in their party s primary on how well he or she has addressed the issue of ensuring that all Americans have access to affordable, quality health care. As was the case in ratings of the candidates positions on financial security, many potential primary voters of both parties report that they are unable to rate the candidates positions on health care because they don t know enough about them. More than half were unable to rate six of the nine ublican candidates on this issue. And more than half were unable to rate five of the eight ocratic candidates. Only two candidates (Clinton and Edwards) were rated as addressing the issue well by majorities of potential voters. Although the issue of health care is important to voting decisions, potential primary voters frequently do not know much about candidates positions on the issue. Rating of Candidates on How Well They Have Addressed the Issue of Ensuring that all Americans Have Access to Affordable, Quality Health Care Very or Somewhat well Don t Know enough about candidate on this issue ublican Candidates 5 Sen. Sam Brownback 9 72 Former Mayor Rudolph Giuliani Former Gov. Mike Huckabee Duncan Hunter 7 79 Sen. John McCain Ron Paul Former Gov. Mitt Romney Tom Tancredo 6 77 Former Sen. Fred Thompson ocratic Candidates 6 Sen. Joseph R. Biden Jr Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton Sen. Christopher J. Dodd Former Sen. John Edwards Former Sen. Mike Gravel Dennis J. Kucinich Sen. Barack Obama Gov. Bill Richardson Asked only of those planning to vote in the ublican presidential primary. 6 Asked only of those planning to vote in the ocratic presidential primary.. Florida Election Issues Survey, October,

9 Who Best Addresses Health Care Potential voters were asked which candidate has best addressed healthcare. Seven in ten potential voters in the ublican primary (70) do not know enough about candidate positions to say who best addresses health care. Romney (11) and Giuliani (5) are the only ublican candidates named by five percent or more as best addressing health care. Almost half (47) of potential voters in the ocratic primary also do not know enough about candidate positions to name someone as best addressing the issue. Two candidates were named by five percent or more: Clinton (40) and Edwards (5). Who Can Break Through Gridlock to Make Progress on Health Care Over half of potential voters in the ublican primary (51) don t know enough about candidate positions on health care to assess who could best break through special interest and partisan gridlock to make real progress in ensuring all Americans have access to affordable, quality healthcare. Four ublicans are named by five percent or more: Romney (14), Giuliani (12), McCain (6), and Fred Thompson (5). Among potential ocratic voters, almost four in ten (37) do not know enough to choose a candidate as best able to break through special interests to make progress in this area. The three ocrats named by five percent or more are Clinton (38), Obama (8), and Edwards (6). Key Information Sources Most potential voters have turned to television news, newspapers, television talk shows, and televised debates for information about the candidates and their positions on issues. Newspapers, televised candidate debates, and candidate forums have been information sources for more potential ocratic voters, while talk radio has been an information source for more potential ublican voters. Information Source Potential ocratic primary voters Potential ublican primary voters TV news Newspapers TV talk shows Televised candidate debates Friends and family News radio Talk radio Candidate forums Campaign mailings Internet sites (not campaign websites) Campaign websites Other 12 9 Florida Election Issues Survey, October,

10 Conclusions AARP members who consider themselves independent and who are likely to vote in the Florida presidential primaries are following candidate coverage. However, they have not settled on presidential preferences. Most say they may change their preference as they learn more about the candidates positions on the issues. Two domestic issues financial security and health care were explored in depth. Both of these issues are important to independent AARP members as they decide on their votes. However, in spite of following campaign coverage, large proportions of the potential voters in the Florida primaries do not know enough about candidate positions on financial security to be able to assess them or choose which candidate would best address the issues. Similarly, ublican voters continue to report that they do not know enough about the candidates health care positions to assess the candidates or choose a candidate who would best address the issue. Those planning to vote in the ocratic primary are beginning to form opinions on candidates health care positions; a majority can now identify a candidate who they believe will best address the health care issue or best break through gridlock to achieve progress on health care. Florida Election Issues Survey, October,

11 AARP Issues Poll: Florida Samples: 893 AARP members who consider themselves independent and are likely primary voters 532 likely democratic primary voters (+/-4.3) 361 likely republican primary voters (+/-5.2) * denotes statistical significance at the 90 confidence level 1. Are you currently registered to vote in Florida? Yes No (TERMINATE) Don t Know (TERMINATE 2. Generally speaking, do you usually think of yourself as? (READ LIST. ENTER ONE ONLY) - 1. (TERMINATE) A ublican - 2. (TERMINATE) A ocrat An Independent - 4. (DO NOT READ) Other - 5. (DO NOT READ) Don t know - 6. (DO NOT READ) Refused 3. Even though the Florida presidential primary is next year, how closely have you been following the coverage of your party s presidential candidates? 36* Very closely Somewhat closely 15 21* 3. Not too closely Not at all closely DK/Refused [VOLUNTEERED Florida Election Issues Survey, October,

12 4. In 2008, Florida will hold a presidential primary election so that each party can select its own candidate for President. How likely are you to vote in this primary election? Absolutely certain Very likely Possibly Not very likely TERMINATE Not at all likely TERMINATE Don't know TERMINATE 5. In the Florida presidential primary for 2008, do you plan to vote as a ocrat, or as a ublican? ocrat CODE AS DEM PRIMARY VOTER ublican CODE AS REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTER Don't know / no plan to vote (DO NOT READ) [TERMINATE] Florida Election Issues Survey, October,

13 ASK ALL 6. What do you believe is the most important issue facing the country? OPEN END WITH PRE CODES <1 <1 1. abortion balance the budget <1-3. budget cuts campaign finance reform < crime <1-6. corruption <1-7. discrimination/bigotry/racism drugs economy/jobs < education 1 <1 11. the environment - <1 12. guns/gun violence need for gun control <1 <1 13. guns too much regulation 19* healthcare <1 <1 15. homelessness housing 2 8* 17. immigration 36* Iraq morality/family values Medicare pension reform < politics as usual prescription drugs protecting Social Security taxes teen violence 2 5* 27. terrorism <1-28. Retirement 10* 5 War (not specific to war in Iraq) <1 4* National security/homeland security Other SPECIFY ) Don t know DO NOT READ Florida Election Issues Survey, October,

14 7. Overall, do you think things in the country are generally headed in the right direction or are they off on the wrong track? 9 28* 1. Right direction 83* Wrong track 8 13* 9. Don t know [VOLUNTEERED] 8a. In making your decision about who to vote for in 2008, will the issue of health care be very important, somewhat important, not too important or not at all important? 71* Very important 26 34* 2. Somewhat important 2 9* 3. Not too important 1 5* 4. Not at all important 1 <1 9. Don t know [VOLUNTEERED] 8b. Based on what you know about the democratic/republican presidential candidates, how would you rate (INSERT CANDIDATE NAME FROM APPROPRIATE PARTY LIST) in terms of how well (he/she) has addressed the issue of ensuring that all Americans have access to affordable, quality healthcare? (PRESENT RANDOMLY) Ask for ublican likely voters Sen. Sam Brownback Former Mayor Rudolph Giuliani Former Gov. Mike Huckabee. Duncan Hunter Sen. John McCain. Ron Paul Former Gov. Mitt Romney. Tom Tancredo Former Sen. Fred Thompson Ask for ocratic likely voters Sen. Christopher J. Dodd Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton Former Sen. John Edwards Gov. Bill Richardson Sen. Joseph R. Biden Jr. Dennis J. Kucinich Former Sen. Mike Gravel Sen. Barack Obama Florida Election Issues Survey, October,

15 Would you say (INSERT CANDIDATE NAME FROM APPROPRIATE PARTY LIST) has addressed this issue very well, somewhat well, not too well, not at all well, or do you not know enough about (CANDIDATE NAME) on this issue? ublicans Brownback Giuliani Huckabee Hunter McCain Very well Somewhat well Not too well Not at all well Don t know enough about candidate on this issue DK/Refused [VOLUNTEERED ublicans Paul Romney Tancredo Fred Thompson Very well Somewhat well Not too well Not at all well Don t know enough about candidate on this issue DK/Refused [VOLUNTEERED ocrats Dodd Clinton Edwards Richardson Very well Somewhat well Not too well Not at all well Don t know enough about candidate on this issue DK/Refused [VOLUNTEERED ocrats Biden Kucinich Gravel Obama Very well Somewhat well Not too well Not at all well Don t know enough about candidate on this issue DK/Refused [VOLUNTEERED Florida Election Issues Survey, October,

16 8c. Which candidate do you feel has best addressed health care, or do you not know enough about their positions on health care to make a judgment? (DO NOT READ LIST; CODE CANDIDATE NAMES or Code Do not know enough to judge - Sen. Sam Brownback - Sen. Christopher J. Dodd 5 Former Mayor Rudolph Giuliani 39 Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton 1 Former Gov. Mike Huckabee 5 Former Sen. John Edwards -. Duncan Hunter <1 Gov. Bill Richardson 2 Sen. John McCain <1 Sen. Joseph R. Biden Jr 1. Ron Paul 3. Dennis J. Kucinich 11 Former Gov. Mitt Romney - Former Sen. Mike Gravel -. Tom Tancredo 3 Sen. Barack Obama 3 Former Sen. Fred Thompson 2 Other 3 Other 2 Don t know 3 Don t know 47 Don t know enough to judge 70 Don t know enough to judge 9. Based on what you know about the democratic/republican presidential candidates, which candidate do you feel has the best ability to break through special interest and partisan gridlock to make real progress in ensuring all Americans have access to affordable, quality healthcare, or do you not know enough about the candidates to make a choice? <1 Sen. Sam Brownback <1 Sen. Christopher J. Dodd 12 Former Mayor Rudolph Giuliani 38 Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton 2 Former Gov. Mike Huckabee 6 Former Sen. John Edwards -. Duncan Hunter 2 Gov. Bill Richardson 6 Sen. John McCain 1 Sen. Joseph R. Biden Jr 2. Ron Paul 1. Dennis J. Kucinich 14 Former Gov. Mitt Romney <1 Former Sen. Mike Gravel -. Tom Tancredo 8 Sen. Barack Obama 5 Former Sen. Fred Thompson 3 Other 3 Other 3 Don t know 5 Don t know 37 Don t know enough to judge 51 Don t know enough to judge Florida Election Issues Survey, October,

17 10a. In making your decision about who to vote for in 2008, will issues related to financial security such as Social Security, incentives for savings and investment, and pension protection be very important, somewhat important, not too important or not at all important? Very important Somewhat important Not too important < Not at all important Don t know [VOLUNTEERED] 10b. Based on what you know about the democratic/republican presidential candidates, how would you rate (INSERT CANDIDATE NAME FROM APPROPRIATE PARTY LIST) in terms of how well (he/she) has addressed the issue of ensuring that all Americans can build financial security for their entire lifetimes? (PRESENT RANDOMLY) Ask for ublican likely voters Sen. Sam Brownback Former Mayor Rudolph Giuliani Former Gov. Mike Huckabee. Duncan Hunter Sen. John McCain. Ron Paul Former Gov. Mitt Romney. Tom Tancredo Former Sen. Fred Thompson Ask for ocratic likely voters Sen. Christopher J. Dodd Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton Former Sen. John Edwards Gov. Bill Richardson Sen. Joseph R. Biden Jr. Dennis J. Kucinich Former Sen. Mike Gravel Sen. Barack Obama Florida Election Issues Survey, October,

18 Would you say (INSERT CANDIDATE NAME FROM APPROPRIATE PARTY LIST) has addressed this issue very well, somewhat well, not too well, not at all well, or do you not know enough about (CANDIDATE NAME) on this issue? ublicans Brownback Giuliani Huckabee Hunter McCain Very well Somewhat well Not too well Not at all well Don t know enough about candidate on this issue DK/Refused [VOLUNTEERED ublicans Paul Romney Tancredo Fred Thompson 3 11 <1 5 Very well Somewhat well Not too well Not at all well Don t know enough about candidate on this issue DK/Refused [VOLUNTEERED ocrats Dodd Clinton Edwards Richardson Very well Somewhat well Not too well Not at all well Don t know enough about candidate on this issue DK/Refused [VOLUNTEERED ocrats Biden Kucinich Gravel Obama Very well Somewhat well Not too well Not at all well Don t know enough about candidate on this issue DK/Refused [VOLUNTEERED Florida Election Issues Survey, October,

19 10c. Which candidate do you feel has best addressed financial security issues, or do you not know enough about their positions on financial security issues to make a judgment? (DO NOT READ LIST; CODE CANDIDATE NAMES, or Code Do not know enough to judge. - Sen. Sam Brownback <1 Sen. Christopher J. Dodd 9 Former Mayor Rudolph Giuliani 16 Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton 1 Former Gov. Mike Huckabee 5 Former Sen. John Edwards <1. Duncan Hunter 1 Gov. Bill Richardson 4 Sen. John McCain 2 Sen. Joseph R. Biden Jr 2. Ron Paul 1. Dennis J. Kucinich 7 Former Gov. Mitt Romney - Former Sen. Mike Gravel -. Tom Tancredo 4 Sen. Barack Obama 3 Former Sen. Fred Thompson 2 Other 1 Other 4 Don t Know 5 Don t Know 66 Do not know enough 68 Do not know enough 11. Based on what you know about the democratic/republican presidential candidates, which candidate do you feel has the best ability to break through special interest and partisan gridlock to make real progress in ensuring that all Americans can build financial security for their entire lifetimes, or do you not know enough about the candidates to make a choice? - Sen. Sam Brownback <1 Sen. Christopher J. Dodd 14 Former Mayor Rudolph Giuliani 25 Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton 2 Former Gov. Mike Huckabee 7 Former Sen. John Edwards <1. Duncan Hunter 2 Gov. Bill Richardson 5 Sen. John McCain 2 Sen. Joseph R. Biden Jr 2. Ron Paul 1. Dennis J. Kucinich 11 Former Gov. Mitt Romney <1 Former Sen. Mike Gravel -. Tom Tancredo 7 Sen. Barack Obama 4 Former Sen. Fred Thompson 3 Other 4 Other 4 Don t know 5 Don t know 48 Don t know enough to judge 52 Don t know enough to judge Florida Election Issues Survey, October,

20 12. How likely are you to change your candidate preference as you learn more about the issues between now and the election? Very likely Somewhat likely Not very likely Not at all likely Don t know (volunteered) 13. Please tell me if you have gotten any information about the candidates and their position on issues from: (Code yes/no for each) ocrats 67* * * ublicans 58 Newspapers 81 TV news 54 TV talk shows 49 Televised candidate debates 38 News radio 35* Talk radio 15 Candidate forums 19 Campaign mailings 36 Friends and family 11 Campaign websites 11 Other internet sites 9 Other (specify) Florida Election Issues Survey, October,

21 (SCRAMBLE CODES 1-3) 14. Generally speaking, would you characterize your political views as being...? (READ LIST. ENTER ONE ONLY) 21 51* 1. Conservative 53* Moderate 21* 4 3. Liberal (DO NOT READ) None of the Above (DO NOT READ) Don t know (DO NOT READ) Refused ographics D1. What is your age as of your last birthday? [RECORD IN YEARS] 1 <1 1. Under * Refused [DO NOT READ] D2. What is your marital status? Are you currently Married, Divorced, 1 <1 3. Separated, Widowed, 3* 1 5. Or have you never been married? <1 <1 6. Living with partner [DO NOT READ] - <1 7. Don't know [DO NOT READ] <1-8. Refused [DO NOT READ] Florida Election Issues Survey, October,

22 D3. What is the highest level of education you have completed? [READ LIST] Less than high school High school graduate or equivalent Some college or technical training beyond high school College graduate Or, Post-graduate or professional degree Don't know [DO NOT READ] <1-7. Refused [DO NOT READ] D4. Which of the following best describes your current employment status? Are you currently.[read LIST] Employed full-time Employed part-time Retired and not working Unemployed and looking for work Homemaker Disabled <1-7. Student Or something else [Specify: ] Don t Know [DO NOT READ] <1-10. Refused [DO NOT READ] D5. For statistical purposes only, please stop me when I get to the category That includes your household s income before taxes in Was it [READ LIST] Less than $10, $10,000 but less than $20, $20,000 but less than $30, $30,000 but less than $40, $40,000 but less than $50, $50,000 but less than $75, $75,000 but less than $100, $100,000 or more Don't know [DO NOT READ] Refused [DO NOT READ] Florida Election Issues Survey, October,

23 D6. Are you Spanish, Latino, or Hispanic? Yes No 1 <1 3. Don t Know 1 <1 4. Refused D7. Which of the following groups best describes your race? [READ LIST] White 3* 1 2. Black or African-American <1 <1 3. Asian Native Hawaiian or Pacific Islander - <1 5. American Indian or Alaska Native Other <1-7. Don t know Refused D8. What is your gender? Male Female D9. Finally, what is your 5-digit zip code? Florida Election Issues Survey, October,