Methodology of the Study of Human Capital in Poland (1st round)

Transcription

1 Study of Human Capital in Poland 2011 Methodology of the Study of Human Capital in Poland (1st round) HUMAN CAPITAL NATIONAL COHESION STRATEGY EUROPEAN UNION EUROPEAN SOCIAL FUND

2 HUMAN CAPITAL NATIONAL COHESION STRATEGY EUROPEAN UNION EUROPEAN SOCIAL FUND The Study of Human Capital in Poland project is conducted by its research team composed of: Department of Human Capital Development, Polish Agency for Enterprise Development: Anna Świebocka-Nerkowska project manager Maja Dobrzyńska Beata Michorowska Centre for Evaluation and Analysis of Public Policies at the Jagiellonian University in Kraków: Professor Jarosław Górniak project manager dr Szymon Czarnik dr Magdalena Jelonek Karolina Keler dr Marcin Kocór Katarzyna Stec Anna Strzebońska Anna Szczucka Dariusz Szklarczyk Konrad Turek dr Barbara Worek Publication co-financed by the European Union from European Social Fund. This publication is free of charge. The views and opinions presented in this publication do not reflect the position of the Polish Agency for Enterprise Development but only the views of the authors. Copyright by Polska Agencja Rozwoju Przedsiębiorczości Copyright by Uniwersytet Jagielloński Publisher: Polska Agencja Rozwoju Przedsiębiorczości / Polish Agency for Enterprise Development ul. Pańska Warszawa, Poland phone: fax: biuro@parp.gov.pl translation: HOBBiT Piotr Krasnowolski ISBN Electronic publication available from: 1st edition Warsaw 2011

3 Table of contents Table of contents List of acronyms 4 Introduction 5 Chapter 1. Study of employers (A1) Basic information Population Sampling frame Sampling design and sample size Effective sample size and response rate Weights 10 Chapter 2. Study of job offers (A2) Basic information Population and data sources Progress of the study 13 Chapter 3. Study of the population (B1) Basic information Population Sampling frame Sampling design and sample size Effective sample size and response rate Weights 18 Chapter 4. Study of the registered unemployed (B2) Basic information Population Sampling frame Sampling design and sample size Effective sample size and response rate Weights 23 Chapter 5. Study of students of upper secondary schools (B3.1) Basic information Population Sampling frame Sampling design and sample size Effective sample size and response rate Weights 27 Chapter 6. Study of university students (B3.2) Basic information Population Sampling frame Sampling design and sample size Effective sample size and response rate Weights 32 Chapter 7. Study of training institutions (C1) Basic information Population Sampling frame Sampling design and sample size Effective sample size and response rate Weights 38 List of tables 39 3

4 List of acronyms List of acronyms GUS Central Statistical Office BKL Study of Human Capital in Poland (BKL) CAPI computer assisted personal interview (electronic form) CATI computer assisted telephone interview (electronic form) CAWI computer assisted web-based interview (electronic form) CBOP Central Database of Job Offers CEiAPP UJ Centre for Evaluation and Analysis of Public Policies at the Jagiellonian University GIODO Office of the Inspector General for Personal Data Protection MB SMG/KRC MillwardBrown SMG/KRC, contractor of field research PAPI pen and paper personal interview PARP Polish Agency for Enterprise Development PESEL Universal Electronic System for Registration of the Population PUP state Employment Agency in the given poviat (county) REGON National Official Business Register UJ Jagiellonian University US Kraków Statistical Office in Kraków 4

5 Introduction Introduction The Study of Human Capital in Poland project (BKL Study) conducted by the Polish Agency for Enterprise Development (Polish acronym PARP) in partnership with the Centre for Evaluation and Analysis of Public Policies at the Jagiellonian University (CEiAPP UJ) is targeted at the recognition of competence resources present in the Polish labour market. Its main goal is to compare the demand for competences (skills and qualifications) from the Polish business sector and the competences offered by the participants of the supply side of the labour market: employees, unemployed people, university students, and students of higher secondary schools. Thanks to this, it will be possible to identify the potential competence gaps in the professional, sectoral, and regional structure, also within various professional competences. To provide as comprehensive an image as possible, the investigations of the demand (employers) and supply sides of the labour market are complemented with an analysis of the institutional bodies responsible for the shaping of the Polish labour market: the system of education and training institutions. This document sums up the premises and the mode of conducting the first series of field research being part of the BKL. 1 It describes the following study modules: study of employers study of job offers study of the population study of people registered as unemployed in employment agencies study of students of higher secondary schools study of university students study of training institutions. The questionnaires used in field studies are available on the project website: Descriptions of the study modules consist of the following elements: Basic information a brief summary of the main characteristic features of the study: 2 unit of the study sampling frame method of data collection (information about techniques used for gathering data) expected sample count size of the effective sample. Population detailed description of the studied population which the conclusions from the studies concern. 1 In matters concerning details of the studies, contents of the methodology reports sent together with the data by MB SMG/KRC were used. 2 All the studies were conducted in Poland, in the 4th quarter of The modules were covered by the standard method of control ensured by the operator of the study. The minimum number of contact attempts was five. Implementation of every study was preceded by a pilot study, with the minimum volume of the pilot sample being 50. 5

6 Introduction Sampling frame detailed description of the manner of acquisition of the contact data of the respondents, preparation of the data, the final content of the sampling frame, and also the assessment of the validity and quality of the data and of the coverage of the studied population by the sampling frame designed. Sampling method and sample size detailed description of the manner of selection of the sample (sampling procedure), together with the definition of the number and characteristic features of the stages of selection, the strata used, the volume of the reserve, and changes and amendments performed while conducting field studies, as compared to the premises. Effective sample size and response rate description of the sample actually used together with presentation of the results of return rate volume analysis. Weights description of the weights used for analysis and appended to the data collections, together with an explanation of the manner of their use and the premises for the construction, and also a summary concerning the representative quality of the results achieved. Due to its specific character, the model of investigation of the jobs offered comprised only selected elements of the description. Additionally, within the framework of the BKL, an analysis of subjects of study at schools and universities was performed. This analysis encompassed information about the current subjects of study, both in higher secondary schools and in universities in line with the field research discussed in parts 3.5 and 3.6. The analysis encompassed subjects of study of education in general and specialised secondary schools, technical secondary schools, basic vocational schools, and post-secondary schools (at upper secondary school level). It makes use of current data (as of 2010) available in the System of Information on Education (Polish acronym SIO). An ancillary investigation of the gross enrolment ratio values published in the Local Data Bank (GUS) was performed. In the case of universities, the subjects of study were examined at full-time (day-time) studies. The investigation covered complete data on the number of students and graduates gathered with the use of the S-10 form ( Reports on higher education ). Used additionally was data available from the websites of the Ministry of Science and Higher Education and the Local Data Bank (GUS). 6

7 Study of employers Chapter 1 Study of employers (A1) 1.1. Basic information Study unit: business entity Sampling mode: random, stratified non-proportional Data acquisition method: multi-mode (using various forms of contacts with respondents), mostly CATI, complementary forms: CAPI and CAWI. Expected sample count: Effective sample count: Population The study embraced business entities currently operating in the market, i.e. active while conducting the field study, employing at least one person. Due to the subject of the study being human capital, selected categories of businesses were focused on. The following were therefore excluded from the study population: local units entities from the following sections: A agriculture, forestry, hunting, and fishery O public administration and national defence; compulsory social insurance T households employing staff; households producing goods and providing services for their own needs U extra-territorial organisations and teams entities from the Section 94 Operation of Membership Organisations, according to NACE as implemented in Poland in entities with special legal forms, including: 48 foundations, 50 the Catholic Church, 51 other churches and denominations, 55 associations, 60 civic organisations not listed otherwise, 70 political parties, 72 trade unions, 73 employer organisations, 76 economic and professional selfgovernment, 85 housing communities, 90 unions of groups of agricultural producers. 3 Please note that, being adjusted to Polish and not international reality, the Polish classification (PKD) differs from NACE at more detailed levels. 7

8 Study of employers The reason for the exclusion of the above-mentioned sectors from the scope of the research was the fact that its result was to be aligned with the goals of spending funds for the development of human capital, whose operator is the Polish Agency for Enterprise Development. The staffing needs of public administration are already an object of separate diagnoses. Moreover, a careful insight into the firms and institutions from these specific sectors and those types of businesses was not possible with the expected sample size in mind. At the same time, it is important to emphasise looking at the scope of the population investigated that the expected population encompassed a decided majority of employers operating in the Polish labour market, especially when one considers the number of the staff they employ Sampling frame The list of businesses used in the sample ordered from the Statistical Office in Kraków (US in Kraków) originated from the REGON database held by the Central Statistical Office (GUS) verified with the use of other information available to the GUS. Due to problems with attaining the expected response rate by MB SMG/KRC, it was necessary to top up the study sample so as to provide the amount of data on the entities necessary to provide the expected effective sample size. After two instances of additional drawing of entities by the US in Kraków, the MB SMG/KRC sampling frame taken from the EFEKT database, which is at the disposal of the Polskie Centrum Marketingowe, was additionally used in the study. Eventually, 6.5% of the final sample came from the additional sampling frame Sampling design and sample size The sampling of the entities was stratified (in reference to the region (voivodeship) and the number of people employed in the entity) and non-proportional (due to the domination of the entities of the up to 9 employees category in the population). 1. The original sample drawn by US in Kraków from the REGON database Originally, the sample was divided into two parts: a) a sample of all major entities in the studied population, and b) chosen at random from among the remaining entities. a) Selection of the largest entities Selected for this sample were the 9900 largest entities that belonged to the studied population, independent of the region. Therefore, the sample included: all the entities from the subclass from 1000 employees up all the entities from the subclass from 250 to 999 employees a random selection of the missing entities from the subclass from 50 to 249 employees with the assumption that 90% of the additionally selected entities are those from the subclass from 100 to 249 employees. b) Random selection of the remaining entities The second sample covered 22,960 entities from the subclasses 0-9, , and employees, 1435 in each region, proportionally to the proportion of these categories in the region, while only 50% of entities from the 0-9 employees subclass were drawn in comparison to the proportion of this group in the population, and the remaining part of the records that originally belonged to the 0-9 employees subclass was drawn from the remaining two subclasses, proportionally to their proportion in the region s population. 8 4 Drawing could take place only from a group defined thus, even though self-employed people did not participate in the study.

9 Selection of 32,860 records to carry out 16,000 interviews assumed a 60% rate of return and a redundancy of records due to the potential errors in the sampling frame (even up to around 20%, due to the impossibility of excluding self-employed people from the study, the potential lack of currency of data, and errors in companies contact data). Study of employers 2. Additional samples drawn by US in Kraków from the REGON database Due to the difficulties in attaining the assumed response rate, two samples were additionally drawn: respectively 5360 and 5296 entities from the 0-9, 10-49, and employees subclasses from all the 16 regions, in a manner analogous to the random sample which was the basic sample (described in point 1 above). 3. The additional sample drawn by MB SMG/KRC from the EFEKT database To top up the expected number of interviews for the strata of the smallest and largest entities, 2862 records from the up to 9 subclass were drawn through simple random sampling by MB SMG/KRC, and 216 entities were selected from the employees subclass. Drawn were 5000 entities from the up to 9 class, and later out of that number 2900 entities (that is the number of records that could realistically be used in the time remaining for the project), from which duplicated entries were removed. The additional selection of the 216 records from the employees subclass was based on a comparison of the data between the EFEKT and REGON databases and the removal of duplicates Effective sample size and response rate Discrepancies occurred between the data on the size of the enterprise between the data from the sample and the results from the study (eventually: 43 cases updated by MB SMG/KRC). Similar discrepancies occurred in the case of the sector (NACE category) in 1431 cases. The statistics below are based on the original values (from the sample). Only in the case of the sample from the EFEKT database, due to the lack of information about NACE 2007 provided by MB SMG/KRC, was data from the interviews used. From the initial number of 46,614 records, 503 were excluded, as they concerned entities that were included twice in the database (verification was conducted on the grounds of the following variables: telephone number and REGON number). From the basic random sample provided by the US in Kraków one record was removed, while the additional samples randomised by the US in Kraków were diminished due to purging by 4% and 5% of records respectively. While the studies were being conducted, additional information on records that needed removing from the sample was obtained: self-employed (2115) undergoing liquidation or non-existent (325). As a result, the effective sample size was a database composed of 43,671 records that comprised 93.7% of the original, which corresponds to the sampling frame error of 6.3%. A total of 16,009 interviews were conducted that successfully went through controls, of which 168 entities from the EFEKT sample were excluded as they belonged to the A and O categories of the NACE. Thus, the general rate of return amounted to 36.6% (including the 168 entities from outside the population processed). Over 36% of cases among the records that were not processed ended up with the following status: nobody answers the phone answerphone or fax number busy the number does not exist wrong number 9

10 Study of employers This suggests that concentration on contact by CATI does not allow a final valuation of the quality of sampling frame from the point of view of records that do not exist, but only a claim that in these cases contact by phone is more difficult. 5 After the exclusion of the cases described above, the rate of return amounted to 47.8%. Of all the non-processed records, a decided refusal of respondents or intermediaries occurred in only 45% of cases. Of the unprocessed cases, 15% were the cases of unsuccessful ing of the questionnaire, and 8% of unsuccessful field contact. Therefore, if in the calculation of the rate of return one accounted only for the cases of lack of success in the form of refusal in CATI or an unsuccessful result of CAWI or CAPI, the rate of return would amount to 57.8%. It is worth adding that in 12% of cases of non-processed records, an appointment was made, which means that at least some of these records could have been processed Weights The weighting of the sample of employers was performed to compensate for non-identical probability of individuals from the population entering the sample resulting from the assumed sampling plan: the sample was drawn (with the exclusion of the 9,900 largest enterprises that were a stratum with internal probability of members being entered equal to 1) in the same count (1435) in each region in strata defined by the number of employed: up to 9, from 9 to 49, and from 50 to 249 (with the exclusion of the businesses that were used to complement the stratum of the largest employers, taken from the last of the three categories mentioned above), proportionally to the proportion of these strata in the populations of the regions, with the exception of the stratum of up to 9 employees, whose proportion in the sample taken from every region amounted to half of its participation in the population from the region. The records that originally corresponded to the subclass up to 9 employees were drawn from the two remaining subclasses, proportionally to the proportion in the population of the region. The decrease in the proportion of the stratum of the smallest enterprises resulted from the domination in the population, and the intention to acquire a better representation of larger businesses. Due to difficulties in obtaining the expected rate of return, two samples were additionally drawn: 5,360 and 5,296 entities from the employer subclasses 0-9, 10-49, and from all 16 regions, in a manner analogous to that described above. Additionally, to complement the expected number of interviews conducted in the strata of the smallest and largest enterprises, 2,862 records from the subclass of up to 9 employers were drawn in a simple random sampling by MB SMG/KRC, and the non-duplicating businesses were selected from the subclass of employees in the amount of 216. Despite the efforts of the firm conducting the studies in the field, only some businesses participated. Compensating for the non-identical probability of the execution of the division into the six categories of the NACE developed especially for the needs of the weighting, a division was included in the set of stratifying variables. The assignment of more detailed NACE categories to the six classes was based on the analysis of combinations maximising the differentiation between the classes of the key variables analysed in the studies. The final calculation of weights was conducted so that their proportion in a sample of combinations of the strata (region and the number of employees class) with the six NACE classes corresponded to their proportion in the sampling frame which was the best currently available state of the register of businesses active in Poland at the time when the study was conducted (GUS). Population-related weights were calculated to allow population counts and the standardised weights adding up to the count of the sample to be estimated during the analyses. For the needs of estimating the number of the employees needed, it was assumed that the cases with extreme declared numbers of employees sought would have their population weights set to the level of 1. The upper so-called Tukey s jackknife, i.e. a variance estimator with a value equal more or less to the upper quartile, increased by the doubled interquartile range (a way of defining the extreme values well-known in statistics, used among others for the generation of diagnostic box plots and stem-and-leaf plots) was approved as the criterion of extremity. The upper Tukey s jackknife was calculated separately for each stratum of enterprises listed above in terms of the number of employed The assumed possibility of multimode research allowed personal contact to be made at the address on the file.

11 Characteristic of the weights acquired in this manner is a high variance in the situation of global estimations at the level of the entire country. The variance of the weights drops substantially when the analysis is conducted at the level of regions and in the categories of business size. Thanks to this, in the case of investigations within these categories, the small size of the sample is to a certain degree compensated for by a smaller loss of precision caused by the variance of weights. In the case of analysis at the national level, the mechanism operates in the opposite direction. Study of employers 11

12 Study of job offers Chapter 2 Study of job offers (A2) 2.1. Basic information Study unit: job offers (with the exclusion of internships and traineeships for secondary school and university students) Sampling mode: exhaustive, job offers valid for the selected day Expected sample count: minimum 20,000 Effective sample count: 20, Population and data sources The concept of the study was to assume all unique job offers from all the 16 regions that were valid on the day selected for the study. Unique job offer means an advertisement stating that employees are sought for an individual post, published on a specific day and present once in every source of such announcements. 6 The object of the investigation was the offers gathered by the employment offices in the county (poviat level, further referred to as PUPs) and placed online through non-public job broker portals. The population of all the job offers was limited to those available in two types of sources: County Employment Offices (PUP) and Careerjet.pl a national web job brokerage portal (job offer browser). The selection of Careerjet.pl resulted mostly from the following reasons: the portal gathers links to other portals mediating in searching for employment, so it does not cause limitation to only one source of data it does not promote any specific portal, and accounts also for data of a local range, even from small firms that are specific to the given sector it provides an opportunity to test the volume of information published in the content of the advertisement from the point of view of the scope of the given portal furthermore, it allows the number of sources of data in which the given employer has placed its advertisements to be checked, as well as whether there is any dependency between this number and e.g. sector, profession, or specific competences of the employees sought The offer does not need to contain a profession sought. Nevertheless, such a situation was present only in 1% of the analysed ads.

13 2.3. Progress of the study Study of job offers The progress of the study was divided into a number of stages: collection of job offers loading of job offers from test files to internal software verification and coding of job offers. 1. The stage of collection of job offers a) PUPs 13th September 2010 was chosen as the validity date of the job offers that were to be collected. Gathered first were all the job offers from the PUPs. They were to be collected at the offices which were selected to carry out the study among the unemployed (10 PUPs per region). Due to the impossibility of conducting studies among the unemployed (discussed in Chapter 4) there is a divergence between the samples in all the PUPs selected: the analysis of the offers encompassed the following PUPs, where no studies among the unemployed were conducted: Biała Podlaska, Brzesko, Głubczyce, Góra, Kalisz, Pruszków, Siemianowice Śląskie, and Tarnowskie Góry; the analysis of the offers was not conducted in the following PUPs, where studies among the unemployed were conducted: Jędrzejów, Mińsk Mazowiecki, Nysa, Poznań, Radzyń Podlaski, Sucha Beskidzka, Wałbrzych, and Zabrze. In the weeks preceding the date on which the announcements were recorded, a query of availability and validity of job offers was conducted for individual employment offices selected for the study. It encompassed the Central Database of Job Offers (Polish acronym CBOP) and websites of selected employment offices. Worth noting is the fact that all the vacancies advertised in CBOP feature the same format and the description they contain is more detailed than the information available from the websites of individual employment offices. Therefore, it was decided primarily to use CBOP in the study. Yet in the case of 43 offices, CBOP proved an inappropriate source of data due to the lack or a very small number of valid offers, and also lack of updates of the offers within a month preceding the initiation date of the study. In the case of these PUPs a decision was made to contact the staff of the office directly to collect the job offers on the spot. As the publication date of the announcement in the database was not always tantamount to the date of registration of the offer in the given employment office, while collecting the offers two dates were paid particular attention to: the date of submission of the offer to the employment office, and the offer validity deadline. Collection of job offers from CBOP began on 11th September (Saturday) and continued on 12th September (Sunday). 13th September was the day of verification whether the announcements taken down in the two previous days were still available on the website. Their number was also complemented with the new announcements that came up on that day. The process of entry of offers from CBOP finished on 13th September. The other technique of acquiring job offers from employment offices assumed direct contact with the selected office. The collection of the jobs advertised from the selected PUPs began with direct contact with the selected employment office on 13th or 14th September. Depending on the speed of action of the PUPs and arrival of information from the field, announcements were successively entered into the database from 14th to 17th September. b) Careerjet.pl In the case of the Careerjet.pl portal, decisive and the first step was the registration date of the job offer, which means that all the advertised positions valid on 13th September 2010 were collected. The work of a few dozen interviewers continued for 12 to 14 hours a day for four days. Each of them received a specific sector from Careerjet.pl or a specific employment office to list. In the case of sectors where the number of advertised vacancies was very high, teams were built to share the work within the given sector appropriately. After the listing of the offer, the interviewer copied the offer to a special text form. 95% of the announcements were copied 13

14 Study of job offers piece by piece as copy paste. The transferring of the actual offers onto the onscreen form provided no trouble. Only the hidden tab characters and text formatting were an impediment at the stage of entering the data from the test files into internal software. It was necessary to devote additional time to correcting the raw data format. In the case of the offers that were sent on paper or as pictures, the interviewer entered the data from the ad into the form manually. Acquired in the first stage were 21,195 job ads, including 152 without the name of the profession/job sought, or one that could not be coded. The first stage, that is the building of a database of the ads in text form, was completed after six days of work. It is notable that the data coming from the online source is far richer in its content than the data acquired from the PUPs. The employers placing their ads on online portals were able to prepare a far more detailed description, and therefore refine their requirements better. In the case of the PUPs, the content (in the form) of the ad was limited by the screen on which the profession sought and potential preferences concerning education and knowledge of foreign languages are entered. 2. The stage of entering job offers from text files to the internal software The next stage was the introduction of data from text files to internal software (the use of software streamlined and sped up the processes of data entry) with simultaneous coding of competences and subjects of study. Acquired in the original form, the job offers were divided according to the variables that were subjected to coding and entered into a form in a text file that permitted text editing. Due to the total size of the individual text files (exceeding 800 MB), it was decided not to combine them in a single document. For this reason every ad is presented in a separate text file, whose name is a unique ID of the given offer in the encoded database. After the conclusion of the stage of date entry from text files to the internal software, the database was composed of 21,195 job offers prepared for processing in the.sav format and encoded with the competence key. Approximately 8,400 offers originated in employment offices, and the remaining ones from the careerjet.pl browser. Removed from the collection at this stage were duplicated ads and those which did not specify the profession. This stage of work lasted for approximately 20 working days. 3. The stage of coding and verification of job offers The original number of ads (21,195) was reduced. After the coding of all the variables, the process of verification of the ads was initiated. This was because the database contained some ads that were duplicated. This resulted from the fact that the employers published ads with identical content on multiple portals devoted to employment. Altogether, approximately 1000 cases of content duplication were discovered in the database. Moreover, the verification also involved also quality of the announcements: a few that comprised only residual/partial information (and primarily lacked information about the profession sought) were removed, as they did not allow later analysis, e.g. in the case of: hiring now plus mobile telephone number. The stage of coding and verification lasted for 14 days. After the verification, the final encoded database was composed of 20,009 job offers (8,198 from employment offices, and the remaining 11,811 from the careerjet.pl portal). Every job offer was coded independently by two coders in line with the categorisation key containing the list of competences. Any offer could be assigned to more than one category. 103 ads were selected at random to test the coding credibility. For each of the jobs examined, first the number of codes used jointly by both the coders was checked, and later the number of coinciding codes was tested. The control procedure applied allowed a credibility factor of 0.72 to be attained. 14

15 Study of the population Chapter 3 Study of the population (B1) 3.1. Basic information Study unit: person Sampling mode: random, stratified proportional within regions Data acquisition method: CAPI/PAPI. Expected sample count: 17,600. Effective sample count: 17, Population The population examined were people of working age, i.e. women aged and men aged living in Poland at the time of the study Sampling frame The contact data were taken from the Universal Electronic System for Registration of the Population (PESEL) register Sampling design and sample size The sampling was of the stratified proportional type. 1. Sampling design The process included territorial stratification encompassing division into GUS subregions (NUTS-3, i.e. 66 subregions in the countryside, a few in each region) and the city size classes according to GUS (9 classes): rural areas (non-urbanised) 15

16 Study of the population cities (urbanised areas): 10,000-19,999 20,000-49,999 50,000-99, , , , , , ,999 1,000,000+ Warsaw. Due to the manner of stratification, units that belonged to individual classes are not present in all the regions and subregions: for example, Warsaw accounts for a separate sub-region in the Mazowieckie Region, and so do four cities with a population exceeding 500,000: Kraków, Łódź, Poznań, and Wrocław). Additionally, the stratification of the sample covered the breakdown into genders, and age cohorts for the individual classes of city sizes, for every region independently. The following age brackets were assumed as age cohorts for the genders: W18-29, M18-29 W30-39, M30-39 W40-49, M40-49 W50-59, M50-64 To streamline the efficiency of the studies, the units were gathered into clusters at the sampling stage, which meant that 10 records were drawn from one single administrative unit (city/rural municipality). As previous experience of MB SMG/KRC proved, such a number of interviews is optimum for the purpose of a study in which the interviewer is forced to return repeatedly to the selected respondent, as it allows for multiple contacts to be tested during one day designed for the stay in a specific place. The drawing of the administrative units was performed within the strata defined by the size of city classes and subregions, according to the method with replacement with the probability proportional to the number of residents in the given administrative unit. The clustering results in a rounding of the stated counts in individual regions. Thanks to this, with a constant count of the cluster, the probability of individual units that belong to the studied population entering the sample is equal. In the rural stratum, the drawing was performed with the probability proportional to the number of residents aged 18-59(W)/64(M) in the given municipality. 2. Detailed description of the procedure used The basic strata were the counts of population of working age (women aged 18-59, and men aged 18-64) referred to as population later in the documents. The data was updated for 30th June 2009 (Demografia2010). The national sample consisted of 16 independent regional samples. Each of the regional ones consisted of 2000 people selected according to the following methodology: N(drawn) = (1100 / 0.6 )* 1.09 = 1998 (rounded up to 2000) Where 1100 is the target number of interviews with the rate of return assumed at 0.6, and the assumption made on the grounds of the previous experience of MB SMG/KRC that 9% of the contacts will prove mistaken. Errors in contacts result from a variety of reasons and pertain to: people who died between the making of the sample and the time when the study was conducted mistaken address data that prevented them from being found in the field references to people not living at the given address, and not known to the people who reside there references to people who have remained abroad for over six months, and the date of whose return to Poland is unknown (permanent emigration). 16 As the study assumed clustering of the interviews into tens, the count of the sample drawn for each region was rounded up to 2000 records.

17 3. The further description concerns each region separately The stratification of the sample encompassed city size classes (described above), and in the case of urban-rural municipalities, the rural part of the municipality (included in class 1 villages) was counted separately from the urban part of the municipality (city), which was included in one of the city classes in accordance with the actual number of residents (further in the text, a rural municipality, a rural part of an urban-rural municipality, a city-municipality, and a city being the urban part of a urban-rural municipality treated separately, are referred to as administrative units and are the original units in the drawing of the sample PJL). Thus, each of the regional samples included nine strata, with some of them remaining empty (due to the lack of a city of defined size in the given region; for example, in Warmińsko-Mazurskie Region, there are no cities from the three largest size classes). Study of the population The count of the sample in the individual strata corresponds to the proportion of population in the stratum compared to the population of the region, with rounding up to the full 10 interviews. In every stratum (size class) the original units in the drawing of the sample (PJL), in this case individual administrative units, were drawn. The probability of drawing a PJL within a stratum was proportional to the count of the population in the individual PJL (the Population variable) compared to the population count in the stratum (total population in the given size class in the region). For each stratum, the number of PJLs drawn resulted from the assumption of a constant number of interviews within a PJL, amounting to 10 (production cluster). This type of clustering did not mean drawing of collective items, as the addresses of the people drawn were not clustered within the administrative unit. The drawing was performed in a methodology using returns, which means the possibility of repeated drawing of the given PJL (the number of interviews in a PJL is a multiple of 10). In many regions, the largest cities are the only ones in the given city size class, e.g. Wrocław, Kraków, Łódź, Warszawa and Poznań (over 500,000 inhabitants), but so are Lublin and Białystok in the population class of over 200,000. The drawing was performed for whole cities, without accounting for subdivision into districts. In each PJL, a simple drawing of people from the studied population was performed in rural areas, from all the villages without additional divisions, and in urban areas from the area of the entire city, without applying intermediate strata of drawing. In each PJL a cluster of 10 people was drawn (or its N-time multiple in the case of repeated PJL sampling, in the process of drawing with returning). 4. The random-route method To assure the possibility of completing the planned effective size of the sample, it was permitted to conduct the missing interviews according to the random-route method. The name random-route is to be construed as ustalona scieżka (Polish for set path ) rather than random passage in the field. This is the only approach that guarantees the respondent being chosen independently from the will and desire of the interviewer, and therefore the objectiveness of the process that guarantees the true random character of the sample. For selection of respondents according to this method, it was crucial to pay attention to two basic factors: a) definition of the criteria for choosing the respondent, b) definition of the starting addresses and the way that the interviewer moves in the field. It was necessary to preserve the criteria of selection of the respondent (gender and age) and recruitment within the city or village defined. The place where the interviewer began working was determined in the drawing. When it turned out that the person found in the random-route method for objective reasons could not be a respondent in the study, the search procedure was continued at the new addresses, which now became the starting addresses. The way that the interviewer moves may or may not be modified, but is always strictly defined. The criteria for respondent selection remain unchanged. The procedure continues until success is attained. 17

18 Study of the population The detailed instructions for the interviewers contained the following description of the steps: starting from the given address, find an address whose number is greater by one, where you should select a respondent should the missing number be the last one in the given range, you should move to the number smaller by one if there is a person who meets the defined selection criteria in the given household, you should interview that person if no interview with a person meeting the selection criteria can be conducted in the household, you must look for such a person in the following household each time, searching for a respondent should be continued until successful Effective sample size and response rate Altogether 17,906 interviews were conducted, 943 of them according to the random-route methodology. This accounts for 56% rate of the return, higher in smaller cities. Table III.1. The size of the rate of return and reasons for the failure to conduct the interviews: Interviews conducted 56.0% Nobody available at the given address 6.3% The person drawn is temporarily absent 1.2% Request for a change to the date of the visit 0.1% Other reasons for not conducting the interview return to the respondent 0.6% The person drawn has moved away for a period exceeding three months 8.8% Refusal to let the interviewer into the house 2.7% Absence during the study 5.1% Refusal to participate in the study by return of the notification 3.0% Refusal to participate in the study via call centre 0.1% Categorical refusal to participate in the study 12.5% The person drawn is indisposed 0.5% Other reasons for not conducting the interview with the person drawn 2.9% Source: Own study. It was decided to use the random-route method in the case when the last failed contact with the potential respondent took place on 10th October This method of reaching the respondents was resorted to only in cities of over 50,000 residents, due to the low level of attainment in these city size classes. The actual launch of the random-route method searches began on 14th October Worth adding is the fact that the results including the sample conducted according to random-route methodology do not diverge from the results that do not include it, which is why the records were treated in the same way as the remaining ones Weights To compensate for the differences in the rate of return in individual strata, weights were used to correct the total distribution of the sample towards the population in respect to region, age, and gender. The non-concluded interviews resulted mostly from the respondent s absence at home, which invites the conjecture that the results may not be fully representative for people migrating for profit and for example students. 18

19 Study of the registered unemployed Chapter 4 Study of the registered unemployed (B2) 4.1. Basic information Study unit: person Sampling design: two strata PUP: random, systematic stratified, non-proportional people: random, systematic or entrance poll Data acquisition method: CAPI Expected sample count: 8,000 Effective sample count: 8, Population People registered at employment offices as unemployed. Legal grounds: Act of 20th April 2004 on promotion of employment and institutions of the labour market (uniform text from 2008, Journal of Laws No. 69, item 415 with later amendments) Decision of the Minister of Economy and Labour of 26th November 2004 concerning the registration of the unemployed and jobseekers (Journal of Laws No. 262, item 2607 with later amendments) + the change (Journal of Laws No. 210, item 1746) Decision of the Minister of Economy and Labour of 6th October 2004 concerning the detailed mode of awarding unemployment benefit, training benefit, scholarship, and activation benefit (Journal of Laws No. 219, item 2222) with later amendments (Journal of Laws No. 210, item 1747) Sampling frame The original sampling frame was the complete list of PUPs operating in July

20 Study of the registered unemployed The list was created from: the National Labour Market Monitoring System (Polish acronym: KSMRP) the address list from the Public Information Bulletin (BIP) of the Ministry of the Interior and Administration the PUP address database to be found on the websites of public employment services, and information on the websites of PUPs. Each of the sources comprised different information, and only the use of all these sources and verification of data on websites allowed the telephone and address list to be compiled. The drawing units were the main offices (altogether 337), therefore no branches of PUPs were included in the sampling frame. Included for the purpose of future weighting is the information about the current number of people registered in the county according to the statistics available from the GUS Regional Data Bank (today: Local Data Bank). Due to the differences between the division into PUPs and the administrative division into counties, special solutions had to be applied in three cases before the drawing of PUPs in line with the data concerning the number of unemployed in the counties: in the case of counties without PUPs (and analogously: in the case of more than one county being catered for by a single PUP) the counts of people registered as unemployed were aggregated for the office serving the counties in question in the case of a county being handled by more than one PUP (as with the offices in Łódź) a single PUP was drawn in simple drawing in the case of a county divided into the urban and remaining parts (e.g. in Kraków: Municipal Employment Office and County Employment Office in Kraków), one of them was drawn in a simple draw. In this way, 43 PUPs did not enter the sampling frame from which they were drawn. This method of preparing the sampling frame was aimed at its optimisation for studies in the field. Drawn were individual PUPs and not counties, as the second stage of drawing required cooperation with the PUPs (on the assumption of working on individual named samples); moreover, the PUPs drawn were used as a sample for researching employment offers. In the original assumption, the sampling frames for the second stage of the draw were to be the updated registers of unemployed people (the so-called name lists) in the PUPs drawn. Early in the study, however, it turned out that there were problems with acquiring the sampling frames from some PUPs, and moreover, the Office of the Inspector General for Personal Data Protection (GIODO) published a statement that was unfavourable for continuing the study. In the light of the statement, no lists of registered unemployed could be provided by the PUPs, as the binding laws do not envisage such an option. For that reason, a decision was made early in October 2010 to switch to direct examinations in PUPs. As a result, the study on a named sample was conducted only in the case of 12 PUPs. Samples based on named sample frames were conducted only in: Brzeziny, Dębica, Krotoszyn, Nakło, Pisz, Poznań, Zamość, Świdwin, Rybnik, Sucha Beskidzka, Kamienna Góra, and Jędrzejów Sampling design and sample size The drawing was performed in two stages: 1. In the first stage PUPs were drawn in the stratified method 20 In each of the 16 regions, the offices were selected in a simple random draw, without returning. Later, a contingency sample was collected from the remaining PUPs. In four regions, PUPs were selected from the remaining ones: in Opolskie 1 PUP, in Lubuskie 2 PUPs, in Świętokrzyskie 3 PUPs, and in Podlaskie 4 PUPs.

21 In the case of the remaining regions, which included more than 14 PUPs, simple random selection was made and 4 contingency PUPs were selected. 2. In the second stage people registered as unemployed were randomly drawn Study of the registered unemployed Due to the need to change the manner of selection while running the project, two ways of selecting the sample were employed: using the PUP registers, and at PUP offices every quarter of an hour, from the visitors to the office. a) the so-called named sample, a systematic, random mode from the updated PUP register (in 12 PUPs) In every PUP, 200 people registered as unemployed were to be drawn, and the minimum of 50 interviews were to be conducted. Such a large size of contingency batch resulted from the experience of MB SMG/KRC in studying unemployed people some data used to prove invalid. Thanks to the option of acquiring a list of names, this ensured a sufficient number of contacts to conduct 50 interviews. In the 12 PUPs from which lists of names of unemployed people were received, respondents were drawn in a systematic random manner, with a randomly selected starting point and the size of the step defined from the size of the sampling frame. Eventually, the named sample allowed the acquisition of 2133 contacts: County Employment Office in Brzeziny: 159 County Employment Office in Dębica: 127 County Employment Office in Jędrzejów: 200 County Employment Office in Kamienna Góra: 200 County Employment Office in Krotoszyn: 200 County Employment Office in Nakło nad Notecią: 151 County Employment Office in Pisz: 200 County Employment Office in Poznań: 135 County Employment Office in Rybnik: 200 County Employment Office in Sucha Beskidzka: 183 County Employment Office in Świdwin: 178 County Employment Office in Zamość: 200 For two months attempts were made to conduct the study according to this methodology. PARP delivered the databases acquired from the individual PUPs to MB SMG/KRC. Additionally, the interviewers undertook attempts at acquiring the data on their own. Early in October, a statement by GIODO denied PARP the use of data of unemployed people gathered in this manner. This resulted in an immediate withdrawal from conducting the study on the named samples with the exception of the cases where the study in the field was already underway. The copies of personal data of unemployed people were returned to PARP. The decision to shift to the entrance poll method was reached. b) the so-called entrance poll conducted in a systematic random manner (first person every 15 minutes) from among the visitors in the given PUP. In 149 PUPs (also including the PUP in Brzeziny, where the study was also conducted on a named sample), the so-called entrance poll method was applied. Selected for the study was every first person who arrived in the office at the given quarter of an hour. If, for example, the study began at 8:00am, the first person to enter the PUP at 8:00am was selected for the study, the next one at 8:15am, the following one at 8:30am, 8:45am, 9:00am, etc. If in the minute beginning the new quarter, nobody entered the PUP, the first person to arrive at the office between 8:00am and 8:15am was selected, and so forth. If it was not possible to conduct the interview on the spot, the interviewer asked for contact details and arranged an interview at a different time. The priority was to register the people who were the first in the given quarter hour. In over 88% of cases interviews were successfully conducted with the first person who turned up in the given quarter of an hour. 21