The unemployed the untapped resources of Polish economy

Transcription

1 Study of Human Capital in Poland 2011 Report from a survey of unemployed conducted in 2010 as part of Study of Human Capital in Poland The unemployed the untapped resources of Polish economy Konrad Turek HUMAN CAPITAL NATIONAL COHESION STRATEGY EUROPEAN UNION EUROPEAN SOCIAL FUND

2 The Study of Human Capital in Poland project is conducted by its research team composed of: Department of Human Capital Development, Polish Agency for Enterprise Development: Anna Świebocka-Nerkowska project manager Maja Dobrzyńska Beata Michorowska Centre for Evaluation and Analysis of Public Policies at the Jagiellonian University in Kraków: Professor Jarosław Górniak project manager dr Szymon Czarnik dr Magdalena Jelonek Karolina Keler dr Marcin Kocór Katarzyna Stec Anna Strzebońska Anna Szczucka Dariusz Szklarczyk Konrad Turek dr Barbara Worek Publication co-financed by the European Union from European Social Fund. This publication is free of charge. The views and opinions presented in this publication do not reflect the position of the Polish Agency for Enterprise Development but only the views of the authors. Copyright by Polska Agencja Rozwoju Przedsiębiorczości Copyright by Uniwersytet Jagielloński Publisher: Polska Agencja Rozwoju Przedsiębiorczości / Polish Agency for Enterprise Development ul. Pańska Warszawa, Poland phone: fax: biuro@parp.gov.pl translation: HOBBiT Piotr Krasnowolski ISBN Electronic version of the publication is available from 2 1st edition Warsaw 2011

3 Table of contents 1. Introduction 5 2. Main conclusions Potential of the unemployed registered with employment offices Situation of the unemployed in the study Ways of seeking work The grey zone Training Methodology of the study Study sample selection Categorisation of occupations Measurement of competencies Comments on the interpretation of the results Unemployment in Poland general information Review of the study results Basic information about the studied sample Education Situation in households Current situation and past career of the respondents Looking for work Manner of seeking work Factors that render starting work difficult Competencies of the unemployed respondents Language competencies Wage aspirations of the respondents Training of the respondents State of health of the respondents 84 Statistical annex 85 List of figures 93 3

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5 Introduction 1. Introduction We hereby present an initial review of the results acquired in the first round of the study which is part of the Study of Human Capital project conducted by the Polish Agency for Enterprise Development (PARP) in partnership with the Jagiellonian University to the people responsible for planning human capital development policies, and all groups and individuals interested in the current situation in the supply and demand of competences on the Polish labour market. The data was collected by Millward Brown SMG/KRC. The study is aimed primarily at the diagnosis of the demand for employees with specific competences and the availability of these competences on the labour market, among both people who have already completed their education and those who are still in education yet are coming to the end of a significant stage of it: upper secondary school or first or second-stage degree education. These are the results of the first round of the study (of the planned five), which will allow a snapshot to be taken of not only the state but also the trends concerning the supply and demand for human capital. Many economists and development strategists have warned that Poland will gradually exhaust its growth potential, resulting on the one hand from an improvement in the allocation of resources thanks to the operation of market mechanisms, and on the other from the increase in productivity of the capital and labour, thanks to the benefits of technology import, appropriate for the period of catching up with highly developed economies. The availability of employees with qualifications sufficient to absorb technology is one of the conditions for making good use of the catch-up period. At the same time, if our country is to move on to the following phase of development based not only on technology absorption, but also on technology development, changes will have to take place in many dimensions of the economy, society, and operation of the state. It is important that there is an increasing number of firms whose decision-making centres and research and development centres are situated in Poland. One of the conditions for such a scenario to take place is the availability of well-prepared managerial and engineering staff, but also executives furnished with competences necessary for the functioning of an innovative enterprise. Regulatory and fiscal order should assist in the commercialisation of inventions, which still poses a problem. If the development begins to follow such a scenario, we should perceive that by observing a trend in the demand for staff competences. This is why a study that will allow such a trend to be followed is worth embarking on. Waiting for innovation-based development cannot turn into waiting for Godot, which is a threat should the economy not be able to move fluently between the phases of development, providing this passage with the resources developed in the economy of the catch-up phase. Moreover, even if the developmental processes of the new type can be triggered, a large part of the economy will be based on the traditional model, and will require besides other conditions also an appropriate supply of human resources. This is an argument that proves that it is worthwhile to conduct, besides foresight-type studies, diagnostic ones identifying the current tensions and the deficits in competences in the labour market. The studies whose results we present here are intended to provide information useful for decision making. The organs of public administration which have at their disposal public funds are expected to conduct a suitable educational policy, or, more broadly, one that will develop human capital. The accuracy of public policies beyond doubt depends on the capacity to create adequate provisions of development, and skill in understanding the challenges, and yet it is also determined by the availability of information that allows problems to be identified, their scope to be defined, and concepts to be formulated for solutions to them. At this stage of the project, we quite naturally have at our disposal only a large-scale diagnosis of the status 5

6 Introduction quo. With the subsequent stages being conducted, opportunities for identifying the changes will also arise. The Study of Human Capital in Poland is a project conceived at the Polish Agency for Enterprise Development (PARP) that reacts to the deficit of information experienced while working on the planned support for the enterprise sector in the development of human resources, using funds from the European Social Fund as part of the Human Capital Operational Programme. Having conducted the pilot initial version of the concept of the study, PARP invited the team of the Centre for Evaluation and Analysis of Public Policies at the Jagiellonian University (CEiAPP), closely related (also personally) to the Department of the Sociology of Economy, Education and Research Methods of the Jagiellonian University to participate as a partner in the project. From the very beginning, the study was planned as a multi-aspect review of the demand and supply of competences in the labour market repeated in the five successive years. The study is composed of the following modules, distinguished by the group that they investigate: 1. Study of employers (excluding public administration and agriculture, forestry and fisheries, as well as some other small sections, which are listed in the methodological report) 2. Study of people of working age 3. Study of students in last years of upper secondary schools 4. Study of final-year university students (first and second-stage degrees) 5. Study of unemployed people registered in County Employment Offices (PUPs) 6. Study of job offers placed in County Employment Offices and on online portals 7. Study of training firms and institutions 6 Based on original research, these studies are complemented with an analysis of institutional data collections, including the Educational Information System (SIO) and information collected by the Central Statistical Office (GUS) from reports on tertiary education (S-10). Detailed information concerning the size of the samples and the data collection methods is provided in the methodology report and in individual thematic reports. The above list proves that a universal study was successfully conducted on the factors decisive in the situation of human capital in Poland. It was carried out on very large samples that allow a multitude of analyses, also at the level of regions (voivodeships). In this respect, it is definitely a unique study. During the concept work and consultations, and also during the subsequent tests, a set of research tools was developed. Such a set is always a compromise between the list of questions to which an answer is sought and the possibility of execution: one cannot conduct a study, going beyond the obligations set forth in acts of law, in which the length of the questionnaire would result in a refusal on the part of the respondent. For this reason we realise that, while some readers may be disappointed by the fact that we did not ask certain questions that we would like to know the answers to, we can say in advance that here we are united in our unsatisfied curiosity. We selected the questions primarily on the grounds of recognition of the information needs of the parties planning to use the results of these studies for construction of more effective public interventions in development of human capital resources in Poland. The proper rhythm of these studies will also be adjusted to the needs of these parties: they will take place at the end of the first and beginning of the second quarter, so that the results can be provided by the end of June, and the final report by September, thus allowing it to be used for planning purposes. Exceptionally, the first round of the study was conducted from the end of August to December The second round is currently being conducted. Such a timetable has both advantages and disadvantages. The strengths include primarily the possibility of combining the sets to study the profiles of needs articulated by the employers at a lower level of aggregation than in the case of results of a single round. This will also let us study the short-term changes that took place between the end of the period of relative stagnation in the labour market and the period of boom that is beginning. We also captured certain seasonal properties as the studies have been conducted in two different periods. In the case of the largest firms, we will also follow these changes on a panel subsample. The weaknesses include probably the disruption of the rhythm of the studies from the point of view of following the trend during multi-year studies and the passage of time from when the results are gathered to their use for planning purposes. Nevertheless, we believe that the benefits will at least balance out these weaknesses. The delayed start of the first round of the study resulted from formal and technical reasons (selection of the contractor to conduct work in the field), but unplanned effects were achieved, which will certainly be used during preparation of the reports from the second round of the study. The samples for the studies were constructed so as to provide useful information not only at the central, but also at the regional level. The details are included in the methodology report. Notable here is the fact that due to this regional dimension of the analyses, both the sample of the whole population, unemployed people, and school sections on the one hand, and the sample of businesses (with the exception of the large

7 enterprise segment, in which we studied all the entities that agreed to participate in the study) were drawn in an identical number in each region. This is a less effective system from the point of view of analysis of the data at the national level (where we make up for this with the count of the samples), but more effective from the point of view of a comparison between the regions and analyses within individual regions. Thus, in the case of the analysis for enterprise demand for personnel, the detailed analyses at the level of the region are frequently limited. Even in our, otherwise very large, sample, only every fifth enterprise declared demand for new personnel. The sample of enterprises was constructed with a large overrepresentation of businesses employing at least 10 people. According to GUS, businesses employing up to 9 people account for approximately 95% of the group studied. However, the scale of demand for staff from the larger businesses is disproportionately large compared to the proportion in the tested group. Focusing attention on larger businesses is therefore justified. Nevertheless, as a consequence, together with the distribution of the sample for the sake of information needs of the regions, this leads to a dissimilarity of the contents of the sample to the population, in reference to the size segments and the region where the firm has its headquarters. Where the distribution of traits is analysed at the level of the whole country, it is therefore necessary to use weighting. The research provided huge logistical demands. It could be coped with only by the largest research organisations and the Central Statistical Office, which for a variety of reasons could not participate in the conducting of this project. Nevertheless, GUS supports the project to the full extent allowed by law, for which we are exceptionally thankful. Research in the field was conducted by Poland s largest research operator, Millward Brown SMG/KRC, selected through a tendering procedure. It must be said that even for a firm with such a huge potential, the parallel execution of seven study modules was a major challenge. The study ended in success, although we also learned much while working on it. We are very thankful to our partners from the research firm for their involvement in the project and making efforts to ensure that the data acquisition process meets the highest standards achievable. We are convinced that this cooperation will also bring fruition in the subsequent rounds of the study. The first set of reports that we are supplying to all interested parties are thematic reports that contain summaries of the individual modules. They are a review of the results achieved and provide information about the scope of the information acquired. Moreover, they contain what we hope to be plenty of interesting observations concerning the groups studied. The major goal is to provide a report on the results, yet still without interlinking them. Such linkages on the scale of the labour market (with the exclusions on the side of the employers pointed to above) will be presented in the main report, which will be delivered as a separate publication. Quite naturally, general reports must remain at a certain level of generality, especially when it comes to the description of requirements related to members of personnel sought for various positions. These requirements are frequently unique. Moreover, the characteristic features in the operation of a firm are highly specific. The classifications used in the reports are at a relatively high level of aggregation. This results among others from the fact that despite a very large sample of enterprises, only a fifth of them sought employees, which allowed a decidedly smaller field for conducting analyses. And even if as in the case of research of the sample of population the size of the analysed data collection was decidedly larger, the number of the possible occupations was a requirement in the classification. The review presented is the first approximation. Interested readers will be able to generate more detailed listings on their own, using an application that will be made available on the project website. We count on the fact that both the general reports made available and the synthetic report integrating the results of the studies in individual modules for the sake of the balance of competences in the Polish labour market will provide important data helpful in the planning of operations in the scope of supporting the development of human capital in Poland. We believe that it will also be useful for enterprises in the scope of planning the development of human resources in firms, and for the sector of training firms for shaping the range of services offered. We perceive its potential in terms of shaping education policy towards the unemployed, even though representative studies of the registered unemployed encounter significant difficulties. This project is complementary for the other studies in the area, including those conducted by the Educational Research Institute, whose common objective is quality improvement of actions in the field of lifelong education, from early childhood to the late mature age. These actions are one of the strategic development challenges for Poland. To say, quoting Andrzej Frycz-Modrzewski, that the future Republics will be just like the education of their youths, does not go far enough. Because that education should now concern not only youth, but also adults. Yet are we, as a society, ready for that? Introduction 7

8 Main conclusions 2. Main conclusions 2.1. Potential of the unemployed registered with employment offices Towards the end of 2010, there were nearly 2,000,000 unemployed registered with County Employment Offices, a number that amounts to over 12% of occupationally active. The BKL Study 2010 covered sample of 8122 registered unemployed from the administrative regions (voivodeships). The main goal was to analyse the situation of this group of Poles and to diagnose the potential and the competency resources they have at their disposal. Employment sought No fewer than 90% of the respondents registered as unemployed actively sought work. The following occupations were the ones in which they most often looked for employment. occupations related to services and sales (27%) primarily sales workers, cooks, hairdressers, POS operators, waiters, cosmeticians worker and craftsmen occupations (18%) including mechanics, bricklayers, locksmiths/toolmakers, welders, carpenters/joiners, electricians, tailors, bakers, and confectioners, elementary occupations (15%)) including construction workers, labourers, cleaners and helpers, cleaners and caretakers office and related works (14%) including clerical support workers, warehouse staff, and secretaries. The type of work sought to a great degree depended on the level of education. Among the people with lower secondary and lower education, as many as 36% were looking for employment at elementary occupations. Among the people with basic and vocational education, most popular were worker and craft occupations (37%). Among the people with higher education, 55% sought employment in professional occupations (among others education professionals, that is mostly teachers 17%, and further 27% in office works). An interesting conclusion is the very clear profiling of occupations by the gender of people seeking work. It defines very cleanly two groups of occupations: 1. Feminised occupations including cleaners and helpers, food preparation assistants, sales workers, teaching professionals, Legal, social, cultural and related associate professionals, secretaries, health professionals and associate professionals, and personal service workers. 2. Masculinised occupations including workers, drivers, miners, computer specialists, electricians, numerical and material recording clerks, service workers, and science and engineering associate professionals. Most people sought employment as crafts and related trades workers in Dolnośląskie and Wielkopolskie administrative regions, and fewest in Małopolskie and Śląskie. In turn, in elementary works most people sought employment in Warmińsko-Mazurskie and Śląskie regions, and fewest in Małopolskie. Far more people sought employment in office occupations in Mazowieckie and Małopolskie than in any other region. The largest supply of unemployed potential professionals was recorded in Łódzkie, Małopolskie, Mazowieckie, Opolskie and Wielkopolskie. Majority (nearly 60%) of respondents previously employed on the power of contract of employment sought employment in the same major group of occupations (ISCO-1) in which they worked before. The remaining respondents usually reduce their aspirations and try to find employment in occupations less prestigious and more poorly paid than their previous employment. The largest flow of candidates to work is visible in the categories of clerical support workers, sales workers, service workers, and elementary workers. Approximately 20% of the respondents considered the possibility of starting their own business activity. The higher the education, the more often such an option was considered. In turn, nearly 3/4 of the respondents would be ready to learn a new occupation. Competencies 8 There was a very strong correlation between the assessment of competencies and the readiness to perform work related to it. In other words, the more highly somebody assessed their competencies, the more he or she wanted to perform work related to it.

9 The basic factor determining the self-assessment of competencies was, obviously, education: respondents with higher education as a rule assessed their competencies most highly; particularly they assessed their skills in the use of computers and the Internet, related to self-organisation of work, initiative, seeking and analysing information, organisation, and conducting work at the office higher than other groups, of all the groups, respondents with basic vocational education assessed their skills in operating, assembling, and repairing machines most highly people with lower education assessed their level of competencies lowest. Potential of the unemployed registered with employment offices In the self-assessment of the respondents, competencies are clearly differentiated by the type of work they seek. Competency profiles of candidates to specific types of posts correspond roughly to the requirements in these posts (occupations), which means that the unemployed seek work primarily in the occupations which require the competencies that they have: generally, candidates for professionals and managers assess their competencies most highly, while the lowest general assessments of competency levels are found among people seeking employment in elementary works the highest marks for interpersonal competencies are found among candidates for customer services clerks and business and management professionals, that is in the occupations that require contact with people computer competencies were assessed highest among candidates for IT staff office competencies reach the highest level in the self-assessment of candidates to clerical support workers operating, assembling, and repairing machines are the competencies that are recorded at the highest level among people seeking the following jobs: a broad range of IT staff, operators and assemblers, and other workers dealing with equipment. Generally, the self-assessment of the respondents concerning all the competencies falls with age, with the most significant differences being: The largest drop in the case of computer competencies, which is an evident effect of the generation gap and the IT revolution in the recent decades; the younger generations are far better versed with new technologies, as they grow among them and use them in their everyday life. Somewhat smaller decrease in the case of cognitive competencies, which is to be interpreted as a drop in the area of the so-called fluid intelligence, that is the ability to learn, speed of perception, and ability to draw conclusions. This result conforms to the knowledge of psychology, yet it must be remembered that it is only a part of cognitive abilities. Only some cognitive skills aggravate with age, which is caused by structural changes in the brain. Others, which are not, however, directly grasped in the study remain relatively stable or even improve. We must be aware of the limitations that a questionnaire study poses for such a complex range of problems, which results in the unavoidable simplifications and superficiality in the operationalisation of cognitive competencies. A decline in the assessment of physical competencies: this result corresponds to natural, biological changes in the organism that take place with ageing. Worth adding is the fact that men as a rule assessed their physical fitness more highly. The other competencies whose level grows with age, are technical competencies (operating, assembling, and repairing machines), a range of skills and knowledge in which the practical experience gained through years of work is extremely important. It must be noticed that, in the case of assessment of these competencies, there was a strong dominance of men (in all age and education categories). The regional variation in the self-assessment of competencies was relatively low, and difficult to analyse at the general level: it must be remembered that it may be the result of differences in other dimensions (e.g. education and/or the occupational structure of the unemployed) and also the circumstances in the local labour market. As far as language competencies are concerned, 57% of the respondents stated that they know a foreign language. Visible here is a clear difference in the knowledge of languages between people with lower education and those with secondary and higher, to the benefit of the latter. Most respondents knew the English language (41% of all the respondents), which was generally known among the people with higher education. Ranking below English were German (18%) and Russian (16%). 9

10 Situation of the unemployed in the study Work Experience Among the respondents above 35 years of age registered as unemployed, a vast majority (approximately 87%) were previously employed on the power of contracts of employment. Most respondents were earlier employed in services and sales (26%) as skilled workers (25%), unskilled workers (16%), and plant and machine operators, and assemblers (10%). A third of the people with lower secondary and lower education performed elementary occupations. Dominating among people with basic vocational education were craft and related trades workers. In the category of secondary, general secondary, and postsecondary education, services and sales workers predominated, and among the people with higher education every fourth was previously employed as a professional. Among the unemployed who previously worked on contract of employment, as many as 58% finished the previous job during the preceding two years. This was true in most cases about sales workers (20%), construction workers (8%), food processing, wood working, garment and other craft and related trades workers (7%), labourers in mining, construction, manufacturing and transportation (7%) and personal service workers (7%). Approximately 10% of the respondents worked during the previous 12 months on the power of freelance agreements or service contracts. Such a form of employment was more often used by people with higher education (15%) and also young people, who find it the beginning of their career, preceding finding contracted employment. Work abroad was not popular among the registered unemployed. Only 6% of them recently worked abroad. The most popular destinations were Germany, the United Kingdom, the Netherlands, and France. Additionally, every 10th respondent registered with employment office as an unemployed worked without a formal contract of employment during the last year. Closing, it is worth remarking that only 1.5% of the unemployed respondents worked as volunteers. Expected wages The fact that with the increase of education and the self-assessment of competencies aspirations concerning wages rise should not be surprising. The unemployed seeking work as professionals and boasting the highest average level of competencies had highest wages aspirations. Relatively high (higher than average) wages aspirations were also exhibited by people seeking work as plant and machine operators and assemblers. An interesting case related to expected wages is the very strong differentiation of pay aspirations by gender. Women have decidedly lower pay aspirations than men, irrespective of education, self-assessment of competencies, and type of work sought. On average, the level of pay aspirations of women was by PLN 360 lower than in the case of men. It must be added here that women themselves did not point to discrimination on the grounds of gender, while seeking employment. Answers that gender is the factor that makes finding jobs difficult were reported rarely, as only in the case of 6% of women Situation of the unemployed in the study General situation in the labour market and unemployment 10 A decided majority of the respondents (as many as 88%) can be classified (on the power of the declarations concerning main occupations), as people only unemployed that is not working, not minding home, not retired, and not learning. A quarter of the respondents were registered with employment offices for more than a year, with the average duration being 16 months. Seeking work longer than for 12 months were 26% of the respondents. The largest proportion of long-term unemployed (over 12 months) was recorded among the oldest age group, and was as high as 42%. Similarly, the higher the education, the shorter the average time of seeking work was. The lowest share of long-time unemployed was registered among people with higher education (17%), and the highest among people with lower education (around 30%). The largest number of people in long-term unemployment was recorded in the eastern regions, that is Podkarpackie (40% of all the registered unemployed), Warmińsko-Mazurskie (33%), Podlaskie (31%), Lubelskie, and also Kujawsko-Pomorskie (30% in either). In these regions, the average duration of seeking employment by the respondents ranged from 22 to 27 months. The average income in a household of a registered unemployed person amounted to PLN 712 (median = PLN 600). In the households were the highest revenue was generated by the respondent, the income per person amounted on average to PLN 665 (median = PLN 400).

11 Education of the respondents Among the respondents, 16% were people with lower education (i.e. lower secondary or primary), 28% had basic vocational education, 13% general secondary, 26% postsecondary or vocational, secondary, and 12% higher. Relatively best educated was the group of the unemployed under 35. Ways of seeking work Factors hindering finding a job Among the factors in situations that render starting a job difficult, external reasons, namely lack of appropriate job offers (61%) that were most frequently reported. Moreover, the respondents complained about the lack of contacts and acquaintances (49%), and also the shortages in their own assets and resources: insufficient experience (33%), lack of certificates and permits (29%) and insufficient level of education (28%). The lack of appropriate job offers was mentioned as an obstacle, mostly in Podlaskie (87% responses), Podkarpackie (85%) and Łódzkie (81%) regions, and was revealed definitely least often in Pomorskie (37%) and Śląskie (43%). Every tenth respondent registered with an employment office was currently not seeking work. In the age group that proportion amounted already to 17% (and among women in that age group to 24%). Among the people who were not looking for work, only 16% admitted that they do not have any reason to work for profit, while others quoted their actual situation on various factors that make starting work difficult as the reasons. The factor most often pointed to as one making it difficult to start work was the lack of job offers (36%), yet of high significance were also the need to take care of a child and the state of health Ways of seeking work The ways of seeking work that the respondents mentioned most often included the assistance of family and friends (71%), a direct contact with the employer (63%), and answering press (53%) and online (41%) ads. The respondents with higher education sought work in aa larger number of ways. Characteristically, nearly two thirds of the respondents did not participate in any job interview in the preceding month. The unemployed very rarely used the services of institutions of the labour market other than County Employment Offices. By the way, they had a relatively high opinion of their functioning, with around 60% of respondents being satisfied with it. The highest level of satisfaction with the operation of County Employment Offices was reported by respondents in Podlaskie administrative region (81% of rather satisfied and very satisfied responses), and lowest in Śląskie and Świętokrzyskie (slightly over 40%) The grey zone Of all registered unemployed, 10% worked during the preceding year without a formal contract of employment. Working in the black was most popular especially in Świętokrzyskie, Podkarpackie and Podlaskie (15%), Łódzkie (14%), and Śląskie (13%). The largest proportion in such work was performed by the elementary occupations (43%), skilled workers (28%), and service and sales workers (23%). Two out of three people who worked in the black did not sign any agreement because of the reluctance of the other party. Factors of legal and financial nature, including taxes and fees, formalities, and registration with employment office were mentioned far less often. What seems especially significant is the result concerning registration with the labour offices, which in this light does not seem to be a key obstacle in starting legal employment Training Only 22% of respondents tried to improve their level of knowledge and competencies during the previous year. Courses, training, private tuition, and postgraduate studies were the form of (additional) training selected by 16%, of which only every tenth took place during the preceding month, and 9% of all the respondents opted for self-education (informal learning). In the case of the unemployed seeking work, such a low ratio seem to be especially worrying. The reason behind the decision not to train during the year preceding the study that was quoted most often were simply the lack of need to improve qualifications, lack of time, and motivation. In other words, the unemployed respondents saw hardly any sense in training and improving their qualifications. 11

12 Methodology of the study Among the people resorting to formal ways of training (other than self-education) most popular were regular courses and training. The motivation reported most frequently was the desire to improve occupational skills. Only a third of the respondents plan to enter education and training in the following year. They were mostly the people who did it also in the preceding year. The highest eagerness to train was displayed by people with higher education, and with higher self-assessment of competencies. What may seem very worrying is the fact that more than every other respondent does not train and is does not intend to in the following year. Least motivated to training were the respondents who were in greatest need of certain improvement in the level of all competencies and skills, that is people with lower education and poorer competencies. Hardly inclined to participate in training were also people who did not seek employment or sought work as unskilled and skilled workers (more than 60% did not enter training and were not planning to do so in the nearest future). A group decidedly passive in lifelong learning were also the more mature people in the group, of whom nearly 90% did not resort to any form of training. The highest proportions of people in training in the past, and planning to train in the following year were present in Podlaskie region (with no fewer than 61% planning to train), Łódzkie, Podkarpackie, Wielkopolskie, and Śląskie. 3. Methodology of the study The study among people registered as unemployed with County Employment Offices (PUP) were conducted from 31st August to 29th November The sample covered 8122 registered unemployed from 160 PUPs from 16 administrative regions. The basic population studied were the people registered as unemployed with employment offices. The study was conducted according to two methodologies of sampling, that is the named sample and the entry poll also called the table sampling. Before describing both, we will now proceed to describing the original idea of the study and reasons for abandoning it Study sample selection It was assumed that the study would be conducted on 500 respondents in each of the 16 administrative regions (in PAPI or CAPI technique) which would result in over 8000 personal interviews. The respondents were to be drawn from the lists made available by the County Employment Offices selected earlier for the study. Yet at the initial stage of the study. It turned out that there were problems with acquiring named samples to conduct the study of the unemployed in some of the PUPs. More importantly, the Office of the Inspector General for Personal Data Protection (GIODO) published a statement that was unfavourable for continuing the study. In the light of the statement, no lists of registered unemployed could be expected to be provided by the PUPs, as the binding laws do not envisage such an option. For that reason, a decision was made early in October 2010 to switch to direct examinations in PUPs. As a result, the study on a named sample was conducted only in the case of 12 PUPs. The respondents in those were drawn from a list of the registered unemployed in the given PUPs. They were telephoned to make an appointment. If the person drawn could not be reached by telephone, a pollster was sent directly to conduct an interview under the given address or appoint a meeting at a time convenient for the respondent. This manner allowed reaching 682 respondents. The new, entrance poll ( table ) method assumed that drawing would be conducted in the individual PUPs. The interviews were conducted in person by the pollster (CATI or PAPI). The procedure of selection was as follows: chosen as participants were people registered in the given employment office as unemployed. Selected for the study was every first person who arrived in the office at the given quarter of an hour. If, for example, the study began at 8:00am, the first person to enter the PUP at 8:00am was selected for the study, the next one at 8:15am, the following one at 8:30am, 8:45am, 9:00am, etc. If in the minute beginning the new quarter, nobody entered the PUP, the first person to arrive at the office between 8:00am and 8:15am was selected, and so forth. If it was not possible to conduct the interview on the spot, the interviewer asked for contact details and arranged an interview at a different time. The priority was to register the people who were the first in the given quarter hour. This form of entrance poll method was used in 149 PUPs, and gather the data of 7440 respondents. 12

13 Conducted altogether during the study were 8122 interviews. Among the 160 PUPs, where the study took place, the study was conducted on a named sample in 11, and in 148 on a table one (Table 1). In one office, the interviews were conducted in both manners. Study sample selection Table 1 The manner of conducting the study in individual PUPs Sample Number of PUPs % Named Entry poll Named and entry pool Total As has been mentioned before, 8% of the interviews were conducted from the named sample, while 92% were performed according to the entry poll (table) method. The largest proportion of interviews conducted on the named sample were conducted in the following regions: Wielkopolskie 119 (17% of all conducted in this way), Zachodniopomorskie 97 (14%), Dolnośląskie 76 (11%), and Kujawsko-Pomorskie 65 (10%). No interview based on the named sample was conducted in the regions: Lubuskie, Mazowieckie, Opolskie, Podlaskie and Pomorskie. Most unemployed from the named sample (75%) were visited once. In the case of 12% people visits were paid twice. The group of people visited three times was of similar size (13%). Altogether, three visits were enough to cover 99% of all the people covered by the named sample, independent of the success of the visit. In individual cases, also fourth and fifth visits where arranged. As concerns successful interviews, most of them were conducted during the first visit (87%), and with the subsequent visits, the number of interviews conducted decreased. Practically, all the interviews took place during the first three visits, while 97% of all the interviews required only two attempts. The rate of return on the named sample compared to the total sample was 32%, with 11% of all the cases when the person was absent throughout the duration of the study, and nearly 10% of cases when the person had moved away for a period exceeding three months. If these cases were subtracted from the base for calculation of the response rate, it would amount to 40%. Additionally, if the cases of inability to contact anyone at the given address suggesting at least for some of the respondents absence from the place of residence during the duration of the study, were subtracted, the rate would amount to 47%. In the case of successful entry poll interviews, nearly 90%, i.e. 6584, required a single contact. Another 6% required two contacts, and a further 5% three or even four. Compared to the named sample, the percentage of interviews conducted at the first attempt is very similar (Table 2). Table 2 Effectiveness of individual visits in the entry poll ( table ) method Number of contacts Count % Cumulative % Total

14 Study sample selection The first interviews conducted in the entry poll method took place on 4th October. In less than two months of work, 7440 interviews were conducted in this manner, which amounts to the efficiency of over 140 interviews a day. Practically, after a month since switching to the table method, nearly a half of interviews conducted in this way were completed. After another six days, the number of interviews conducted in this manner reached 75% of the total. According to the assumptions, at least 500 interviews (jointly in the named and table methods) were conducted in each voivodeship (administrative region). The minimum was achieved in nine out of sixteen regions, and the largest numbers of interviews were conducted in Zachodniopomorskie and Dolnośląskie. Table 3 The number of interviews conducted by region (voivodeship) Administrative region (voivodeship) Total Number of interviews conducted % Dolnośląskie Kujawsko-pomorskie Lubelskie Lubuskie Łódzkie Małopolskie Mazowieckie Opolskie Podkarpackie Podlaskie Pomorskie Śląskie Świętokrzyskie Warmińsko-mazurskie Wielkopolskie Zachodniopomorskie Total Closing, attention must be paid to the possibility of generalising the results, and the definition of the population studied. As GIODO interpretation was unfavourable for the study and required changing the methodology while the study was in progress, certain complications arose. Initially, the project was aimed at studying the entire population of the registered unemployed in Poland. The switch to the entry poll method, conducted in PUPs, resulted in the following definition of the studied population (to which the results can be generalised): people registered as unemployed, visiting County Employment Offices. This modification results in the danger of a slight distortion of the data by excluding the people registered as unemployed, but hardly ever visiting the PUPs from the scope of the study. The comparison between the final results from the selection according to the entry poll method and the named method, drawing by the PESEL number in the study of the population, and the data from the Central Statistical Office makes it possible to suspect that the distortion is low, and influences only very insignificantly the assessment of the situation of the registered unemployed in Poland. Such conclusions were the grounds for creating weights for the observations based on the data concerning the registered unemployed in Poland. The results presented in the report are based on weighted data, with the main indicator being the proportion of the unemployed from the individual regions. The weighted data may be interpreted to say most precisely as representative of the population of the registered unemployed in Poland, visiting the PUPs during the three months while the study was conducted. The distortion of the results in reference to the entire population of the registered unemployed should be low.

15 The presented report is based on the results weighted for the structure of the registered unemployed in Poland. Independent analyses also propose using weighted data that allow a better estimation of the results for the population studied. Detailed information concerning the methodology of studying the unemployed in the BKL Study project is contained in the methodology report for the first round of the study, and on the website of the project. Categorisation of occupations 3.2. Categorisation of occupations In the case of questions concerning occupations, the respondent was asked to describe: the work performed, the name of the occupation or job what is done on the job, what the main duties are what is produced, what services are provided, or what the employer does. Using the recorded answer, the occupation was defined in line with the International Standard of Classification of Occupations, ISCO-08 developed by the International Labour Organisation. The occupation was coded at the potentially highest level of detail, yet mostly the one- and two-digit categories were used in the analyses. The first is the major group (ISCO-1) divided into nine most general occupational categories, and the second is the sub-major group (ISCO-2), with division into 40 categories Measurement of competencies Having considered numerous available classifications and ways of measuring competencies, a decision was made to follow one that accounts for 11 superior categories, of which some were divided into smaller units. 1 In the questions about competences, the aspect related to the level of skill/disposition as such, and the aspect related to the level of motivation (the eagerness to perform work that requires the given skill/disposition) were separated. Due to the conditions of the survey study, the test approach was renounced for the sake of persuading the respondents to an honest self-assessment. An attempt was made to provide a strong context linking the questions to work and career in the introduction to the competency block in the questionnaire: Various types of work require various skills and abilities. It is often so that in one or two areas our potential is fairly high, while in others it is much lower. Moreover, everyone must have a certain idea about what work he or she would like to perform. Sometimes we can do something very well, but we do not want to be engaged in a job that is related to it. On the other hand, we may want to perform certain works very much, yet we do not have sufficient skills yet. Now I am going to read to you a list of various skills. Please assess the level of your skills in their respect on a five-point scale, where 1 denotes low level, 2 basic, 3 medium, 4 high, and 5 very high. Then I will ask you whether you would like to be involved in work that requires such skill and instruct you to answer on a five-point scale, where 1 means Definitely not, 2 Rather not, 3 neither yes nor no, 4 Rather yes, and 5 Definitely yes. 1 In the employer study, which required condensing the questionnaire, only of the higher-level categories were applied, for which reason to preserve comparability, the study of population included all the superior categories as separate items (which in some cases may justifiably be perceived as excessive when compared to he individual categories). 15

16 Comments on the interpretation of the results Main competencies: COG 01 Finding information and drawing conclusions TEC 02 Operating, assembling, and repairing machines MAT 03 Performing calculations COM 04 Working with computers and using the Internet ART 05 Artistic and creative skills PHY 06 Physical fitness SLF 07 Self-organising, initiative, punctuality PER 08 Contacts with other people OFF 09 Organisation, and conducting work at the office MNG 10 Managerial skills and organisation of work AVL 11 Availability In this report, wherever required by limitations of space, acronyms are used for the competencies listed above Comments on the interpretation of the results Acquisition of data at the potentially finest level of detail was assumed as an overarching principle for the entire Study of Human Capital in Poland project, including the study of the unemployed. Following this principle, instead of one general question about the occupation performed in the past by the respondent, attempts were made to disclose all the forms of occupational activity of the respondent to acquire the full picture of his or her experience in the labour market. Similarly, instead of a single general question about the level of education, attempts were made to disclose the entire educational path of the respondent, including the occupations learnt at the upper secondary level. This allowed the development of a database with plenty of information, which allows multiple analysis of behaviour, beliefs, and competency resources of various social and occupational groups. Of necessity, this report must boil down to very general analyses, in which nuances are lost, and a certain averaged image of reality emerges. We would like to repeat here once again a general remark that at the same time is a caveat that concerns interpretation of the results quoted in the report. In a study that covers such a varied population, and at the same time accounting for so many variables of various nature, it is easy to obtain excessive simplifications and unjustified generalisations. The reader, therefore, should be aware that every statistic category discussed (whether the self-employed, the southern region, technicians and associate professionals to quote just a few) covers strongly diverse sets of people, and the results presented provide only in averaged picture of the reality. Every analysis conducted at such a level of generality is at risk of emphasising apparent correlations, which disappear when coming down to a lower level of aggregation. We are convinced that the vast value of the Study of Human Capital in Poland project entails the opportunity of running detailed analyses concerning specific research and decision-making problems on the data collections built in the project. We encourage to do this especially those readers who are not satisfied with a compromise between the faithfulness to detail and generality of conclusions, to which we were sentenced while presenting the main results of the study. In the tables presented further, the percentages may not add up to 100% due to the rounding of numbers, while the individual counts may not add up to the totals due to the rounding of the weighted numbers to integers. To help the analysis, many tables use colour coding, which follows the topographic approach that makes reference to the way maps are coloured: relatively low values are expressed by the colour green, average yellow, and relatively high red. It is to be emphasised that marked in this way are the relative values of individual indices, that is ones that show the position of a given item against the totality. Colouring of the tables: 16 low average high relative values of the given index