Automobiles & Parts. PIAGGIO S.p.A.
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1 Automobiles & Parts PIAGGIO S.p.A. Politecnico Student Research Global Investment Research Challenge 2011
2 Company Overview Wht invest in Piaggio Financial Valuation Risk Data and Charts
3 Company Overview Largest Wide Premiumisation brand European portfolio strategy producer of 2w and LCVs by revenues Young Company Overview Wht invest in Piaggio Financial Valuation Risk Data and Charts
4 Company Overview Internationalization Geographical Volumes growth Breakdown strategy and our rating 1.5B of Sales expected for Moderate Production decrease Facilities of revenues Increase Distribution both in Network Ebitda margin and Ebitda Joint Venture Market Price Target Price BUY ACCUMULATE Company Overview Wht invest in Piaggio Financial Valuation Risk Data and Charts
5 Company Overview Wht invest in Piaggio Financial Valuation Risk Data and Charts
6 Why invest in Piaggio 1. Launch of new products in India 2. Expansion in South-Eastern Asia 3. Efficiency gains in Europe Company Overview Wht invest in Piaggio Financial Valuation Risk Data and Charts
7 Why invest in Piaggio: New products in India 3w 4w Market volumes : 1M u (2010) Market growth: 8% (2011E) Launch of Vespa: 2012E Piaggio volumes: 220,000 75,000 u (2013E) (2010) Piaggio growth: 13.5% (2011E) Company Overview Wht invest in Piaggio Financial Valuation Risk Data and Charts
8 Why invest in Piaggio: Expansion in Asia Vietnam Indonesia Malaysia Thailand Potential Market: 3M vehicles Potential Market: 11M vehicles Taiwan Company Overview Wht invest in Piaggio Financial Valuation Risk Data and Charts
9 Why invest in Piaggio: Consolidation in Europe European EBITDA Margin +110bps by Improvement of global sourcing position - Production plants rationalisation - Synergies in the distribution network Company Overview Wht invest in Piaggio Financial Valuation Risk Data and Charts
10 Company Overview Wht invest in Piaggio Financial Valuation Risk Data and Charts
11 Financial 8.1% Balance Revenue Sheet CAGR % OCF CAGR Income Statement 1550M 1680M 1820M 1955M + 170bps OCF EBITDA Cash&other margin Capex 165M NWC 140M 130M NFP 100M Div. 18.9% From EMs 2.6% From DMs NFP 345M 335M 320M 300M 12.5% EBITDA CAGR Lower D&A and Financial Charges CAGR Ability to meet short and long term obligations Deleveraging % 2010 ~ 520M EPS CAGR Higher than Revenue CAGR Source: Politecnico Estimates 2010 E 2011 E 2012 E 2013 E 2010 E 2011 E 2012 E 2013 E Debt 510M 475M 450M 400M Equity 446M 478M 515M 565M ~ 310M ~ 60M 207M 233M 262M 295M ~ 45M Cash Flow Statement ~ 105M 145M 155M 175M 192M Company Overview Wht invest in Piaggio Financial Valuation Risk Data and Charts
12 Company Overview Wht invest in Piaggio Financial Valuation Risk Data and Charts
13 Valuation: Discounted Cash Flow Sum-of-the-part approach Two-Stage model Analytical Period + Perpetuity Three-Stage model Analytical Period + Convergence Stage + Perpetuity Source: Politecnico Estimates Company Overview Wht invest in Piaggio Financial Valuation Risk Data and Charts
14 Valuation: Discounted Cash Flow TP DCF EU + US India Vietnam Revenues 2010E 1080M M 103M EBITDA margin 2010E 10% 20.8% 22.1% Tax Rate FCFF 2010E % 22M % 13M 7.5% 3.6M FCFF CAGR % 26.2% % WACC 7.63% 9.31% 10.72% Source: Politecnico Estimates Company Overview Wht invest in Piaggio Financial Valuation Risk Data and Charts
15 Valuation: Multiple Piaggio s Indian and Vietnamese businesses are comparable to its Indian peers 35% Using the median EV/EBITDA multiple 30% Sales growth rate ( E) Average EBITDA% (2010E-11E) 25% 20% 15% Median Hero Mahindra Bajaj Tata 2011 E 9.67 x x 8.89 x x 5.55 x 10% 5% 0% Piaggio-Asia Hero Honda Mahindra & Mahindra EV Piaggio Asia 1,014.5 M Bajaj Auto Tata Motors 11.7% discount DCF EV Piaggio-Asia Hero Honda Mahindra & 895.6M Mahindra Bajaj Auto Tata Motors Company Overview Initiation Wht invest Coverage in Piaggio Why Invest Financial in Piaggio Financial Valuation Valuation Risk Risk Data and Charts
16 Valuation: Multiple As regards the whole Piaggio Group (EV/EBITDA multiple): 30% 20% 10% 0% EMs multiple Sales growth rate ( ) - for the Asian Business: 9.7 x 3.8 x 30% 20% 10% 0% DMs multiple Average EBITDA % ( ) - for the non-asian Business: 100% 67% 33% 0% Market exposure to Ems 100% 67% 33% Target Price: % Business exposure to 2w market to LCVs market Company Overview Wht invest in Piaggio Financial Valuation Risk Data and Charts
17 Valuation: Target Price DCF : % weight Multiple : % weight Year-end Target Price: (upside > 15%) 2.75 Company Overview Wht invest in Piaggio Financial Valuation Risk Data and Charts
18 Company Overview Wht invest in Piaggio Financial Valuation Risk Data and Charts
19 Risk analysis: Risks matrix from Asia Likelihood Unsuccessful product launches Probable Possible Unlikely Rare Istable Vietnam labour market Supply Chain risk Strikes Tighter regulations Credit risk Stronger competition Exchange rate risk Increase in interest rates Intellectual Property Liquidity risk Machinary failure Stronger competition Exchange rate risk GDP growth rates Increase in energy, raw materials and components costs De-premiumisation Unsuccessful product launches Vehicles defects Source: Politecnico Estimates Marginal Minor Intermediate Major Impact Company Overview Wht invest in Piaggio Financial Valuation Risk Data and Charts
20 Risk analysis: Risks matrix from Asia Unsuccessful product launches Stronger competition Exchange rate risk Source: Source: Politecnico Pacific Exchange Estimates Rate Service Company Overview Wht invest in Piaggio Financial Valuation Risk Data and Charts
21 Risk analysis: Risk Global matrix risks Likelihood Probable GDP growth rates Possible Unlikely Istable Vietnam labour market Supply Chain risk Increase in energy, raw Strikes materials and components costs Tighter regulations Credit risk Increase in interest rates Intellectual Property Liquidity risk Stronger competition Exchange rate risk GDP growth rates Increase in energy, raw materials and components costs De-premiumisation Unsuccessful product launches Rare Machinary failure Vehicles defects Source: Politecnico Estimates Marginal Minor Intermediate Major Impact Company Overview Wht invest in Piaggio Financial Valuation Risk Data and Charts
22 Risk analysis: Risk Global matrix risks GDP growth rates 8 Real GDP growth rates 6 Increase in energy, raw materials and components costs World Major advanced economies (G7) ASEAN-5 Source: Company data Source: International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook Database Company Overview Wht invest in Piaggio Financial Valuation Risk Data and Charts
23 Risk analysis: Montecarlo Simulation P=80% Source: Politecnico Estimates Price Confidence Interval: Company Overview Wht invest in Piaggio Financial Valuation Risk Data and Charts
24 Risk analysis: Montecarlo Simulation Numbers of iterations Price of ASEAN operations Price of European operations Price of Indian operations Source: Politecnico Estimates 80% of risk comes from Asia Company Overview Wht invest in Piaggio Financial Valuation Risk Data and Charts
25 Questions Questions Company Overview Wht invest in Piaggio Financial Valuation Risk Data and Charts
26 Automobiles & Parts PIAGGIO S.p.A. Politecnico Student Research ICFAS Investment Research Challenge 2011
27 Data and Charts Balance Sheet Debt Structure Comparable Companies Commodities Outlook Income Statement Ratios EMs and DMs Multiples SWOT analysis Cash Flow Statement India WACC Montecarlo Simulation Product Launches Cash Flow Statement Europe Adj. Tax Rates Macroeconomic Outlook Corporate Governance Cash Flow Statement South Eastern Asia Terminal Value Interest Rates Curve Company Overview Wht invest in Piaggio Financial Valuation Risk Data and Charts
28 Macroeconomic Outlook India Vietnam Indonesia Thailand Malaysia Summary Data and Charts
29 Balance Sheet E 2011 E 2012 E 2013 E FIXED ASSETS 899, , , , , ,855 Intangible assets 648, , , , , ,370 Tangible assets 250, , , , , ,903 Financial assets NET WORKING CAPITAL (3,726) 17,212 30,553 52,103 72,844 92,798 Current trade receivables 90, , , , , ,325 Other current receivables 21,380 24,198 20,376 23,515 25,490 27,388 Other non-current receivables 12,587 12,914 13,606 15,117 17,297 20,541 Inventories 257, , , , , ,654 Trade payables (362,224) (345,987) (385,439) (418,232) (453,359) (487,120) Short term Tax receivables 27,772 23,979 38,348 30,033 30,033 30,033 Long term Tax receivables 8,166 4,990 6,496 6,551 6,551 6,551 Deferred tax assets 36,227 46,462 45,107 42,599 42,599 42,599 Short term Tax payables (19,065) (18,952) (36,167) (24,728) (24,728) (24,728) Long term Tax payables (166) Other short term payables (70,677) (79,567) (75,075) (83,982) (91,036) (97,815) Other long term payables (5,965) (6,485) (5,961) (6,551) (7,101) (7,630) PROVISIONS (137,531) (133,685) (131,100) (130,106) (131,769) (129,740) NET CAPITAL EMPLOYED 757, , , , , ,913 NET FINANCIAL POSITION 359, , , , , ,217 Short term debt 140, , , , ,000 90,000 Long term debt 264, , , , , ,000 Other liquid assets 5,787 4,127 25,334 15,000 15,000 10,000 Cash 39, , , , ,627 92,783 TOTAL SHAREHOLDER S EQUITY 398, , , , , ,696 SOURCES OF FUNDS 757, , , , , ,913 Source: Company Data, Politecnico Estimates Data and Charts
30 Income Statement E 2011 E 2012 E 2013 E Net Sales 1,570,060 1,486,882 1,550,274 1,679,646 1,820,718 1,956,304 Reported Growth -7.2% -5.3% 4.3% 8.3% 8.4% 7.4% Business Units Two Wheeler Vehicles 1,180,666 1,065,417 1,057,177 1,121,380 1,217,681 1,303,487 Reported Growth -8.8% -9.8% -0.8% 6.1% 8.6% 7.0% Commercial Vehicles 389, , , , , ,817 Reported Growth 2.4% 8.2% 17.0% 13.2% 8.0% 8.3% Geographical Area Europe and America 1,280,932 1,116,191 1,080,672 1,113,972 1,140,716 1,166,090 Reported Growth -8.6% -12.9% -3.2% 3.1% 2.4% 2.2% India 243, , , , , ,840 Reported Growth 2.5% 17.5% 27.9% 19.9% 19.6% 14.4% ASEAN 45,156 83, , , , ,000 Reported Growth -13.2% 85.9% 22.4% 22.4% 22.4% 22.1% Other operating income 133, , , , , ,679 Cost for materials (936,603) (871,653) (910,011) (992,671) (1,081,506) (1,167,913) Cost for services (292,920) (272,065) (272,848) (290,579) (307,701) (322,790) Employee costs (250,967) (242,916) (257,345) (262,025) (269,466) (275,839) Other operating costs (33,993) (35,387) (34,106) (36,952) (40,056) (43,039) EBITDA 189, , , , , ,402 EBITDA margin 12.04% 13.50% 13.40% 13.90% 14.40% 15.10% D&A 94,540 96,378 94, , , ,266 % Capex 91.85% % 97.00% 97.00% 97.00% 97.00% EBIT 94, , , , , ,135 EBIT margin 6.02% 7.02% 7.29% 7.79% 8.68% 9.67% Financial charges (41,288) (33,275) (27,754) (28,423) (32,341) (31,740) % Tot Financial Liabilities 10.18% 5.98% 6.00% 6.20% 6.50% 6.90% Other Financials 6,379 4, Earnings before tax 59,633 74,093 89, , , ,395 Taxation for the period 16,302 26,674 41,410 46,598 55,316 68,970 Actual tax rate (%) 27.34% 36.00% 46.40% 44.00% 43.00% 43.00% Consolidated net income 43,331 47,419 47,836 59,306 73,326 91,425 Profit margin 2.76% 3.19% 3.09% 3.53% 4.03% 4.67% Minority Shareholders 330 1, Earnings per share ( ) Avg. number of Ordinary Shares 396, , , , , ,000 Dividend per share ( ) Source: Earnings paid Company as dividends data, Politecnico Estimates 22,120 25,795 25,000 28,000 35,000 43,000 Payout Ratio 51% 56% 52% 47% 48% 47% Data and Charts
31 Cash Flow Statement India INDIA 2011 E 2012 E 2013 E 2014 E 2015 E LCV volumes (units) 250, , , , ,000 LCV ARPU ( ) 1,760 1,857 1,960 2,038 2,103 2w volumes (units) 50,000 75,000 95, ,000 2w ARPU ( ) Sales from India 439, , , , ,122 % tot sales 26.19% 28.89% 30.76% 32.19% 33.31% % growth 19.92% 19.59% 14.40% 11.50% 9.69% EBITDA from India 89, , , , ,280 EBITDA margin India 20.40% 20.40% 20.30% 20.00% 19.60% D&A India 24,867 25,244 25,745 26,454 27,266 % Capex India 94.00% 94.00% 94.00% 94.00% 94.00% EBIT from India 64,871 82,075 96, , ,013 EBIT margin India 14.75% 15.60% 16.02% 16.06% 15.90% Tax Rate India 42.00% 42.00% 42.00% 42.00% 42.00% Op. Tax India 27,246 34,471 40,500 45,259 49,146 Adj. Op. Tax India 34,082 42,421 50,925 54,526 59,462 Adj. Tax Rate India 52.54% 51.69% 52.81% 50.60% 50.82% D&A India 24,867 25,244 25,745 26,454 27,266 Change in NWC India (12,172) (12,670) (11,150) (10,914) (9,855) Cash Flow From Indian Operations 43,484 52,228 60,098 68,774 74,963 Capex India 26,454 26,856 27,388 28,143 29,007 % Capex 25.00% 25.00% 25.00% 25.00% 25.00% FCFF India 17,030 25,372 32,710 40,631 45,956 % growth 48.99% 28.92% 24.22% 13.11% Source: Politecnico Estimates Data and Charts
32 Cash Flow Statement Europe and US EUROPE and US 2011 E 2012 E 2013 E 2014 E 2015 E 2W volumes (units) 362, , , , ,000 2W ARPU ( ) 2,750 2,814 2,878 2,944 3,012 LCV volumes (units) 14,289 13,632 13,004 12,406 11,836 LCV ARPU ( ) 8,284 8,140 7,999 7,859 7,723 Sales from Europe and US 1,113,972 1,140,716 1,166,090 1,189,896 1,211,930 % tot sales 66.32% 62.65% 59.61% 57.08% 54.84% % growth 3.08% 2.40% 2.22% 2.04% 1.85% EBITDA from Europe and US 115, , , , ,524 EBITDA margin Europe and US 10.40% 10.60% 11.10% 11.10% 11.10% D&A Europe and US 64,126 65,098 66,389 68,218 70,312 % Capex Europe and US % % % % % EBIT from Europe and US 51,728 55,818 63,047 63,860 64,212 EBIT margin Europe and US 4.64% 4.89% 5.41% 5.37% 5.30% Tax Rate Europe and US 30.00% 30.00% 30.00% 30.00% 30.00% Op. Tax Europe and US 15,518 16,745 18,914 19,158 19,264 Adj. Op. Tax Europe and US 20,969 22,152 25,730 24,650 24,925 Adj. Tax Rate Europe and US 40.54% 39.69% 40.81% 38.60% 38.82% D&A Europe and US 64,126 65,098 66,389 68,218 70,312 Change in NWC Europe and US (5,547) (3,932) (3,734) (3,753) (3,338) Cash Flow From EU Operations 89,337 94,832 99, , ,262 Capex Europe 63,491 64,453 65,732 67,543 69,616 % Capex 60.00% 60.00% 60.00% 60.00% 60.00% FCFF Europe 25,846 30,379 34,240 36,133 36,645 % growth 17.54% 12.71% 5.53% 1.42% Source: Politecnico Estimates Data and Charts
33 Cash Flow Statement ASEAN ASEAN 2011 E 2012 E 2013 E 2014 E 2015 E 2W volumes (units) 62,543 81, , , ,662 2W ARPU ( ) 2,011 1,890 1,777 1,688 1,621 Sales from ASEAN 125, , , , ,990 % tot sales 7.49% 8.45% 9.63% 10.73% 11.85% % growth 22.38% 22.38% 22.38% 18.75% 17.12% EBITDA from ASEAN 27,420 33,248 40,312 46,976 54,232 EBITDA margin ASEAN 21.80% 21.60% 21.40% 21.00% 20.70% D&A ASEAN 13,492 13,696 14,790 15,197 15,664 % Capex ASEAN 85.00% 85.00% 90.00% 90.00% 90.00% EBIT from ASEAN 13,928 19,552 25,522 31,779 38,568 EBIT margin ASEAN 11.07% 12.70% 13.55% 14.21% 14.72% Tax Rate ASEAN 7.50% 7.50% 7.50% 7.50% 7.50% Op. Tax ASEAN 1,045 1,466 1,914 2,383 2,893 Adj. Op. Tax ASEAN 2,512 3,360 4,673 5,116 6,293 Adj. Tax Rate ASEAN 18.04% 17.19% 18.31% 16.10% 16.32% D&A ASEAN 13,492 13,696 14,790 15,197 15,664 Change in NWC ASEAN (2,416) (2,776) (3,618) (4,178) (4,416) Cash Flow From ASEAN Operations 22,492 27,112 32,021 37,681 43,523 Capex ASEAN 15,873 16,113 16,433 16,886 17,404 % Capex 15.00% 15.00% 15.00% 15.00% 15.00% FCFF ASEAN 6,619 10,999 15,588 20,796 26,119 % growth 66.17% 41.72% 33.41% 25.60% Source: Politecnico Estimates Data and Charts
34 Ratios Key Financial Ratios E 2011E 2012E E 2011E 2012E Profitability ratios EBITDA margin 13.50% 13.40% 13.90% 14.40% ROI 6.67% 7.11% 8.09% 9.44% EBIT margin 7.02% 7.29% 7.79% 8.68% ROE 11.19% 10.71% 12.41% 14.20% Gearing ratios Debt ratios Total Debt to Equity 1.31x 1.14x 0.99x 0.87x Interest coverage ratio 3.14x 4.07x 4.60x 4.88x Net Debt to Equity 0.83x 0.77x 0.70x 0.62x Net Debt / EBITDA 1.70x 1.61x 1.37x 1.13x Cash flow ratios Capex OCF / Sales 9.19% 9.43% 9.25% 9.57% Capex / Sales 6.3% 6.3% 6.3% 5.9% OCF / Earnings 2.88x 3.06x 2.62x 2.38x D&A / Capex % 97% 97% 97% Market ratios Cost structure EPS Labor Cost / Sales 16.34% 16.60% 15.60% 14.80% DPS Matetrials Cost / Sales 58.62% 58.70% 59.10% 59.40% Source: Company data, Politecnico Estimates Data and Charts
35 Terminal Value Industry Cash flow growth capability of the company High Medium Low Strongly developing 3-5% 2-3% 0-1% Moderately developing % 1-2% 0% Stable 0-1% 0% 0% Decadent 0% 0% 0% Source: Guatri (1998) Long term growth rate = long term population growth + long term productivity growth Data and Charts
36 WACC Source: Politecnico Estimates Data and Charts
37 Adjusted Tax Rates Source: Politecnico Estimates Data and Charts
38 Comparable Companies -5% 5% 15% 25% 35% 45% 55% 65% Peugeot Suzuki Honda Ktm Harley Yamaha Tata Bajaj Mahindra Hero Avg. Profit% vs. Piaggio Avg. Sales Growth vs. Piaggio Data and Charts
39 EMs and DMs Multiples. EV/EBITDA multiple for the whole Company: Basic Assumptions: EBITDA margin is 50% higher in EMs Markets exposure is equal to the percentage of Sales in EMs EMs multiple: Equal to the Indian peers multiple = 9.7 x DMs multiple: Mkt_Multiple = (EBITDA_DMs x Multiple_DMs) + (EBITDA_EMs x Multiple_EMs) known estimated 3.8 x estimated 9.7 x Data and Charts
40 Montecarlo Simulation Source: Politecnico Estimates Data and Charts
41 SWOT Data and Charts
42 Product Launches Data and Charts
43 Corporate Governance Data and Charts
44 Debt Structure Maturity Data and Charts
45 Commodities Outlook Data and Charts
46 Interest rates Euro Area Source: Company Data, Politecnico Estimates Data and Charts
47 India Macroeconomic data Real GDP growth (%) GDP per capita (US $) 1, , , , , Inflation CPI (%) Unemployment rate (%) Population (Millions) 1, , , , , Industry data w total sales 7,437,619 9,371,231 10,148,600 10,990,000 13,959,500 3w total sales 349, , , , ,500 4w LCVs total sales 384, , , , ,800 Macroeconomic Outlook
48 Vietnam Macroeconomic data Real GDP growth (%) GDP per capita (US $) 1, , , , , Inflation CPI (%) Unemployment rate (%) Population (Millions) Macroeconomic Outlook
49 Indonesia Macroeconomic data Real GDP growth (%) GDP per capita (US $) 2, , , , , Inflation CPI (%) Unemployment rate (%) Population (Millions) Macroeconomic Outlook
50 Malaysia Macroeconomic data Real GDP growth (%) GDP per capita (US $) 6, , , , , Inflation CPI (%) Unemployment rate (%) Population (Millions) Macroeconomic Outlook
51 Thailand Macroeconomic data Real GDP growth (%) GDP per capita (US $) 3, , , , , Inflation CPI (%) Unemployment rate (%) Population (Millions) Macroeconomic Outlook
52 Summary macroeconomic data GDP per capita (US $) Population (Millions, 2010) 10, , , , India Indonesia Malaysia , Thailand 0.00 India Indonesia Malaysia Thailand Vietnam Vietnam 1, Inflation, CPI (%) India Indonesia Malaysia Thailand Vietnam Population CAGR India 1.33% Indonesia 1.30% Malaysia 1.70% Thailand 1.00% Vietnam 1.20% Macroeconomic Outlook
53 Automobiles & Parts PIAGGIO S.p.A. Politecnico Student Research ICFAS Investment Research Challenge 2011
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