Measuring Employability A First Empirical Approach

Transcription

1 Measuring Employability A First Empirical Approach Dr. Helmut Apel ISG - Institut für Sozialforschung und Gesellschaftspolitik apel@isg-institut.de

2 Overview 1. Motivation and Background 2. Theoretical and Conceptual Framework 3. Empirical Application 4. Results 5. Conclusions and Outlook Helmut Apel Evaluation Conference Nürnberg,

3 1. Motivation and Background Institutional background: Evaluation of reformed means-tested welfare system Basic security benefits for job-seekers (SGB II, Hartz IV reform) Specifically: Evaluation of the temporary experiment concerning the the two models of implementation, i.e. ARGE: Cooperation of municipalities and local employment agencies (in 355 regions) zkt: Municipalities alone (in 69 municipalities) Federal Ministry of Labour and Social Affairs (BMAS) has established a research network comprising 4 research fields: Field 1: Data collection and descriptive analyses (IAT, ZEW) Field 2: Implementation and governance analyses (ISR, infas, WZB) Field 3: Micro-econometric impact analyses (ZEW, IAQ, TNS Emnid) Field 4: Macro-economic analyses (ifo, IAW) Helmut Apel Evaluation Conference Nürnberg,

4 1. Motivation and Background Since SGB II mainly aims at combating long-time unemployment preservation and improvement of employability is an important objective of the new welfare system. Hence, the administrative contest between ARGE and zkt focuses on two outcomes: Job placement (primary objective) Progress in employability (secondary objective) In research network: Field 3 is supposed to develop an empirical concept for measuring employability progress. ISG as coordinator of the research network has together with Field 3 initialised a pilot study for this purpose. Helmut Apel Evaluation Conference Nürnberg,

5 1. Motivation and Background Specific requirements and restrictions Applicable in telephone interviews (CATI) Quantitative information Data parsimonious Almost no examples in existing literature Particularly the application by CATIs implies important limitations for the collected information Helmut Apel Evaluation Conference Nürnberg,

6 2. Theoretical and Conceptual Framework Primary theoretical contributions Bernard Gazier (1999): Employability. Concepts and Policies. Susanne Blancke, Christian Roth, Josef Schmidt (2000): Employability als Herausforderung für den Arbeitsmarkt. Axel Deeke, Thomas Kruppe (2003): Beschäftigungsfähigkeit als Evaluationsmaßstab? Existing empirical concepts Fachkonzept Beschäftigungsorientiertes Fallmanagement SGB II (job-oriented case management concept of Federal Employment Agency) Arbeitshilfen Eingliederungsvereinbarungen und Profiling (Aktuelles Nr. 40, HE/GA) (manual and guidelines for Integration Contracts ) Evaluation concepts from municipalities labour market projects (Prof. Trube, Universitiy of Siegen) Helmut Apel Evaluation Conference Nürnberg,

7 2. Theoretical and Conceptual Framework Review of theoretical literature and existing empirical concepts can be summarized into six dimensions of employability which are feasible for a CATI-survey: I. Activities level Job-seeking activities Further education activities II. Motivation level Intrinsic motivation Extrinsic motivation III. Willingness for concessions with respect to: Working conditions (e.g. status, mobility / flexibility requirements) Income Helmut Apel Evaluation Conference Nürnberg,

8 2. Theoretical and Conceptual Framework IV. Assessment of skills and capabilities Job-related self-image (... got good qualification / experience ) Self-assessment soft skills (e.g. reliability, team-orientated) Self-assessment basic skills (reading, writing, internet) V. Social context Social network (meeting friends, knowing to be needed) Social support (being supported by family / friends) Milieu / peers (many unemployed friends / friends successful in job) Private situation (family conflicts, ties and obligations) VI. Psychological and somatic health Physical conditions / troubles Emotional problems Helmut Apel Evaluation Conference Nürnberg,

9 Data base 3. Empirical Application Survey data 4,000 CATI-interviews (2,000 SGB II / 2,000 SGB III) Full range of unemployment duration In small number of selected ARGE-regions Controlled regional variation: east-west; urban-rural Age restriction: years Interview period September 22 October 19, 2006 Survey information is matched with data from Federal Employment Agency Labour market status five month after interview: Employed (regular employment or apprenticeship) Not employed (otherwise) Helmut Apel Evaluation Conference Nürnberg,

10 3. Empirical Application 1 st Step: Principal components analysis (PCA) Multivariate statistical method to reduce information redundancies and to identify empirically independent dimensions PCA retrieves important factors and their marking variables Aim: Identify a compact set of survey items which capture relevant components / dimensions of employability Result: 18 variables - out of originally 77 - to represent the six dimensions (2-4 variables for each dimension) Helmut Apel Evaluation Conference Nürnberg,

11 3. Empirical Application I. Activity level Active job search during last 4 weeks Preparation of self-employment Participation in further education in last 12 months II. Motivation level III. Willingness for concessions IV. Assessment of skills and capabilities Intrinsic: I set and pursue targets for myself Extrinsic: Most important issue w.r.t work is income Change of occupation Change of residence low(er) income Self-grading: reading Willingness to learn: I enjoy... new experiences I have sound professional experiences Self-grading: writing V. Social context Social support: Nobody really supports me Disintegrated milieu:... got many unemployed friends Social integration: often joining friends Family ties and conflicts.. too many fam. conflicts VI. Psycho-somatic health Physical fitness: Hours, being able to work per day Positive attitude: mostly find positive aspects, too Helmut Apel Evaluation Conference Nürnberg,

12 3. Empirical Application 2 nd Step: Probit estimations LHS variable: Employed five months after interview (yes / no) RHS variables: Observable socio-demographic characteristics: sex, age, schooling, professional qualification, situation before unemployment (work, training) 18 indicators of employability identified by PCA Seven specifications: Spec.1: Socio-demographic variables only Specs. 2-7: Stepwise inclusion of the 6 groups of employability indicators Aim: Testing the predictive power of the employability indicators controlling for socio-demographic characteristics Idea: Employed individuals exhibit high degree of employability variables displaying a significant association with employment probability indicate relevant dimensions of employability Helmut Apel Evaluation Conference Nürnberg,

13 4. Results Continuous increase of pseudo R 2 : Model pseudo R 2 1: Benchmark: Socio-demographics only.062 2: plus Job search / further education activities.066 3: plus Motivation level.073 4: plus Willingness for concessions.089 5: plus Assessment of skills and capabilities.096 6: plus Social context.098 7: plus Psycho-somatic health.116 Predictive power of group of socio-demographic characteristics continuously decreases; but variables remain jointly significant Each group of employability indicators is jointly significant (at least weakly); individual significance of indicators within each group varies Helmut Apel Evaluation Conference Nürnberg,

14 4. Results: Significant Marginal Effects *= p.10 ** = p.05 *** = p.01 I. Action level ** (East only) II. Motivational level * III. Willingness for concessions*** IV. Assessment of skills and Capabilities * + (.06) Active job search during last 4 weeks o Preparation of self-employment o Further education in last 12 months o Intrinsic: I set and pursue targets for myself (.04) Extrinsic: Most importance of work is income o Change of occupation (.05) Change of residence (.06) low(er) income o Self-grading: reading o Willingness to learn: I enjoy... new experiences + (.05) I have sound professional experiences + (.05) Self-grading: writing V. Social context * (.03) Social support: Nobody really supports me (.02) Disintegrated milieu:..many unemployed friends o Social integration: often joining friends o Family ties and conflicts..too many fam. Conflicts VI. Psycho-somatic health *** + (.12) Physical fitness: Hours, being able to work per day + (.03) Positive mind: mostly find positive aspects, too Helmut Apel Evaluation Conference Nürnberg,

15 4. Results Marginal effects of socio-demographic characteristics Sex: female Age: vs years Schooling: compulsory vs. A-levels Prof. qualification (none vs. acad. degree) Before unemployment: schooling/training Before unemployment: in job Spec. 1 benchmark Spec. 7 complete model not significant Helmut Apel Evaluation Conference Nürnberg,

16 5. Conclusions and Outlook Conclusions Theoretically important aspects of employability can be measured by telephone interviews Can be handled by a small data sparing item set Employability indicators increase (roughly double) the predictive power of model with socio-demographic characteristics alone Interpretation not always straightforward, e.g.: Willingness for concessions rather seems to represent discouragement (cf. negative association) Outlook Identification of specific employability indicators for different target groups (e.g. men/women, young/older, east/west) Replication with extended observation period for labour market status (9-12 months) to check robustness of results Helmut Apel Evaluation Conference Nürnberg,

17 Thank you for your attention! Helmut Apel Evaluation Conference Nürnberg,