Downtown GODERICH Trade Area Report

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1 Downtown GODERICH Trade Area Report

2 Foreword This report was prepared by the Ontario Ministry of Agriculture, Food and Rural Affairs for the benefit of the Downtown Goderich Business Improvement Area. Any further dissemination of the report is at the discretion of the Downtown Goderich Business Improvement Area. Downtown Market Analysis provides communities with information about local market conditions and opportunities so they can develop effective strategies for Downtown Revitalization. Determining the size and demographic characteristics of a downtown s trade area is a critical component of the analysis. This trade area analysis provides information about the local consumer demand and demographic characteristics. Trade area boundaries used in the report were derived from locally collected survey data and as such the Ministry makes no warranty as to the reliability and accuracy of the information. The demographic data provided here is based on 2001 Statistics Canada Census data and may not reflect more current trends in the area. The population projections and expenditure estimates reflect a third party methodology (MapInfo Canada). They incorporate explicit economic assumptions about spending behaviour. This methodology is described in Appendix A. None of the projections or estimates represents the Ontario Government policy targets, or desired population outcomes. Readers are cautioned that the secondary data compiled here only provides one perspective on the community's economy. It is provided with the understanding that the local project team is reviewing this information in the context of other important inputs including knowledge about the local community from other sources including: business inventories, municipal studies, results of community surveys and discussions with other community members. PREPARED FOR DOWNTOWN GODERICH BY THE ONTARIO MINISTRY OF AGRICULTURE, FOOD AND RURAL AFFAIRS 1

3 Table of Contents 1.0 Introduction Analyzing Your Trade Area The Importance of Determining Your Trade Area Different Types of Trade Areas Defining Goderich s Trade Area Size and Shape of Goderich s Trade Area Demographic Characteristics of Goderich s Trade Area General Population Characteristics of Goderich Population Population Projections Daytime Population s Age Income Distribution Family Structure and Marital Status Housing Tenure and Dwelling Characteristics Educational Attainment Employment Occupations Ethnic Origin Expenditure Estimates Canadian Expenditure Potential Categories...18 Expenditure Potential Summary...19 Food...20 Shelter...21 Furnishings...22 Operation...23 Equipment...24 Clothing...25 Transportation...26 Health Care...27 Personal Care...28 Recreation...29 Recreation Vehicles...30 Recreation Services...31 Home Entertainment...32 Reading Materials...33 Alcohol and Tobacco...34 Appendix 1. Estimates and Projections Methodology Statement...35 Estimates and Projections...35 Daytime Population...36 Canada Expenditure Potential...36 Appendix 2. Glossary of Terms...37 Census Data...37 Census Geography...37 Dissemination Areas (DA)...37 Geographic Information Systems (GIS)...37 PREPARED FOR DOWNTOWN GODERICH BY THE ONTARIO MINISTRY OF AGRICULTURE, FOOD AND RURAL AFFAIRS 2

4 Appendix 3. Occupation Breakdown...38 List of Figures Figure 1. Downtown Goderich...5 Figure 2. Downtown Goderich s Trade Area...6 Figure 3. Consumer Products or Services Purchased Disproportionately by Particular Age Groups...9 Figure 4. Goderich s Trade Area Average Income ($)...13 List of Tables Table 1. Curent Population...7 Table 2. Population Projections...7 Table 3. Daytime Population for Goderich s Trade Area...8 Table 4. s...9 Table 5. Age Distribution...10 Table 6. Income...12 Table 7. Family Structure...14 Table 8. Housing Tenure and Dwelling Characteristics...15 Table 9. Educational Attainment...16 Table 10. Employment...16 Table 11. Occupations...17 Table 12. Ethnic Origin...17 List of Graphs Graph 1. Estimated and Projected Rate of Population Change 2005 to Graph 2. Age Distribution...11 Graph 3. Income Distribution...12 PREPARED FOR DOWNTOWN GODERICH BY THE ONTARIO MINISTRY OF AGRICULTURE, FOOD AND RURAL AFFAIRS 3

5 1.0 Introduction Analyzing Your Trade Area Downtown Market Analysis provides communities with information about local market conditions and opportunities, so they can develop effective strategies for Downtown Revitalization. Determining the size and demographic characteristics of a downtown s trade area is a critical component of the analysis. This trade area analysis provides information about the local consumer demand and demographic characteristics that can be used to: 1. Learn the characteristics and buying habits of customers in the trade area. 2. Determine the most appropriate customer groups to target and market. 3. Make decisions regarding the type of businesses, merchandise sold, and services offered. 1.1 The Importance of Determining Your Trade Area A trade area is the geographic area in which the majority of customers for the downtown reside. Once the size of the trade area is determined, you can estimate the number of potential customers that may patronize your downtown. Knowing the trade area also sets the geographic parameters for obtaining demographic and lifestyle information. This information provides insights into the people who live in the trade area and enables you to assess consumer demand for local products and services. 1.2 Different Types of Trade Areas This trade area analysis is based on the downtown as a whole, and provides a generalized trade area for businesses in the downtown. However, it is important to note that different types of retail and service businesses have different trade areas depending on the type and quality of products sold, particular customer preferences and business activity. While every store has its own unique trade area, they can be classified into two different types: Convenience-shopping trade areas are characterized by the ease of access to the goods and services. People will base their decision to buy convenience items (gasoline, groceries, etc.) on shorter travel distance or small travel time. Comparison-shopping trade areas are based on price, selection, quality and style. Consumers are more likely to make purchase decisions after comparing product options (furniture, appliances, etc.) and are willing to travel longer distances for their purchases, making the trade area larger. Other factors that affect the size of a trade area are the type and mix of customers frequenting a downtown. Three common groups of customers are local residents, day-time employees and visitors/tourists. Local residents live within the trade area and usually represent the majority of spending potential for most downtowns. Daytime employees may live in the trade area, but may also commute from outside the area. These employees are potential customers for local businesses. Tourists also represent potential consumers of downtown products and services. PREPARED FOR DOWNTOWN GODERICH BY THE ONTARIO MINISTRY OF AGRICULTURE, FOOD AND RURAL AFFAIRS 4

6 2.0 Defining Goderich s Trade Area Goderich s trade area is the geographic area in which the majority of current and potential customers for Goderich s downtown retail and service businesses reside. This study used 345 reported downtown customer postal codes to determine downtown Goderich s trade area. Customers were interviewed throughout the study area while they visited a selected number of representative businesses, over ten days throughout June 2006 (see Figure 1). Customer postal codes were then analyzed using Geographic Information Systems (GIS) 1. This method provides an estimate of the downtown trade area. Figure 1. Downtown Goderich 1 A description of GIS is available in the Glossary PREPARED FOR DOWNTOWN GODERICH BY THE ONTARIO MINISTRY OF AGRICULTURE, FOOD AND RURAL AFFAIRS 5

7 2.1 Size and Shape of Goderich s Trade Area The trade area for downtown Goderich was established by using the closest 75% of customers. The boundary of Goderich s trade area is presented in the following map (see Figure 2). The map indicates that 75% of downtown customers live within 30km of downtown Goderich. This does not mean that people from outside that boundary never frequent Goderich s downtown but simply that the majority of the customers are likely drawn from this area. Figure 2. Downtown Goderich s Trade Area PREPARED FOR DOWNTOWN GODERICH BY THE ONTARIO MINISTRY OF AGRICULTURE, FOOD AND RURAL AFFAIRS 6

8 3.0 Demographic Characteristics of Goderich s Trade Area This section provides key demographic data for the downtown trade area. The data and the trends revealed are important as they reflect the potential sales of retail goods and services for Goderich. Population characteristics can also be important indicators of demand/need for public services such as libraries, daycare centres and recreation facilities, which can often play a key role in attracting people to the downtown. Comparing Goderich s trade area with the local municipality and the province allows demographic baselines to be established. These baselines will help determine whether your trade area has low, medium, or high levels in a particular demographic category. 3.1 General Population Characteristics of Goderich Population Knowing the population size is important for measuring the current market and consumer demand. Population is defined as all persons living within Goderich s downtown trade area boundary. The population of downtown Goderich s trade area in 2005 was estimated at 29,555 people. Table 1. Curent Population Population Downtown Goderich's Trade Area 2001 Census* 29, estimated 29,555 *This population estimate has been generated by MapInfo Canada Source: Statistics Canada, 2001 and MapInfo Canada, Population Projections Anticipated household or population growth may indicate future opportunities for business expansion and/or recruitment. Table 2 and Graph 1 shows that over the next decade, population within Goderich s downtown trade area is projected to grow by only 1.0%. This growth is projected to be higher than Huron County (.2%) and much less than the Province of Ontario (9.6%). Because of the limit growth in population, it is likely that consumer-spending potential in Goderich s trade area will only increase marginally. Table 2. Population Projections Population Projections Downtown Goderich's Trade Area Huron County Ontario Population Projections 2008 projected 29,717 61,507 12,921, projected 29,824 61,633 13,192, projected 29,775 61,435 13,747,320 Change in Population (percent) 2005 to % 0.30% 3.30% 2008 to % 0.20% 2.10% 2010 to % -0.30% 4.20% *This Population estimate has been generated by MapInfo Canada, 2005 PREPARED FOR DOWNTOWN GODERICH BY THE ONTARIO MINISTRY OF AGRICULTURE, FOOD AND RURAL AFFAIRS 7

9 Graph 1. Estimated and Projected Rate of Population Change 2005 to Percentage % to to to Goderich's Trade Area 75% of Customers Source: MapInfo Canada, Huron County Ontario Daytime Population Daytime population is an estimate of people who work in the trade area during the day with an estimate of people at home during the day, such as stay-at-home parents and retirees. Knowing daytime population is important in identifying different retail opportunities. For instance, having a high daytime population creates a greater potential demand for restaurants, bars, financial institutions, dry cleaners, florists, coffee shops, business supply stores, retailers, and specialty stores catering to a daytime shopper. Table 3 shows that within Goderich s downtown trade area the 2005 estimated daytime population is 15, 252 people. Table 3. Daytime Population for Goderich s Trade Area Daytime Population Downtown Goderich's Trade Area Huron County Ontario % % % 2005 Total Daytime Population 28,515 58,913 11,926, Daytime Employees 15,252 53% 32,210 55% 6,301,861 53% 2005 Daytime Population at home 13,264 47% 26,703 45% 5,624,576 47% Age 0 to 14 years 5,106 18% 11,108 19% 2,279,763 19% Age 15 to 64 years 3,132 11% 5,800 10% 1,853,588 16% Age 65 plus years 5,027 18% 9,795 17% 1,491,225 13% *This Daytime Population estimate has been generated by MapInfo Canada, 2005 PREPARED FOR DOWNTOWN GODERICH BY THE ONTARIO MINISTRY OF AGRICULTURE, FOOD AND RURAL AFFAIRS 8

10 3.1.4 s Along with population and daytime population, the number of households is another method for quantifying the current market size and growth, both of which are vital in determining consumer demand. s consist of one or more persons who live together in the same housing unit, regardless of their relationship to each other (including all occupied housing units). Anticipated growth in the number of households may indicate an increase in future demand for goods and services, as well as opportunities for business expansion and/or recruitment. In 2005, the number of households in Goderich s downtown trade area was estimated to be 11,312. Consistent with the population projections, the number of households within Goderich s downtown trade area is projected to grow. This growth (2.8%) is similar to the growth projected for Huron County, however, is much lower than the Province of Ontario (20.6%). Table 4. s s Downtown Goderich's Trade Area Huron County Ontario Total s 2001 s 11,199 22,835 4,386, estimate 11,312 22,983 4,681, projection 11,420 23,155 4,908, projection 11,493 23,269 5,060, projection 11,532 23,327 5,378,940 Change in s (percent) 2001 to % 0.60% 6.70% 2005 to % 0.70% 4.90% 2008 to % 0.50% 3.10% 2010 to % 0.20% 5.90% Average number of persons in private households * estimates and projections have been generated by MapInfo Source: Statistics Canada, 2001 and MapInfo Canada, Age Age is an important demographic factor because the type and level of personal expenditures change as individual s age. Therefore, the number and proportion of people in the trade area from different age groups will determine the viability and potential for certain business types and store merchandise (see Figure 3). Figure 3. Consumer Products or Services Purchased Disproportionately by Particular Age Groups Age Group Product or service Under 25 Transportation, apparel, entertainment, personal care, food away from home, education 25 to 34 Home ownership, household appliances, do-it-yourself products, housing costs, entertainment, apparel, transportation 35 to 49 Apparel, housing costs, home ownership, entertainment, transportation 50 to 64 Travel, recreational products and services, personal insurance, household furnishing 65 to 79 Health, travel, home services, housing repairs, food at home, public transportation 80 and over Health, home services, housing repairs, food at home Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Consumer in 1995, 1997; based on Consumer Expenditure Survey data For example, drug stores often do well in communities with a larger number of people over the age of 65. Realizing and catering to the needs of an aging population can be beneficial to any retailer in such a community. Similarly, toy stores, day care centers, and stores with baby care items can be successful PREPARED FOR DOWNTOWN GODERICH BY THE ONTARIO MINISTRY OF AGRICULTURE, FOOD AND RURAL AFFAIRS 9

11 in areas with many children and infants. Clothing stores and fast food establishments might thrive in retail areas that contain a large concentration of adolescents. Theatres serve a broad section of the population; however, specialized entertainment and recreation options can target certain age groups. Table 5 and Graph 2 describe the age distribution in downtown Goderich s trade area. There are a number of age differences between downtown Goderich s trade area, Huron County and the Province of Ontario. In general, the average age of downtown Goderich s trade area is slightly older than both Huron County and the Province. Seniors in the downtown trade area make up 19% of the population compared to 17% in Huron County and 13% in the Province of Ontario. Another difference between Goderich s downtown trade area, Huron County and the Province is shown in the age groups 25 to 34 years and 35 to 44 years. The Provincial figures show higher percentages of residents in these age groups, suggesting that Goderich s downtown trade area and Huron County may have an outflow of young people to other areas 2. Table 5. Age Distribution Age Downtown Goderich's Trade Area Huron County Ontario % % % 2001 Total Population 28,229 58,852 11,410,045 Age 0 to 4 years 1,561 6% 3,451 6% 671,250 6% 5 to 14 years 3,886 14% 8,517 14% 1,561,500 14% 15 to 24 years 3,646 13% 7,897 13% 1,487,835 13% 25 to 34 years 2,683 10% 5,779 10% 1,558,495 14% 35 to 44 years 3,987 14% 8,604 15% 1,959,510 17% 45 to 54 years 4,177 15% 8,406 14% 1,635,275 14% 55 to 64 years 3,105 11% 6,125 10% 1,063,995 9% 65 to 74 years 2,722 10% 5,303 9% 818,170 7% 75 years and over 2,503 9% 4,918 8% 654,000 6% Average age Median age Dominant age group 45 to 54 years 15% 35 to 44 years 15% 35 to 44 years 17% Senior Citizens (65 and over) 5,225 19% 10,221 17% 1,472,170 13% Source: Statistics Canada, For more information on the age distribution in Rural and Urban Ontario in 2001 visit: PREPARED FOR DOWNTOWN GODERICH BY THE ONTARIO MINISTRY OF AGRICULTURE, FOOD AND RURAL AFFAIRS 10

12 Graph 2. Age Distribution 75 years and over 65 to 74 years 55 to 64 years Percentage % 45 to 54 years 35 to 44 years 25 to 34 years 15 to 24 years 5 to 14 years 0 to 4 years Source: Statistics Canada, Goderich's Trade Area 75% of Customers Huron County Ontario Income Distribution income is a good indicator of the spending power of residents, as well as their preferences for particular goods and services. To decide where to locate a store, retailers may consider the median or average household income in a trade area or seek a minimum number of households within a certain income range. Another common practice is to analyze the distribution of household incomes. Discount stores avoid extreme high or low-income areas. Traditional department stores focus on markets with incomes over $35,000, while some specialty fashion stores target incomes above $75,000. A few store categories, including auto parts, are typically found in areas with lower household incomes 3. It should be noted however, that using income as the sole measure of a market's tastes and preferences may be misleading. Other factors that may be considered include family structure, education, occupation, ethnicity, etc. Table 6, Graph 3 and Figure 4 show that Goderich s downtown trade area and Huron County have both a lower per capita income and average household income than the Province. This lower income may be related to the higher proportion of older residents in Goderich with fixed incomes. A smaller proportion of households in Goderich s trade area (27%) have high incomes between $60,000 and $100,000, than Huron County (29%) and the Province (29%). Similarly, downtown Goderich s trade area has a higher proportion of households in lower income categories than the county and province. For example, Goderich s downtown trade area has 16% of its households falling under the $20,000 income group compared to 14% for Huron County and 14% for Ontario. The largest percentage of households in Goderich s trade area (25%) fall under the household income category of $20,000- $39, Downtown and Business District Market Analysis, Center for Community Economic Development, University of Wisconsin. PREPARED FOR DOWNTOWN GODERICH BY THE ONTARIO MINISTRY OF AGRICULTURE, FOOD AND RURAL AFFAIRS 11

13 Table 6. Income Income Downtown Goderich's Trade Area Huron County Ontario % % % 2001 Per Capita Income $ Average Income $27,161 $26,942 $32,865 Median Income $21,639 $21,859 $24,886 Average household income $ 2001 income $53,278 $53,951 $66, estimated $58,268 $59,267 $75, projected $63,553 $64,631 $83, projected $67,088 $68,217 $88, Estimated s by Income $ 11,312 22,983 4,681,156 Less than $20,000 1,781 16% 3,322 14% 632,260 14% $20,000-39,999 2,856 25% 5,618 24% 826,999 18% $40,000-59,999 2,456 22% 5,007 22% 765,595 16% $60,000-79,999 1,987 18% 4,156 18% 660,314 14% $80,000-99,999 1,071 9% 2,508 11% 684,826 15% $100,000 and over 1,161 10% 2,372 10% 1,111,162 24% Government transfer payments 15.50% 14.50% 9.80% *Income estimates and projections have been generated by MapInfo Canada Source: Statistics Canada, 2001, and MapInfo Canada, Graph 3. Income Distribution Percentage % Less than $20,000 $40,000-59,999 $80,000-99,999 $20,000-39,999 $60,000-79,999 $100,000 and over Source: MapInfo Canada, Goderich's Trade Area 75% of Customers Huron County Ontario Figure 4 presents average household income levels in Goderich and the surrounding area, with the boundary for Goderich s downtown Trade Area shown by the green circle. As illustrated in the map, sections of Goderich s trade area have higher average household incomes than others. PREPARED FOR DOWNTOWN GODERICH BY THE ONTARIO MINISTRY OF AGRICULTURE, FOOD AND RURAL AFFAIRS 12

14 Figure 4. Goderich s Downtown Trade Area Average Income ($) PREPARED FOR DOWNTOWN GODERICH BY THE ONTARIO MINISTRY OF AGRICULTURE, FOOD AND RURAL AFFAIRS 13

15 3.1.7 Family Structure and Marital Status s can be composed of people living alone, families with or without children, single parent households, or a number of unrelated people living together. Family structure is important in identifying different retail opportunities. For instance, households with children generally will spend more money on children s clothes and food while married households without children typically spend more on appliances and home furnishings. Table 7 shows the family structure for Goderich s downtown trade area. Similar to Huron County, the trade area has a large percentage of married and common-law couple households. However, downtown Goderich s trade area has a slightly smaller percentage of families with children. This value is reflected in both slightly smaller household and family sizes and may be due to the older population in the area. Table 7. Family Structure Family Structure and Marital Status Downtown Goderich's Trade Area Huron County Ontario % % % Census families in private households by family structure 10,594 21,627 4,183,145 Living alone 2,701 25% 5,266 24% 990,160 24% Married & Common-law couples 7,028 66% 14,713 68% 2,704,885 65% With no children at home 3,541 33% 7,050 33% 1,110,095 27% With children at home 3,475 33% 7,636 35% 1,594,785 38% Lone-parent families 865 8% 1,624 8% 486,105 12% Total children at home by age 8,942 19,530 3,809,265 Under 6 years of age 2,025 23% 4,245 22% 818,690 21% 6-14 years 3,465 39% 7,725 40% 1,402,155 37% years 1,232 14% 2,730 14% 456,415 12% years 1,687 19% 3,615 19% 724,900 19% 25 years and over 529 6% 1,230 6% 407,100 11% Children/family Source: Statistics Canada, Housing Tenure and Dwelling Characteristics Housing tenure refers to the number of owner occupied and renter occupied housing units. Dwelling characteristics refers to the age and type of housing units. These statistics are valuable in analyzing the potential for a variety of different products and services. For instance, a higher level of home ownership typically translates into higher expenditures for home furnishings and home equipment. Furthermore, dwelling characteristics such as the age of the dwelling, type of dwelling unit, etc. may point to different levels of demand for home improvement, furniture, appliances, hardware, paint/wallpaper, floor covering, garden centers and other home products and services. Table 8 shows the Housing Tenure and Dwelling Characteristics for Goderich s downtown trade area. Goderich s downtown trade area and Huron County have a higher percentage (77% and 77%) of owner-occupied housing when compared to the Province (68%). Goderich s downtown trade area and the County both have a higher proportion of older dwellings built before 1946 (43% and 44%) than the Province (17%). In terms of newer houses, built since 1991, the trade area and County has a lower proportion (9% and 9%) than the Province (15%). As well, the downtown trade area, similar to Huron County, has a larger percentage of single-detached housing (83% and 84%) when compared with the Province of Ontario (58%). PREPARED FOR DOWNTOWN GODERICH BY THE ONTARIO MINISTRY OF AGRICULTURE, FOOD AND RURAL AFFAIRS 14

16 Table 8. Housing Tenure and Dwelling Characteristics Housing Tenure and Dwelling Characteristics Downtown Goderich's Trade Area Huron County Ontario % % % 2001 Total Occupied private dwellings 10,769 21,967 4,219, Housing Ownership Owned 8,327 77% 16,962 77% 2,862,295 68% Rented 2,449 23% 4,974 23% 1,351,365 32% Occupied private dwellings by period of construction 10,769 21,967 4,219,410 Before ,625 43% 9,717 44% 703,410 17% ,221 11% 2,502 11% 692,700 16% ,139 11% 2,159 10% 680,890 16% ,727 16% 3,255 15% 795,115 19% ,109 10% 2,485 11% 743,770 18% % 1,057 5% 286,800 7% % 792 4% 316,730 8% Dominant period of construction Before % Before % % Occupied private dwellings by maintenance required 10,769 21,967 4,219,410 Regular maintenance only 6,703 62% 13,825 63% 2,830,380 67% Minor repairs 3,189 30% 6,402 29% 1,074,735 25% Major repairs 846 8% 1,711 8% 314,300 7% 2001 Type of Housing Units Single-detached house 8,886 83% 18,449 84% 2,460,330 58% Semi-detached house 294 3% 620 3% 262,770 6% Row house 154 1% 310 1% 307,335 7% Apartment, detached duplex 95 1% 215 1% 92,260 2% Apartment less than 5 storeys 1,149 11% 1,955 9% 406,020 10% Highrise Apartment 0 0% 0 0% 678,320 16% Mobile Home or Trailer 198 2% 441 2% 12,370 0% Average value of dwellings $135,292 $133,913 $199,884 Rented Dwellings 2,449 4,974 1,351,365 s spending 30% to 99% of household income on gross rent % 1,548 31% 458,040 34% Owned Dwellings 8,327 16,962 2,862,295 s spending 30% or more of household income on owned shelter % 1,828 11% 485,895 17% Source: Statistics Canada, Educational Attainment Although retailers are generally interested in income levels to determine potential demand, educational attainment is also a useful indicator for specific types of products. In particular, the siting of bookstores is often based on the number of highly educated individuals in the trade area. Similarly, computer and software stores are often located in areas with high levels of education. Table 9 shows the educational attainment for the population aged 20 and over in Goderich s downtown trade area. Goderich s downtown trade area and Huron County have a higher percentage of people with less than a high school diploma (32% and 35%) when compared with the province of Ontario (26%). At the same time, the downtown trade area and the County of Huron have a higher percentage of people with either a trades certificate and college diploma (33% and 31%), compared to Ontario (27%). The downtown trade area and the County of Huron have a lower proportion of people with a university education (9% and 8%), compared to Ontario (19%). PREPARED FOR DOWNTOWN GODERICH BY THE ONTARIO MINISTRY OF AGRICULTURE, FOOD AND RURAL AFFAIRS 15

17 Table 9. Educational Attainment Educational Attainment Downtown Goderich's Trade Area Huron County Ontario % % % 2001 Total Population by Educational Attainment 20,139 41,351 8,282,160 Less than high school 6,517 32% 14,592 35% 2,125,865 26% High School graduate 3,216 16% 6,835 17% 1,174,770 14% Trades certificate 3,019 15% 5,621 14% 843,480 10% College (with diploma) 3,533 18% 7,137 17% 1,415,490 17% University (with bachelor's or higher) 1,834 9% 3,284 8% 1,586,365 19% Source: Statistics Canada, Employment Table 10 presents the breakdown of the employment level of residents in downtown Goderich s trade area compared to the County and Province. It should be noted that this distribution reflects workers living within the trade area and not necessarily commuting into Goderich. Goderich s downtown trade area has a lower participation rate in the labour force (66.7%) when compared with Huron County (68.2%) and the Province (67.3%). This value is may be due to the older population in the area. Table 10. Employment Employment Downtown Goderich's Trade Area Huron County Ontario Total Population 15 years and over by Labour Force Activity 22,259 45,951 9,048,040 In the labour force 14,841 31,353 6,086,815 Total Employed 14,169 30,100 5,713,900 Total Unemployed 679 1, ,915 Not in the labour force 7,424 14,625 2,961,220 Participation rate 66.70% 68.20% 67.30% Unemployment rate 4.60% 4.10% 6.10% Employment-population ratio 63.70% 65.50% 63.20% Source: Statistics Canada, Occupations Many retailers use the concentration of white or blue-collar workers as another gauge of a market s taste preferences. Specialty apparel stores thrive on middle to upper income areas and above average white-collar employment. Second hand clothing stores and used car dealerships are successful in areas with a higher concentration of blue-collar workers. Office supply stores and large music and video stores are especially sensitive to the occupational profile. These retailers target growth areas with a majority of white-collar workers. Table 11 shows that the occupation breakdown in the downtown trade area is somewhat similar to that of Huron County, with some larger differences between the trade area and the Province 4. Goderich s downtown trade area and Huron County have a higher proportion of blue-collar employees than the province (40% and 43% versus 25%). Likewise, the number of white-collar employees in Goderich s trade area (27%) and Huron County (25%) is less than the province of Ontario (38%). 4 A breakdown of the Occupations and their classification is available in the Glossary PREPARED FOR DOWNTOWN GODERICH BY THE ONTARIO MINISTRY OF AGRICULTURE, FOOD AND RURAL AFFAIRS 16

18 Table 11. Occupations Occupations Downtown Goderich's Trade Area Huron County Ontario % % % All occupations 14,643 31,039 5,992,765 White Collar 3,944 27% 7,867 25% 2,270,710 38% Grey Collar 4,991 34% 9,847 32% 2,220,245 37% Blue Collar 5,799 40% 13,354 43% 1,501,805 25% Occupation - Not Applicable 189 1% 315 1% 94,050 2% Source: Statistics Canada, Ethnic Origin The ethnic origin of potential customers in a trade area affects the relative demand for different types of goods and services. Therefore, knowing the ethnicity of an area is important when choosing the merchandise to be carried. Correct assortments, fashion orientation, advertising media, and product selection are all influenced by ethnicity. Table 12 shows downtown Goderich s trade area and Huron County have a higher percentage of residents of English origin (21% and 18%) compared to the Province (15%). As well, when compared with the province downtown Goderich s trade area and Huron County have a higher percentage of residents of Scottish origin (17% and 16% versus 10%), Irish origin (15% and 14% versus 10%) and German origin (9% and 11% versus 5%). Table 12. Ethnic Origin Ethnic Origin Top 5 Ethnic Origins Source: Statistics Canada, Downtown Goderich's Trade Area Huron County Ontario % % % Canadian 21% Canadian 22% Canadian 19% English 20% English 18% English 15% Scottish 17% Scottish 16% Scottish 10% Irish 15% Irish 14% Irish 10% German 9% German 11% French 7% PREPARED FOR DOWNTOWN GODERICH BY THE ONTARIO MINISTRY OF AGRICULTURE, FOOD AND RURAL AFFAIRS 17

19 4.0 Expenditure Estimates This section presents estimates of expenditures for trade area residents for particular products and services. spending on goods and services are key indicators in estimating consumer purchasing power and market potential. The Expenditure Potential data provides estimates of average annual expenditures for a wide range of goods and services for Canadian households. The data includes both average dollars per household and total dollars spent within the downtown trade area. This dataset can be used to: Estimate total expenditure for a good or service in the trade area. Compare local supply against market demand. Used as a reference in conjunction with a businesses own sales data to derive first approximation estimates of market share. This aids in developing effective strategies for business development. Readers are cautioned that the methodology of creating these estimates reflects economic and demographic assumptions and limitations (see Appendix A) as well as possible errors resulting from local survey sampling. It is recommended that anyone interpreting these estimates should familiarize themselves with these factors before drawing any conclusions based on the information provided. The tables that follow include expenditure categories that fall under the major categories listed below. The unit of measure is total dollars spent each year Canadian Expenditure Potential Categories Food Shelter Operation Furnishings and Equipment Clothing Transportation Health Care Personal Care Recreation Reading Materials and Other Printed matter Tobacco Products and Alcoholic Beverage *Expenditure Potential represents the expenditure patterns of Canadians based on Statistics Canada s Survey of Spending, MapInfo Canada s Estimates and Projections and PSYTE Canada Advantage cluster system. For more information on the methodology used by MapInfo please refer to Appendix 1. PREPARED FOR DOWNTOWN GODERICH BY THE ONTARIO MINISTRY OF AGRICULTURE, FOOD AND RURAL AFFAIRS 18

20 Expenditure Potential Summary 2005 Expenditure Potential Summary Downtown Goderich's Trade Area Huron County Ontario Total Expenditure Total current consumption $451,679,899 $41, $42, $50, Food $73,702,147 $6, $6, $7, Shelter $118,073,767 $10, $10, $13, operation $32,011,276 $2, $2, $3, furnishings and equipment $21,430,691 $1, $2, $2, Clothing $26,450,970 $2, $2, $2, Transportation $92,944,963 $8, $8, $9, Health care $17,461,370 $1, $1, $1, Personal care $10,552,559 $ $ $1, Recreation $39,523,583 $3, $3, $4, Reading materials and other printed matter $3,297,448 $ $ $ Tobacco products and alcoholic beverages $16,231,124 $1, $1, $1, Source: MapInfo Canada, PREPARED FOR DOWNTOWN GODERICH BY THE ONTARIO MINISTRY OF AGRICULTURE, FOOD AND RURAL AFFAIRS 19

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