Student Futures Project

Transcription

1 Student Futures Project Update San Marcos Presentation April 11, 2013 Greg Cumpton Ray Marshall Center, LBJ School of Public Affairs, University of Texas

2 Outline Greetings Student Futures Project Overview Recent Research Efforts Short- term activities Student employment The Bobcat Promise Current Work/Plans for the Future Discussion Conclusion

3 Overview The Student Futures Project is a research partnership that follows the progress of Central Texas seniors as they make the critical transition from high school to postsecondary education and the workforce. Guiding research questions: 1. Which students are participating in postsecondary education and why? 2. Which students are going to work and why? 3. Which students are both working and participating in postsecondary education?

4 Data Senior Exit Survey Many of the reasons why students choose postsecondary education and/or employment are not obtained by school districts through administrative records. Administrative Data Uniquely valuable individual-level information related to postsecondary outcomes is recorded and maintained by ISDs. Outcomes Data RMC utilizes the data provided by the district to obtain postsecondary enrollment (NSC) and employment (TWC) information for high school graduates.

5 Research Partnership Engage in open, regular and clear communication Provide input regarding research needs Effectively coordinate and describe teacher, counselor, principal, campus, and district needs Give timely, thoughtful, and critical feedback to research, products, and communications

6 Research RMC deliverables for the region are intended to balance: Descriptive Information Outcomes, survey responses, and other summary statistics provide signijicant Jlexibility and can be produced for the region and for schools and school districts. Research Small sizes of some school districts high school graduating classes means that performing research for specijic populations of students (say, low-income students) at any one high school could prove problematic. Bringing together data from many schools allows this research to answer pressing local questions.

7 Research Products 2012 to 2013 Findings from the 2012 Senior Surveys (Davis and Cumpton, 2013). Presents 2012 regional survey Vindings. Findings from the 2011 Senior Surveys (Davis and Cumpton, 2012). Presents 2011 regional survey Vindings. Factors Associated with Education and Work after High School for the Classes of 2008 and 2009 (Cumpton et. al., 2012) Demonstrates that factors associated with postsecondary enrollment differ between Central Texas and Texas. Meeting the Need for Locally-based Education Research (Cumpton, 2012) Outlines the regional importance of the SFP. Available:

8 Research Short-Term Activities Analysis Problem IdentiVication: What are the top activities districts and the community can use to leverage increases in postsecondary enrollment? When examining short- term activities or information provided outside of class: Completing a FAFSA Participating in a college fair Taking an ACT/SAT preparation course Meeting with a counselor about college Knowledgeable about Vinancial aid Intend to use loans to pay for college

9 Factors Associated with Postsecondary Enrollment Long-term Within the Classroom Academic sufviciency - Meeting 8th grade math standard* Academic excellence - Taking AP/IB courses* Outside of the Classroom Patterns of successful academic behavior - Taking advanced math courses* Short-term College application within- subject aid College preparation activities - Completing college essays in English - Completing a FAFSA* - Taking a college test prep course* *Factors Associated with Education and Work After High School for the Classes of 2008 and 2009 (Cumpton et.al., 2012)

10 Reasons to Examine Short-Term Strategies Outside the Classroom Convenient: Does not demand additional classroom time and short- term means we could see results quickly. Important: Literature in this Vield and common sense indicate they are important. Focused: These activities are almost exclusively associated with the transition to college. Manageable: There are so many things you CAN do, and this limits the number examined. Collaborative Potential: Require pooling resources across the broader community.

11 Short-Term Outside of the Classroom Variables Examined College Preparation Activities: Visiting one or more college campuses Taking the PSAT Taking ACC courses and/or dual credit Taking ACT/SAT preparation courses Participating in a college fair/college night Submitted a FAFSA Knowledge of Vinancial aid High school counselor interactions related to college Methods students planned to use to pay for college

12 Regional Participation Rates 100% 80% 60% 44% 45% 53% 58% 67% 78% 100% 40% 20% 56% 55% 47% 42% 33% 22% 0% Submitted a FAFSA Met w/a counselor Participated in a about college college fair Currently Participating Currently Participating Plan to pay for Took SAT/ACT prep Considered financial college using loans course aid process easy or very easy Not Currently Participating Marginal Adjusted Predicted Effect: If you kept all other variables at there actual values, what change would you expect to see in postsecondary enrollment?

13 100% Marginal Predicted Effect on Postsecondary Enrollment for Individual Variables 2% 0% 2% 80% 80% 2% 2% 1% 1% 2% 1% 3% 2% 1% 60% 60% 2% 3% 1% 1% 2% 4% 2% 3% 1% 40% 40% 20% 20% 69% 69% 54% 54% 51% 51% 59% 59% 86% 86% 76% 76% 65% 65% 3% 0% 3% 1% 44% 44% 0% 0% 0% Overall Overall Hispanic Hispanic Low-Income Low- Income First-Generation First- GeneraBon 1st 1st QuarBle Quartile 2nd 2nd QuarBle Quartile 3rd 3rd QuarBle Quartile 4th 4th Quartile QuarBle Overall Hispanic Low- Income First- Generation 1st Quartile 2nd Quartile 3rd Quartile 4th Quartile Actual Actual Actual College College College Enrollment Enrollment Enrollment MPE MPE of MPE Counselor of of college Submitting mtg. fair/college College a FAFSA informabon night Actual College Enrollment MPE of paying for college w/loans

14 Predicted Cumulative Effects on College Enrollment Baseline Enrollment Cumulative Effect Enrollment - 65% Overall 4% 3% - 48% Hispanic 6% 6% 5% - 45% Low Income 6% 4% 3% 3% 3% - 49% First Generation 10% 8% 5% 4% 3% - 81% Top Quartile 6% - 70% Second Quartile 6% 3% 3% - 60% Third Quartile 6% 5% - 39% Last Quartile 6% 5% 3% 100% - 80% - 60% - 40% - 20% 0% 20% Met w/counselor about College Completed FAFSA Plan to Pay for College Using Loans Took SAT/ACT Prep. Course Participated in College Fair Considered Financial Aid Easy

15 Longitudinal Survey Responses Hispanic Graduates First- Generation Graduates 80% 70% 60% 50% 80% Did you ever meet with your school/college counselor for the 70% following issue? College information Did you ever meet with your school/college counselor for Took a prep class for the following issue? 60% College the SAT information or ACT Took a prep class for the SAT or ACT 50% 40% FAFSA FAFSA 40% 30% 20% Who in your family attended a 30% Who in your college family or financial aid event? Me attended a college or financial aid event? How do you plan to 20% pay for Me your education after high school? Loans 10% How do you plan to pay for your education after high school? Loans 10% 0% %

16 Number of Activities Engaged In Hispanic Graduates First- Generation Graduates 30% 30% 25% 25% 20% 20% 15% % 10% 10% 5% 5% 0% %

17 Research Short-Term Activities Analysis Problem IdentiVication: What are top Vive things districts and the community can do to increase postsecondary enrollment? Conclusions: Bundling activities is likely more effective at improving post- secondary outcomes The maximum benevits of engaging in these activities occurs for Virst- generation students The threshold for engaging in all six activities is fairly high, but there is likely signivicant benevit for three and four activities as well Some regional improvement on shares of students engaging in multiple activities in recent years

18 Research High School Employment Problem IdentiVication: How has the recession impacted high school student employment? Answer: Yes, the recession appears to have changed the job market for high school seniors Though to a lesser extent, the job market for high school graduates has also changed

19 Employment Status Junior Year to Quarter after High School Graduation 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 45% % 10% 29 % %

20 Employment Status Junior Year to Quarter after High School Graduation 70% Minimum Plan % 50% 40% % 20% 10% Recommended % 2004 qtr qtr qtr qtr qtr qtr qtr qtr qtr qtr qtr qtr qtr qtr qtr qtr qtr qtr qtr qtr qtr qtr qtr qtr qtr qtr qtr qtr qtr qtr

21 Employment Status after High School Graduation 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% % 0%

22 Research High School Employment Problem IdentiVication: How has the recession impacted high school student employment? Conclusions: There is likely a regional change in employment opportunities for high school seniors Student who graduate on the minimum plan are more likely feel the effects of this change than students graduating on the recommended plan Linking students to employers and employment opportunities leads to better work experiences and increases work participation and potential earnings

23 Research San Marcos: The Bobcat Promise Problem IdentiVication: Why don t more San Marcos High School graduates take advantage of the Bobcat Promise? Answer: The primary limitation for San Marcos low- income students utilizing the Bobcat Promise likely stems from not completing the FAFSA prior to the required deadline of March 15 th

24 Research San Marcos: The Bobcat Promise Eligibility Criteria for the TSU Bobcat Promise: Be a Texas Resident Be a Graduate of San Marcos High School Have an adjusted gross income of $35,000 or less Complete the FAFSA no later than March 15 th* Apply and be accepted to Texas State University Be enrolled full- time at TSU

25 Using free or reduced lunch status senior year. * For surveyed high school graduates. Note that nearly 60% of San Marcos high school graduates indicated they completed a FAFSA at some point. Student Futures Project Research San Marcos: The Bobcat Promise Shares of High School Graduates with these characteristics (Averaged from 2008 through 2011 for all graduates; N=1,750) 100% A Graduate of San Marcos High School 44% Have an adjusted gross income $35,000 45% Complete the FAFSA no later than March 15 th* 15% Be enrolled full- time at TSU Analysis consists of two- parts Characteristics of San Marcos HS graduates who enroll in TSU Examine the high school to college activities and outcomes of all San Marcos HS graduates

26 Research San Marcos: The Bobcat Promise San Marcos High School Graduates at TSU (Averaged from 2008 through 2011 for all graduates; N=1,750) More than 260 San Marcos High School Graduates from the classes of 2008 through 2011 enrolled in Texas State University Just over a fourth (29%) were on free or reduced lunch Notable difference between all enrollers and non- low- income enrollers Overall, 76% indicated they completed a FAFSA, with 64% doing so prior to April 1. For low- income students, 86% indicated they completed a FAFSA, with 70% doing so prior to April 1. Remember that 44% of San Marcos HS graduates are low- income.

27 100% Student Futures Project Research San Marcos: The Bobcat Promise San Marcos HS Graduate Enrollment Processes 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 87% 88% 88% 85% 99% 98% 100% 99% 98% 98% 98% 99% 30% 20% 10% 57% 56% 68% 53% 42% 52% 46% 27% 44% 51% 48% 33% 46% 56% 52% 34% 0% Planned to go to college within a year of HS graduation Applied to college Completed FAFSA or technical schoool Accepted to college or technical school At college in fall after HS graduation At college in spring after HS graduation Enrolled in college within a year after HS graduation San Marcos (All) San Marcos (Not FRL) San Marcos (Reduced Lunch) San Marcos (Free Lunch)

28 Research San Marcos: The Bobcat Promise San Marcos High School Graduates (Averaged from 2008 through 2011 for all graduates; N=1,750) For low- income survey takers, who intend to go to college, only 50% completed the FAFSA before April 1 st. The share who completed the FAFSA before college started is 63%. This 13% point gap provides an opportunity to readily increase the share of students completing the FAFSA prior to the TSU deadline for the Bobcat Promise.

29 Research San Marcos: The Bobcat Promise Problem IdentiVication: Why don t more San Marcos High School graduates take advantage of the Bobcat Promise? Conclusions/recommendations: The primary limitation for San Marcos low- income students utilizing the Bobcat Promise likely stems from not completing the FAFSA prior to the required deadline of March 15 th For students on FRL, prioritize TSU applications in the fall of the senior year; prioritize FAFSA completion in February. Potentially include FAFSA discussion and training in economics courses.

30 Research Current Work/Plans for the Future Incorporate available survey and outcomes data into an online interactive dashboard that allows teachers, counselors, principals and district personnel to produced customized reports related to specivic topics of interest. Examine factors in the 11 th and 12 th grade, including coursework and activities, to determine the extent to which decisions made by students in these two years invluences their initial college enrollment and one- year persistence. Future Plans: Senior Survey Discussion and Options

31 Research Partnership Guided discussion of the research partnership: Engage in open, regular and clear communication Provide input regarding research needs Effectively coordinate and describe teacher, counselor, principal, campus, and district needs Give timely, thoughtful, and critical feedback to research, products, and communications

32 For More Information Greg Cumpton Ray Marshall Center Lyndon B. Johnson School of Public Affairs The University of Texas at Austin Christopher T. King, Director Ray Marshall Center Lyndon B. Johnson School of Public Affairs The University of Texas at Austin