Understanding the Intel/Micron 3D XPoint Memory Jim Handy Objective Analysis

Transcription

1 Understanding the Intel/Micron 3D XPoint Memory Jim Handy Objective Analysis

2 Agenda What Is It? Why Is This Happening? Who Wants It? Is The World Ready For It? Why Should I Care? When Will This Happen? 2

3 Agenda What Is It? Why Is This Happening? Who Wants It? Is The World Ready For It? Why Should I Care? When Will This Happen? 3

4 3D XPoint Concept 4

5 The Real Thing 5

6 Intel Has Researched PCM For 45 Years! 6

7 How Many Ways Have Been Tried? 7

8 Agenda What Is It? Why Is This Happening? Who Wants It? Is The World Ready For It? Why Should I Care? When Will This Happen? 8

9 NAND Laid The Path To Increased Hierarchy Levels $1, $ Average Price per Gigabyte $10.00 $1.00 DRAM NAND $ Source: A Close Look at the Intel/Micron 3D XPoint Memory, Objective Analysis

10 Ratio of DRAM-NAND Prices 16X Ratio of DRAM to NAND Price per GB 14X 12X 10X 8X 6X 4X 2X 0X Source: A Close Look at the Intel/Micron 3D XPoint Memory, Objective Analysis

11 Why This? Why Now? 1.E E Semiconductor memories becoming faster and cheaper L1 1.E L2 Bandwidth (MB/s) 1.E E Disks becoming cheaper, but no faster DRAM L3 1.E HDD 1.E Tape Result: Speed gap is widening 1.E E E E E E E E E Price per Gigabyte Source: A Close Look at the Intel/Micron 3D XPoint Memory, Objective Analysis

12 Where 3D XPoint Fits In The Memory/Storage Hierarchy E E+06 L E+05 L2 Bandwidth (MB/s) E E E+02 SSD 3D XPoint DRAM L3 HDD E+01 Tape E+00 1.E E E E E E E E+06 Price per Gigabyte Source: A Close Look at the Intel/Micron 3D XPoint Memory, Objective Analysis

13 Agenda What Is It? Why Is This Happening? Who Wants It? Is The World Ready For It? Why Should I Care? When Will This Happen? 13

14 Patents Leaked Intel s Plans 14

15 How Much Does XPoint Help? 15

16 3D XPoint s Place in the Memory/Storage Hierarchy 16

17 Great Gains at Low Queue Depths 17

18 Clear, But Complex Economic Benefits 18

19 Agenda What Is It? Why Is This Happening? Who Wants It? Is The World Ready For It? Why Should I Care? When Will This Happen? 19

20 About That Timing Timing is good because: DRAM is running out of speed NVDIMMs are catching on Some sysadmins understand how to use flash to reduce DRAM needs Timing is bad because: Nobody can make it economically No software supports SCM New layers take time to establish 20

21 Agenda What Is It? Why Is This Happening? Who Wants It? Is The World Ready For It? Why Should I Care? When Will This Happen? 21

22 What 3D XPoint Means To You Better cost/performance ratio Lower power consumption Less DRAM More performance per server Lower OpEx In-memory databases start to make sense 22

23 Agenda What Is It? Why Is This Happening? Who Wants It? Is The World Ready For It? Why Should I Care? When Will This Happen? 23

24 When Will It Ship? 24

25 The Issue of Learning $100,000 DRAM Learning Curve $10,000 Average Price per Gigabyte $1,000 $100 $10 $1 1,000 10, ,000 1,000,000 10,000, ,000,000 Cumulative Gigabyte Shipments Over Time (Thousands) Source: A Close Look at the Intel/Micron 3D XPoint Memory, Objective Analysis

26 Server DRAM Gigabyte Forecasts: With/Without 3D XPoint 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 Without 3D XPoint 500 With 3D XPoint Source: A Close Look at the Intel/Micron 3D XPoint Memory, Objective Analysis 2015 Annual Gigabyte Shipments (Millions) 26

27 Server DRAM Revenue Forecasts: With/Without 3D XPoint $6 Annual DRAM Revenues ($Billions) $5 $4 $3 $2 $1 Without 3D XPoint With 3D XPoint $ Source: A Close Look at the Intel/Micron 3D XPoint Memory, Objective Analysis

28 3D XPoint Optimistic Server Revenues $2.5 Annual 3D XPoint Revenues ($Billions) $2.0 $1.5 $1.0 $0.5 $ Source: A Close Look at the Intel/Micron 3D XPoint Memory, Objective Analysis

29 Summary What Is It? A New, fast, cheap crosspoint memory Why Is This Happening? The market s ready, and memory can t keep up Who Wants It? Everyone eventually! Is The World Ready For It? Not yet Why Should I Care? It has a direct impact on your systems When Will This Happen? Launch, Big impact, much later 29

30 Resources A Close Look at the Intel/Micron 3D XPoint Memory, Objective Analysis, September 2015: How PC NAND Will Undermine DRAM, Objective Analysis, 2011: Intel/Micron 3D XPoint introduction: Intel Developer Forum (IDF) 2015 presentations: Micron Summer Analyst Day: 30