Census 2011 Analysis: Population, Households & Growth

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1 Census 2011 Analysis: Population, Households & Growth 1. Introduction This briefing provides an overview of key trends in the growth and change of Hackney s population, its households and their characteristics, drawing on Census 2011 data. 2. Summary Hackney s Population Hackney s population has grown significantly in the last ten years, with the 2011 Census estimate showing a 20% increase. Much of this growth has been in the age group. The borough is relatively young compared to London, with a greater proportion aged and fewer aged over 45. The growth pattern across the borough varies significantly at ward level with Dalston, Hoxton, and Leabridge are all estimated to have experienced growth of over 40% over the last ten years, likely linked to housing developments in these wards. In other parts of the borough the population has not experienced growth. Projected Growth Projected trends in population for Hackney are predicted up to Over this time period a growth of around 70,000 persons is expected, with most of this growth taking place in the working age (16-64) population. This growth is also predicted to vary significantly by ward, with Haggerston, Hoxton and Brownswood expected to experience the most growth in the medium term. Housing and Household Trends The number of households in Hackney has grown significantly, from 86,040 in 2001 to 101,690 in Much of this growth has been driven by increase in the private rented sector. This growth has taken place throughout the borough, but particularly in areas such as Leabridge, Dalston and Haggerston. Household structures have also changed over the last ten years, the most significant trend has been the increase in other multi person households, which most likely reflects an increase in sharers, renting rooms in properties rather than whole properties. Alongside this, there has been a drop in the proportion of one-person households, which could be linked to affordability constraints. Hackney is a relatively densely populated borough with an average household size of 2.4 persons, but this varies significantly between wards. Overcrowding and Deprivation In Hackney 16% of households in Hackney are overcrowded using Census definitions. This is lower than boroughs such as Newham (25%), Brent (18%) and Tower Hamlets (17%) but higher than the London average of 12%. Hackney experiences higher levels of deprivation in the east of the borough 1

2 3. Hackney s Population The 2011 Census estimates Hackney s population to be 246,270. This is 8,600 higher than Hackney s independent Local Population Study Mayhew count, which estimated Hackney s minimum confirmed population at 237, The 2011 Census figure is also 20% higher than the last Census estimate in The table below sets out the age structure for Hackney s population. Hackney s population is relatively young compared to London, with a greater proportion aged 25-34, and fewer aged over 45. Similar overall proportions are aged Figure 3.1: Population Age Structure Age Band Hackney Persons Hackney Proportion London Persons London Proportion % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % All Persons Total Source: Census 2011 In terms of changes to the age structure over the period 2001 to 2011, the greatest growth has been in the proportion of year olds. However, it should be noted that the 2001 Census is thought to have undercounted the population in Hackney, particularly for young adults, therefore some of this change may not be genuine. 1 Each year the ONS updates the population estimate for local authorities by releasing a Mid Year Estimate of the population, Hackney s most recent Mid-Year Estimate is available via 2

3 Figure 3.2: Change in Population Age Structure Age Band 2011 Hackney Persons 2011 Hackney Proportion 2001 Hackney Persons Hackney Proportion % 16,751 8% % 14,166 7% % 14,083 7% % 12,603 6% % 15,790 8% % 20,781 10% % 21,487 11% % 19,693 10% % 14,523 7% % 10,958 5% % 9,365 5% % 7,058 3% % 6,640 3% % 5,493 3% % 4,908 2% % 3,854 2% % 2,459 1% % 2,213 1% All Persons Total ,825 Source: Census 2011 & Census Growth Trends The overall growth rate for the borough between 2001 and 2011 was 20%. The growth pattern across the borough varies significantly at ward level. Dalston, Hoxton, and Leabridge are all estimated to have experienced growth of over 40% during this period according to Census data. This growth is likely linked to new housing delivered in these wards. Other areas such as Queensbridge, Haggerston and De Beauvoir have also experienced notable growth. Brownswood ward is the only ward which was estimated to have experienced a drop in the population. This is likely linked to decanting of housing linked to regeneration schemes Census data may not sum exactly due to the random adjustment of data to avoid the release of confidential data. For that reason 2001 census person totals are rounded to the nearest five persons 3

4 Figure 4.1: Ward Population and Growth 2011 Persons 2001 Persons % Growth Brownswood 11,091 11,332-2% Cazenove 13,392 10,504 27% Chatham 13,232 10,736 23% Clissold 12,212 10,438 17% Dalston 14,727 10,357 42% De Beauvoir 13,643 9,925 37% Hackney Central 12,548 10,282 22% Hackney Downs 12,921 10,269 26% Haggerston 13,904 10,366 34% Hoxton 15,174 10,702 42% King's Park 11,098 10,961 1% Leabridge 14,039 9,855 42% Lordship 12,280 11,301 9% New River 12,551 11,510 9% Queensbridge 13,670 10,177 34% Springfield 12,378 10,851 14% Stoke Newington Central 12,445 10,140 23% Victoria 13,231 12,068 10% Wick 11,734 11,053 6% 246, ,825 21% Source: Census 2011 & Census 2001 As stated above, caution should be used, however, in interpreting this since the 2001 Census is believed to have undercounted the population of Hackney. Therefore, while growth rates are indicative they may not be wholly representative of trends over the last ten years. For these reason no further or more detailed comparisons with 2001 Census data are made. 5. Projection Population Growth Using Census 2011 data as a base it is possible project forward likely future trends in the size and age structure of the population. The GLA produce a range of population projections that take into account the local fertility, mortality and migration trends as well as the effect of new housing development on the potential trends in population size. The graph below shows the projected trends in population for Hackney predicted up to Over this time period a growth of around 70,000 persons is expected. The population projections are refreshed every year by the GLA to keep pace with new and emerging population trends 3. 3 For more information on the current round of GLA projections see 4

5 Figure 5.1: Projection Population Growth in Hackney 250, , , , , Source: Census 2001 & 2011, & GLA SHLAA Population Projections 2012 Round Overall, growth is projected in all age groups. However, it is the working age population (16-64 year olds) who are projected to grow most significantly. The majority of the population growth over the period can be accounted for by this segment of the population. The young population (0-15s) is also predicted to grow over the next ten year period, flattening after Growth is also predicted in the 65+ age group, and this is particularly marked from 2021 onwards. Prior to 2011 this age group fell slightly. The shift to growth in this age group after 2011 can be accounted for by falling mortality rates, increasing life expectancy, and the baby boom population reaching retirement age. Explanatory Note: GLA Population Projections As set out above, GLA population projections make use of demographic information on fertility, mortality and migration, then information on new housing development as predicted in the Strategic Housing and Land Availability Assessment or SHLAA is added into the projection model to arrive at final projections. By taking account of planned or expected new housing developments, the estimates which are based on solely demographic information may either be increased (because the new housing development, is driving population growth) or constrained (because recent trends in population change outstrip the housing capacity for further population increase even when significant new housing development is planned). In these cases, it can be argued that increased pressure on housing could lead to increasing household sizes. Further work is planned by the GLA to explore these scenarios. 5

6 The graph below sets out the impact of planned housing development on expected population growth. At one extreme are Greenwich and Tower Hamlets, where development-linked growth greatly outstrips prior trends. At the other extreme are Redbridge and Enfield where the housing development trajectory provides insufficient new dwellings to keep pace with recent trends. Hackney is expected to experience relative balance between housing development and population trends, with some pressure on new dwelling supply to keep pace with population trends. Figure 5.2: Difference in projected 2031 populations between SHLAA and demographic trend based variants The projection models above make use of SHLAA data to predict housing development growth. By using SHLAA data, full comparisons are available with other boroughs as part of the published set of population projections used in the evidence base for the London Plan. However, alternative scenarios are available. Most notably, scenarios based on Hackney s own data on expected housing development. While Hackney s own data gives a similar picture of total growth 4, using Hackney s own data provides a more accurate picture of the type and exact location of the planned housing development which improves the accuracy of ward level population projections. It is this data, based on Hackney s own Housing Trajectory, that is used below to map expected growth in the population at ward level over the next ten years. The clear areas of growth are those with major regeneration, city fringe locations, and transport improvements including Brownswood which is undergoing regeneration as part of Woodberry Down estate renewal, and Haggerston and Hoxton close to the city. Town Centre locations such as Hackney Central and Dalston, and Wick which 4 By 2041 Hackney s Housing Trajectory data when constrained by population trends suggests growth could be around 5,000 persons higher than SHLAA projections, within a 2% margin of SHLAA projections. 6

7 will experience housing development as part of the Olympic Legacy will also experience growth. It is worth noting, however, that these models are based on certain assumptions which are applied across London (for example, a static average household size), and may not fully take into account the local nature of households which vary ward to ward. Figure 5.3: Projected Population Growth by Ward Source: GLA BPO Interim Population Projections, 2012 Round 6. Household Growth and Tenure Trends The number of households in Hackney has grown significantly in recent years, from 86,040 in 2001 to 101,690 in Much of this growth has been driven by increase in the private rented sector. The chart below shows the contribution the growth of this sector has made to overall growth trends. 7

8 Figure 6.1: Number of households by tenure Number of Households by Tenure ,000 40,000 60,000 80, , ,000 Owned outright Owned with a mortgage or loan Shared ownership Rented from council Rented from other Social Landlord Private rented: landlord/agency Private rented: Other Source: Census 2011 & Census 2001 Living rent free A similar trend of growth is borne out when data from the borough s Council Tax base is examined. The graph below shows the trend of growth since 2001 and the shifts in the Council Tax Banding 5 of properties. The majority of the growth in Hackney s Council Tax base has taken place in bands C, D, E, likely some of the middle to higher value property in the borough, contributing to Hackney s local tax base. 5 Council tax banding is based on what a property would have sold for on a set date: 1 April Each property is allocated to one of the eight bands, A to H, ( A being the lowest value property band). 8

9 Figure 6.2: Growth in Council Tax Base Growth in Council Tax Base Number of Properties by Band March 2013 October October 2001 March 2013 A B C D E F G H Source: Council Tax Records As described above, this growth in properties comes alongside a shift in tenure patterns across the borough. The table below illustrates in more detail the shift in tenure experienced by each sector. The growth in the private rented sector can partly be accounted for by delivery of new housing units of this tenure, and partially by the fall in owner occupation and Council rented stock, with properties being bought by tenants, both of which have potential to increase the buy to let market. Figure 6.3: Tenure Trends in Hackney and London Hackney 2011 Hackney 2001 London 2011 London 2001 Owner occupied 26% 32% 50% 57% Private rented 29% 16% 24% 15% RSL rented 20% 20% 11% 9% Council rented 24% 31% 14% 17% Living rent free 1% 2% 1% 2% Source: Census 2011 & Census Note: Percentages may not sum due to rounding. Given this significant growth in the private rented sector, above others, this tenure change has been mapped below at ward level. The map shows the wards in the borough which have experienced the most significant growth in the private rented 9

10 sector. They include areas which have experienced a high delivery of new housing units, such as Dalston and Leabridge. Figure 6.4: Growth in the Private Rented Sector Source: Census 2011 & Census 2001 More broadly, the 2011 Census shows that tenure patterns across the borough vary significantly. The maps below show the spatial concentration of the social rented sector, owner occupiers and private rented households. 10

11 Figure 6.5: Social Rented Sector Source: Census 2011 The social rented sector is relatively spread throughout the borough, but with some concentrations in the southern half of Hackney, and the northern most tip close to the border with Haringey. 11

12 Figure 6.6: Owner Occupiers Source: Census 2011 There is some concentration of owner occupiers in the west of the borough, particularly in Stoke Newington and De Beauvoir. 12

13 Figure 6.7: Private Rented Sector Source: Census 2011 Private renting is spread throughout the borough, but again concentrated most significantly in the west of the borough and close to town centres, such as Dalston and the City fringe area in Haggerston. The more nuanced map below shows this data at a lower area level: it is clear that the private rented sector is concentrated in the most urban parts of the borough, along main road the A10, and in the city fringe areas, with some concentration around Hackney Central. 13

14 Figure 6.8: Private Rented Sector and Low Area Level & Estates Source: Census Housing Structure & Change Alongside changes in tenure there have also been shifts in household structure and type. The table below shows changes that have taken place over the last ten years. The most significant trend has been the increase in other multi person households, which most likely reflects the increase in sharers, renting rooms in properties rather than whole properties. Alongside this, there has been a drop in the proportion of oneperson households, which may reflect affordability constraints as those who may previously have lived alone in one-bedroom properties may find they need to share with others to meet costs. This is in line with increases in the proportion of couples without children in the borough. There has also been a small drop in the proportion of 14

15 married couples with dependant children, which again may reflect affordability constraints. Figure 7.1: Household Structure Hackney 2001 Hackney 2011 London 2001 London 2011 Couple with dependant child(ren) 15% 14% 18% 18% Couple with no dependant child(ren) 13% 15% 19% 19% Loneparent with dependant child(ren) 10% 11% 8% 9% Lone parent with no dependant child(ren) 4% 4% 4% 4% One person household 40% 35% 35% 32% Multi person household all student 0% 1% 0% 1% Multi person household with dependent children 5% 4% 4% 5% Multi person household all other 10% 15% 8% 9% All pensioner household 2% 1% 5% 4% Source: Census 2011 & Census 2001 Note: percentages may not sum due to rounding It is important to note that these percentage changes are in the context of an overall increase in household numbers. The chart below presents a visual graphic of the table above, clearly showing the increase in multi-person households. Figure 7.2: Trends in Hackney s Household Structure All pensioner household 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Multi person household all other Multi person household with dependent children Multi person household all student One person household Lone parent with no dependant child(ren) Loneparent with dependant child(ren) Couple with no dependant child(ren) Couple with dependant child(ren) Source: Census 2011 & Census 2001 The location of all other multi-person households shows a clear pattern, with this household type more concentrated in the west and south of the borough, particularly 15

16 around Dalston and London Fields. It is thought that this household type most likely consists of young sharers, renting rooms in larger accommodation. Figure 7.3: Location of Other Household Types Source: Census Household Size and Population Density Census figures show Hackney as a densely populated borough with an average of 129 persons per hectare compared to the London average of 52 persons per hectare. However, it should be noted that Hackney is an inner London borough and it is to be expected that it might have higher density levels than average figures that include outer London boroughs with significant areas of green or open space. Overall, though, Hackney the third most densely populated borough in the country, after Islington and Kensington and Chelsea. 16

17 The map below shows population density levels across the borough. Some areas experience very high levels of density, and others close to the open space of Hackney Marshes or the borough s parks, have very low levels of density. Also included in grey on the map are outlines of the borough s estates, illustrating how population density fits against again the borough s housing estates. While the estates are relatively densely populated, many of the highest density areas are outside of the estates. Figure 8.1: Density Source: Census 2011 The average household size for the borough is 2.4 but this varies significantly between wards, with areas with high child densities such as Springfield and New River having higher household sizes, and areas with more adult households such as Haggerston and Hoxton having lower average household sizes. Current projection models by the GLA estimate household size will remain constant in future years. 17

18 Overall the number of residents in communal establishments does not make up a large portion of the population, but Hoxton contains a significant number of communal establishment residents, reflecting a number of student residences in this area. Figure 8.2: Household Size and Type All usual residents Household residents Communal establishment residents 6 Area (Hectares) Population density Households with at least one usual resident Average household size Brownswood 11,091 10, , Cazenove 13,392 13, , Chatham 13,232 13, , Clissold 12,212 12, , Dalston 14,727 14, , De Beauvoir 13,643 13, , Hackney Central 12,548 12, , Hackney Downs 12,921 12, , Haggerston 13,904 13, , Hoxton 15,174 14, , King's Park 11,098 11, , Leabridge 14,039 13, , Lordship 12,280 12, , New River 12,551 12, , Queensbridge 13,670 13, , Springfield 12,378 12, , Stoke Newington Central 12,445 12, , Victoria 13,231 13, , Wick 11,734 11, , Hackney 246, ,433 1,837 1, , London 8,173,941 8,073, , , ,266, Source: Census 2011 & Census Overcrowding In addition to examining tenure, density and average household size, the occupancy and overcrowding levels in the borough are important in considering the potential 6 A Communal Establishment is an establishment providing managed residential accommodation. Common types include student halls of residence, some types of sheltered accommodation, small hotels/guesthouses and accommodation for nurses. 18

19 impact of population growth and changes in household structures 7. Based on this data 16% of households in Hackney have an occupancy rating of -1 or less. This is lower than boroughs such as Newham (25%), Brent (18%) and Tower Hamlets (17%) but higher than the London average of 12%. Unfortunately due to changes in data collection between 2001 and 2011 Census comparative data is not available for trend analysis. However, the map below shows how overcrowding levels vary across the borough, with particular concentrations in the north/north-east of the borough, with higher levels also occurring in Hackney Wick and the area around north Haggerston. Figure 9.1: Overcrowding Source: Census Deprivation Dimensions It is also possible through Census data to analyse levels of deprivation. The Census measures deprivation and this is in four domains: employment, education, health and 7 Overcrowding is measured by occupancy rating, a measure of under occupancy and overcrowding in a household. An occupancy rating of -1 or less indicates the household has at least one too few bedrooms to adequately accommodate the individuals living there and is therefore overcrowded. 19

20 disability and housing. The dimensions of deprivation by ONS classify households based on selected characteristics: Employment (any member of a household not a full-time student is either unemployed or long-term sick), Education (no person in the household has at least level 2 education, and no person aged is a fulltime student), Health and disability (any person in the household has general health bad or very bad or has a long term health problem), and Housing (Household's accommodation is ether overcrowded, with an occupancy rating -1 or less, or is in a shared dwelling, or has no central heating). The map below shows the proportion of households who are deprived in two or more of the domains above. This shows higher levels of deprivation in the east of the borough, with concentrations in the north-east, and some pockets in the south of the borough. Much lower levels of multiple deprivation are found in the west of Hackney. Overall 33% of households in the borough experience deprivation in two or more domains. Figure 10.1: Deprivation Level in 2+ Domains Source: Census 2011 Census data can also be analysed to look at the proportion of households deprived in three or more domains. This shows a similar spatial pattern to the map above, but with clearer concentrations in the east and south-east of the borough. Overall, the 20

21 proportion of households deprived in three or more domains is 11%. Only a few percent are deprived in all four domains. Figure 10.2: Deprivation Level in 3+ Domains Source: Census 2011 Census output is Crown copyright and is reproduced with the permission of the Controller of HMSO and the Queen's Printer for Scotland. 21