ICRA Online Ltd A group ICRA company

Transcription

1 ICRA Online Ltd A group ICRA company Mutual Fund Screeners May, 215

2 Section I MUTUAL FUND INDUSTRY OVERVIEW 22/6/215 ICRA Online Limited 2

3 Industry AUM expands again in May 15 Industry Corpus (In Rs. Crore) Industry Corpus 1,3, 1,25, 1% 9% 6% 1,2, 1,15, 2% 1,1, 1,5, 1,, -1% 95, Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Industry Corpus % Change (M-o-M) Source: I Explorer 15% 1% 5% % -5% -1% -15% Change in corpus (M-o-M) 1. Industry AUM breached Rs. 12 lakh crore mark for the second time since Feb 15 as equity market broke the negative momentum of past two months and ended higher in May However, Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) turned sellers of equities in May 215, for the first time since Dec '14 3. In the near term, monsoon is expected to remain a key trigger for central bank's monetary policy stance and direction of equity markets as well. 4. Industry corpus grew 6% during May 15, carrying forward the positive momentum of the previous month. 5. While the AUM of top-1 rose by 5.9% during the month, the next-1 (corpus range 7K-25K Crore) followed the bigger AMCs with a growth rate of 5.6%. 22/6/215 ICRA Online Limited 3

4 Top 5 funds maintain their position over last 5 quarters Industry Positioning by AMCs (last 5 quarters) Industry Positioning by AMCs 1% 1% 1% 12% Share (in %) 8% 6% 4% 2% % Q4FY14 Q1FY15 Q2FY15 Q3FY15 Q4FY15 8% 6% 4% 2% % Change in industry corpus (Q-o-Q) Share (in %) 8% 6% 4% 2% % 9.9% 5.6% -1.4% Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 8% 4% % -4% -8% -12% Change in industry corpus (M-o-M) Source: AI Top 5 Next 1 Rest % Cha nge (Q-o-Q) Top 5 Next 1 Rest % Change MoM (RHS) Source: ICRA Online Research 1. The distribution patterns of asset under management remained consistent across months 2. Industry corpus continued to post positive growth in May 15 as well 3. HDFC, ICICI Prudential, Reliance, Birla Sunlife and UTI remained the top 5 AMCs in last 5 quarters managing over Rs 6.9 lakh crore together. 22/6/215 ICRA Online Limited 4

5 Equities witness record inflows in May 15 Income Liquid/Money Market Equity ELSS - Equity Balanced Gold ETF Gilt FoFs Investing Overseas Other ETFs Infrastructure Debt Fund Category wide distribution of industry corpus for TTM 21.46% 45.53% 25.19% 7.83% Bottom 7 categories Source: AI, ICRA Online Research, Data is as on May-215, TTM-Trailing twelve months 3.27% 2.7%.66%.87%.25%.58%.11% FoFs Investing Overseas Other Etfs Gold Etf Elss - Equity Gilt Liquid/Money Market Balanced Equity Infrastructure Debt Fund Income Net Inflow/Outflow pattern for TTM -6, -2, 2, 6, 1, In Rs. Crore Source: AI, Data is as on May-215, TTM-Trailing twelve months 1. Income fund category witnessed a fall in market share from 45.83% in Apr 15 to 45.53% in May However, equity fund category continued to increase its market share from 24.5% in Apr 15 to 25.19% in May Equity category continued to attract healthy inflows for past 12 months. The category has witnessed inflows in excess of Rs 7, crore for three months in a row. 2. Liquid/Money market witnessed an outflow of Rs. 15K crore, reversing previous month s inflow of Rs. 1 lakh crore. 22/6/215 ICRA Online Limited 5

6 Category Movement Monitor for Trailing Twelve Months 55, 5, 45, 4, 35, Income 3, 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, Liquid/Money Market 35, 3, 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, Equity 45, 4, 35, 3, 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, ELSS - Equity 35, 3, 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, Balanced 12, 9, 6, 3, Gold ETF 18, 16, 14, 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, Gilt 4, 3, 2, 1, FoFs Investing Overseas 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, Other ETFs 1,6 1,4 1,2 1, Infrastructure Debt Fund 1. Equity and Balanced fund category see a steady rise in AUM. Source: AI 22/6/215 ICRA Online Limited 6

7 Category Specific Deep Dive : Equity & Income Net flow (in Rs. crore) 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, - Equity category flow vis-a-vis Sensex Sensex Monthly return (in %) Net flow (In Rs. crore) 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, -5, -1, -15, Income AUM vis-a-vis net flows 54, 52, 5, 48, 46, 44, 42, May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Corpus (In Rs. crore) May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Net Inflow/Outflow Sensex Returns M-o-M (RHS) Corpus (RHS) Net Inflow/Outflow Source: AI, BSE Source: AI 1. Sensex rebounds in May 15, rising 3.8%, backed by encouraging global and domestic cues. 2. Equity fund category managed to see record inflow of Rs. 9,85 in May Income fund corpus witnessed a M-o-M growth of 1.5% in May 15 (at Rs lakh crore). 2. Income fund category managed to reverse the outflow witnessed in the previous month with an inflow of Rs. 4,25 crore in May /6/215 ICRA Online Limited 7

8 Section II SAMPLE ANALYSIS OF SOME SELECT AMC S/REGION 22/6/215 ICRA Online Limited 8

9 Mutual Fund AUM Monitor for BIG-5 AMC Net Inflow - May'15 Net Inflow - Apr'15 AUM - May'15 Net Inflow - May'14 Net Inflow - Apr'14 AUM - May'14 Net Inflow - CM/LM Net Inflow - CM TY/LY HDFC Mutual Fund 7,768 9, ,91 6,59 15, ,22-2% 18% 28% ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund 6,714 11, ,13 11,14 12, ,761-41% -4% 29% Reliance Mutual Fund 1,449 8, ,531 12,616 1, ,859 16% -17% 26% Birla Sun Life Mutual Fund -1,469 13,17 123,581 6,348 12,5 99, % UTI Mutual Fund 5,1 1,396 94,46 5,187 12,27 81,739-52% -4% 15% *CM= Current month, LM = last month, TY = this year, LY = last year THIS YEAR LAST YEAR GROWTH * AUM TY/LY AUM (In Rs. Crore) 18, 15, 12, 9, 6, 3, HDFC ICICI Pru May Reliance -1.2 Birla 5.6 UTI Growth in AUM (M-o-M) RHS % Growth in AUM (M-o-M) 1. Except for Birla Sun Life, other 4 AMCs witnessed healthy net inflows during May Compared to the previous month, only Reliance managed to attract better inflows in May Reliance witnessed the highest M-o-M rise in AUM followed up by UTI and HDFC, respectively. 4. The Big-5 together have close to 55% of the market share 5. As on May 15 there were 9 mutual funds with AUM below Rs 2, crore. Source: ICRA Online research 22/6/215 ICRA Online Limited 9

10 Understanding investment patterns of T-15 and B-15 Contribution of T-15 and Total AUM Contribution of B-15 and Total AUM Contribution of T-15 as % of AUM 95.% 9.% 85.% 8.% 88.7% 88.8% Franklin Templeton Birla Sun Life 9.4% 91.3% IDFC Deutsche 91.8% Kotak Mahindra 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, Contribution of T-15 (in Rs. Crore) Contribution of B-15 as % of AUM 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% % 18.2% Sundaram 19.1% Reliance 22.7% 25.6% 3.7% Axis SBI UTI 3, 2, 1, Contribution of B-15 (in Rs. Crore) Contribution of T-15 as % of total AUM Contribution of T-15 (RHS) Contribution of B-15 as % of total AUM Contribution of B-15 (RHS) Source: AI, AMCs website. AAUM monthly data pertains to May Most funds have a disproportionate share of corpus coming from T-15 with Deutsche, Kotak, IDFC, Franklin and Birla having exposure greater than 88% 2. Out of top 15 mutual funds, 12 mutual funds had more than 8% of its AUM exposure to T In the B-15 category, UTI mutual fund leads the pack with close to 31% of its AUM exposure to B-15 followed by SBI at ~26% Note: As per AI, T-15 cities consist of Mumbai (including Thane & Navi Mumbai), Delhi (including NCR), Bangalore, Kolkata, Chennai, Pune, Ahmedabad, Hyderabad, Baroda, Panjim, Jaipur, Lucknow, Surat, Kanpur and Chandigarh 22/6/215 ICRA Online Limited 1

11 Asset Accumulation Pattern Top 15 1% Asset Accumulation Pattern as a % of AUM for Top-15 AMCs 8% 6% 4% 2% % Axis Birla Sun Life DSP BlackRock Franklin Templeton HDFC ICICI Prudential IDFC Deutsche Kotak Mahindra L&T Reliance SBI Sundaram Tata UTI Associate Distributor as % of AUM Non-Associate Distributor as % of AUM Direct Plan as % of AUM Source: AI, AMCs website. AAUM monthly data pertains to May-15 22/6/215 ICRA Online Limited 11

12 Retail Business Share - Industry Level AUM share (in %) 1% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 2.3% 11.4% Retail Participation 6.3% 5.5% 7.4% 6.9% 14% 12% 1% 8% 6% 4% 2% AUM share (in %) % % Liquid/ Money Market Gilt FMP Other Debt Schemes Equity (inc ELSS) Balanced Retail AUM share (%) - All channels Retail AUM share (%) - Direct Channel (RHS) Source: AI. Category AUM data pertains to May-15. Retail is inclusive of HNI 1. Balanced and Equity Categories command the highest retail participation at the industry level, whereas Liquid/Money Market category is dominated by corporate. 2. Investors in Gilt Fund Category lead the pack in the Direct Channel 22/6/215 ICRA Online Limited 12

13 Retail business share via Direct Channel - Big 5 3% Direct Channel AUM share (in %) - T15 15% Direct Channel AUM share (in %) - B15 25% 2% 15% 1% 5% 12% 9% 6% 3% % Liquid/ Money Market Gilt FMP Other Debt Schemes Equity (inc ELSS) % Liquid/ Money Market Gilt FMP Other Debt Schemes Equity (inc ELSS) HDFC ICICI Prudential Reliance Birla Sun Life UTI HDFC ICICI Prudential Reliance Birla Sun Life UTI Source: AI. Category AUM data pertains to May For B-15 cities, retail customers coming through direct channel preferred UTI AMC across all the fund categories (except for Liquid). UTI was also preferred by investors of T-15 cities dealing in Equity and Liquid fund category via direct channel. 2. For T-15 cities, ICICI Prudential AMC is the preferred AMC for retail customers (of direct channel) dealing in Gilt and Other Debt fund category. HDFC AMC was favored by investors dealing in FMP fund category. 22/6/215 ICRA Online Limited 13

14 Category Wise Change in Market Share - Big 5 Change in BPS Market share chg (m-o-m) HDFC ICICI Pru. Relian ce Birla Sun Life UTI Liquid Equity (RHS) Change in BPS Change in BPS HDFC Market share chg (m-o-m) ICICI Pru. Reliance Birla Sun Life UTI FMP (LHS) Other Debt Change in BPS Source: AI. Category AUM monthly data pertains to May Among the top-5 players, only ICICI Prudential registered marginal increase in market share in equities, while in Liquid fund category, only HDFC managed to raise its market share by 75.5 basis points. 2. Except for UTI, other 4 AMCs registered marginal fall in their market share in Other Debt fund category. 22/6/215 ICRA Online Limited 14

15 Geography wise Analysis AUM share of top-5 regions % share of top 5 AMCs in Maharashtra AUM (In Rs. crore) 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, 43.8% 9.6% 4.7% 7.2% 5.7% Gujarat Others Karnataka New Delhi Maharashtra AUM % share (RHS) 5% 45% 4% 35% 3% 25% 2% 15% 1% 5% % Share (%) % share UTI 1.5 Birla Sun Life 11. Reliance 12.8 ICICI Prudential 13.8 HDFC Source: AI, ICRA Online Research. Data as on May Maharashtra alone accounts for more than 44% of the market share 2. Seven states have corpus between Rs 5, and Rs 1,2, crore 3. The top 15 AMCs hold more than 87% of the market share in Maharashtra with the top 5 alone accounting for over 54% of that 4. The entire distribution is skewed towards one state leaving ample scope for AMCs to increase market share from other States and Union Territories 22/6/215 ICRA Online Limited 15

16 Analytics Group ICRA Online Limited Amol Wakekar / ) Suman Roy / ) 22/6/215 ICRA Online Limited 16