THE FRANCIS FACTOR: THE IMPACT OF POPE FRANCIS ON CATHOLIC VOTERS

Transcription

1 THE FRANCIS FACTOR: THE IMPACT OF POPE FRANCIS ON CATHOLIC VOTERS

2

3 TABLE OF CONTENTS 1. Executive Summary U.S. Catholics and the Pope: Aware and Approving Leading Beyond the Culture Wars Latinos and Economic Policy Laudato Si: Engaging New Partners Other Notable Findings Methodological Appendix Data analysis conducted by Dr. David T. Buckley, Paul Weber Chair of Politics, Science and Religion, University of Louisville. FAITHINPUBLICLIFE.ORG 1

4 1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: Next week, Pope Francis will make his first trip to the United States and become the first pontiff in history to address Congress. Is a pope who wants a welcoming, healing church effective in reaching Catholics? How does a pope who puts the moral dimensions of economic inequality and climate change at the forefront of his papacy shake up the Catholic political narrative? At a time when more than a half dozen Catholics are running for president, many of the nation s most powerful elected officials are Catholic, and Catholic voters in battleground states could prove decisive in the 16 presidential election, will there be a Francis effect on American politics? Faith in Public Life partnered with the Institute for Policy Research & Catholic Studies at The Catholic University of America in Washington for a unique study constructed around a series of survey experiments designed to test the impact of Pope Francis most prominent statements. The findings of the study, conducted by YouGov, demonstrate that the Francis papacy could be particularly important in: n Recalibrating the Catholic conversation in politics beyond the culture wars. n Mobilizing Latino Catholics, particularly around economic inequality. n Engaging new partners in environmental stewardship, particularly frequent religious service attenders and Republicans. The results of this survey reflect data collected by YouGov from a representative sample of Catholics: in a national sample, and in an oversample of 16 battleground states. See the methodological appendix for more details on the study s design. 2

5 2. US CATHOLICS AND THE POPE: AWARE AND APPROVING Pope Francis has enjoyed high levels of approval among U.S. Catholics since his election, and our study confirms this trend. Eighty-three percent of Catholic likely voters had a favorable opinion of Pope Francis, compared to 11% unfavorable. Similarly, when asked whether they think Francis is moving the Catholic Church in the right direction or on the wrong track, Catholic likely voters supported the pope s leadership, by a margin of 82% to18%. These strong approval numbers are paired with high levels of awareness of the pope s activities. Nearly 2 in 3 claimed to follow news about Francis either very or somewhat closely, while over % were aware (before our survey) that the pope is planning to visit the United States. Finally, nearly 3 out of 4 had heard at least a little about the pope s landmark encyclical on ecology and environmental justice, Laudato Si. Over % had heard either some or a lot about the encyclical. Among Catholic voters in ten likely 16 battleground states (FL, OH, VA, PA, CO, IA, WI, MI, NH, NV), these levels of awareness were even higher. Seventy percent claimed to follow news about Francis at least somewhat closely, while over three quarters were aware of Francis upcoming U.S. visit before our survey. Sixty-four percent of these Catholics heard either some or a lot about Laudato Si. Our data show general bipartisan awareness of Pope Francis leadership. Sixty-seven percent of GOP Catholic voters and 68% of Democratic Catholic voters followed news about Francis at least somewhat closely. Seventy percent of GOP Catholic voters and 68% of Democratic Catholic voters were aware of the papal visit to the U.S. before our survey. There was a modest partisan gap in awareness of Laudato Si, with 63% of GOP Catholic voters hearing some or more, compared to 55% of Democratic Catholic voters. However, significant partisan differences emerged in approval of Francis leadership. Only 28% of GOP Catholic voters had a very favorable overall opinion of Francis, compared to 53% among Democratic Catholic voters and 45% among Catholic Independent voters. Twenty percent of Catholic Republican voters said they have an overall unfavorable opinion of the pope, compared to only 3% among Democratic Catholic voters. While in a separate question, on the whole, GOP Catholics thought the pope is leading the Church on the right track, by a 7-% margin, this is significantly less than the 92-8% margin for Democratic Catholic voters. These data, collected shortly after the release of Laudato Si and Francis economic critiques of early July, raise the prospect that some of the bipartisan sheen on Francis leadership is changing. Follow Francis News National Catholic Likely Voters Very Closely Somewhat Closely Not too Closely Not at all Pope Visit Aware Unaware Laudato Si Heard a lot Heard some Heard a little Haven t heard of it Francis Opinion Very favorable.4.4 Mostly favorable Mostly unfavorable 7 Very unfavorable Francis Leadership Right Direction Wrong Track Battleground Catholic Likely Voters FAITHINPUBLICLIFE.ORG 3

6 DEMOCRATS INDEPENDENTS REPUBLICANS NEW BALANCE PARTISAN PAPAL AWARENESS Overall how closely do you follow news about Pope Francis and his statements? 8 7 n Very/Somewhat Closely n Not too/not at all DEMOCRATS INDEPENDENTS REPUBLICANS 31 PARTISAN PAPAL APPROVAL Overall, do you think Pope Francis has been leading the Catholic Church? n In the Right Direction n On the Wrong Track DEMOCRATS INDEPENDENTS REPUBLICANS NEW PARTISAN BALANCE PAPAL AND ELECTIONS APPROVAL In deciding Overall, whom do you to support think Pope in the Francis elections, has Catholics been should leading pay the attention Catholic to... Church? n A range of policy n In the issues Right Direction n A set of non-negotiable n On the Wrong policy Track issues DIFFERENCE NEW BALANCE NON-NEGOTIABLES 8 DEMOCRATS INDEPENDENTS REPUBLICANS NEW BALANCE AND SUPPORT FOR PUBLIC RELIGION Which of the following comes closest to your view: Religious leaders should... n Keep out of political matters n Express views on social and political issues NEW BALANCE DIFFERENCE NON-NEGOTIABLES NEW BALANCE FOR PUBLIC RE Which of the foll to your view: Rel n Keep out of politica n Express views on s NEW BALANCE NEW BALANCE THE CULTURE W Do you agree or following: There between religiou in this country to n Agree n Neither NEW BALANCE NEW BALANCE AND THE CULTURE WAR Do you agree or disagree with the following: There is a culture war between religious and secular people in this country today NEW BALANCE DIFFERENCE - NON-NEGOTIABLES 4

7 3. MOVING PARTISAN BEYOND PAPAL AWARENESS THE CULTURE WARS Overall how closely do you follow news about Pope Francis and his statements? n A range of policy issues In a landmark interview with Jesuit publications published in September 13, Pope Francis insisted the church must find a new 8 n Very/Somewhat Closely n A set of non-negotiable policy issues balance in presenting Catholic teaching n Not to too/not the world: at all 7 8 We cannot insist only on issues 68 related to abortion, gay marriage 7 and 77 the use of contraceptive methods the teaching of the church, for that matter, is clear and I am a son of the church, but it is not necessary to talk about these issues all of the time. The church s pastoral ministry cannot be obsessed with the transmission of a disjointed multitude of doctrines to be imposed insistently. We have to find a new balance Data from this study show that Catholic voters respond to this message. To assess the impact of the pope s call for a new balance, 28 our study divided respondents into two groups at random. Half read a fictionalized news story reporting 23 Francis new balance comments. The other half read a story that, in contrast, emphasized certain non-negotiable priorities for Catholics, notably abortion and gay marriage. After reading DEMOCRATS the stories, INDEPENDENTS participants REPUBLICANS DIFFERENCE were asked a series of questions about the + role of religion in U.S. public life. Results indicate that Catholics responded to the pope s message on several measures. NEW BALANCE NON-NEGOTIABLES First, reading the story about the pope s desire for a new balance in the church s public voice impacted the election priorities of Catholic voters. Those who read PARTISAN the new balance PAPAL APPROVAL story agreed by a 77-23% margin that when deciding whom to support in PARTISAN PAPAL elections, AWARENESS Catholics should pay attention to a range NEW of BALANCE policy issues AND in ELECTIONS contrast to a set of NEW non-negotiable BALANCE issues. AND SUPPORT Overall, do you think Pope Francis has Those who read Overall how the closely story do stressing you follow an agenda news of non-negotiables In deciding still preferred whom to evaluate support in candidates the elections, a FOR range PUBLIC of issues, RELIGION been leading the Catholic Church? but by a narrower about Pope margin Francis (72-28%) and his statements? than those who heard from the Catholics pope. should pay attention to... Which of the following comes closest n In the Right Direction n A range of policy issues to your view: Religious leaders should... n On the Wrong Track 8 n Very/Somewhat Closely n A set of non-negotiable policy issues n Keep out of political matters Next, we asked respondents how much attention, on a scale from 1-, they thought that religious leaders should give to seven n Not too/not at all 9 n Express views on social and political issues 7 policy issues: abortion, immigration, international 92 8 affairs, gay marriage, climate change, poverty and religious liberty. Catholic 68 voters who read about the pope s 8 new balance 7 message gave more equal moral weight to the diverse policy issues. Those who heard the pope s message averaged a 2.3-point 77 7 gap between each issue, while those who heard the message about nonnegotiables averaged a wider 2.6-point gap between issues In addition to testing the impact of the pope s message on the priorities of Catholic voters, the study examined the impact of hearing 36 31from Pope Francis on moving 31 voters beyond the culture wars. Fifty-nine percent of Catholics who read the new balance story agreed that there was a culture war between religious and secular people in America 28 today, compared to % among those who read the alternative story. 23 DEMOCRATS Finally, INDEPENDENTS reading about REPUBLICANS DIFFERENCE DIFFERENCE Pope Francis calls for a new balance + 23 made Catholic voters more supportive NEW BALANCE of religious leaders NON-NEGOTIABLES speaking out in public life. Catholic voters who read the pope s NEW message BALANCE were more NON-NEGOTIABLES 8 supportive of religious leaders expressing their views on social and political questions (54-46% in favor) than those who heard the alternative message (48-52% in favor). DEMOCRATS INDEPENDENTS REPUBLICANS NEW BALANCE AND ELECTIONS In deciding whom to support in the elections, Catholics should pay attention to... PARTISAN PAPAL NEW BALANCE APPROVAL AND ELECTIONS Overall, do In you deciding think Pope whom Francis to support has in the elections, been leading Catholics the Catholic should Church? pay attention to... n In the n Right A range Direction of policy issues n On the n Wrong A set of Track non-negotiable policy issues DIFFERENCE NEW BALANCE NON-NEGOTIABLES 8 DEMOCRATS INDEPENDENTS REPUBLICANS NEW BALANCE AND SUPPORT FOR PUBLIC RELIGION Which of the following comes closest to your view: Religious leaders should... n Keep out of political matters n Express views on social and political issues NEW BALANCE DIFFERENCE NON-NEGOTIABLES NEW BALANCE AND THE CULTURE WAR Do you agree or disagree with the following: There is a culture war between religious and secular people in this country today NEW BALANCE DIFFERENCE - NON-NEGOTIABLES FAITHINPUBLICLIFE.ORG 5

8 4. LATINO VOTERS: ENTHUSIASTIC AND ECONOMICALLY ENGAGED Latino Catholics make up a growing portion of the American Catholic community and will increasingly be the face of the church. Data show that Latino Catholic voters responded to Pope Francis in unique ways, particularly his critiques of unregulated capitalism. Latino Catholics were among the most enthusiastic demographics in our national sample in their support of Pope Francis. Eightyfour percent had a favorable opinion of the first pope from South America, compared to 75% among white, non-latino Catholics. Ninety percent of Latino Catholics agreed that Pope Francis is leading the Catholic Church in the right direction, compared to 77% among white Catholics. Role of Gov t National Latino Catholic Much Larger National White Catholic Somewhat Larger Total Larger No Change Total Smaller Somewhat Smaller Much Smaller Gov't Reduce Rich-Poor Gap Strongly Agree Agree Total Agree Neither Ag nor Disag Total Disagree Disagree Strongly Disagree Politicians reduce poverty/homelessness Strongly Agree Agree Total Agree Neither Ag nor Disag Total Disagree Disagree Strongly Disagree Immigration Border Security Path to Citizenship Both Equal OVERALL OPINION OF POPE FRANCIS n Favorable n Not sure n Unfavorable LATINO CATHOLICS NON-LATINO WHITE CATHOLICS PAPAL DIRECTION Overall, do you think Pope Francis has been leading the Catholic Church? n In the right direction n On the wrong track LATINO CATHOLICS NON-LATINO WHITE CATHOLICS 6

9 At the same time, Latino Catholics were modestly less aware of the pope s leadership than white Catholics. Only 49% of Latino Catholics were aware of the pope s upcoming US visit, compared to 57% among white Catholics. Only 52% of Latino Catholics followed news about Francis somewhat or very closely, compared to 56% among white Catholics. And 35% of Latino Catholics hadn t heard of the pope s climate encyclical, compared to % among white Catholics. FRANCIS ble 5.4 O LICS Latino Catholics showed distinctly liberal political priorities, particularly when it comes to economic policy. Forty-nine percent of Latino Catholics preferred a somewhat or much larger government that provides more services, compared to 22% among white, non-latino Catholics. Sixty-four percent of Latino Catholics agreed that government should do more to narrow the gap between rich and poor, compared to % among white Catholics. Seventy-seven percent agreed that politicians should prioritize reducing poverty and homelessness, compared to 65% among white Catholics. And 7% of Latino Catholics agreed that a path to citizenship should at least be an equal priority in immigration reform, compared to 41% among white, non-latinos. ECONOMICS AND NON-LATINO WHITES Our study further demonstrates that Latino Catholics are particularly responsive to Francis statements about economic policy. Do you agree/disagree with the following: Unregulated capitalism poses a significant To test the impact challenge of the to protecting pope s messages human about life and what dignity. he calls an economy of exclusion and inequality, we conducted a second experiment, n Agree n again Neither dividing n Disagree our subjects at random. Half read a news article referencing Francis criticism of certain forms of unregulated capitalism in his Apostolic Exhortation, Evangelii Gaudium (The Joy of the Gospel), including his often-quoted observation 7 that Such an economy kills. The other half read a news story reporting conservative religious defenses of market capitalism and critiques of government regulation. Follow-up questions showed that Pope Francis message had an effect on Latino Catholic voters. Fifty-eight percent of Latino Catholics who read about the pope s 37 critiques of unfettered markets agreed that unregulated capitalism poses a challenge to human life and dignity, in contrast to 42% of Latino Catholics who read the alternative message. And 69% of Latino Catholics who read about the pope s message agreed 21 that income inequality is a significant moral issue, compared to 57% of Latino Catholics who read the alternative message. Perhaps most strikingly, these substantial effects among Latino Catholics were not mirrored among non-latino whites, who showed no overall responsiveness to the pope s messages on economic policy. POPE FRANCIS ncis Church? ng track O LICS ECONOMICS OVERALL AND OPINION LATINOS OF POPE FRANCIS Do you n Favorable agree/disagree n Not sure with n Unfavorable the following: Unregulated capitalism poses a significant challenge to protecting human life and dignity LATINO NON-LATINO POPE CATHOLICS FRANCIS WHITE CATHOLICS PAPAL DIRECTION Overall, do you think Pope Francis has been leading the Catholic Church? n In the right direction n On the wrong track ECONOMICS AND NON-LATINO WHITES Do you agree/disagree with the following: Unregulated capitalism poses a significant challenge to protecting human life and dignity POPE FRANCIS ECONOMICS AND LATINOS Do you agree/disagree with the following: Unregulated capitalism poses a significant challenge to protecting human life and dignity FAITHINPUBLICLIFE.ORG 7

10 5. LAUDATO SI: REACHING NEW PARTNERS The release of Laudato Si -- the pope s encyclical about integral ecology and the shared obligation we have to be stewards of our environment -- was a watershed moment in the church. The encyclical builds on earlier teachings of John Paul II and Benedict XVI but is the first encyclical in church history exclusively devoted to this topic. The long-term effects of the encyclical will require future analysis. However, data from this study indicate that a solid majority of American Catholics have heard at least a little about the encyclical. Evidence demonstrates that the pope s leadership on this issue has the potential to reach new partners in work against climate change: weekly religious service attenders and Republicans. This summer, Pope Francis released an encyclical letter addressing global warming. Before taking this survey, how aware were you about this Papal Encyclical? (Results for Likely Voters) Heard a Lot Heard Some Heard a Little National Catholic Catholic, Battleground States High Attenders Low Attenders Haven t Heard of It Catholics showed diverse awareness of Laudato Si. At the national level, 55% had heard some or a lot about the encyclical, while only 26% had not heard of it at all. Awareness levels were higher among Catholic voters in likely 16 battleground states, where 64% had heard some or a lot and only 17% had not heard of it at all. Awareness was also higher among those who most regularly participate in religious services. Among those who attend weekly or more, 7% had heard some or a lot about the encyclical, compared to only 12% who had not heard of it at all. Among infrequent attenders, in contrast, only half had heard some or a lot, while % had not heard of it at all. Data show that some Catholics are hearing about climate change not only from the Pope, but also from their local religious leaders. Twenty-five percent of national Catholic voters have heard a local religious leader speak about climate change. This number increases to 31% among Catholic voters in battleground states, and, most significantly, to 41% among weekly attenders. This last result is particularly intriguing, as our study was in the field less than a month after the English-language release of Laudato Si. Low attenders had few (if any) opportunities for the encyclical to impact what they heard from the pulpit. Have you ever heard a leader in your religious community speak about climate change or protecting the environment? Yes No Don t Attend Not Sure National Catholic Catholic, Battleground States High Attenders Low Attenders

11 n To test the response of Catholic voters to the pope s encyclical, this study Agree n included Neither n a third Disagree experiment, which randomly exposed some participants to a news story about Pope Francis encyclical. Half of the subjects read a news article about Laudato Si, while half read a story that contained a similar call to action, but from unidentified climate experts. This design pinpoints portions of 8 the Catholic population who may find the pope more persuasive than secular 84 environmental activists. 75 Catholic voters who attend services weekly or more were particularly responsive to the pope s message. Those who read about Laudato Si were more likely to agree that human activities are responsible for climate 12 change (54%) 18 than those who received 4 3 the alternative message (41%). Weekly attenders were also more likely to agree that humans have a moral duty to protect the environment after reading about Laudato Si (84%) than after reading about the POPE unidentified FRANCIS climate SECULAR experts (75%). And finally, weekly attenders were more likely to agree that the U.S. government should take action to address climate change after reading about LAUDATO Laudato Si SI (59%) AND than WEEKLY after reading ATTENDERS from the generic climate experts LAUDATO (%). SI AND WEEKLY ATTENDERS The pope s environmental message had similar effects among Catholic Humans LAUDATO Republicans. have SI AND a Catholic moral WEEKLY duty Republicans to ATTENDERS Humans have a moral duty to protect protect who read about Laudato the Si environment. the were more likely to agree that human activities are responsible Do environment. you for climate believe change increases (37%) in the than Earth s those temperature who received the over the last century are due more to... alternative n Agree message n Neither (27%), n Disagree and to agree that humans have a moral duty n Agree to protect n Neither environment n Disagree (77%) than those who read the n story featuring generic climate experts (7%). It is worth noting that differences Human Activities n were more No modest Opinion n (and Natural statistically Change insignificant) when it came to agreeing that the U.S. government needs to take action: 33% among those who read about Laudato Si, and % among 8 those who read the alternative message This evidence indicates that the pope s leadership on climate change is likely to be most 39 effective among segments of the population more generally skeptical of climate change. In contrast, reading about 12Laudato Si did not have an effect on more liberal Catholics, who 4 were starting 3from a very liberal environmental baseline and more 4 trusting of a 3generic climate expert. Ninety percent POPE of FRANCIS Catholic Democrats, SECULAR for example, agreed that humans have POPE a FRANCIS moral 6 16 duty to SECULAR protect the environment when hearing from the generic climate change experts. POPE FRANCIS SECULAR LAUDATO SI AND WEEKLY ATTENDERS LAUDATO SI AND WEEKLY ATTENDERS Do Humans you believe have a increases moral duty in to the protect Earth s temperature over the environment. the last century are due more to... n Human Agree Activities n n Neither No n Disagree Opinion n Natural Change POPE FRANCIS SECULAR LAUDATO SI AND WEEKLY DEMOCRATS ATTENDERS Do you agree believe or increases disagree in with the the Earth s following: temperature Humans over the last have century a moral are duty due to more protect to... the environment n Agree Human Activities n Neither n No Disagree Opinion n Natural Change POPE FRANCIS SECULAR POPE FRANCIS SECULAR LAUDATO SI SI AND REPUBLICANS DEMOCRATS Humans have a moral duty to protect the environment Humans have moral duty to protect the environment LAUDATO SI AND WEEKLY ATTENDERS Humans have a moral duty to protect the environment. LAUDATO SI AND WEEKLY ATTENDERS LAUDATO SI AND DEMOCRATS Do you believe increases in the Earth s temperature over Do you the agree last century or disagree are due with more the to... following: Humans have a moral duty to protect the environment n Human Activities n No Opinion n Natural Change POPE FRANCIS SECULAR 1 POPE FRANCIS SECULAR LAUDATO LAUDATO SI SI AND DEMOCRATS REPUBLICANS Do Do you you agree agree or or disagree disagree with with the the following: following: Humans Humans have have a moral moral duty duty to to protect protect the the environment environment Agree Neither Disagree POPE FRANCIS 19 SECULAR 3 9 POPE FRANCIS SECULAR LAUDATO SI AND REPUBLICANS Humans have a moral duty to protect the environment FAITHINPUBLICLIFE.ORG 9

12 6. OTHER NOTABLE FINDINGS Socioeconomic Diversity Catholics reporting annual family income over $K were significantly more responsive to Francis call to seek a new balance in public life. Eigthy-four percent of those who read about Francis message thought that Catholics should evaluate political candidates on a range of policy issues, compared to only 63% of those who read the story advocating a smaller set of nonnegotiable issues. But Catholics reporting annual family income under $K did not show significant responses to the same experiment. Seventy-eight percent who read the story about Francis preferred to consider a range of policy issues, and a nearly identical 78% gave the same response after reading the article advocating a non-negotiable hierarchy of issues. NEW BALANCE AND UPPER INCOME VOTERS Indeciding whom to support in elections, Catholics should pay attention to... n A range of policy issues n A set of non-negotiable policy issues 8 84 NEW BALANCE AND UPPER 63 INCOME VOTERS Indeciding whom to support in elections, Catholics should pay attention 37 to... n A range of policy 16 issues n A set NEW of non-negotiable BALANCE policy issues NON- NEGOTIABLES NEW BALANCE AND MIDDLE/LOWER INCOME VOTERS In deciding whom to support in elections, Catholics should pay attention to... n A range of policy issues n A set of non-negotiable policy issues 8 NEW BALANCE 78 AND 78 MIDDLE/LOWER INCOME VOTERS In deciding whom to support in elections, Catholics should pay attention to n A range of policy issues n A set NEW of non-negotiable BALANCE NON- policy NEGOTIABLES issues Generational Divides LAUDATO SI AND CATHOLICS 37 OVER 65 LAUDATO SI AND CATHOLICS UNDER 35 Do you agree 16or disagree with the following: Humans have a moral duty to protect the environment. Catholic voters over the age of 65 were responsive to both the new balance and Laudato Si experiments. Eighty-five percent of older Catholics who read about Laudato Si agreed that humans have a moral duty to protect the environment, compared to 76% Humans have a moral duty to protect the environment. of those who NEW read BALANCE the message NON- NEGOTIABLES from climate experts. However, there were NEW few BALANCE significant NON- NEGOTIABLES results on those experiments among n Agree n Neither n Disagree those under the age of 35. Eigthy-one percent of younger Catholics who read about Laudato Si agreed that humans have a moral duty to protect the environment; the percentage was nearly identical among those who read the message from climate experts LAUDATO SI AND CATHOLICS OVER 65 LAUDATO SI AND CATHOLICS UNDER 35 Do you agree 14 or disagree with the following: Do you agree or disagree with Humans have a moral duty to protect the environment the following: Humans have a moral duty to protect the environment. POPE FRANCIS SECULAR POPE FRANCIS SECULAR POPE FRANCIS SECULAR POPE FRANCIS SECULAR

13 Ideological Variation Political ideology impacted one s response to the pope s economic message. Liberal and moderate Catholic voters who heard the pope s message were more likely to agree (65%) that unregulated capitalism poses a challenge to human life and dignity than were those who heard the alternative message (49%). However, the pope s message had the exact opposite effect among conservatives. Among those who read the pope s critique that such an economy kills, 25% agreed that unregulated capitalism poses a challenge to human dignity, in contrast to the 32% of conservatives who agreed with the statement after reading the alternative message. ATIVES ing: nt ignity FRANCIS, ECONOMICS AND NON-CONSERVATIVES Unregulated capitalism poses a significant challenge to protecting human life and dignity FRANCIS, ECONOMICS AND CONSERVATIVES Unregulated capitalism poses a significant challenge to protecting human life and dignity FRANCIS, EC Do you agree Unregulated c challenge to p n Agree n Neith POPE FRANCIS POPE FRANCIS POPE FR FAITHINPUBLICLIFE.ORG 11

14 7. METHODOLOGICAL APPENDIX Survey Administration YouGov administered the survey online, which allowed for subjects to read the news stories that constituted the experimental variation within our study. Data was collected from July 22, 15 to July 31, 15, and the study took respondents approximately 12 minutes to complete. Survey Analysis Survey analysis was conducted by Dr. David T. Buckley of the University of Louisville, Assistant Professor of Political Science and Paul Weber Chair in Politics, Science and Religion. Dr. Buckley s research focuses on religion and politics, and in particular on the relationship between religious movements and democracy. Experimental Variation For each of the three experiments, respondents were independently assigned to either read the news story covering an actual statement of Pope Francis, or to read an alternative story. Major topline questions were asked before the administration of any experimental variation. After reading each story, a series of questions tested the impact of that story. The following are the Pope Francis and Alternative stories for each experiment. Sampling YouGov interviewed 1121 respondents who were then matched down to a sample of to produce the final general population dataset. The respondents were matched to a sampling frame on gender, age, race, education, ideology, importance of religion and political interest. The frame was constructed by stratified sampling from the full American Community Survey (ACS) sample subset on Catholics with selection within strata by weighted sampling with replacements (using the person weights on the public use file). Data on religious affiliation and importance of religion were then matched to this frame from the 7 Pew Religious Life Survey. The sampling frame for the oversample was constructed by subsetting the existing sample frame to registered voters in battleground states (FL, OH, VA, PA, CO, IA, WI, MI, NH, NV). Respondents who indicated that they were at least somewhat likely to vote in the 16 election were matched to this sampling frame on gender, age, race, education, ideology, importance of religion and political interest. 12

15 FAITHINPUBLICLIFE.ORG 13

16