Career Moves Expectations and Destinations of NSW Senior Secondary Students. Gary N. Marks Catherine Underwood Sheldon Rothman Justin Brown

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1 Career Moves Expectations and Destinations of NSW Senior Secondary Students Gary N. Marks Catherine Underwood Sheldon Rothman Justin Brown Australian Council for Educational Research September 2011

2 Title: Career Moves: Expectations and Destinations of New South Wales Senior Secondary Students Author: Garry N. Marks, Catherine Underwood, Sheldon Rothman, Justin Brown Corporate Author: Australian Council for Educational Research ISBN: State of New South Wales and the NSW Board of Vocational Education and Training This report is copyright and may not be reproduced in full or part without the prior written permission of the copyright holders. Disclaimer: All rights reserved. The work may not be reproduced for commercial purposes. Although the work is copyright, permission is granted to teachers or trainers to make photocopies or other duplication for use within their own agencies or in workplace training settings for educational purpose. The views expressed in this work are not necessarily those of NSW Board of Vocational Education and Training or the Australian Council for Education Research nor do they represent the policies of either the Board or the Council. Published by the NSW Board of Vocational Education and Training Street Address Level 5, 35 Bridge Street Sydney NSW 2000 T F Postal Address GPO Box 33 Sydney NSW 2001 Internet Address: Copies of the report: This publication can be downloaded from BVET website at

3 Acknowledgement We would like to acknowledge the NSW Board of Vocational Education and Training for commissioning and funding the study. We would also like to acknowledge the staff of the Department of Education and Communities who guided our work and also the representatives from the government and non government school sectors and TAFE NSW who provided important input to the design and implementation of the study. We would like to acknowledge the very helpful cooperation of the New South Wales Board of Studies in providing the sampling frame and other data without which this study could not have been undertaken. The student questionnaire used in this study was adapted from the On Track student questionnaire. We thank the Victorian Department of Education and Early Childhood Development for their permission to use the questionnaire.

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5 Contents Executive Summary... xi Main Activity Post-School... xi Expectations of Students, Parents, Teachers and Destinations... xi Expected Occupations and Careers... xii Preparation for post school study and work... xii 1. Introduction Post-School Educational and Work Destinations... 3 Educational Status... 3 Work Status... 8 Main Activity Post-School Study Expectations for Students, their Parents and their Schools Teachers Career Expectations Major Occupation Groups Sub-Major Occupation Groups Schools and Career Paths Career Guidance Early School Leaving Student Performance ATAR Distribution and Bivariate Relationships Accounting for ATAR Performance Influences on ATAR Between-School Differences in ATAR School Effects on ATAR Entrance to University School Students Expected ATAR Influences on Choice of Course Highest Year-Level Expected before Leaving School Reasons for Leaving School Plans for Further Study Apprentices and Trainees Qualification Undertaken University, TAFE and other Students Qualification Undertaken Young People Not in Study or Training Employment Looking for Work Not in Full-time Education or Work Teachers v -

6 14. Parent satisfaction and expectations Preparation for post-school options Type of education or training parents would like young person to complete Parents Occupational Expectations Discussion References Appendix Population and Sample Population The Sample Frame The Achieved Sample Measures and Analyses vi-

7 Tables Table 2-1: Educational status by Year 12 completion status... 4 Table 2-2: Educational status by gender... 4 Table 2-3: Educational status by region... 5 Table 2-4: Educational status by school sector... 6 Table 2-5: Educational status by socioeconomic quartile... 7 Table 2-6: Educational Status by work status... 8 Table 2-7: Work status by Year 12 completion status... 8 Table 2-8: Work status by gender... 9 Table 2-9: Work status by region... 9 Table 2-10: Work status by school sector Table 2-11: Work status by socioeconomic quartile Table 2-12: Main activity by Year 12 completion status Table 2-13: Main activity by gender Table 2-14: Main activity by region Table 2-15: Main activity by school sector Table 2-16: Main activity in 2010 by socioeconomic quartile Table 4-1: Expected occupation (major occupation group) by school completion status Table 4-2: Expected occupation (major occupation group) by gender Table 4-3: Expected occupation (major occupation group) by region Table 4-4: Expected occupation (major occupation group) by socioeconomic quartile Table 4-5: Most common expected occupation (sub-major group) by gender Table 5-1: ATAR Band by SES Quartile Table 5-2: Correlation of ATAR with various measures of socioeconomic background Table 5-3: Correlation of ATAR with Year 10 School Certificate Scores Table 5-4: Influences on ATAR Table 5-5: Random effects model for ATAR Table 5-6: Fixed effects model for schools on ATAR Table 5-7: Percentage at University by SES Quartile within School Certificate Quartile Table 5-8: Percentage at University by SES Quartile within ATAR Band Table 6-1: Students year level at school in Table 6-2: Highest year-level expected Table 6-3: Demographic characteristics of when students expect to leave school Table 6-4: Main reason given for leaving school before finishing Year Table 6-5: Type of study students plan to do on completion of Year 12 by region vii -

8 Table 7-1: Level of qualification by school completion status Table 7-2: How obtained apprenticeship or traineeship by school completion status Table 8-1: Level of qualification by school completion status Table 8-2: Field of qualification, Year 12 completers Table 8-3: Study load, Year 12 completers in full-time or part-time study Table 9-1: Main reason for not studying by school completion status Table 9-2: Likelihood of future study, by school completion status Table 10-1: In paid employment, by completion status Table 10-2: In paid employment by region Table 10-3: paid work by socioeconomic quartile Table 10-4: More than one job by region Table 10-5: More than one job by socioeconomic quartile Table 10-6: Hours worked per week by school completion status Table 10-7: Type of job like as a career by school completion status and gender Table 11-1: Looking for work (including another job) by school completion status and region Table 11-2: Looking for work (including another job) by school completion status and socioeconomic quartile Table 11-3: Looking for work for full-time or part-time work by region Table 11-4: Looking for work for full-time or part-time work by socioeconomic quartile Table 12-1: Current main activity for Not in Full-time Education or Work Table 13-1: Position held at your school Table 13-2 Proportion of teachers ranking the importance of selected aspects of their roles Table 13-3: Teachers anticipated post school destination of Year 12 students Table 13-4: Teachers anticipated post school destination of Year 12 students in the top 25% achievement group Table 13-5: Teachers anticipated post school destination of Year 12 students in the bottom 25% achievement group Table 13-6: Proportion of students with problematic post school pathways Table 14-1: Education and training interviewed parent and reported other parent or guardian would like their child to complete by parent qualification Table 17-1: Distribution of sample frame by year level Table 17-2: Distribution of Region and Population by regionr Table 17-3: Distribution of sample frame and population by school sector Table 17-4: Classification of the sample by school completion status Table 17-5: Grouped NSW DET regions and distribution Table 17-6: Sample contact details (student) Table 17-7: Sample contact details by cohort (students) Table 17-8: Sample contact details (parent) Table 17-9: Sample contact details by cohort (parents) Table 17-10: Aggregation of the NSW DET regions viii-

9 Figures Figure 3-1: University and vocational expectations and 2010 study by gender Figure 3-2: University and vocational expectations and 2010 study, by region Figure 3-3: University and vocational expectations and 2010 study by school sector Figure 3-4: University and vocational expectations and 2010 study by socioeconomic quartile Figure 4-1: Expected occupation (major occupation group) Figure 4-2: Most common expected occupation (sub-major group) Figure 4-3: Expected occupation (sub-major group) by school completion status Figure 4-4: Expected occupation (sub-major group) by gender Figure 4-5: Expected occupation (sub-major group) by gender by socioeconomic quartile Figure 4-6: Respondents perceptions of whether school courses prepared them for expected occupation at age 30, by ANZSCO major occupation group Figure 4-7: Proportion of students who had been given specific career advice while at school by sector Figure 4-8: Proportion of students who have found out about future careers or types of work by sector Figure 4-9: Proportion of students who had been given specific careers advice while at school by region Figure 4-10: Proportion of students who have found out about future careers or types of work by region Figure 4-11: Respondents first and other reasons for leaving school before completing year 12, by gender Figure 5-1: Distribution of achieved ATAR (Sample) Figure 5-2 Mean ATAR (and 95 per cent confidence limits) by gender Figure 5-3: Mean ATAR (and 95 per cent confidence limits) by region Figure 5-4: Mean ATAR (and 95 per cent confidence limits for students) by school sector Figure 5-5: Mean ATAR (and 95 per cent confidence limits for students) by socioeconomic quartile Figure 5-6: Plot of the relationship between ATAR and Socioeconomic background Figure 5-7: Predicted Probability of University Entrance by Socioeconomic background for students with average School Certificate Marks Figure 5-8: Predicted Probability of University Entrance by School Certificate Score for students from average socioeconomic backgrounds Figure 5-9: Predicted Probability of University Entrance by Socioeconomic background for students with high School Certificate Marks Figure 5-10: Predicted Probability of University Entrance by School Certificate Score for students from very low socioeconomic backgrounds (5 th percentile) Figure 6-1: Influences on choice of course Figure 6-2: Influences on choice of course at school, males Figure 6-3: Influences on choice of course at school, females Figure 6-4: Reasons students decided to stay at school to complete Year ix -

10 Figure 6-5: Reasons why students decided to stay on at school to complete Year 12, by gender Figure 6-6: Reasons students had considered leaving school before completing Year 12, by school sector Figure 6-7: Reasons why students had considered leaving school before completing Year 12, by socioeconomic quartile Figure 6-8: Type of study students plan to do on completion of Year Figure 6-9: Type of study students plan to do on completion of Year 12, by gender Figure 6-10: Type of study students plan to do on completion of Year 12 by socioeconomic quartile and gender Figure 6-11: Type of study students plan to do on completion of Year 12 by school sector Figure 7-1: How obtained apprenticeship or traineeship among Year 12 completers, by socioeconomic quartile Figure 8-1: Qualification Type for Year 12 completers, by socioeconomic quartile Figure 8-2: Field of Study, Year 12 completers Figure 9-1: Main reason for not studying by school completion status, by Year 12 completion and socioeconomic quartile Figure 10-1: Full-time and part-time work by school completion status and SES quartile Figure 10-2: Is job the type of job you would like as a career by school completion status and SES-quartile Figure 13-1: How important are the following in your role as a teacher Figure 13-2: How well prepare are students at school Figure 13-3: Extent how true each reason for problematic post-school pathways Figure 13-4: How strongly teachers agree or disagree about students at their school Figure 14-1: Extent to which parents felt their child s school had prepared them well for once they had left school Figure 14-2: Extent to which parents felt satisfied with their child s school Figure 13-3: Education and training interviewed parent would like their child to complete Figure 14-4: Education and training other parent or guardian would like their child to complete Figure 14-5: Highest post school qualification completed by interviewed parent and other parent or guardian. 93 -x-

11 Executive Summary The purpose of the project is to examine senior New South Wales students expected educational and occupational pathways. It specifically analysed the post-school destinations of both Year 12 completers and early school leavers (or school non-completers) in the first year after leaving school and the educational and occupational expectations of students still at school. The expectations of university and vocational post-school study or training among students at school are compared to the expectations of their parents and teachers. Students expectations are also compared to the actual participation at university and VET of the generally older cohort of school leavers. Students Australian Tertiary Admission Rank (ATAR) scores are analysed among students who gained an ATAR score. The report also documents students expected occupations at age 30. Other aspects of the school-to-work transition analysed in this report include: influences on course selection, early school leaving, plans for further study, course level and field of study among those in post-school study or training, employment, unemployment and the main activities of young people not in full-time work education or work. The report documents many aspects of the school-to-work transition by gender, region, school sector and socioeconomic background. The report is based on data obtained from a representative survey conducted in late 2010 of approximately 6,100 NSW students who were in Years 10, 11 and 12 in The data also include information from parents (from one in three families) and teachers and principals at the sampled schools. Some of the main findings from this first largely descriptive report are: Main Activity Post-School The main activities of Year 12 completers were full-time university study (46%), full time work (22%) which includes apprentices and trainees, part-time work (14%), full-time vocational study at a TAFE (11%) and unemployment (5%). The main activities of Year 12 non-completers were full time work (45%), part-time work (19%), full-time vocational study at a TAFE (17%) and unemployment (14%). (Note that the non-completer group is smaller, so there the estimates are less precise, or statistically speaking are associated with wider confidence limits). Expectations of Students, Parents, Teachers and Destinations At the aggregate level, students and their parents have similar expectations for university study (see figure below). Teacher expectations for university study are substantially lower and the actual level of university participation (among school leavers) falls somewhere in between teachers and parents expectations. At the aggregate level, much lower percentages of students, their parents and teachers expect them to be pursing vocational study or training than university study. Expectations of vocational education and training are higher among students than their parents. Teachers tend to show a similar level of expectations for vocational education to that of the students parents. Students expectations for future vocational education or training are fairly close to the actual level of participation among school leavers. -xi-

12 Career Moves Expectations and Destinations of NSW Senior Secondary Students 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% University VET At School Students At School Parents At School Teachers School Leavers Expected Occupations and Careers Over 50 per cent of students expect to be in a professional job at age 30. The next most frequently cited occupational groups are technicians and trade workers (11%), community and personal service work (10%) and managers (5%). Nearly, 20 per cent did not have an expected occupation. The most popular future careers among females are teaching (13%), architecture and town planning (5%), medicine (4%), other health professionals (4%) and social welfare professionals (4%). Among males, the most common expected future careers are in engineering (7%), defence force, firemen and police (6%), teaching (5%) and architecture and town planning (4%). Preparation for post school study and work Nearly 80% of students agreed that their school adequately prepared them for their future career. This level of agreement was highest among students orientated to professional jobs but was still generally high for students expecting to be in non-professional jobs. A majority of students indicated that while at school they received specific career advice on finding what jobs are suitable, preparing a job application, preparing for a job interview and developing a plan for future study and work. About 60 per cent reported they discussed their career plans with an adviser and a high proportion had attended an information session about university study. Over 80 per cent had read information about different types of study or work. Eighty-three per cent of teachers indicate that their school prepared students (prepared plus well prepared) to join the workforce: the figures for other aspects of post-school life were: 79 per cent for life as an adult, 83 per cent for successful careers, 75 per cent to cope with university study, 89 per cent to cope with vocational study and 87 per cent to become responsible citizens. -xii-

13 Non Completion of Year 12 Approximately 12 per cent had left school without competing Year 12. A much higher proportion of males did not complete school (16%) than females (9%). About 50 per cent of boys said the main reason for leaving school was for work and career. Among girls, nearly 40 per cent indicated not liking school was the main reason. These were the two most frequently cited reasons among both sexes. Only 24 per cent of girls left school for work related reasons compared to 50 per cent of boys. Among male school leavers who said they left for work related reasons, 96 per cent were working or studying for a qualification. Student Performance (ATAR) There was only a small gender difference favouring girls in the Australian Tertiary Admissions Rank (ATAR), but there were larger regional, school sector and socioeconomic differences. For example, the mean ATARs of students that attended government, Catholic and independent schools were 65, 75 and 80. Mean ATAR varied by socioeconomic quartile but the relationship between socioeconomic background and ATAR is best described as moderate with a correlation of around 0.3. This means that socioeconomic background, measured as a combination of the occupational status and education of the students parents, accounts for only 9 per cent of the variation in ATAR score. The weakness of the relationship is apparent graphically with substantial proportions of students from higher socioeconomic backgrounds with relative low ATAR scores and viceversa. About 30 per cent of the variation in ATAR scores is between schools and 70 per cent is between students within schools. The between-school variation declines to around 23 per cent when controlling for socioeconomic differences. About 60 per cent of the impact of socioeconomic background on student performance is unrelated to schools. Choice of Courses Students likes and interests are the most important influence on their choice of courses at school, followed by relevance to their expected career, maximising their ATAR score, and advice from their parents and teachers. In their view, career advisors had the least influence. Expectations for School Completion and Post-school Study Nearly all students (98-99%) still at school in 2010 expected to complete school (HSC). Among those who considered leaving school early but decided to continue with school, the overwhelming reason for them continuing with school was they needed to complete Year 12 for their career. Of those still at school in 2010, 96 per cent planned to do post-school study or training. Nearly 70 per cent intended to go to university, 20 per cent to a TAFE college and 4 per cent planned to obtain an apprenticeship. Females are more likely to expect to go to university and much less likely to plan to pursue an apprenticeship. - xiii -

14 Career Moves Expectations and Destinations of NSW Senior Secondary Students The gender, regional, school sector and socioeconomic differences in post-school study expectations among students at school are similar to the observed differences among school leavers (completers and non-completers). Apprentices and Trainees Of school leavers in apprenticeships and traineeships over 70 per cent are pursing Certificate III or IV courses and an additional 4 per cent in VET Diploma courses. There were not substantial differences in VET course qualification level between school completers and noncompleters. About a third of apprentices and trainees obtained their position by responding to a newspaper or online advertisement. A further 30% obtained their training position through family or friends. About 10 per cent obtained the position through their VET-in-school work placement employer. School completers were more likely to obtain their apprenticeship or traineeship through responding to a newspaper or online advertisement and non-completers through family or friends. University and TAFE Students About three quarters of Year 12 completers in post school study were in Bachelor degree courses. About 70% of non-completers in post school study were enrolled in higher level TAFE courses (certificate III, IV, Diploma and Advanced Diploma courses). The most popular field of post-school study was Management and Commerce (17%) followed by Society and Culture (15%), Health (14%) Creative Arts (13%), Natural and Physical Sciences (10%), Education (9%) and Engineering (8%). Ninety-five per cent enrolled in a bachelor degree were studying full-time and 87% of those enrolled in TAFE diplomas were studying full-time. Not in Post-school Study or Training About a third of Year 12 completers not in post-school study were not studying because they wanted to take a gap year. The next most cited reason was the desire to earn money. Noncompleters not in post-school study most frequently cited wanted to earn money followed by don t like studying. About 90 per of completers and 85 per cent of non-completers not in post-school study, indicated it was extremely likely or somewhat likely they would pursue post-school study within the next 2 years. Of those not in full-time education or work, substantial percentages were engaged in part-time work: 46 and 62 per cent of male and female Year 12 completers and 42 and 54 per cent of male and female non-completers. -xiv-

15 1. Introduction The school to work transition is arguably the most important transition people experience in their lives. The endpoint of that transition largely determines the type of work they pursue as an adult and the earnings trajectories associated with that type of work. An unsuccessful transition could mean that the person spends a considerable amount of time unemployed, out of the labour force or working in a succession of unskilled jobs leading to disengagement from the work force (Lamb, 1994; Marks, 2005, 2006). It could be argued that early school leaving is costly to the community as well as to the individual, through the provision of unemployment benefits and other forms of social security and the reduction to government revenue through lower waged part-time and unskilled work. If taken over a long enough period, the estimated costs of unsuccessful transitions can be in the vicinity of tens of billions of dollars (Business Council of Australia, 2003). A policy focus of Federal and State governments is to ensure that the school-to-work transition is as smooth as possible for the largest proportion of young people. Such policies have included widening the curriculum during the senior high school years, providing vocational education while at school, increasing the school leaving age, making it more difficult for school leavers to obtain Social Security and the providing more career guidance (Fullarton, 2003; Marks, 2007). Research conducted in Australia and overseas on the school-to-work transition points to a large number of factors related to school completion. These include demographic factors such as socioeconomic background, gender, region, ethnicity and family circumstances (Rumberger, 1983) and educational factors, such as prior achievement, school sector, attitudes to school, subject choice (curriculum pattern), and school and teacher effects (Marks, 1998, 2007). Parents and teachers may also be involved (Lynn, 1995). Another important aspect is educational and occupational expectations, which can be attributed to the influences of parents, schools and teachers. Prior achievement or performance at school partly shapes students expectations. Students from lower socioeconomic backgrounds may participate less at university because they have low expectations, which may be influenced by their parents and their teachers. Of particular concern is when lower expectations are inconsistent with the students academic performance at school. It would be a serious wastage of talent if high ability students from disadvantaged backgrounds had unwarranted low expectations so that they would not even attempt to apply to an appropriate tertiary course. That said, many students are not interested in pursuing academic work and feel that they are more suited to skilled work in the trades, which can be just as demanding as many university courses. Trade jobs are also often well remunerated. It is important that university education is not seen as the most desirable destination for all students, regardless of their interests and suitability. The Expectations, Engagement, Transitions and Destinations of New South Wales Youth project was initiated by the NSW Board of Vocational Education and Training. This study was commissioned in the context of the NSW School Leaving Age reforms, the Council of Australian Governments (COAG) Compact with Young Australians and national policy responses to the Bradley Review of Higher Education. It is part of the commitment by the State Government to increase the engagement of young people in New South Wales with education and training pathways. It follows from earlier survey work: the 2005 and 2006 Destination and Satisfaction Surveys and the 2007 Career Moves - Longitudinal Survey of Destination, Pathways and Satisfaction of 2005 Government School HSC Students in NSW. -1-

16 Career Moves Expectations and Destinations of NSW Senior Secondary Students This project examines the destinations of both Year 12 completers and early school leavers and the educational expectations of students still at school. All three groups were asked their expected occupation at age 30. Of particular interest is the role of parents and teachers on students destinations and expectations. Aspects of the school-to-work transition addressed by this (first) report are: Educational and work situations in 2010 of students who were at school in NSW in Current activity of young people who had left school with and without completion of the HSC. Parents and teachers expectations of post-school study or training for students at school in These expectations are compared with the actual study or training destinations for students who have left school. Career expectations analysed by school completion status, gender, socioeconomic background and region of the State. Gender, regional, school sector and socioeconomic differences in university entrance performance (ATAR) scores. Between school variation in ATAR scores and the effect of schools and socioeconomic background on ATAR scores. For students at school, influences on subject choice and expectations of school completion. Reasons for school leaving early. Reasons for remaining at school after considering leaving school. Plans for further study, by gender, socioeconomic background and school sector. Anticipated Australian Tertiary Admission Rank. Apprenticeship and traineeships among those who have left school. University and vocational study among those who have left school. Of those not in education and training, reasons for not studying and likelihood of future study. Employment characteristics by educational status, region and socioeconomic background. Looking for work by educational status, region and socioeconomic background. Current main activity for those not in full-time education or training. This report is based on data from the Expectations and Destinations telephone survey of 6135 students and a random sample of one in three parents. s to teachers at the students schools yielded 3004 usable responses. -2-

17 2. Post-School Educational and Work Destinations This chapter presents the education and work situations and main activities of school leavers in The analyses separate Year 12 completers from non-completers. Educational Status The first group of tables focuses on the education status in 2010 of the sampled students who were in Years 10, 11 and 12 in 2009 and had subsequently left school. It is important to note that the vast majority of leavers had completed Year 12. Only 311 (13%) of school leavers had not completed Year 12. These estimates should not be confused with apparent retention rates. The estimate of 87 per cent of school leavers having completed Year 12 is higher than the ABS Year 10 to Year 12 apparent retention rate for New South Wales of around 75 per cent. This is due to the denominators of the two estimates being different. The apparent retention rate denominator is based on the Year 10 student population in 2008 of the 2010 Year 12 cohort, whereas the sample estimate of the proportion of school leavers having completed Year 12 has a denominator based on all students in Years 10 to 12 in 2009 but in 2010 were no longer at school (which consists almost entirely of students in Year 12 in 2009). So the estimate is of the percentage of young people that have completed the HSC of those that are no longer at school. Note that school leavers includes any student that was at school in 2009 and was no longer at school in School leavers comprise two groups, school completers who completed Year 12 (usually the HSC), and non-completers who did not complete Year 12. Note that there are only 311 sample respondents who indicated they were school leavers who did not complete Year 12 (non-completers), so statistically speaking there is much less confidence with the estimates for non-completers than for the estimates for Year 12 completers (completers). This is especially the case for larger tables with smaller cell sizes. In other words the estimates for noncompleters have wider confidence limits so caution should be exercised in making inferences from these the non-completer data. The education status of school leavers in 2010 is presented in Table 2-1. In this and subsequent tables, the percentages in the tables are column percentages, that is, they add up to one-hundred down the columns. Overall, about 42 per cent of school leavers were at university and about 24 per cent in vocational study and training, including study at a TAFE Institute or private provider, or as part of an apprenticeship or traineeship (Table 2-1). About 30 per cent were not in post-school education or training. Among Year 12 completers, 48 per cent were at university and 24 per cent in vocational education or training (15.5% in TAFE or private courses, 5% in apprenticeships and 3% in traineeships). About 30 per cent were not in education or training, although the majority (73%) of this group were in employment. The figure of 48 per cent transition of Year 12 completers to university is higher than the estimate of per cent derived from administrative data sources. This difference is due in part to sampling as well as potential variation of survey responses from administrative data. It is important to note that the sample estimate lies within the 95% confidence interval and that the relationships and patterns between and within this and other sample sub-groups are unlikely to be significantly affected by this higher than expected estimate of Year 12 completer transition to university. The 2010 On Track study, -3-

18 Career Moves Expectations and Destinations of NSW Senior Secondary Students which interviewed 71.6 per cent of all completers in Victoria, found that 48.5 per cent of 2009 completers were enrolled for a bachelor degree in 2010 (Rothman, et al., 2011). Table 2-1: Educational status by Year 12 completion status Educational Status All School Leavers Year 12 Completion Not Year 12 Completion Apprenticeship Traineeship TAFE University Private/Other Not in Education or Training Number of respondents Of those who had not completed Year 12, nearly a quarter were in apprenticeships, a further quarter was enrolled in a TAFE course, about 3 per cent were in traineeships and another 3 per cent were enrolled in private educational institutions. Forty-four per cent were not in further education or training. Only one Year 12 non-completer (0.4%) was at university in This student may have been admitted through special entry requirements. Table 2-2 presents the column percentages for educational status by gender for the two groups of school leavers. Among Year 12 completers, a higher proportion of females (52%) were at university than males (44%). Similar percentages were attending a TAFE institution. Eleven per cent of males who completed school were doing an apprenticeship compared to one per cent of females. There were only small percentages of both genders doing a traineeship. Of Year 12 completers, males were marginally more likely not to be in education or training (29% compared to 26%). Of non-completers, a much higher proportion of females than males (54% compared to 38%) were not in education or training. Nearly 40 per cent of male non-completers were in apprenticeships compared to 5 per cent of females. Over one-third of female non-completers were at a TAFE institute compared to 18 per cent of males. Table 2-2: Educational status by gender Year 12 Completers Year 12 Non-Completers Male Female Male Female Apprenticeship Traineeship TAFE University Private/Other Not in Education or Training Number of respondents

19 Destinations Among Year 12 completers, over 60 per cent who had attended schools in metropolitan Sydney were at university in 2010 compared to around 37 per cent of those who had attended schools in the Hunter and Illawarra regions and 34% of those who had attended schools in the remaining New South Wales regions. TAFE courses and apprenticeships were far more common among respondents living in nonmetropolitan than metropolitan regions with a similar pattern (at a lower level) for traineeships. There were larger regional differences in the percentages not engaged in educational or training with 38 per cent of school completers living in regions defined as Remainder NSW not engaged in education or training compared to 21 per cent of those from north and east Sydney. Twenty-eight per cent of Year 12 non-completers living in remainder NSW were in apprenticeships compared to only 13 per cent in north and east Sydney (Table 2-3). Participation at TAFE is also higher in non-metropolitan areas among school non-completers. Traineeships were also more common in the non-metropolitan areas although the cell sizes are too small to be reliable. In contrast to the pattern among school completers, the percentage not in education or training among non-completers is highest in north and east Sydney (56%) and lowest in Remainder NSW (39%). Table 2-3: Educational status by region North & East Sydney South & West Sydney Hunter & Illawarra Remainder NSW Year 12 Completers Apprenticeship Traineeship TAFE University Private/Other Not in Education or Training Number of respondents Year 12 Non-Completers Apprenticeship Traineeship TAFE University Private/Other Not in Education or Training Number of respondents

20 Career Moves Expectations and Destinations of NSW Senior Secondary Students Table 2-4: Educational status by school sector Government Catholic Independent Year 12 Completers Apprenticeship Traineeship TAFE University Private/Other Not in Education or Training Number of respondents Year 12 Non-Completers Apprenticeship Traineeship TAFE University Private/Other Not in Education or Training Number of respondents Among Year 12 completers, there are large school sector differences in the percentages at university. About 60 per cent of the students who had attended an independent school in 2009 were enrolled at university in 2010 compared to 43 per cent of students who had attended a government school (Table 2-4). TAFE study in 2010 is more common among 2009 school completers s who attended a government or Catholic school than students who attended an independent school. School completers who had attended an independent school were slightly less likely to be in an apprenticeship or a traineeship than were students who had attended a government school. Around 30 per cent of those who had attended a government school were not in education or training, compared to about 25 per cent of students from the other two school sectors. There are smaller school sector differences among Year 12 non-completers (Table 2-4). A higher proportion of non-completers who had attended Catholic and independent schools compared to those who had attended government schools were in apprenticeships. Non-apprenticeship TAFE study was more common among school leavers who had attended a government school, although the differences are not large considering the small cell sizes. The percentage not in further education or training is highest among former government school students at around 45 per cent, followed by former Catholic and independent school students (42 and 37%, respectively). The patterns by socioeconomic quartile are similar to, but a little stronger than, the patterns for school sector (Table 2-5). The most striking difference is for university study, with 66 per cent of Year 12 completers from the highest socioeconomic quartile attending university compared to 33 per cent of students from the lowest quartile. The opposite pattern was found for study at a TAFE. Apprenticeships and traineeships were more likely to be undertaken by those from the lowest socioeconomic quartile. The percentage of 2009 school completers from the lowest socioeconomic quartile not engaged in education and training in 2010 was nearly 36 per cent, compared to about 21 per cent of students from the highest socioeconomic quartile. -6-

21 Destinations Among non-completers, the lower the socioeconomic quartile, the higher the incidence of nonapprenticeship TAFE study. The percentage ranged from 17 to 29 per cent. In contrast, apprenticeships were more common among non-completers from the highest quartile (39%) although the second highest percentage was found for the lower-middle quartile (28%). There was no ordinal relationship between socioeconomic quartile and not being in education or training. Table 2-5: Educational status by socioeconomic quartile Educational Status Highest Upper Middle Year 12 Completers Lower Middle Lowest Apprenticeship Traineeship TAFE University Private/Other Not in Education or Training Number of respondents Year 12 Non-completers Apprenticeship Traineeship TAFE University Private/Other Not in Education or Training Number of respondents Table 2-6 shows educational status by work status for Year 12 completers and non-completers. Note the percentages shown are row percentages whereas previous and later tables present column percentages. Also note that the cell sizes in the panel for non-completers are often too small for reliable estimates. The measure of work status is summarised at the beginning of the next section. Among both Year 12 completers and non-completers, more than 90 per cent of apprentices and around 90 per cent of trainees were working full-time with the remainder working part-time. Sixty per cent of university students were working part-time and a further 7 per cent working full-time. A higher proportion of TAFE course participants were working full-time: 21 per cent among school completers and 31 per cent among non-completers. A high proportion of TAFE students who had not completed Year 12 were looking for work (32%) as were 45 per cent of non-completers enrolled in private institutions. Of Year 12 school completers not in education or training, 42 per cent were working full-time and 38 per cent working part-time. About a fifth were either unemployed or not in the labour force. The corresponding figures for school non-completers not in education or training are 36 per cent in fulltime work, 31 per cent in part time work and 33 per cent looking for work or not in the labour force. -7-

22 Career Moves Expectations and Destinations of NSW Senior Secondary Students Table 2-6: Educational Status by work status Educational Status Full-time Work Part-time Work Looking for Work Not in the Labour Force N of Cases Year 12 Completers Apprenticeship Traineeship TAFE University Private/Other Not in Education or Training Year 12 Non-completers Apprenticeship Traineeship TAFE University Private/Other Not in Education or Training Work Status The next group of tables focuses on work status. The data in these tables exclude students who were still at school in Of the 2399 students who had left school by late 2010, 30 per cent were working full-time, 44 per cent were working part-time, 18 per cent were looking for work and 8 per cent were not in the labour force. The high proportions in part-time work and looking for work can be attributed to about 55 per cent being at university or TAFE. Table 2-7 also shows these data by Year 12 completion status. Of school leavers who had not completed Year 12, 50 per cent were in full-time work and a further 23 per cent were in part-time work. This contrasts with Year 12 completers, of whom nearly half were in part-time work (47%) and over a quarter were in full-time work. For both groups about 20 per cent were looking for work and less than 10 per cent were not in the labour force. Table 2-7: Work status by Year 12 completion status Work Status All School Leavers Year 12 Completers Year 12 Non- Completers Full-time Work Part-time Work Looking for Work Not in the Labour Force Number of respondents Table 2-8 presents the analysis of work status by gender. Among school completers, a substantially higher proportion of males than females were in full-time work (33% compared to 21%). In contrast, a much higher percentage of females were working part-time (55% compared to 38%). A higher -8-

23 Destinations proportion of males than females (21% compared to 16%) were looking for work. A slightly higher proportion of females were not in the labour force. More than 60 per cent of male school non-completers were in full-time work compared to 32 per cent of female non-completers. In contrast, a higher proportion of female non-completers were working part-time (30% compared to 18%). Over a quarter of female non-completers were looking for work and a further 11 per cent were not in the labour force. The situation for male non-completers is substantially better, with 16 per cent looking for work and only 4 per cent not in the labour force. Table 2-8: Work status by gender Year 12 Completers Year 12 Non-Completers Male Female Male Female Full-time Work Part-time Work Looking for Work Not in the Labour Force Number of respondents Table 2-9 shows substantial regional differences in work status. About 35 per cent of school completers classified as having attended school in Remainder NSW were in full-time work and a further 33 per cent were in part-time work. This compares to about 20 per cent of those who had attended school in North and East Sydney working full-time and 50 per cent working part-time. The highest percentage of young people looking for work was in South and West Sydney, followed by North and East Sydney. These two regions also showed the high proportions of Year 12 completers not in the labour force. The two non-metropolitan regions showed lower proportions looking for work and not in the labour force. Table 2-9: Work status by region North & East Sydney South & West Sydney Hunter & Illawarra Remainder NSW Year 12 Completers Full-time Work Part-time Work Looking for Work Not in the Labour Force Number of respondents Year 12 Non-Completers Full-time Work Part-time Work Looking for Work Not in the Labour Force Number of respondents Among Year 12 non-completers, regional differences for full-time work are large (Table 2-9). Of school non-completers living in Remainder NSW 60 per cent were in full-time work compared to 31-9-

24 Career Moves Expectations and Destinations of NSW Senior Secondary Students per cent of non-completers who had attended school in North and East Sydney. The percentages looking for work were also higher in the two metropolitan regions. Only small percentages of noncompleters from non-metropolitan areas were not in the labour force compared to about a fifth of noncompleters from North and East Sydney. Table 2-10 shows that higher proportions of Year 12 completers who had attended a government or Catholic school were in full-time work (about 27%) compared to those who had attended independent schools (22%). The incidence of part-time work was higher among those who had attended a Catholic or independent school (51%) than Year 12 completers who had attended a government school (43%). This partly reflects higher proportions from those two school sectors in full-time post-school education. The percentage looking for work was lower among completers who had attended a Catholic school than Year 12 completers from the two other school sectors. The incidence of full-time work was higher among Year 12 non-completers who had attended an independent school (57%) than non-completers who had attended a Catholic (47%) or government school (50%). Similarly the proportions of non-completers looking for work or not in the labour force were lower for the independent school sector. Together, 29 per cent of non-completers who had attended a government school were looking for work or not in the labour force compared to 16 per cent of non-completers who had attended an independent school. Table 2-10: Work status by school sector Year 12 Completers Government Catholic Independent Full-time Work Part-time Work Looking for Work Not in the Labour Force Number of respondents Year 12 Non-Completers Full-time Work Part-time Work Looking for Work Not in the Labour Force Number of respondents Table 2-11 shows that the incidence of full-time work was highest among Year 12 completers from the lowest socioeconomic quartile (32%). In contrast, part-time work was highest among completers from the highest socioeconomic quartile (53%). This is again a reflection of the higher proportion engaged in full-time study. The proportion looking for work does not show an ordinal relationship with socioeconomic quartile: the lowest and highest quartiles exhibit the highest proportions looking for work. Among Year 12 non-completers there are no clear ordinal relationships with socioeconomic background. The incidence of full-time work is highest in the upper middle and highest socioeconomic quartiles. The incidence of part-time work does not differ appreciably across socioeconomic quartiles. The percentages looking for work are highest in the lowest and lower middle quartiles. The proportion not in the labour force is highest in the lower middle quartile. -10-

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