STRATEGIC ADVISORY COMMITTEE MEETING RENTAL HOUSING STUDY ANALYSIS FINDINGS
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1 Montgomery County, Maryland STRATEGIC ADVISORY COMMITTEE MEETING RENTAL HOUSING STUDY ANALYSIS FINDINGS February 22, 2016 Presented by: Kyle Talente, Vice President & Principal RKG Associates, Inc.
2 MEETING AGENDA Existing conditions Supply/demand analysis Affordability analysis Next steps 2
3 WORK COMPLETED Socioeconomic analysis Rental housing supply analysis Rental housing demand analysis Affordability analysis 3
4 TABLE OF CONTENTS Existing Conditions p. 12 Population Density by Census Tract 2014 p. 13 Total Population p. 14 Total Population Density Per Square Mile p. 15 Total Households p. 16 Total Household Density Per Square Mile p. 17 Population Change: 25 To 34 Years Old To 2014 p. 18 Population Change: 65 And Over , p. 19 Senior Households As A Share Of All Households p. 20 Racial And Ethnic Composition p. 21 Percent Change In Hispanic/Latino Population , p. 22 Net Total Migration, Montgomery County p. 23 Education Attainment: Population 18 To 24 Years Old p. 24 Education Attainment: Population 25 Years And Over p. 25 Median Income by Census Tract 2014 p. 26 Average Household Income (Adjusted To 2014 Dollars) , p. 27 Average Household Income (Adjusted To 2014 Dollars), Percent Change , p. 28 Total At Place Employment By Subarea 2013 p. 29 Total At Place Employment Density By Subarea Per Square Mile 2013 p. 30 Total Employment Export (Import) By Subarea 2013 p. 31 Key Findings p
5 TABLE OF CONTENTS (CONT.) Affordability Analysis p. 34 Affordability Analysis Thresholds p Rental Housing Demand Analysis p. 37 Renter Households, By Household Size p. 38 Renter Households, By Household Size, Montgomery County p. 39 Renter-Occupied Housing By Age Of Householder p. 40 Average Household Income by Income Threshold by Census Tract p. 41 Renter Households Earning Below Median Income, By Affordability Threshold p. 42 Key Findings p. 43 Rental Housing Supply Analysis p. 44 Percent Of Housing Units Renter Occupied p. 45 Rental Housing Units, By Type 2014 p. 46 Rental Housing Units, By Bedroom Count 2014 p. 47 Rental Housing Units, By Bedroom Count, All Rental Units 2014 p. 48 Rental Housing Units, By Bedroom Count, Apartments Only 2014 p. 49 Year Built p. 50 Percent Of Each Unit Type Being Used As Rental Housing 2014 p. 51 Key Findings p. 52 5
6 TABLE OF CONTENTS (CONT.) Analysis Results p. 53 Rental Housing, By Affordabil i ty Threshold p. 54 Rental Housing Supply, B y Affordabil it y Threshold 2014 p. 55 Rental Housing Affordabil i ty, B y I ncome Threshold 2014 p. 56 Affordability By Bedroom Count, 3 -Person Income Thresholds 2014 p. 57 Supply/Demand Equilibrium, All Rental Units 2014 p. 58 Supply/Demand Equilibrium, Apartment Units Only 2014 p. 59 Share Of Renter Households Cost B urdened, B y Subarea p. 60 Cost B urdened Renter Households, B y Affordabil it y Threshold p. 61 Share Of Renter Households Cost Burdened By More Than 50% Of Gross Income p. 62 Cost Burden For All Renter Occupie d Household Types p. 63 Subarea Supply/ D e man d Equili br i u m, Apartments Only 2014 p. 64 Subarea Supply/Demand Equilibrium, All Rental Units 2014 p. 65 Key Findings p Potential Market Considerat ion s p Next Steps p. 72 Next Steps p. 73 6
7 INDEX OF FIGURES AND MAPS Figure Number Title Page Figure 1 Total Population Figure 2 Tota Population Density Per Square Mile Figure 3 Total Households Figure 4 Total Household Density Per Square Mile Figure 5 Population Change: 25 To 34 Years Old , Figure 6 Population Change: 65 And Over , Figure 7 Senior Households As A Share Of All Households Figure 8 Racial And Ethnic Composition Figure 9 Percent Change In Hispanic/Latino Population , Figure 10 Net Total Migration, Montgomery County Figure 11 Education Attainment: Population 18 To 24 Years Old Figure 12 Education Attainment: Population 25 Years And Over Figure 13 Average Household Income (Adjusted To 2014 Dollars) , Figure 14 Average Household Income (Adjusted To 2014 Dollars), Percent Change , Figure 15 Total At Place Employment By Subarea Figure 16 Total At Place Employment Density By Subarea Per Square Mile Figure 17 Total Employment Export (Import) By Subarea Figure 18 Renter Households, By Household Size Figure 19 Renter Households, By Household Size, Montgomery County Figure 20 Renter-Occupied Housing By Age Of Householder Figure 21 Renter Households Earning Below Median Income, By Affordability Threshold Figure 22 Percent Of Housing Units Renter Occupied Figure 23 Rental Housing Units, By Type Figure 24 Rental Housing Units, By Bedroom Count Figure 25 Rental Housing Units, By Bedroom Count, All Rental Units Figure 26 Rental Housing Units, By Bedroom Count, Apartments Only Figure 27 Year Built Figure 28 Percent Of Each Unit Type Being Used As Rental Housing Figure 29 Rental Housing, By Affordability Threshold Figure 30 Rental Housing Supply, By Affordability Threshold Figure 31 Rental Housing Affordability, By Income Threshold Figure 32 Affordability By Bedroom Count, 3-Person Income Thresholds Figure 33 Supply/Demand Equilibrium, All Rental Units Figure 34 Supply/Demand Equilibrium, Apartment Units Only Figure 35 Share Of Renter Households Cost Burdened, By Subarea Figure 36 Cost Burdened Renter Households, By Affordability Threshold Figure 37 Share Of Renter Households Cost Burdened By More Than 50% Of Gross Income Figure 38 Cost Burden For All Renter Occupied Household Types Figure 39 Subarea Supply/Demand Equilibrium, Apartments Only Figure 40 Subarea Supply/Demand Equilibrium, All Rental Units Map Number Title Page Map 1 Rental Market Study Areas 11 Map 2 Population Density By Census Tract 13 Map 3 Median Income By Census Tract 26 Map 4 Average Household Income By Affordability Threshold By Census Tract 41 7
8 DATA UTILIZED Source Table Description Date Data Provider American Community Survey (ACS) B01001 Sex by Age , United States Census Bureau American Community Survey (ACS) B01002 Median Age by Sex , United States Census Bureau American Community Survey (ACS) B01003 Total Population , United States Census Bureau American Community Survey (ACS) B02001 Race , United States Census Bureau American Community Survey (ACS) B03002 Hispanic or Latino Origin by Race , United States Census Bureau American Community Survey (ACS) B03003 Hispanic or Latino Origin , United States Census Bureau American Community Survey (ACS) B08301 Means of Transportation to Work , United States Census Bureau American Community Survey (ACS) B08303 Travel Time to Work , United States Census Bureau American Community Survey (ACS) B11001 Household Type (Including Living Alone) , United States Census Bureau American Community Survey (ACS) B11007 Households by Presence of People 65 Years and Over, Household Size and Household Type , United States Census Bureau American Community Survey (ACS) B19001 Household Income in the Past 12 Months (In 2014 Inflation-Adjusted Dollars) , United States Census Bureau American Community Survey (ACS) B19013 Median Household Income in the Past 12 Months (In 2014 Inflation-Adjusted Dollars) , United States Census Bureau American Community Survey (ACS) B25001 Housing Units , United States Census Bureau American Community Survey (ACS) B25003 Tenure , United States Census Bureau American Community Survey (ACS) B25007 Tenure by Age of Householder , United States Census Bureau American Community Survey (ACS) B25008 Total Population in Occupied Housing Units by Tenure , United States Census Bureau American Community Survey (ACS) B25009 Tenure by Household Size , United States Census Bureau American Community Survey (ACS) B25010 Average Household Size of Occupied Housing Units by Tenure , United States Census Bureau American Community Survey (ACS) B25032 Tenure by Units in Structure , United States Census Bureau American Community Survey (ACS) B25063 Gross Rent , United States Census Bureau American Community Survey (ACS) B25068 Bedrooms by Gross Rent , United States Census Bureau American Community Survey (ACS) B25118 Tenure by Household Income in the Past 12 Months (In 2014 Inflation-Adjusted Dollars) , United States Census Bureau American Community Survey (ACS) DP04 Selected Housing Characteristics , United States Census Bureau American Community Survey (ACS) S0101 Age , United States Census Bureau American Community Survey (ACS) S1701 Poverty Status in the Past 12 Months , United States Census Bureau American Community Survey (ACS) S1501 Educational Attainment , United States Census Bureau American Community Survey (ACS) N/A Components of Population Change United States Census Bureau Source Table Description Date Data Provider Comprehensive Housing Affordability Strategy (CHAS) Table 7 Renter Occupied Cost Burden by HAMFI United States Department of Housing and Urban Development Comprehensive Housing Affordability Strategy (CHAS) Table 8 Renter Occupied Cost Burden by HAMFI by HAMFI Thresholds United States Department of Housing and Urban Development Comprehensive Housing Affordability Strategy (CHAS) Table 9 Renter Occupied Cost Burden by Race by HAMFI Thresholds United States Department of Housing and Urban Development Comprehensive Housing Affordability Strategy (CHAS) Table 12 Renter Occupied Year Structure Built United States Department of Housing and Urban Development Comprehensive Housing Affordability Strategy (CHAS) Table 15C Renter Occupied Units by HAMFI by RHUD Threshold United States Department of Housing and Urban Development Comprehensive Housing Affordability Strategy (CHAS) Table 16 Renter Occupied Elderly Family by HAMFI United States Department of Housing and Urban Development Comprehensive Housing Affordability Strategy (CHAS) Table 18C Rent by Units in Structure by RHUD Threshold United States Department of Housing and Urban Development 8
9 DATA UTILIZED Source Table Description Date Data Provider Environmental Systems Research Institute (ESRI) Demographics Demographic and Income Profile Population ESRI ArcGIS Environmental Systems Research Institute (ESRI) Demographics Demographic and Income Profile Households ESRI ArcGIS Environmental Systems Research Institute (ESRI) Demographics Demographic and Income Profile Families ESRI ArcGIS Environmental Systems Research Institute (ESRI) Demographics Demographic and Income Profile Race and Ethnicity ESRI ArcGIS Environmental Systems Research Institute (ESRI) Demographics Demographic and Income Profile Average Household Size ESRI ArcGIS Environmental Systems Research Institute (ESRI) Demographics Demographic and Income Profile Owner Occupied Housing Units ESRI ArcGIS Environmental Systems Research Institute (ESRI) Demographics Demographic and Income Profile Renter Occupied Housing Units ESRI ArcGIS Environmental Systems Research Institute (ESRI) Demographics Demographic and Income Profile Median Age ESRI ArcGIS Environmental Systems Research Institute (ESRI) Demographics Demographic and Income Profile Median Household Income ESRI ArcGIS Source Table Description Date Data Provider OnTheMap Work & Home Total Primary Jobs 2013 United States Census Bureau OnTheMap Work & Home Jobs by Worker Age 2013 United States Census Bureau OnTheMap Work & Home Jobs by Earnings 2013 United States Census Bureau OnTheMap Work & Home Jobs by NAICS Industry Sector 2013 United States Census Bureau OnTheMap Work & Home Jobs by Worker Race 2013 United States Census Bureau OnTheMap Work & Home Jobs by Worker Ethnicity 2013 United States Census Bureau OnTheMap Work & Home Jobs by Worker Educational Attainment 2013 United States Census Bureau OnTheMap Work & Home Jobs by Worker Sex 2013 United States Census Bureau OnTheMap Work & Home Total Private Jobs 2013 United States Census Bureau OnTheMap Work & Home Private Jobs by Worker Age 2013 United States Census Bureau OnTheMap Work & Home Private Jobs by Earnings 2013 United States Census Bureau OnTheMap Work & Home Private Jobs by NAICS Industry Sector 2013 United States Census Bureau OnTheMap Work & Home Private Jobs by Worker Race 2013 United States Census Bureau OnTheMap Work & Home Private Jobs by Worker Ethnicity 2013 United States Census Bureau OnTheMap Work & Home Private Jobs by Worker Educational Attainment 2013 United States Census Bureau OnTheMap Work & Home Private Jobs by Worker Sex 2013 United States Census Bureau Source Table Description Date Data Provider Montgomery County Assessor Database N/A Single Family Housing 2014 Montgomery County Assessor Office Montgomery County Assessor Database N/A Multi-family Housing 2014 Montgomery County Assessor Office Montgomery County Assessor Database N/A Non-Owner Occupied 2014 Montgomery County Assessor Office Source Table Description Date Data Provider Rental Housing Survey N/A Multifamily Housing Supply 2014 Montgomery County Department of Housing and Community Affairs Rental Housing Survey N/A Current Monthly Rents 2014 Montgomery County Department of Housing and Community Affairs Rental Housing Survey N/A Market Units 2014 Montgomery County Department of Housing and Community Affairs Rental Housing Survey N/A Subsidized Units 2014 Montgomery County Department of Housing and Community Affairs Source Table Description Date Data Provider Realtor N/A Current Rents on Conversion Units 2015 Multiple Listing Service (MLS) 9
10 DEFINITION OF TERMS Affordability The relationship between a household s ability to pay for housing and the cost of housing; also called price appropriateness Ability to pay The maximum amount a household can spend on housing without being cost burdened Cost burdened Relationship between household income and percent of that income being spent on housing HUD defines cost burdened as spending more than 30% of gross income Area Median Income HUD-defined income thresholds based on household size; pinned to certain financial programs Analysis focuses on 30%, 50%, 80%, 100%, 120% Thresholds are relevant to various HUD housing programs Conversion Units Owner occupied housing units converted to rental units 10
11 Map 1 SUBAREAS 11
12 EXISTING CONDITIONS
13 Map 2 POPULATION 13
14 Figure 1 POPULATION 14
15 Figure 2 POPULATION DENSIT Y 15
16 Figure 3 HOUSEHOLDS 16
17 Figure 4 HOUSEHOLD DENSIT Y 17
18 Figure 5 AGE Net County Change: 20,101 18
19 Figure 6 AGE Net County Change: 16,961 19
20 Figure 7 SENIORS 20
21 Figure 8 RACIAL COMPOSITION 21
22 Figure 9 HISPANIC/LATINO POPULATION 22
23 Figure 10 COUNT Y NET MIGRATION 23
24 Figure 11 EDUCATION 24
25 Figure 12 EDUCATION ATTAINMENT 25
26 Map 3 HOUSEHOLD INCOME 26
27 Figure 13 HOUSEHOLD INCOME 27
28 Figure 14 HOUSEHOLD INCOME 28
29 Figure 15 OTM EMPLOYMENT CONCENT. Note: Total at place employment encompasses all employment sectors, including public administration 29
30 Figure 16 OTM EMPLOYMENT CONCENT. 30
31 Figure 17 OTM EMPLOYMENT CONCENT. Note: Export (import) is defined as the difference between the number of at place of work employees and at home work employees 31
32 KEY FINDINGS Population and households data indicate urban/rural dichotomy in development patterns Development more intense inside ICC and along I-270 Inner Beltway suburban communities not so suburban Settlement patterns defined by preference, income Younger persons clustering near transit areas Seniors seeking more affluent, suburban locations County population diverse and still diversifying Foreign born residents make up substantial portion of County growth County is a majority minority community Hispanic population increased nearly 38,000 people from , a percent increase of 27% Concentrated growth in most affordable/transit-focused areas 32
33 KEY FINDINGS Strong correlation between education and income Comparatively high attainment in every subarea (driving costs) Most expensive areas of County have highest education levels Real household income has not kept pace with Consumer Price Index Income in County has gone down, on average Only two subareas experienced real income growth Impacts affordability for the lowest incomes the most I-270 corridor is the employment center for the County More than 271,000 from Friendship Heights to Gaithersburg Glenmont line substantially less employment Government jobs substantial part of County employment Almost 60,000 jobs on I-270 corridor Employment centers import almost 160,000 workers each day (opportunity ) 33
34 AFFORDABILITY ANALYSIS
35 AFFORDABILIT Y ANALYSIS HUD HOUSEHOLD INCOME THRESHOLDS Persons in Household Income Bands Extremely Low (30%) Income Limits $25,700 $28,900 $32,100 Very Low (50%) Income Limits $42,800 $48,150 $53,500 Low (80%) Income Limits $54,800 $61,650 $68, % AMI $85,600 $96,300 $107, % AMI $102,720 $115,560 $128,400 Source: HUD AMI 2014, DHCA, RKG Note: U.S. Housing and Urban Development (HUD) defines area median income (AMI) as the 100% median for a four person household. For metropolitan Washington DC (including Montgomery County) it is $107,000. The analysis uses three person thresholds to reflect the median household size for Montgomery County renter households. 35
36 AFFORDABILIT Y ANALYSIS CORRESPONDING RENT THRESHOLDS Persons in Household Income Bands Extremely Low (30%) Income Limits $643 $723 $803 Very Low (50%) Income Limits $1,070 $1,204 $1,338 Low (80%) Income Limits $1,370 $1,541 $1, % AMI $2,140 $2,408 $2, % AMI $2,568 $2,889 $3,210 Source: HUD AMI 2014, DHCA, RKG Note: Rent thresholds are calculated as 30% of gross income. The County s Moderately Priced Dwelling Unit (MPDU) thresholds are established at 65% of the HUD median for a four person household, which is close to the 80% of AMI for a three person household. 36
37 RENTAL HOUSING DEMAND ANALYSIS
38 Figure 18 RENTAL HOUSING DEMAND ANALYSIS 38
39 Figure 19 RENTAL HOUSING DEMAND ANALYSIS 39
40 Figure 20 TENURE BY AGE OF HOUSEHOLDER 40
41 Map 4 HOUSING DEMAND ANALYSIS 41
42 Figure 21 RENTAL HOUSING DEMAND ANALYSIS 42
43 KEY FINDINGS Renter population more diverse than many other communities 37% of rental households have 3+ persons Influenced by mix of units by bedroom count Transient nature of County/region (NIH, Federal government) increases renter demand from traditional ownership households Contributes to conversion levels About 66% of renters over 35-years old Active adult (55+) makes up 25% Renter households more diverse income levels than owners More than 50% of renter households earn less than 100% of AMI Some subareas have concentrations over 80% of low/moderate income HHs Households earning below 50% of AMI account for 38% of demand 46,845 renter households 43
44 RENTAL HOUSING SUPPLY ANALYSIS
45 Figure 22 OCCUPIED HOUSING UNITS 45
46 Figure 23 RENTAL HOUSING SUPPLY ANALYSIS 46
47 Figure 24 RENTAL HOUSING SUPPLY ANALYSIS 47
48 Figure 25 RENTAL HOUSING SUPPLY ANALYSIS 48
49 Figure 26 RENTAL HOUSING SUPPLY ANALYSIS 49
50 Figure 27 RENTAL HOUSING STOCK AGE 50
51 Figure RENTAL HOUSING SUPPLY ANALYSIS 51
52 KEY FINDINGS Rental housing accounts for 30% all units in County Concentrated on Metro lines and employment centers Conversions highest in older, inner-beltway and high employment areas Glenmont subarea high concentration away from employment Employment/transit corridors have greatest conversion supply Silver Spring/Glenmont and Friendship Heights/Bethesda/White Flint lines Germantown has affordable conversion concentration (townhomes) County rental supply has high concentrations of large units Almost 40% are 3+ bedroom units (conversions) More than 25% with only apartments Concentrated in older properties Only 14% of County supply constructed since % built prior to 1980 Existing resident displacement concern if redevelopment becomes precedent approach 52
53 ANALYSIS RESULTS
54 Figure 29 RENTAL HOUSING SUPPLY ANALYSIS 54
55 Figure 30 RENTAL HOUSING SUPPLY ANALYSIS 55
56 Figure 31 RENTAL HOUSING SUPPLY ANALYSIS 56
57 Figure 32 RENTAL HOUSING SUPPLY ANALYSIS 57
58 Figure 33 AFFORDABILIT Y ANALYSIS 58
59 Figure 34 AFFORDABILIT Y ANALYSIS 59
60 Figure 35 AFFORDABILIT Y ANALYSIS 60
61 Figure 36 AFFORDABILIT Y ANALYSIS 61
62 Figure 37 AFFORDABILIT Y ANALYSIS 62
63 Figure 38 RENTER HOUSEHOLD COST BURDEN 63
64 Figure 39 AFFORDABILIT Y ANALYSIS 64
65 Figure 40 AFFORDABILIT Y ANALYSIS 65
66 KEY FINDINGS Households at the lowest incomes are the least served 38% of renter households earn under 50% of AMI 19% of rental units affordable under 50% of AMI Units affordable from 30% to 80% of AMI, concentrated inside ICC and along I-270 Sizeable supply from 50% to 80% Countywide Af fordability greatest in smaller units Factor of size more than anything Only meets needs of specific households (no one over 2 persons) Only ~12% of larger (3+ bedroom) units are affordable below 80% of AMI 66
67 KEY FINDINGS Market unbalanced at lowest/highest end of market Under 30% of AMI households are short 20,830 units Over 120% of AMI households are short 13,253 units Concentration of units between 50% and 100% of AMI Testament to inclusionary zoning requirements Age of housing also large influence Great for households seeking to minimize cost Preference needs to be considered Not all households seek to maximize ability to pay (high end) Building 13,000 high-end units will serve new residents as well as existing Housing/transportation costs linked in Metro area Joint costs may be balanced (45% of gross income), but skewed to housing 67
68 KEY FINDINGS Approximately 50% of all renter households cost burdened Share by subarea varies, but no less than 37% in Friendship Heights Cost burdening much greater for lower incomes 80% of households earning below 30% of AMI 87% of households earning between 30% and 50% of AMI Impacted by presence of income-controlled housing In contrast, only 9% of those earning over 100% of AMI Excessive burdening also concentrated among the most vulnerable 68
69 KEY FINDINGS Montgomery County rental base provides diverse of ferings Age of supply creates natural affordability Age also provides diverse unit size supply Transient nature of region/employment enhances conversion market However, market forces eroding naturally af fordable base Unbalanced supply/demand driving up costs Loss of real income due to downturn Demand from outside Montgomery County, Metro region New development will be necessary to meet need of existing/growing unmet demand (af fordably) Employment centers, transportation corridors Rehabilitation/preservation equally(more) important Protection of 3+ bedroom apartment units 69
70 POTENTIAL MARKET CONSIDERATIONS Ownership conversions provide a major resource for renters Removing conversions has dramatic impact on balance Net shortage of 17,651 units based on demand Units almost exclusively concentrated in 80% and above groups Large share of the 3+ bedroom rental units Silver Spring/Glenmont only subarea where apartments exceed total demand Economic expansion will erode conversion supply Market forces will make selling to owners more lucrative than maintaining as a rental The loss of conversions will disproportionally displace higher income households Downward pressure on market = higher prices Lack of suitable supply will force existing residents to leave County 70
71 POTENTIAL MARKET CONSIDERATIONS Purple Line connection east-west may change rental market equilibrium Direct impact Redevelopment that will occur around new stations Demolition/repositioning of market rate affordable units Replacement with higher-end, smaller units Indirect impact Silver Spring/Glenmont rentals will have better connectivity to Friendship Heights/Bethesda/White Flint line employment Drive up pricing for naturally affordable units County rental market driven, in part, by Federal spending Direct impact NIH, NIST Changes in programmatic spending/focus could affect market Indirect impact Federal government generates transient demand From representatives to their support staff Demand across all income spectrums Part of conversion market 71
72 NEXT STEPS
73 NEXT STEPS Interview and stakeholder outreach Typology analysis (APD) Financial feasibility model (RKG) Policy analysis (CHP) Strategy Formulation 73
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