One Failure Leads to Another: Developing Leading Indicators for Security Threats and Risks
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1 One Failure Leads to Another: Developing Leading Indicators for Security Threats and Risks SESSION ID: TRM-W07 Dr. Lance Hayden Solutions Architect & Information Scientist Cisco Global Security
2 What We ll Cover Today Introductions Measures, Metrics and Indicators Leading Indicators in Security Examples Developing Leading Indicators in Your Security Program Concluding Remarks and Open for Questions 2
3 Introductions
4 Introducing Myself Dr. Lance Hayden CISSP, CISM, CRISC
5 Measures, Metrics and Indicators
6 Measures, Metrics and Indicators What does it mean to measure? [To] ascertain the size, amount, or degree of (something) by using an instrument or device marked in standard units or by comparing it with an object of known size [To] estimate or assess the importance, quality, value, or effect of (something) [To] judge someone or something by comparison with (a certain standard) 1 6
![marked in standard units or by comparing it with an object of known size [To] estimate or](/docs-images/43/2628962/images/page_6.jpg "assess the importance, quality, value, or effect of (something) [To] judge someone or something")
7 Measures, Metrics and Indicators Output Artifact Independent Output Trend Linked Metric Indicator Measurement Process Activity Context 7
8 Measures, Metrics and Indicators Leading and Lagging Indicators Concept borrowed from economics Use of indicators dates back to 1930 s National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) Metrics involving economic processes found to be important in business cycles 2 Types of indicators include: Leading indicators that anticipate future cycles and events Coincident indicators that describe current state Lagging indicators that are evidence of past cycles and events 8
9 Measures, Metrics and Indicators Examples of Economic Indicators Lagging Indicators GDP drop for two consecutive quarters indicates recession Unemployment rising indicates economy has fared poorly Coincident Indicators Income and wages Leading Indicators Stock prices Retail sales Building permits 9
10 Measures, Metrics and Indicators It s very difficult to make predictions, especially about the future 3 10
11 Leading Indicators in Security
12 Drift Model of Security Failure 12
13 Leading Indicators in Security Security professionals understand the role of lagging and coincident indicators Event counts (coincident) Telemetry data (coincident) Failed audits (lagging) Security breaches (lagging) Today, security teams are looking for ways to anticipate threats and failures 13
14 Leading Indicators in Security Requirements for leading security indicators are different Leading indicators require a different approach Data collection prior to the cycle or event Proactive rather than reactive vision Creativity and imagination Leading indicators require different data sources Exploratory rather than forensic data Information investment against future insights Leading Indicators require different analysis Linking past and future measurements Looking for future trends in past data 14
15 Examples
16 Example: Making an Exception Many organizations have standard security configurations Deployment guides Standard or secure build policies for production systems Many organizations also have exception processes With approval, some systems may not have to play by the rules Allows flexibility and agility A poorly managed exception process can be a leading indicator of security risk Source: exception process of large retail company 16
17 Example: Making an Exception IT Exceptions Security Vulnerabilities Security Incidents
18 Example: Competing Priorities Security must compete with other enterprise priorities Productivity targets Revenue and cost pressures Habits and decisions, not policies, define security posture If the choice is secure or on time which will be chosen? Organizational culture defines what is truly important Changes in everyday decisions can be a leading indicator of increased security risks Source: survey responses & project data of medium ISP 18
19 Example: Competing Priorities 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 "I feel pressure" Project on schedule Security review complete 19
20 Developing Leading Indicators in Your Security Program
21 Developing Leading Indicators in Your Security Program Causation Correlation 21
22 Developing Leading Indicators in Your Security Program Five rules for leading security indicators One: Big events (almost) always follow small ones Two: Correlation is not causation Three: Patterns are not predictions Four: Analysis can t be (fully) automated Five: If you re sure, then you re sure to be wrong 22
23 Developing Leading Indicators in Your Security Program Five tips for leading security indicators One: Work back from known events Two: Pay attention to small failures Three: Don t let the perfect be the enemy of the good Four: Surveys make for great data Five: Don t be afraid to experiment 23
24 Thinking Differently About Indicators Let s examine a few examples Federal Reserve Beige Book 4 Published eight times per year since 1970 Completely anecdotal data Consumer Confidence Indices (Various) Survey-based data collection Responses are variants of positive, neutral, or negative Ontario Leading Indicators Project (OLIP) Designed to identify management practices that improve health and safety performance before injuries and illnesses occur Again, survey based, categorical data collection 24
25 References 1 Oxford English Dictionary 2 NBER Working Paper No.941: The Leading Indicator Approach to Economic Forecasting Retrospect and Prospect 3 Variously attributed to Yogi Berra, Niels Bohr, and Mark Twain 4 Summary of Commentary on Current Economic Conditions by Federal Reserve District (available at 25
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