Recent Canadian Advances in Tourism Employment Statistics and Insights on the Road to Recovery

Transcription

1 Recent Canadian Advances in Tourism Employment Statistics and Insights on the Road to Recovery Scott Meis and Jennifer Hendry 1, 2 Canadian Tourism Human Resource Council 1. Introduction Tourism activities are generally labour intensive. For these reasons governments, industry organizations and tourism advocacy groups are quite keen on speaking of the contribution of tourism in generating jobs and providing people with access to income 3. In response, tourism employment and labour market statistics are collected, compiled, estimated and reported by a wide range of organizations ranging from local destination marketing organizations, industry councils, and national statistical organizations to international organizations with broad mandates regarding data collection and reporting such as the International Labour Organization and the World Tourism Organization. Recently, in the aftermath of the global economic crisis and recession of 2008 and the slowly emerging recovery, interest in the employment aspects of tourism has been particularly intense. Nevertheless, employment and labour statistics related to tourism, have still received relatively little methodological attention and, in the words of Igor Chermyshev (2009) of the International Labour Organization (ILO), they generally remain inadequately measured and insufficiently studied 4. Recently, updated international standards for tourism statistics, International Recommendations for Tourism Statistics (2008) and the Tourism Satellite Account: Recommended Methodological Framework (2008) as well as a new international joint agreement between the World Tourism Organization and the International Labour Organization, the ILO/UNWTO Joint Project on Employment in the Tourism Industries (Chermyshev, 2009) all highlight tourism employment statistics as a new priority for statistical improvement of both coverage and data quality. Indeed, ILO and UNWTO as part of their joint agreement have implemented a project to develop a Technical Guide on Best Practices in Measuring Employment in Tourism Industries (Chermyshev, 2009). At a national level, Canada s pioneering work developing a Tourism Human Resource Module (HRM) of the Canadian Tourism Satellite Account according to the OECD Manual on Tourism Satellite Accounts and Employment (2000), and in implementing, refining and extending the HRM has revealed new information and insights about the employment and labour market aspects of tourism. It has also opened up new lines of research such as profiling tourism industries and occupations, forecasting tourism labour supply and demand and investigating labour productivity in tourism industries. 1 The authors are indebted to the members of the Canadian Tourism Human Resources Council (CTHRC) Research Team, the Research Development and Analysis Section of Income and Expenditure Accounts Division of Statistics Canada, as well as the Canadian Tourism Research Institute (CTRI) of the Conference Board of Canada who were responsible for the research, development and production of the new statistical instruments and tourism labour market information described in the this paper. The individuals involved respectively include Calum MacDonald of CTHRC; Chris Jackson, Demi Kotsovos, Charles Morissette, and Monique Bisaillon of Statistics Canada; and Greg Hermus of CTRI. Their work and reports associated with the projects are the primary source material for this paper. The authors accept personal responsibility for any errors or omissions in describing their ongoing work and the associated industry implications. 2 Respective titles are Special Advisor, Evaluation and Research and Director, Research, Tel: UNWTO/UN Statistics Division, International Recommendations on Tourism Statistics, 2008 p Chermyshev, Igor, ILO/UNWTO Joint Project on Employment in the Tourism Industries: Statistics Component, Keynote, Session III, Employment in Tourism Industries Measurement Issues and Case Studies, Fifth UNWTO Global Conference on Tourism Statistics, Tourism: An Engine for Employment Creation, Bali, Indonesia, 30 March 2 April,

2 This paper reviews new statistical information and insights emerging from these recent technical developments and further evolving lines of research and development of statistical instruments and information sources relating to tourism employment. 2. Timely Recent Canadian Results In October, 2010, the Canadian Tourism Human Resource Council (CTHRC) and Statistics Canada released timely new statistics on the evolving employment and labour situation of the Canadian tourism sector in the aftermath of the recent global recession of 2008/09. On October 20, 2010, CTHRC released the most recent seasonally adjusted monthly figures from a special analysis of the monthly Canadian Labour Force Survey (LFS) for September These new figures reveal that, consistent with the overall economy, the unemployment rate within the Canadian tourism sector labour force is unchanged in September 2010 from the rate reported in September 2009 at 6.8%, considerable less than the (seasonally adjusted) overall unemployment rate of 8.0%. Other highlights included the following selected findings: Compared to September 2009, the unemployment rates within each of the tourism industry groups showed very little movement, with the travel services industry recording the largest increase in unemployment (+4.1%), and transportation seeing the largest overall decrease (-1.8%). The tourism unemployment rate in the majority of provinces tracked similar to, or lower than, the national percentage for the sector. Similar to the economy overall, the tourism sectors in New Brunswick, Saskatchewan, and PEI (Prince Edward Island) saw employment declines in September. This trend was primarily due to fewer youth participants in the labour market in these regions. 5 Similarly, on September 30, 2010, Statistics Canada released the most recent National Tourism Indicator (NTI) figures for the Second Quarter of 2010 on tourism demand, supply, GDP and employment directly attributable to tourism demand in Canada. Highlights with respect to tourism employment revealed that while tourism demand in Canada in the second quarter of 2010 has recovered from the year-long decline starting in 2008, tourism employment levels in Canada have not yet recovered and are, in fact, still declining. More precisely, the latest Canadian NTI results reveal the following specific findings for the second quarter of 2010: Tourism spending in Canada was up 1.5% in real terms in the second quarter, as increased spending by Canadians more than offset a decline in spending by international visitors to Canada. This was the fourth consecutive advance in tourism spending in Canada. With this recent upswing, tourism spending has recovered from its year-long decline that began in the third quarter of Tourism accounted for 610 thousand jobs in Canada in the second quarter, down 1.3% compared to the same quarter of This was the fifth consecutive quarter of year-to-year declines. Jobs were down in all industries in the second quarter, with the exception of accommodation. 6 Earlier in May of 2010, Statistics Canada also released a latest update, for reference year 2009, of its new tourism statistical instrument cited in the new international standards the Human Resource Module (HRM) of the Canadian Tourism Satellite Account (CTSA) designed to measure important aspects of tourism employment and labour with high degree of coherence and consistency. Key results of the latest HRM 5 Source: Jennifer Hendry, Tourism Employment in Canada September Unpublished internal management report, October 20, 2010, Canadian Tourism Human Resource Council. 6 Source: Statistics Canada, National Tourism Indicators, Second Quarter Ottawa: Statistics Canada,

3 showed that in 2009, the tourism sector in Canada accounted for 1.6 million jobs, or 9.4% of all jobs in Canada. Formerly in 1997, however, the tourism sector accounted for a larger proportion, 9.9% of all jobs. Jobs in tourism declined twice in the period covered: they dropped 1.7% (27,000) in 2005 and fell 0.6% (10,000 jobs) in 2009 (Bisaillon, 2010). More precisely, the latest Canadian HRM results for 2009 reveal the following further main findings and insights regarding the Canadian tourism sector: In 2009, the food and beverage services industry group was the largest employer among tourism industries, with more than 50% of all tourism jobs (853,000 jobs). The second largest employer was recreation and entertainment with 274,000 jobs, followed by accommodation with 222,000 jobs. The transportation industry group was responsible for 214,000 jobs, while travel services provided 45,000 jobs. Working hours were shorter in tourism industries in Canada compared to jobs economy-wide. The shorter work week is explained by the higher proportion of part-time jobs in tourism. From 1997 to 2009, hourly compensation was always lower in the tourism sector than economy-wide in Canada, but the gap widened, particularly in Food-counter attendants and kitchen helpers and related occupations were the single largest occupation in the tourism sector with 245,000 jobs. Almost all of these jobs (224,000) were in the food and beverage services industry group. In the accommodation industry group, the most prevalent occupation was light duty cleaners with 45,000 jobs. Bus drivers and subway and other transit operators were the main occupation in other transportation industries with 44,000 jobs, while program leaders and instructors in recreation, sport and fitness were the most common occupation in recreation and entertainment with 34,000 jobs. Travel counsellors were the main occupation in travel services, but accounted for only 21,000 jobs. Two tourism industry groups in Canada had a notably older workforce: 62% of employees in other transportation and 43% of employees in travel services were aged 45 years and over. On an hourly basis, immigrants were paid less than non-immigrants in the tourism sector, but on annual basis, immigrants earned more ($29,337 for immigrants versus $25,572 for non-immigrants) because they worked more hours (Bisaillon, 2010). Somewhat earlier, in February 2010, CTHRC released an update to its latest new statistical advance, a Labour Supply and Demand Study based on a labour supply-demand and forecasting models of the medium and long term future outlook of the labour market within the Canadian tourism sector. The main finding of this study is that Canada s tourism sector is facing a potentially severe shortage of labour over the next 15 years. Despite a short-term reprieve due to weak economic conditions during the economic recession of , the latest update of the study shows that as demand for labour grows, the pool of available workers will have an increasingly difficult time keeping up. Canada s population is aging, causing a significant deceleration in labour force growth over the long term. The consequences of labour shortages such as missed opportunities for investment in the tourism sector and the inability to meet potential demand could cost Canadian tourism businesses billions of dollars. More precisely, the latest update of the study found that: Similar to many other sectors of the Canadian economy, tourism suffered from the effects of tighter labour markets in the years leading up to the economic recession of Since then, weak economic conditions have provided a temporary reprieve, but the study s latest projections suggest tourism labour shortages will re emerge and worsen progressively over the next 15 years. By 2025, the sector s supply of labour could fall short of potential demand by an estimated 219,000 jobs, leaving 10.3 per cent of potential labour demand unfilled (Conference Board of Canada, 2010). 7 The next sections of this paper expand on the methodologies and results involved in each of these new 7 Conference Board of Canada, The Future of Canada s Tourism Sector: Economic Recession only a Temporary Reprieve from Labour Shortages, 2010, p. i. 3

4 statistical instruments, highlight further results and discusses some of their implications for industry decision makers concerned with managing tourism human resources as well as government policy makers concerned with tourism labour markets. 2. The Canadian Human Resource Module of the Tourism Satellite Account When the first Tourism Satellite Account was released in Canada in 1994 it revealed for the first time that tourism was a significant creator of employment in the Canadian economy. But, it still did not fully show the employment effects related to tourism industries. And, it contained relatively limited information of relevance to decisions regarding the development of labour market policies and programs. Ever since, three key stakeholders -- the Canadian Tourism Human Resource Council (CTHRC), Statistics Canada (STC) and the Canadian Tourism Commission (CTC) have worked together in partnership to address the information gap regarding tourism employment and labour market information in the tourism sector. The HRM, an analytical extension of the CTSA, was designed to provide more extensive, reliable and credible statistics on the three main human resource dimensions of tourism for the tourism sector, as a whole, and for each tourism industry group: jobs, hours and compensation. As with the CTSA before it, the main objective the HRM was to provide a range of stakeholders with credible, consistent and coherent definitions and measures of the key human resource aspects of tourism. The variables included in the HRM meet most of the basic information needs of the stakeholders. The jobs, hours of work and income earnings (detailed by labour income, annual wages/salaries, weekly wages/salaries, hourly wages/salaries) data have been integrated from a variety of sources providing a single high quality source of macroeconomic data on the tourism labour market. For all of the above, the HRM aims to supply answers to basic questions about the current situation of the tourism sector labour market. Moreover, the combination of the TSA and the HRM provide the basic definition and specification of the tourism labour market at the national level. This definitional information is a fundamental requirement for any tourism-specific labour market instrument. The CTSA and HRM combination also serves to pull together and integrate basic labour market information regarding all of tourism s various labour re lated components. In doing so, it reveals the previously hidden employment and labour market perspectives of the tourism sector within the national statistical system. The main tourism human resource statistics provided by HRM -- jobs, hours and compensation are also available by industry and occupational group, as well as the gender, work status, age group, and immigrant status of tourism related workers. By integrating data from the TSA with a number of other sources in the national statistical system into a new tourism labour force account, credible baseline and benchmark measures of tourism employment and its many facets are possible. All statistics provided by the HRM are related to the production of tourism industries. For example, statistics concerning jobs are about the number of jobs required to produce commodities in tourism industries whether the commodities are consumed by visitors or non-visitors, that is, local residents. With this update, it was possible to produce annual estimates from 1997 up to and including 2009 for Canada over a 13 year period. This constitutes an improvement in both the extent and timeliness of data production. The benchmark data can now be published six months after the reference period Concepts and Definitions The HRM is based on, and rooted in, the accounting framework of the Canadian TSA, which follows the international guidelines in Recommended Methodological Framework: Tourism Satellite Account (TSA: RMF, 2008). In turn, the TSA: RMF is based on the accounting framework and principles of the 4

5 internationally recognized System of National Accounts 1993 (SNA). Because the HRM uses the same framework, concepts and definitions as the Canadian TSA (CTSA), results from both can be readily compared. By extension, the HRM results can be readily compared to those of the SNA; in particular, to the number of jobs, hours worked and labour income in other industries in the economy. This enhances the analytical capacity of the HRM. Some of these basic concepts and definitions have new operational forms in this instrument. The HRM carries information on the number of employee and self-employment jobs, full-time equivalent employment, total hours worked and labour income, gross wages and salaries and supplementary labour income, by industry. Within the HRM, these are compiled from a total industry perspective first, that is to say, regardless of the source of demand, tourism or non-tourism. In the HRM, total employment in a tourism industry is the number of all employee and selfemployment jobs in that industry. It should be noted that a job that exists for only part of the year (for example four months) counts as only a fraction of a job (one-third of a job) for the year. It should also be noted that a part-time job at ten hours a week counts as much as a full-time job at 50 hours a week; each is one job. For this reason, jobs are not a good measure of labour productivity in term of labour inputs to production. A better measure is full-time equivalent employment in a tourism industry such as part-time jobs are converted to full-time jobs on the basis of hours worked. For example, two part-time jobs of twenty hours per week would be equivalent to one full-time job at forty hours per week. Total hours worked in a tourism industry is an even better measure of aggregate volume of labour inputs to production, and the one used in the SNA to calculate labour productivity. The concept here is that of actual hours worked, not usual hours, and of hours worked, not hours paid. The value of labour inputs to production in an industry is measured by the labour income and mixed income for all jobs in that industry. Labour income consists of gross (i.e., before tax) wages and salaries, including tips, commissions, bonuses, as well as supplementary labour income which covers mandatory and non-mandatory employer contributions to pension plans and social insurance and similar benefits. Mixed income is the income after expenses of unincorporated business accruing to the self-employed. The HRM also estimates the number of jobs in an industry that can be directly attributed to, or generated by, tourism demand. These estimates provide the link between the HRM and the Canadian Tourism Satellite Account and the National Tourism Indicators (NTI). Thus, tourism employment in an industry is the number of jobs generated by, or attributable to, visitor spending on the goods and/or services produced by that industry. The difference between tourism employment and total employment in an industry is just the number of jobs attributable to non-tourism (i.e., not directly attributable to tourism demand). To give an example, if the Full-Service Restaurants industry has a total of 100,000 jobs, only the share that is directly associated with tourism say 25%, or 25,000 jobs represent the tourism employment in this industry. Similarly, only 25% of the full-time equivalent employment, total hours worked and labour income is attributed to tourism. Derived variables, such as annual average hours worked and annual average wage and salary per tourism job, as well as the average hourly earnings per hour worked per tourism job are assumed to be the same for all jobs in an industry Data Sources and Methodology Four main sources of data underlie the compilation of the Human Resource Module estimates. They include: (1) Labour productivity data in the System of National Accounts, (2) Census data, (3) Labour Force Survey (LFS) data, and (4) Survey of Employment Payroll and Hours (SEPH) data. 5

6 The basic methodology consists essentially of eight steps:1) Taking data developed in the SNA for jobs, hours worked, and wages and salaries; 2) Distributing the SNA data and further disaggregating them using data from the SNA for full-time and part-time jobs, age distribution and gender; 3) Distributing the SNA totals for 2000 across occupations based on Census data; 4) Building time series from these benchmarks based on movements in corresponding series from the LFS and/or industry surveys; 5) Smoothing the time series for LFS occupations, while keeping the overall industry totals; and 6) Making limited, final adjustments to data values. This step completes the estimates for total employment of the HRM. The tourism employment estimates, are obtained in a seventh step: 7) Adjusting the aggregates for all jobs, hours worked and earnings according to the share of tourism employment in total employment, leaving averages unchanged. This step completes the detailed estimates for age distribution, gender and immigration status. Quarterly data, providing data on seasonal patterns, are obtained in an eighth step: 8) Splitting annual data into quarterly data. This data is seasonally adjusted so that the variations due to seasons can be observed Human Resource Module Results The HRM provides a snapshot of the tourism industries, arranged & compiled into five industry groups -- transportation (with details available for air transportation and other transportation), accommodation, food and beverage services, recreation and entertainment and travel services -- plus the occupations they comprise as well as insights into trends over time. Analyses can be made on employment, hours worked and employment earnings for the period starting in 1997 through to Derived variables, such as number of full-time equivalents, average hourly earnings and average annual hours worked per job and labour productivity can also be examined. These key statistics of the HRM can be analyzed according to various characteristics of the jobs (employee or self-employed, full-time or part-time) and the characteristics of the persons holding them (occupations, gender, age group, immigrant status), and also the characteristics of employers. Lastly, comparisons can be made to the SNA employment estimates for the overall economy and for selected industries as well as TSA and NTI aggregates. Because the HRM contains such a large amount of data, this paper will merely highlight some additional findings regarding key variables to further illustrate some of the types of analysis the HRM can support. As noted previously, the analysis focuses on the year 2009 and changes from the previous year and the over the preceding decade Tourism Industry Profiles As mentioned earlier, the HRM contains aggregated data on five tourism industry groups: transportation, accommodation, food and beverage services, recreation and entertainment and travel services. Key findings regarding one industry in particular, the food and beverage services industry illustrate some of the insights that can be revealed. The food and beverage services industry was the main employer in tourism in Canada in 2009 with 853 thousand jobs, accounting for over half of all jobs in tourism industries (see Chart 1). This industry has gained slightly in terms of its share of jobs over the years. In 1997 it held a smaller share, 51.7% of total jobs in the sector. In 2009, this industry group registered a decrease of 4000 jobs (-0.5%). Full-time were lost, but some part time jobs were created. 6

7 Chart 1: Distribution of jobs in tourism industries, 2009 Transportation 13% Travel services 3% Accommodation 14% Food and beverage services 53% Recreation and entertainment 17% Source: Statistics Canada, Human Resource Module of the Tourism Satellite Account 2009, Ottawa: 2010 Jobs in food and beverages services continued to pay the least, with an average hourly compensation of $15.11 in Even though this was up from the previous year (+4.6 %) for the second successive year, it remained well below the average hourly compensation in tourism industries in Canada of $ However, over the years, hourly compensation in this industry group has improved. In 2009, hourly compensation in food and beverage services was only 22.9% below the tourism sector average, versus 29% below in Notwithstanding this improvement, jobs in food and beverage services involved the fewest working hours per week and paid the least on an hourly basis in the tourism sector Occupations in Tourism Industries Five occupation groups dominate employee jobs in tourism industries, accounting for 48.2% of all employee jobs as shown in Chart 2: food-counter attendants, kitchen helpers and related occupations with 245,000 jobs; food and beverage servers with 191,000 jobs; cooks with 145,000 job; restaurant and food service managers with 82,000 jobs; and cashiers with jobs. Furthermore, these occupations were concentrated mainly in one tourism industry group. Of the jobs in the five top occupations, 93% were concentrated in the food and beverage services industries. The most prevalent occupation in the accommodation industries was light duty cleaner with 45,000 employee jobs (see Chart 2). Bus drivers and subway and other transit operators was the main occupation group in other transportation industries, with 44,000 jobs; while program leaders and instructors in recreation, sport and fitness were the most common occupation in recreation and entertainment, with 34,000 jobs. Travel counselors accounted for only 21,000 jobs, but represented the primary occupation in travel services (See Chart 2). Airline sales and service agents was the main occupation in air transportation. 7

8 Chart 2 Main Occupations in each tourism industry group, Canada, 2009 Source: Statistics Canada, Human Resource Module of the Tourism Satellite Account 2009, Ottawa: Profile of Employees in Tourism Industries The HRM provides details concerning three characteristics of employees, gender, age group, and immigrant status. The following highlights some of the HRM results according to one of these demographic characteristics, age group (See Chart 3). Youth aged 15 to 24 were a major source of labour for the tourism industries in Canada in They held 594,000 employee jobs, accounting for 4 out of ten employee jobs in tourism. Three out of four young workers were employed in the food and beverage services industries. The most common occupation was food counter attendants, kitchen helpers and related occupations. Older workers, aged 45 years or older, were also an important source of labour for tourism, contributing 411,000 employee jobs (27.4%), In 2009, older workers were employed more evenly across all tourism industries compared to young adults. Two tourism industry groups employed a notably older workforce: older workers accounted for 62.1% of all employees in other transportation industries and 43.6% of all employees in travel services. The most prevalent occupation among older workers was cook. 8

9 Chart 3: Job share by age group in tourism industries in Canada, 2009 Source: Statistics Canada, Human Resource Module of the Tourism Satellite Account 2009, Ottawa: Labour Force Survey and Census Customized Tabulations and Profiles As noted earlier, CTHRC also uses concepts, definitions and classifications tourism industries and tourism occupations from the CTSA and the HRM as templates for compiling customized tables of data from the monthly Canadian Labour Force Survey to provide monthly estimates of tourism related unemployment in the labour force of the Canadian tourism sector. Using a similar approach, CTHRC uses the same definitional template to produce customized tables profiling additional detailed employee characteristics of for each of the industry groups of the Canadian tourism sector as well as detailed demographic profiles of the tourism labour force by geography and industry group for 38 tourism occupations. In April 2010, CTHRC released the latest updated report Demographic Profile of Tourism Sector Employment describing the data in these tabulations from the 2006 Canadian Census. Because the Demographic Profiles study contains such a large amount of data, this paper merely highlights a few of the detailed additional results from the particular profile of disabled persons 8 employed in tourism, an equity group of particular policy interest. According to the 2006 census, this labour market segment involves about one in ten tourism workers (11%). This was slightly less than the share of workers with a disability in the Canadian work force overall (12%). Other highlights of this particular profile include the following results: The transportation industry group had the largest proportion of workers with a disability Women with a disability were more likely than disabled men to work in tourism One-half of tourism workers with a disability were 45 years and older Four in ten people with disabilities employed in tourism work in Ontario 8 Refers to persons identifying difficulties with daily activities and the reduction in the amount or kind of activities due to conditions or health problems that have lasted or are expected to last 6 months or more. 9

10 Vancouver had the greatest participation rates for disabled persons employed in tourism 9 Although these results are less timely than the other information sources cited previously; no other data source could provide such detailed information to accurately reveal what percentage of disabled persons are working in tourism by industry group, age group, particular region and major local labour market. Furthermore, while the absolute numbers may change from one census benchmark date to the next census year, most of the percentage shares do not generally shift significantly between census years. 4. Labour Supply-Demand Models and Forecasts As noted previously, in February 2010, CTHRC also released an update to its latest new statistical advance, a Labour Supply and Demand Study based on a labour supply-demand and forecasting models of the medium and long term future outlook of the labour market within the Canadian tourism sector. These state-of-the-art statistical research techniques and tools that have been developed to identify and specify the extent of potential future market imbalances shortages in the tourism sector in Canada. The tourism sector in Canada faces many challenges attracting and retaining its workers. These include competition for labour, both within the sector and from other areas of the economy, misperceptions about tourism occupations, falling birth rates, and the aging of the baby boomer population. As tourism continues to grow in Canada, it will become more and more difficult to ensure an adequate supply of labour (Conference Board of Canada, 2010). Many other sectors of the economy in Canada, and other national economies with aging populations, are facing similar tightening labour markets in the long term that will lead to severe workforce shortages in the future shortages that will be much worse than those experienced in Canada in the years leading up to Autumn The recession of temporarily slowed the onset of workforce shortages, as mounting job losses slackened labour markets in Canada and elsewhere. However, as the economy recovers through 2010 and 2011, the labour market will begin tightening again leading to widespread shortages in the tourism sector, as well as other sectors of the Canadian economy and in many other national economies with aging populations (Conference Board of Canada, 2010). Given these challenges, the Canadian Tourism Human Resource Council and the Conference Board of Canada have spent several years working together to develop the additional new analytical tools needed by industry and government to identify the extent of potential labour shortages in the Canadian tourism sector over the medium and long term Analytical Techniques and Methods Canada s assessments of the dynamics of the current labour situation of the tourism sector and future labour shortages are based on a multiple lines of evidence approach. This approach employs three major different methodological components: (1) the Human Resource Module extension of the Tourism Satellite Account described above; (2) a series of customized econometric models of potential labour shortages in Canada s tourism sector including three sub-components-- a baseline forecast of potential labour demand within the sector; a baseline forecast of the potential supply of labour to the sector; and a market adjustment mechanism 10 ; and (3) a combination of a quantitative surveys and qualitative focus group research on industry issues and outlooks. The baseline forecast of the potential labour demand for jobs in 9 Canadian Tourism Human Resource Council, Demographic Profile of Tourism Sector Employees, The market adjustment sub-model simulates the way in which labour supply and demand interact to reach an equilibrium where there is neither excess supply nor excess demand (i.e. market clearing). 10

11 the tourism sector by Canada, the provinces and sub-provincial regions is an extension of the potential demand for tourism goods and services generated by Canadians and foreigners. By contrast, the baseline forecast for labour supply is a function of Canada s population and the propensity of people to fill jobs in the tourism sector. Initially, the Conference Board developed a macroeconomic model to forecast potential labour shortages in the tourism sector out to 2025 at the national level, by tourism industry group and by tourism occupation and by province. The most recent update of the modelling and forecasting tools took the research and development a step further, by also examining potential labour shortages at the sub-provincial level of city regions Model and Forecast Results Based on these developments, it is currently expected that Canada s tourism sector could face a cumulative shortage of over 64,000 full-year jobs by 2015 and 219,000 full-year jobs by 2025, leaving 10.3 per cent of potential labour demand unfilled (See Table 1) (Conference Board of Canada, 2010). Table 1: Potential Labour Shortage in Canada s Tourism Sector (jobs) Transportation 4,691-2,647 8,173 14,105 22,104 Air transportation 1,444-1,719 1,287 3,735 7,510 Rail transportation Other transportation 3, ,531 9,894 13,910 Accommodation 4,193-4,041 9,353 14,568 22,225 Food and beverage services 9,665-12,708 35,029 91, ,307 Recreation and entertainment 4,879-4,385 10,868 24,746 31,999 Travel services TOTAL LABOUR SHORTAGE 23,769-24,776 64, , ,821 Source: Conference Board of Canada, Industries, Occupations and Regions Most Affected The Food and beverage services industry is forecast to suffer the largest labour shortage among all tourism industries by far, although shortages are also projected for the recreation and entertainment, transportation, and accommodation industries. Only travel services, an industry adapting to changing consumer needs, is expected to avoid significant shortages. Thus, it comes as no surprise that jobs in food and beverage services such as food-counter attendants, servers, cooks and bartenders will experience the greatest labour shortages among tourism sector occupations (See Table 2) (Conference Board of Canada 2010) Labour Shortages Affect All Provinces and Cities Projections for potential labour shortages in the tourism sector by province and city regions indicate that the shortages are unequally distributed at the provincial and sub-provincial levels. Ontario will experience the most significant shortage. By 2025, Ontario s supply of labour could fall short of potential labour demand by over 80,000 full-year jobs. Substantial labour shortages are also expected for Quebec, British Columbia, and Alberta. Furthermore, Atlantic Canada is expected to endure the most acute shortages in tourism labour, as a percentage of overall potential labour demand. By 2025, potential labour shortages 11

12 in the tourism sector are projected to range from 12.8 per cent in Prince Edward Island to 17.1 per cent in New Brunswick (Conference Board of Canada, 2010). Table 2: Potential Major Occupation Specific Labour Shortage in Canada s Tourism Sector (jobs) Food-counter attendants & kitchen helpers 2,894-3,579 13,120 33,478 49,564 Food and Beverage Servers 2,468-2,778 11,928 27,782 42,655 Cooks 1,617-2,252 3,528 10,497 16,791 Bartenders ,478 5,606 8,784 Program leaders & instructors in recreation & sport ,529 5,789 7,779 Source: Conference Board of Canada, At a sub-provincial regional level, problems finding labour tend to be worse in remote areas, where transportation logistics are a huge impediment. This is followed by urban areas, where competition for staff tends to be fiercest, resulting in high turnover rates (CTHRC, 2009). Among the metropolitan areas, Toronto s supply of labour could fall short of potential demand by 42,000 full-year jobs. Significant shortfalls are also forecast for Montreal, Vancouver and Calgary. The greatest shortages will be seen in Saint John (17.4%), St. John s (13.9%) and Halifax (13.4%), (Conference Board of Canada, 2010). 5. Conclusions The various new Canadian statistical data sources and analytical tools recently developed and implemented as extensions to the Canadian System of Tourism Statistics provide a unique new pool of information and insights on tourism employment and tourism labour markets in Canada. The related results presented above are particularly relevant and timely in the current environment of uncertainty regarding the recovery following the global financial crisis and recession. These recent measurement advances are the culmination of more than 15 years of sustained research and development to provide tourism human resource policy makers and professionals with an integrated source of timely, qualified and credible tourism labour market information. The new information resources also aid and support the recognition of a tourism specific labour force and the significance of the work of the agency responsible for addressing tourism labour market issues in Canada, the Canadian Tourism Human Resource Council. 6. Implications and Applications One of the key particularities of the new Canadian research advances is that they reconcile and clarify two distinct different views the demand and supply side perspectives of tourism labour. An important concept with the HRM is that it deals primarily with jobs in tourism industries regardless of whether these jobs are attributable to tourism activities. Secondly, the new tools inform policy makers and decision makers in government and industry. In particular, they provide information that speaks directly to the accountability requirements of the several arms-length government-business partnership organizations responsible for national tourism marketing and an improved national tourism labour market. Thirdly, the new information and insights have informed requests for further specification of national occupational classifications of relevance to tourism human resource planners and managers. Lastly they have also opened up the feasibility of current work in progress examining a new emerging area of analysis and potential policy 12

13 intervention tourism labour productivity the next tourism research frontier. 7. References Bisaillon, Monique, (2010). Human Resource Module of the Tourism satellite Account, Statistics Canada, catalogue no MPB -- no.66. Ottawa: Statistics Canada. Canadian Tourism Human Resource Council, (2010). Demographic Profile of Tourism Sector Employees. Ottawa: Canadian Tourism Human Resource Council. Chermyshev, Igor, (2009). ILO/UNWTO Joint Project on Employment in the Tourism Industries: Statistics Component, Keynote, Session III, Employment in Tourism Industries Measurement Issues and Case Studies, Fifth UNWTO Global Conference on Tourism Statistics, Tourism: An Engine for Employment Creation, Bali, Indonesia, 30 March 2 April, Conference Board of Canada, (2010). The Future of Canada s Tourism Sector: Economic Recession only a Temporary Reprieve from Labour Shortages. Ottawa: Canadian Tourism Human Resource Council. Hendry, Jennifer (2010). Tourism Employment in Canada September Unpublished Internal Management Report, Canadian Tourism Human Resource Council. October 20, OECD (2000). OECD Manual on Tourism Satellite Accounts and Employment (2000). Paris: Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. Statistics Canada (2010). National Tourism Indicators, Second Quarter Ottawa: Statistics Canada. UNWTO/UN Statistics Division (2008). International Recommendations on Tourism Statistics, Madrid and New York: World Tourism Organization., (2008). Tourism Satellite Account: Recommended Methodological Framework, Madrid and New York: World Tourism Organization. 13