Market Capitalization $10.1 Billion BUY HOLD BUY HOLD
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- Lionel Campbell
- 7 years ago
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1 BUY HOLD SELL A+ A A- B+ B B- C+ C C- D+ D D- E+ E E- F Annual Dividend Rate BUSINESS DESCRIPTION Whole Foods Market, Inc. operates natural and organic foods supermarkets. Its stores offers produce, packaged goods, bulk, frozen, dairy, meat, bakery, prepared foods, coffee, tea, beer, wine, cheese, nutritional supplements, vitamins, body care, pet foods, and household goods. HOLD Sector: Consumer Non-Discretionary Sub-Industry: Food Retail Source: S&P HOLD RATING SINCE 04/22/2016 Weekly Price: (US$) SMA (50) SMA (100) 1 Year 2 Years STOCK PERFORMANCE (%) 3 Mo. 1 Yr. 3 Yr (Ann) Price Change GROWTH (%) Last Qtr 12 Mo. 3 Yr CAGR Revenues Net Income EPS RETURN ON EQUITY (%) Ind Avg S&P 500 Q Q Q Rating History BUY HOLD BUY HOLD Volume in Millions COMPUSTAT for Price and Volume, TheStreet Ratings, Inc. for Rating History P/E COMPARISON RECOMMENDATION We rate () a HOLD. The primary factors that have impacted our rating are mixed - some indicating strength, some showing nesses, with little evidence to justify the expectation of either a positive or negative performance for this stock relative to most other stocks. The company's strengths can be seen in multiple areas, such as its increase in net income, revenue growth and notable return on equity. However, as a counter to these strengths, we find that the stock has had a generally disappointing performance in the past year Ind Avg S&P 500 HIGHLIGHTS The net income growth from the same quarter one year ago has significantly exceeded that of the S&P 500 and the Food & Staples Retailing industry. The net income increased by 54.4% when compared to the same quarter one year prior, rising from $57.00 million to $88.00 million. EPS ANALYSIS¹ ($) Despite its growing revenue, the company underperformed as compared with the industry average of 11.4%. Since the same quarter one year prior, revenues slightly increased by 1.7%. Growth in the company's revenue appears to have helped boost the earnings per share. The current debt-to-equity ratio, 0.33, is low and is below the industry average, implying that there has been successful management of debt levels. Although the company had a debt-to-equity ratio, its quick ratio of 0.82 is somewhat and could be cause for future problems. Q Q Q Q Q Q Q NA = not available NM = not meaningful Q Q Q Q Compustat fiscal year convention is used for all fundamental data items. Q reported significant earnings per share improvement in the most recent quarter compared to the same quarter a year ago. The company has demonstrated a pattern of positive earnings per share growth over the past year. However, we anticipate underperformance relative to this pattern in the coming year. During the past fiscal year, increased its bottom line by earning $1.55 versus $1.49 in the prior year. For the next year, the market is expecting a contraction of 5.8% in earnings ($1.46 versus $1.55). In its most recent trading session, has closed at a price level that was not very different from its closing price of one year earlier. This is probably due to its earnings growth as well as other mixed factors. The fact that the stock is now selling for less than others in its industry in relation to its current earnings is not reason enough to justify a buy rating at this time. Report Date: PAGE 1
2 PEER GROUP ANALYSIS REVENUE GROWTH AND EBITDA MARGIN* Revenue Growth (TTM) -7.5% 17.5% UNFAVORABLE 1% SFS VLGEA ANDE EBITDA Margin (TTM) WMK SVU KR SFM FAVORABLE IMKTA CASY Companies with higher EBITDA margins and revenue growth rates are outperforming companies with lower EBITDA margins and revenue growth rates. Companies for this scatter plot have a market capitalization between $276.8 Million and $33.7 Billion. Companies with NA or NM values do not appear. *EBITDA Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation and Amortization. REVENUE GROWTH AND EARNINGS YIELD Revenue Growth (TTM) -7.5% 17.5% UNFAVORABLE ANDE -4% Earnings Yield (TTM) SFS SFM WMK NGVC CASY KR VLGEA FAVORABLE IMKTA 8% SVU 12% Companies that exhibit both a high earnings yield and high revenue growth are generally more attractive than companies with low revenue growth and low earnings yield. Companies for this scatter plot have revenue growth rates between -6.8% and 17.5%. Companies with NA or NM values do not appear. INDUSTRY ANALYSIS Food and staples retailing is the second largest segment of the consumer staples industry and includes wholesale food distribution, grocery retaining, specialty food stores, and drugstores. Major players are Wal-Mart Stores (WMT), CVS Health (CVS), Walgreens Boots Alliance (WBA), Sysco (SYY), Kroger (KR), Supervalu (SVU), Andersons (ANDE), and Whole Foods Market (), all of which possess unique operational models. The industry is defensive and characterized by stable growth. Food distributors maintain a specific product mix. Grocery stores are usually locally owned and have a fixed client base. They record average annual revenue of $14 million. Supermarkets rely on a distribution network to survive as they do not have enough space to store goods. Specialty stores use merchandising to attract foot traffic. Drugstores focus on prescription customers and sell over-the-counter (OTC) drugs, health and beauty aids, greeting cards, photo-finishing services, and general merchandise. Demand for basic products remains stable regardless of economic conditions. Commodity pricing pressures are being offset by corporate restructurings, which are helping to maintain margins. During periods of growth, the industry tends to outperform. The Food and Drug Administration (FDA) is the regulatory body for food manufacturers and drug retailers. Regulation begins at the initial phases of development and continues through the manufacturing phase and down the supply chain. Law makers are considering legislation to prohibit Canadian pharmacies from selling prescription drugs to US mail-order customers in order to help domestic pharmacies. Prescription drugs account for approximately 10% of the total US medical bill. Also, Medicare favors generic drugs and in doing so influences industry participants. In the past recession, consumer preference shifted towards cost-effective choices such as discount groceries. Premium organic options benefit from the improved economic climate. Lifestyle drugs have been hit hardest. However, baby boomers are now propelling growth in the drugstore segment, which is expected to expand within the consumer staples industry. Increased pharmacy traffic is not necessarily a profit driver, but it triggers impulse purchase of general merchandise and services. The industry s dependable revenue and low beta are commendable during an economic recession, but two factors will curtail long-run performance, rising raw material costs and high valuations. Food and staples retailing remains a stable business, but demand for food products is limited by the small annual US population growth. PEER GROUP: Food & Staples Retailing Recent Market Price/ Net Sales Net Income Ticker Company Name Price ($) Cap ($M) Earnings TTM ($M) TTM ($M) , , SFS SMART & FINAL STORES INC , IMKTA INGLES MARKETS INC , CASY CASEYS GENERAL STORES INC , , KR KROGER CO , , , VLGEA VILLAGE SUPER MARKET , SFM SPROUTS FARMERS MARKET , , NGVC NATURAL GROCERS VITAMIN CTG WMK WEIS MARKETS INC , , SVU SUPERVALU INC , , ANDE ANDERSONS INC ,167 NM 3, The peer group comparison is based on Major Food Retail companies of comparable size. Report Date: PAGE 2
3 Annual Dividend Rate COMPANY DESCRIPTION Whole Foods Market, Inc. operates natural and organic foods supermarkets. Its stores offers produce, packaged goods, bulk, frozen, dairy, meat, bakery, prepared foods, coffee, tea, beer, wine, cheese, nutritional supplements, vitamins, body care, pet foods, and household goods. As of November 2, 2016, the company operated 464 stores in the United States, Canada, and the United Kingdom. Whole Foods Market, Inc. was founded in 1978 and is headquartered in Austin, Texas. 550 Bowie Street Austin, TX USA Phone: Fax: STOCK-AT-A-GLANCE Below is a summary of the major fundamental and technical factors we consider when determining our overall recommendation of shares. It is provided in order to give you a deeper understanding of our rating methodology as well as to paint a more complete picture of a stock's strengths and nesses. It is important to note, however, that these factors only tell part of the story. To gain an even more comprehensive understanding of our stance on the stock, these factors must be assessed in combination with the stock s valuation. Please refer to our Valuation section on page 5 for further information. FACTOR SCORE Growth 3.5 out of 5 stars Measures the growth of both the company's income statement and cash flow. On this factor, has a growth score better than 60% of the stocks we rate. Total Return 2.0 out of 5 stars Measures the historical price movement of the stock. The stock performance of this company has beaten 30% of the companies we cover. Efficiency 5.0 out of 5 stars Measures the strength and historic growth of a company's return on invested capital. The company has generated more income per dollar of capital than 90% of the companies we review. Price volatility 2.0 out of 5 stars Measures the volatility of the company's stock price historically. The stock is less volatile than 30% of the stocks we monitor. Solvency 4.5 out of 5 stars Measures the solvency of the company based on several ratios. The company is more solvent than 80% of the companies we analyze. Income 3.5 out of 5 stars Measures dividend yield and payouts to shareholders. The company's dividend is higher than 60% of the companies we track. THESTREET RATINGS RESEARCH METHODOLOGY TheStreet Ratings' stock model projects a stock's total return potential over a 12-month period including both price appreciation and dividends. Our Buy, Hold or Sell ratings designate how we expect these stocks to perform against a general benchmark of the equities market and interest rates. While our model is quantitative, it utilizes both subjective and objective elements. For instance, subjective elements include expected equities market returns, future interest rates, implied industry outlook and forecasted company earnings. Objective elements include volatility of past operating revenues, financial strength, and company cash flows. Our model gauges the relationship between risk and reward in several ways, including: the pricing drawdown as compared to potential profit volatility, i.e.how much one is willing to risk in order to earn profits; the level of acceptable volatility for highly performing stocks; the current valuation as compared to projected earnings growth; and the financial strength of the underlying company as compared to its stock's valuation as compared to projected earnings growth; and the financial strength of the underlying company as compared to its stock's performance. These and many more derived observations are then combined, ranked, weighted, and scenario-tested to create a more complete analysis. The result is a systematic and disciplined method of selecting stocks. Report Date: PAGE 3
4 Consensus EPS Estimates² ($) IBES consensus estimates are provided by Thomson Financial FINANCIAL ANALYSIS 's gross profit margin for the fourth quarter of its fiscal year 2016 is essentially unchanged when compared to the same period a year ago. The company has grown its sales and net income during the past quarter when compared with the same quarter a year ago, and although its growth in net income has outpaced the industry average, its revenue growth has not. has liquidity. Currently, the Quick Ratio is 0.82 which shows a lack of ability to cover short-term cash needs. The company's liquidity has increased from the same period last year, indicating improving cash flow Q1 FY E 2017(E) 1.50 E 2018(E) During the same period, stockholders' equity ("net worth") has decreased by 14.46% from the same quarter last year. Overall, the key liquidity measurements indicate that the company is in a position in which financial difficulties could develop in the future. INCOME STATEMENT Net Sales ($mil) 3, , EBITDA ($mil) EBIT ($mil) Net Income ($mil) STOCKS TO BUY: TheStreet Quant Ratings has identified a handful of stocks that can potentially TRIPLE in the next 12-months. To learn more visit BALANCE SHEET Cash & Equiv. ($mil) Total Assets ($mil) 6, , Total Debt ($mil) 1, Equity ($mil) 3, , PROFITABILITY Gross Profit Margin 37.63% 37.64% EBITDA Margin 7.92% 8.05% Operating Margin 4.43% 4.92% Sales Turnover Return on Assets 7.99% 9.33% Return on Equity 15.72% 14.22% DEBT Current Ratio Debt/Capital Interest Expense NA Interest Coverage NA SHARE DATA Shares outstanding (mil) Div / share EPS Book value / share Institutional Own % NA NA Avg Daily Volume 5,177,479 5,902,121 2 Sum of quarterly figures may not match annual estimates due to use of median consensus estimates. Report Date: PAGE 4
5 RATINGS HISTORY Our rating for has not changed since 4/22/2016. As of 12/15/2016, the stock was trading at a price of which is 11.0% below its 52-week high of $35.58 and 14.5% above its 52-week low of $ Year Chart BUY: $ HOLD: $33.69 BUY: $32.75 HOLD: $29.76 $60 $50 $40 $30 MOST RECENT RATINGS CHANGES Date Price Action From To 4/22/16 $29.76 Downgrade Buy Hold 3/2/16 $32.75 Upgrade Hold Buy 8/17/15 $33.69 Downgrade Buy Hold 12/15/14 $48.54 No Change Buy Buy Price reflects the closing price as of the date listed, if available RATINGS DEFINITIONS & DISTRIBUTION OF THESTREET RATINGS (as of 12/15/2016) 41.16% Buy - We believe that this stock has the opportunity to appreciate and produce a total return of more than 10% over the next 12 months % Hold - We do not believe this stock offers conclusive evidence to warrant the purchase or sale of shares at this time and that its likelihood of positive total return is roughly in balance with the risk of loss % Sell - We believe that this stock is likely to decline by more than 10% over the next 12 months, with the risk involved too great to compensate for any possible returns. TheStreet Ratings 14 Wall Street, 15th Floor New York, NY Research Contact: Sales Contact: VALUATION HOLD. This stock's P/E ratio indicates a discount compared to an average of for the Food & Staples Retailing industry and a discount compared to the S&P 500 average of To use another comparison, its price-to-book ratio of 3.13 indicates valuation on par with the S&P 500 average of 2.88 and a discount versus the industry average of The current price-to-sales ratio is well below the S&P 500 average, but above the industry average. Upon assessment of these and other key valuation criteria, WHOLE FOODS MARKET INC proves to trade at a discount to investment alternatives within the industry. Price/Earnings Peers Average. An average P/E ratio can signify an industry neutral price for a stock and an average growth expectation. is trading at a valuation on par with its peers. Price/Projected Earnings Peers Premium. A higher price-to-projected earnings ratio than its peers can signify a more expensive stock or higher future growth expectations. is trading at a premium to its peers. Price/Book 3.13 Peers 3.84 Discount. A lower price-to-book ratio makes a stock more attractive to investors seeking stocks with lower market values per dollar of equity on the balance sheet. is trading at a discount to its peers. Price/Sales 0.64 Peers 0.54 Premium. In the absence of P/E and P/B multiples, the price-to-sales ratio can display the value investors are placing on each dollar of sales. is trading at a premium to its industry on this measurement. DISCLAIMER: Price/CashFlow 9.04 Peers 8.72 Average. The P/CF ratio, a stock s price divided by the company's cash flow from operations, is useful for comparing companies with different capital requirements or financing structures. is trading at a valuation on par to its peers. Price to Earnings/Growth NM Peers 2.17 Neutral. The PEG ratio is the stock s P/E divided by the consensus estimate of long-term earnings growth. Faster growth can justify higher price multiples. 's negative PEG ratio makes this valuation measure meaningless. Earnings Growth lower higher 4.02 Peers 1.22 Higher. Elevated earnings growth rates can lead to capital appreciation and justify higher price-to-earnings ratios. is expected to have an earnings growth rate that significantly exceeds its peers. Sales Growth lower higher 2.17 Peers 2.96 Lower. A sales growth rate that trails the industry implies that a company is losing market share. significantly trails its peers on the basis of sales growth The opinions and information contained herein have been obtained or derived from sources believed to be reliable, but TheStreet Ratings cannot guarantee its accuracy and completeness, and that of the opinions based thereon. Data is provided via the COMPUSTAT Xpressfeed product from Standard &Poor's, a division of The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., as well as other third-party data providers. TheStreet Ratings is a division of TheStreet, Inc., which is a publisher. This research report contains opinions and is provided for informational purposes only. You should not rely solely upon the research herein for purposes of transacting securities or other investments, and you are encouraged to conduct your own research and due diligence, and to seek the advice of a qualified securities professional, before you make any investment. None of the information contained in this report constitutes, or is intended to constitute a recommendation by TheStreet Ratings of any particular security or trading strategy or a determination by TheStreet Ratings that any security or trading strategy is suitable for any specific person. To the extent any of the information contained herein may be deemed to be investment advice, such information is impersonal and not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person. Your use of this report is governed by TheStreet, Inc.'s Terms of Use found at Report Date: PAGE 5
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