Market Capitalization $9.6 Billion

Transcription

1 BUY HOLD SELL A+ A A- B+ B B- C+ C C- D+ D D- E+ E E- F BUY July 10, 2016 BUY RATING SINCE 04/20/2012 TARGET PRICE $12.64 BUSINESS DESCRIPTION KeyCorp operates as the bank holding company for KeyBank National Association that provides various retail and commercial banking services to individual, corporate, and institutional clients in the United States. Sector: Financial Services Sub-Industry: Regional Banks Source: S&P Weekly Price: (US$) SMA (50) SMA (100) 1 Year 2 Years STOCK PERFORMANCE (%) 3 Mo. 1 Yr. 3 Yr (Ann) Price Change TARGET PRICE $ GROWTH (%) Last Qtr 12 Mo. 3 Yr CAGR Revenues Net Income EPS Rating History BUY RETURN ON EQUITY (%) Ind Avg S&P 500 Q Q Q P/E COMPARISON Volume in Millions COMPUSTAT for Price and Volume, TheStreet Ratings, Inc. for Rating History RECOMMENDATION We rate () a BUY. This is driven by some important positives, which we believe should have a greater impact than any nesses, and should give investors a better performance opportunity than most stocks we cover. The company's strengths can be seen in multiple areas, such as its revenue growth, good cash flow from operations, expanding profit margins and attractive valuation levels. We feel its strengths outweigh the fact that the company has had sub par growth in net income Ind Avg S&P 500 HIGHLIGHTS 's revenue growth has slightly outpaced the industry average of 0.0%. Since the same quarter one year prior, revenues slightly increased by 3.8%. This growth in revenue does not appear to have trickled down to the company's bottom line, displayed by a decline in earnings per share. EPS ANALYSIS¹ ($) Net operating cash flow has significantly increased by % to $ million when compared to the same quarter last year. In addition, has also vastly surpassed the industry average cash flow growth rate of %. Q Q Q Q Q Q Q NA = not available NM = not meaningful Q Q Compustat fiscal year convention is used for all fundamental data items. 's earnings per share declined by 15.4% in the most recent quarter compared to the same quarter a year ago. This company has reported somewhat volatile earnings recently. But, we feel it is poised for EPS growth in the coming year. During the past fiscal year, increased its bottom line by earning $1.06 versus $1.04 in the prior year. This year, the market expects an improvement in earnings ($1.09 versus $1.06). The gross profit margin for is currently very high, coming in at 84.92%. Regardless of 's high profit margin, it has managed to decrease from the same period last year. Despite the mixed results of the gross profit margin, the net profit margin of 16.87% trails the industry average. PAGE 1

2 PEER GROUP ANALYSIS REVENUE GROWTH AND EBITDA MARGIN* Revenue Growth (TTM) -5% 40% UNFAVORABLE ZION 35% CFG RF EBITDA Margin (TTM) SIVB CIT FRC FITB HBAN MTB FAVORABLE SBNY 65% Companies with higher EBITDA margins and revenue growth rates are outperforming companies with lower EBITDA margins and revenue growth rates. Companies for this scatter plot have a market capitalization between $4.8 Billion and $18.3 Billion. Companies with NA or NM values do not appear. *EBITDA Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation and Amortization. REVENUE GROWTH AND EARNINGS YIELD Revenue Growth (TTM) -5% 40% FRC UNFAVORABLE ZION 4% CFG SBNY SIVB MTB Earnings Yield (TTM) FITB HBAN RF FAVORABLE CIT 20% Companies that exhibit both a high earnings yield and high revenue growth are generally more attractive than companies with low revenue growth and low earnings yield. Companies for this scatter plot have revenue growth rates between -3.9% and 39.6%. Companies with NA or NM values do not appear. INDUSTRY ANALYSIS Commercial Banking is a highly fragmented industry. We rate more than 300 publicly traded institutions, ranging from huge Wells Fargo (WFC) to tiny companies such as United Bancshares (UBSI). They compete in a broad market of over 9,000 commercial banks and savings institutions, insured by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation institutions. Historically, commercial banks made most of their profits by capturing the margin between interest paid to depositors and higher rates charged to borrowers. They also raise money by selling bonds and bundles of loans called asset-backed securities. Additional income is earned from deposit and loan fees, as well as securities underwriting, stock trading, and asset management. The banking industry set record profits in previous years before collapsing as real estate prices imploded. This resulted in asset-backed securities being impossible to mark-to-market when the market dried up and diminishing the apparent equity capital position of the banks. The industry was rescued by the U.S. government through direct injections of capital to more than 700 financial institutions under the Troubled Asset Relief Program, or TARP. In the financial crisis, 222 firms failed and were closed by the FDIC. In December 2009, 702 banks, accounting for $402.8 billion in total assets, were on the FDIC s problem bank list and risk being liquidated and sold to er banks. Legislation to strengthen financial industry regulation has been put in place to protect consumers from the worst practices of the credit card banks. Additional reforms designed to protect the industry from institutions from taking on excess leverage are being put in place to reduce systemic risk, regulate derivative financial products, and liquidate financial institutions formerly believed to be too-big-to-fail without a tax-payer bailout. The recovering economy and the new financial reforms serve to return confidence to the commercial banking group. PEER GROUP: Commercial Banks Recent Market Price/ Net Sales Net Income Ticker Company Name Price ($) Cap ($M) Earnings TTM ($M) TTM ($M) , , HBAN HUNTINGTON BANCSHARES , , CIT CIT GROUP INC , , , SBNY SIGNATURE BANK/NY , , ZION ZIONS BANCORPORATION , , SIVB SVB FINANCIAL GROUP , , MTB M & T BANK CORP , , , FITB FIFTH THIRD BANCORP , , , RF REGIONS FINANCIAL CORP , , , FRC FIRST REPUBLIC BANK , , CFG CITIZENS FINANCIAL GROUP INC , , The peer group comparison is based on Major Regional Banks companies of comparable size. PAGE 2

3 COMPANY DESCRIPTION KeyCorp operates as the bank holding company for KeyBank National Association that provides various retail and commercial banking services to individual, corporate, and institutional clients in the United States. The company's Key Community Bank segment offers deposit and investment products; personal finance services and loans, including residential mortgages, home equity, credit cards, and various installment loans for individuals; deposits, investment and credit products, and business advisory services to small businesses; and financial, estate and retirement planning, and asset management services to high-net-worth clients. This segment also provides commercial lending, cash management, equipment leasing, investment and employee benefit programs, succession planning, access to capital markets, derivatives, and foreign exchange services to mid-sized businesses. Its Key Corporate Bank segment offers a suite of banking and capital market products, such as syndicated finance, debt and equity capital market products, commercial payments, equipment finance, commercial mortgage banking, derivatives, foreign exchange, financial advisory, and public finance, as well as commercial mortgage loans for middle market clients comprising consumer, energy, healthcare, industrial, public, real estate, and technology sectors. In addition, KeyCorp provides personal, securities lending, and custody services; access to mutual funds; treasury, investment banking, international banking, and investment management services; public retirement plans, and foundations and endowments plans; and financial services consisting of community development financing, securities underwriting, and brokerage, as well as merchant services. As of December 31, 2015, the company operated 966 retail banking branches and 1,257 automated teller machines in 12 states, as well as a telephone banking call center. KeyCorp was founded in 1849 and is headquartered in Cleveland, Ohio. 127 Public Square Cleveland, OH USA Phone: Employees: STOCK-AT-A-GLANCE Below is a summary of the major fundamental and technical factors we consider when determining our overall recommendation of shares. It is provided in order to give you a deeper understanding of our rating methodology as well as to paint a more complete picture of a stock's strengths and nesses. It is important to note, however, that these factors only tell part of the story. To gain an even more comprehensive understanding of our stance on the stock, these factors must be assessed in combination with the stock s valuation. Please refer to our Valuation section on page 5 for further information. FACTOR SCORE Growth 4.0 out of 5 stars Measures the growth of both the company's income statement and cash flow. On this factor, has a growth score better than 70% of the stocks we rate. Total Return 2.0 out of 5 stars Measures the historical price movement of the stock. The stock performance of this company has beaten 30% of the companies we cover. Efficiency 3.5 out of 5 stars Measures the strength and historic growth of a company's return on invested capital. The company has generated more income per dollar of capital than 60% of the companies we review. Price volatility 2.5 out of 5 stars Measures the volatility of the company's stock price historically. The stock is less volatile than 40% of the stocks we monitor. Solvency 3.0 out of 5 stars Measures the solvency of the company based on several ratios. The company is more solvent than 50% of the companies we analyze. Income 4.0 out of 5 stars Measures dividend yield and payouts to shareholders. The company's dividend is higher than 70% of the companies we track. THESTREET RATINGS RESEARCH METHODOLOGY TheStreet Ratings' stock model projects a stock's total return potential over a 12-month period including both price appreciation and dividends. Our Buy, Hold or Sell ratings designate how we expect these stocks to perform against a general benchmark of the equities market and interest rates. While our model is quantitative, it utilizes both subjective and objective elements. For instance, subjective elements include expected equities market returns, future interest rates, implied industry outlook and forecasted company earnings. Objective elements include volatility of past operating revenues, financial strength, and company cash flows. Our model gauges the relationship between risk and reward in several ways, including: the pricing drawdown as compared to potential profit volatility, i.e.how much one is willing to risk in order to earn profits; the level of acceptable volatility for highly performing stocks; the current valuation as compared to projected earnings growth; and the financial strength of the underlying company as compared to its stock's valuation as compared to projected earnings growth; and the financial strength of the underlying company as compared to its stock's performance. These and many more derived observations are then combined, ranked, weighted, and scenario-tested to create a more complete analysis. The result is a systematic and disciplined method of selecting stocks. PAGE 3

4 Consensus EPS Estimates² ($) IBES consensus estimates are provided by Thomson Financial FINANCIAL ANALYSIS 's gross profit margin for the first quarter of its fiscal year 2016 has decreased when compared to the same period a year ago. Even though sales increased, the net income has decreased. At the same time, stockholders' equity ("net worth") has remained virtually unchanged only increasing by 4.36% from the same quarter last year Q2 FY E 2016(E) 1.29 E 2017(E) STOCKS TO BUY: TheStreet Quant Ratings has identified a handful of stocks that can potentially TRIPLE in the next 12-months. To learn more visit INCOME STATEMENT Net Sales ($mil) 1, , EBITDA ($mil) EBIT ($mil) Net Income ($mil) BALANCE SHEET Cash & Equiv. ($mil) 5, , Total Assets ($mil) 98, , Total Debt ($mil) 11, , Equity ($mil) 11, , PROFITABILITY Gross Profit Margin 84.92% 90.68% EBITDA Margin 40.12% 45.29% Operating Margin 40.13% 45.29% Sales Turnover Return on Assets 0.88% 0.94% Return on Equity 7.69% 8.55% DEBT Current Ratio NA NA Debt/Capital Interest Expense NA NA Interest Coverage NA NA SHARE DATA Shares outstanding (mil) Div / share EPS Book value / share Institutional Own % NA NA Avg Daily Volume 13,445,172 15,851,858 2 Sum of quarterly figures may not match annual estimates due to use of median consensus estimates. PAGE 4

5 RATINGS HISTORY Our rating for has not changed since 4/20/2012. As of 7/7/2016, the stock was trading at a price of which is 29.2% below its 52-week high of $15.46 and 10.7% above its 52-week low of $ Year Chart BUY: $ $16 $14 $12 MOST RECENT RATINGS CHANGES Date Price Action From To 7/7/14 $14.36 No Change Buy Buy Price reflects the closing price as of the date listed, if available RATINGS DEFINITIONS & DISTRIBUTION OF THESTREET RATINGS (as of 7/7/2016) 38.28% Buy - We believe that this stock has the opportunity to appreciate and produce a total return of more than 10% over the next 12 months % Hold - We do not believe this stock offers conclusive evidence to warrant the purchase or sale of shares at this time and that its likelihood of positive total return is roughly in balance with the risk of loss % Sell - We believe that this stock is likely to decline by more than 10% over the next 12 months, with the risk involved too great to compensate for any possible returns. TheStreet Ratings 14 Wall Street, 15th Floor New York, NY Research Contact: Sales Contact: VALUATION BUY. This stock's P/E ratio indicates a discount compared to an average of for the Commercial Banks industry and a significant discount compared to the S&P 500 average of Conducting a second comparison, its price-to-book ratio of 0.83 indicates a significant discount versus the S&P 500 average of 2.77 and a discount versus the industry average of The current price-to-sales ratio is above the S&P 500 average, but below the industry average. Upon assessment of these and other key valuation criteria, proves to trade at a discount to investment alternatives within the industry. Price/Earnings Peers Average. An average P/E ratio can signify an industry neutral price for a stock and an average growth expectation. is trading at a valuation on par with its peers. Price/Projected Earnings 8.51 Peers Discount. A lower price-to-projected earnings ratio than its peers can signify a less expensive stock or lower future growth expectations. is trading at a discount to its peers. Price/Book 0.83 Peers 1.03 Discount. A lower price-to-book ratio makes a stock more attractive to investors seeking stocks with lower market values per dollar of equity on the balance sheet. is trading at a discount to its peers. Price/Sales 2.03 Peers 2.27 Discount. In the absence of P/E and P/B multiples, the price-to-sales ratio can display the value investors are placing on each dollar of sales. is trading at a discount to its industry on this measurement. DISCLAIMER: Price/CashFlow 3.54 Peers 7.13 Discount. The P/CF ratio, a stock s price divided by the company's cash flow from operations, is useful for comparing companies with different capital requirements or financing structures. is trading at a significant discount to its peers. Price to Earnings/Growth 2.82 Peers 2.53 Premium. The PEG ratio is the stock s P/E divided by the consensus estimate of long-term earnings growth. Faster growth can justify higher price multiples. trades at a premium to its peers. Earnings Growth lower higher Peers Lower. Elevated earnings growth rates can lead to capital appreciation and justify higher price-to-earnings ratios. However, is expected to significantly trail its peers on the basis of its earnings growth rate. Sales Growth lower higher 4.22 Peers 0.15 Higher. A sales growth rate that exceeds the industry implies that a company is gaining market share. has a sales growth rate that significantly exceeds its peers. The opinions and information contained herein have been obtained or derived from sources believed to be reliable, but TheStreet Ratings cannot guarantee its accuracy and completeness, and that of the opinions based thereon. Data is provided via the COMPUSTAT Xpressfeed product from Standard &Poor's, a division of The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., as well as other third-party data providers. TheStreet Ratings is a division of TheStreet, Inc., which is a publisher. This research report contains opinions and is provided for informational purposes only. You should not rely solely upon the research herein for purposes of transacting securities or other investments, and you are encouraged to conduct your own research and due diligence, and to seek the advice of a qualified securities professional, before you make any investment. None of the information contained in this report constitutes, or is intended to constitute a recommendation by TheStreet Ratings of any particular security or trading strategy or a determination by TheStreet Ratings that any security or trading strategy is suitable for any specific person. To the extent any of the information contained herein may be deemed to be investment advice, such information is impersonal and not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person. Your use of this report is governed by TheStreet, Inc.'s Terms of Use found at PAGE 5