NATIONAL BEEF UPDATE MAY 2015

Transcription

1 NATIONAL BEEF UPDATE MAY 215

2 NATIONAL SUMMARY MAY 215 The beef industry is emerging from a challenging couple of years. Drought-induced turnoff in Queensland and New South Wales kept beef prices low around the country during a period when the world price climbed to record highs. On a positive front, some of the challenges are now reversing. The past six months have seen the return of better seasonal conditions, and domestic prices have followed higher international prices. While an El Nino event in 215 would impact conditions later in the year, good rainfall is predicted for the short-term across most regions. This would support an increase in the number of cattle being retained for breeding and increase demand for restockers; both likely to result in strong prices in the year ahead. Prices are also being supported by strong export demand from the USA and Japan, while domestic consumption remains flat. Weather Rainfall February-April 215 Rainfall outlook May-July 215 Rainfall decile ranges Growing season rainfall Source: Bureau of Meterology (BoM) Herd size and slaughter The national beef herd is forecast to decline Proportion of cattle slaughtered in Herd size (millions) Slaughter ( s) Cows and heifers Bulls, bullocks and steers Calves Herd Size size (LHS) Herd size Size forecast Forecast (LHS) Total Slaughter slaughter (3 month moving average) -( RHS - (RHS) ) Data: Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics & Sciences (ABARES) Domestic demand Per capita consumption of beef is declining in Australia Consumption per person (kg) Beef and Beef veal and Veal Lamb Beef and and mutton Veal (Forecast) Pork Lamb and Mutton Chicken Beef and Lamb veal and (forecast) Mutton (Forecast) Lamb Pork and mutton (forecast) Pork Pork (forecast) (Forecast) Chicken (forecast) Data: ABS, ABARES Chicken Chicken (Forecast) Although population growth is keeping total domestic beef consumption static, on a per capita basis, Australians have continued to substitute red meat with chicken and pork since the late 197s.

3 Export performance $ May 213 $.99USD May 214 $.93USD May 215 $.79USD The size of the US beef herd has been declining since the mid-199s prompting a steady increase in the US beef import price. In 214, a lower Australian dollar, additional drought-induced supply in Australia and increased import demand from the USA saw the value of Australian beef exported to the USA double, as well as a more modest increase to other export markets. Billions ($) The USA overtook Japan as Australia s most valuable beef export market in USA Japan ChinaSouth South Korea Indonesia Korea USA (LHS) Japan (LHS) China (LHS) South Korea (LHS) Indonesia (LHS) Export share Share (RHS) 3% 28% 26% 24% 22% 2% 18% 16% 14% 12% 1% 8% 6% 4% 2% % Data: Global Trade Information Services (GTIS) Frozen Fresh/Chilled Live export Export Hides* Export value Value Price Eastern Young Cattle Indicator c/kg CWT Jun-1 Aug-1 Aug-1 Oct-1 Nov-1 Feb-11 Jan-11 Mar-11 May-11 Aug-11 Jul-11 Sep-11 Nov-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Beef prices reached record highs in 215 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Dec-12 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 Jun-13 Aug-13 Nov-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 May-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Aug-14 Oct-14 Dec-14 Feb-15 Feb-15 May-15 Apr-15 The US import price may have peaked in September 214, however domestic prices are expected to remain high as the US import price is still at historic highs and re-stocker demand will limit domestic supply. Data: Meat & Livestock Australia (MLA) Medium weight steer - C3 4-5kg

4 NEW SOUTH WALES MAY 215 Cattle slaughter in New South Wales has been the highest in 1 years as producers first struggled to feed stock after consecutive seasons of below average rainfall, but now try to take advantage of the long-awaited higher beef prices. The high rate of turnoff has meant an accumulation of stock at abattoirs. There is likely to be demand for restocking animals as promising rainfall is forecast. The proportion of cows and heifers being slaughtered has also fallen indicating that beef producers are getting set for herd rebuilding. Weather Rainfall February-April 215 Rainfall outlook May-July 215 Rainfall decile ranges Herd size and slaughter Herd size ( s) 6, 5,9 5,8 5,7 5,6 5,5 5,4 5,3 5,2 5,1 Increased slaughtering caused a large drop in herd size which will continue to support prices 5, 13 Jan-5 Jan-7 Jan-9 Jan-11 Jan-13 Jan Slaughter ( s) Proportion of cattle slaughtered in 214 Cows and heifers Bulls, bullocks and steers Calves Herd Size size (LHS) Data: ABS, ABARES Total slaughter (3 month moving average) - (RHS) - From the field Western New South Wales remains in drought with little respite, while eastern New South Wales is generally okay. The Goulburn and Inverell areas are now good, but leading into winter. Markets are led by strong demand from processors, feedlots and preferred supplier backgrounds. Traditional producers remain hesitant with a new range of values. Female kills remain strong with long term herd rebuilding yet to gain momentum. Andrew Hosken Elders, New South Wales and Southern Queensland

5 Export performance High import prices in the USA made it the most valuable export market for NSW in 214 Millions ($) % 3% 25% 2% 15% 1% 5% % Most NSW beef is exported frozen Jun-1 Sep-1 Dec-1 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Aug-12 Nov-12 Feb-13 May-13 Dec-13 Mar-14 Jun-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 May USA Japan China South Korea Indonesia USA Japan China South Korea Indonesia Export share Share (RHS) Frozen Fresh/Chilled Chilled Live export Export Hides* Export value Value Frozen Fresh Live export Hides The value of frozen beef exported to the USA increased 148% in 214. Prices Medium weight steer C3 4-5 c/kg LWT Yearling steer C c/kg LWT Cows D c/kg LWT Current price as at 15 May 215 May 214 Five-year average 8th percentile 2th percentile Beef prices are likely to remain strong c/kg LWT Medium weight steer - C3 4-5kg

6 NORTHERN TERRITORY MAY 215 Northern Territory export markets have recovered since the live export ban in June 211. While the number of cattle being exported has grown at a steady rate, the herd size has been maintained. Indonesia remains the primary market for Northern Territory cattle exports although the industry has been able to diversify export markets to include Vietnam, Malaysia and the Philippines. Despite the end of the wet season, feed growing conditions are expected to remain favourable with above average rainfall forecast for the months ahead. Weather Rainfall February-April 215 Rainfall outlook May-July 215 Rainfall decile ranges Herd size and cattle exported Herd size ( s) 2,3 2,2 2,1 2, 1,9 1,8 1,7 Increased slaughtering causes a large drop in herd size which will continue to support prices 1, Herd size Size (LHS) Live export Export (RHS) no. Data: ABS, ABARES Exported ( s) Live export increased 43% in 214. From the field After a low quota from Indonesia in the first quarter, it was a relief to see the second quarter with 25, head enter the live export market. While numbers are scarce, it will be interesting to see where the market goes in May and June. Strong relationships with trade partners have supported the industry in increasing export to emerging markets. It is encouraging to see Vietnam as a new market. This market is still expanding and, with a focus on animal welfare and the trade relationship, the market looks strong. Tom Kennedy Elders, Far North Queensland and Northern Territory

7 Export performance 35 Vietnam is emerging as a significant export market for Northern Territory cattle 8% 3 7% 25 6% % 4% 3% 2% 5 1% % Jun-1 - Sep-1 - Dec-1 - Mar-11 Apr - Jun-11 Jul - Sep-11 Oct - Dec-11 Jan - 12 Mar-12 Apr - 12 Jun-12 Aug - 12 Sep-12 Nov - 12 Dec-12 Feb - 13 Mar-13 May - 13 Jun-13 Sep - 13 Dec-13 - Mar-14 - Jun-14 - Sep-14 Oct - Dec-14 Jan - 15 May Mar Indonesia Vietnam Malaysia Philippines Brunei Darussalam Millions ($) Indonesia Vietnam Malaysia Philippines Brunei Darussalam Export Share share (RHS) Frozen Fresh/Chilled Live export Hides Export value Prices After almost 1 years of stagnant prices, live cattle export prices have enjoyed a recent rally $/head FOB Darwin The value of live export to Indonesia increased 68% in 214. Live export cattle $/head Current This time last year Five-year average 8th percentile 2th percentile

8 QUEENSLAND MAY 215 Queensland has experienced below-average rainfall over the past 36 months, which has created significant challenges for Queensland s beef producers. If the Bureau s forecast is accurate, some respite will come with above median rainfall expected for much of the state in the months ahead. Most grazing country is expected to receive a warmer and wetter than normal dry season which will improve conditions for cattle. The USA has become a significant export market for frozen beef from Queensland. Weather Rainfall February-April 215 Rainfall outlook May-July 215 Rainfall decile ranges Herd size and slaughter Herd size ( s) 12,7 12,5 12,3 12,1 11,9 11,7 11,5 11,3 11,1 Higher slaughter rates are unsustainable as producers look to rebuild herds Slaughter ( s) Proportion of cattle slaughtered in 214 Cows and heifers Bulls, bullocks and steers Calves Herd size (LHS) Total slaughter (3 month moving average) - (RHS) Data: ABS, ABARES From the field Major sell-down continues as western Queensland remains severely drought-affected. The south and south-east have had some respite, with central Queensland and Highlands remaining very good. Processors and feedlotters are the strength of the market, with feedlot capacity well-secured. Kill capacity refilled quickly after the Easter break with processors active and currently in front of kill demand. Supply difficulties are anticipated for at least the second half of 215, as herd rebuilding has not commenced and continued live export demand forces operators east and south to a wider supply funnel. Andrew Hosken Elders, New South Wales and southern Queensland

9 Export performance 1,3 1,2 The USA overtook Japan in 214 to become Queensland s most valuable export market 3% 1,1 1, 25% 9 8 2% Millions ($) % 1% 5% USA Japan South Korea China Indonesia % USA Japan South Korea China Indonesia Export Share share (RHS) Frozen Fresh/Chilled Live export Hides Export value The majority of beef exported from Queensland is frozen Frozen Fresh Live export Hides The value of beef exports to the USA increased 123% in 214. Prices Medium weight steer C3 4-5 c/kg LWT Yearling steer C c/kg LWT Cows D c/kg LWT Current price as at 15 May 215 May 214 Five-year average 8th percentile 2th percentile c/kg LWT After declining or flat beef prices for the past 1 years, beef prices were higher in 214 Jun-1 Aug-1 Nov-1 Feb-11 May-11 Aug-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Sep-12 Dec-12 Mar-13 Jun-13 Nov-13 Feb-14 May-14 Aug-14 Oct-14 Feb-15 May-15 Medium weight steer - C3 4-5kg

10 SOUTH AUSTRALIA MAY 215 A steadily increasing slaughter rate since 28, declining herd size, strong export demand and above average rainfall forecast over the next few months are likely to keep beef prices in South Australia supported. Similar to other states, the USA became South Australia s most valuable export market in 214, while beef exports to South Australia s other main markets remained stable. Weather Rainfall February-April 215 Rainfall outlook May-July 215 Rainfall decile ranges Herd size and slaughter The reduction in the South Australian herd size will help maintain beef price Proportion of cattle slaughtered in 214 Herd size ( s) 1,25 1,2 1,15 1,1 1,5 1, Slaughter ( s) Cows and heifers Bulls, bullocks and steers Calves Herd Herd Size size (LHS) (LHS) Data: ABS, ABARES Total slaughter (3 (3 month moving average) - (RHS) - From the field South Australia is experiencing a very dry period with isolated areas of the state experiencing good rainfall. Early summer rains combined with record prices and strong processor, feedlot and backgrounds demand drove the cattle price up by $15 per head. Cattle prices have slipped back since the drier conditions, allowing cattle suitable for processing or feedlot to make reasonable returns. Lighter cattle hold good value for producers with adequate feed to carry them through. The autumn break is expected to lift prices overnight and allow producers to take advantage of the opportunities that lie ahead. Peter Homann Elders, Victoria/Riverina and South Australia

11 Export performance Millions ($) The value of beef exported from South Australia more than tripled in % 4% 35% 3% 25% 2% 15% 1% 5% USA South Korea Japan China Russia USA South Korea Japan China Russia Export Share share (RHS) Frozen Fresh/Chilled Live export Hides Export value % Most beef from South Australia was exported frozen in 214 Frozen Fresh Live export Hides The value of frozen beef exports to the USA increased 477% in 214. Prices Medium weight steer C3 4-5 c/kg LWT Yearling steer C c/kg LWT Cows D c/kg LWT Current price as at 15 May 215 May 214 Five-year average 8th percentile 2th percentile The beef export boom to the USA helped drive South Australian beef prices higher in 214 c/kg LWT Jun-1 Jul-1 Aug-1 Sep-1 Oct-1 Nov-1 Dec-1 Dec-1 Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11 Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Oct-11 Feb-12 Jan-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Apr-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Nov-12 Mar-13 Feb-13 Medium weight weight steer steer - C3-4 C3-4 5kg - 5kg Apr-13 May-13 May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Dec-13 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 Mar-14 May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Jun-14 Nov-14 Oct-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15 Jan-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 May-15

12 TASMANIA MAY 215 Declining herd numbers and strong international demand will continue to support Tasmanian beef prices in the year ahead. Tasmania remains unique in Australia as a premium chilled beef exporter, primarily to Japan, however the exceptional US import price for frozen beef saw the value of beef exported to the USA double last year. While graziers enjoy current beef prices, there is some concern about feed availability heading into winter with little useful rain recently and temperatures starting to drop. Weather Rainfall February-April 215 Rainfall outlook May-July 215 Rainfall decile ranges Herd size and slaughter Herd size ( s) Falling cattle numbers and strong export demand will help support beef prices Slaughter ( s) Proportion of cattle slaughtered in 214 Cows and heifers Bulls, bullocks and steers Calves Beef Herd Herd size(lhs) (LHS) Data: ABS, ABARES Total slaughter (3 (3 month moving average) (RHS). - From the field Good rains in most areas occurred mid-late summer but warm windy weather and little rain since has created concern that we might be facing a failed autumn break. Processor backlogs have created some issues for producers in a declining feed environment. Recent colder weather will have producers stocktaking fodder reserves for the winter and looking at options to boost supplies if needed. Focusing on condition score of breeders going into winter will be a critical management tool in allocating resources as the season progresses. PTIC Heifers and 1st calvers should be a priority to ensure they get off to a good start post calving and get back in calf early. Expansion of the Tasmanian Freight Equalisation Scheme to provide freight assistance for exporters will provide much needed relief for local export processors and give them confidence to continue to capture market share for Tasmanian producers to meet the ever-growing overseas demand for product. David Robertson Rural Bank, Tasmania

13 Export performance Millions ($) Tasmanian beef exporters reacted to strong demand from the USA in 214 5% 45% 4% 35% 3% 25% 2% 15% 1% 5% Japan USA South China Korea Japan USA South Korea China Egypt Export share Share (RHS) Frozen Fresh/Chilled Live export Hides Export value Egypt % Most Tasmanian beef is exported chilled. There is a more even split between fresh and frozen beef exports in 214 Frozen Chilled Hides The value of beef exports to the USA increased 1% in 214. Prices Yearling steer C c/kg LWT Cows D c/kg LWT Current price as at 15 May 215 May 214 Five-year average 8th percentile 2th percentile Tasmanian beef prices followed international prices higher in c/kg LWT Jun-1 - Jul-1 Aug-1 Sep-1 - Oct-1 Nov-1 Dec Dec-1-1 Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11 Apr Apr May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 - Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 - Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 - Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr Apr May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 - Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 - Mar-13 Apr-13 May Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep - 13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 - Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 - Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 - Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct - 14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 Jan Jan Feb-15 Mar-15 May Apr-15 - May-15 Medium weight steer - C3 4-5kg

14 VICTORIA MAY 215 Slaughter rates in Victoria have been increasing in recent years. Cattle numbers recovered after the millennium drought and rose further still in 214 as high beef prices drew more cattle to market. High slaughter rates are now impacting the herd size. At the recent high country calf sales, the number of cattle offered was higher and prices were near the record highs of 211. A forecast wetter than normal autumn bodes well for pasture growth heading into winter. Weather Rainfall February-April 215 Rainfall outlook May-July 215 Rainfall decile ranges Herd size and slaughter Herd size ( s) 2,7 2,6 2,5 2,4 2,3 2,2 2,1 2, Higher slaughter rates will not be sustainable as the Victorian herd size declines Slaughter ( s) Proportion of cattle slaughtered in 214 Cows and heifers Bulls, bullocks and steers Calves Herd size (LHS) Data: ABS, ABARES Total slaughter (3 month moving average) - (RHS) From the field The current season s conditions have been as good as those in living memory for most in the High Country. Throughout the remainder of Gippsland, conditions have generally been favourable. In conjunction with an uplift in prices since November, this has seen increased confidence in the local beef industry. - Michael Turner Rural Finance, Victoria North-eastern Victoria has experienced a dry end to summer, with feed rapidly disappearing across the area. Improved phalaris and ryegrass pastures have provided the bulk of recent feed, allowing cattle to hang on and remain in good condition. Supplementary feeding has started as the weather is cooling and producers start dry sowing pasture paddocks, as they await the autumn break. - Warren Vogel Rural Finance, Victoria

15 Export performance The USA accounts for one third of the value of Victorian beef exports Millions ($) % 3% 25% 2% 15% 1% 5% % USA China Japan Indonesia South Korea USA China Japan Indonesia South Korea Export Share share (RHS) Frozen Fresh/Chilled Live export Hides Export value Most beef from Victoria was exported frozen in 214 Frozen Fresh Live export Hides The value of frozen beef exports to the USA increased 122% in 214. Prices Current price as at 15 May 215 May 214 Five-year average 8th percentile 2th percentile Medium weight steer C3 4-5 c/kg LWT Yearling steer C c/kg LWT Cows D c/kg LWT c/kg LWT Jun-1 Victorian beef prices reached a record high in February 215 Sep-1 Dec-1 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Aug-12 Nov-12 Feb-13 May-13 Dec-13 Mar-14 Jun-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Medium weight steer - C3 4-5kg May-15

16 WESTERN AUSTRALIA MAY 215 The Western Australian herd has been in decline since 29, initially due to dry conditions and now because exceptionally high beef prices continue to draw cattle onto the market. Rainfall over the wet season has been above-average with high temperatures providing good pasture growth. While most live export cattle continue to go to Indonesia, Israel has emerged as an export market for Western Australian cattle. Weather Rainfall February-April 215 Rainfall outlook May-July 215 Rainfall decile ranges Herd size and slaughter The reducing herd size will support beef prices Proportion of cattle slaughtered in 214 Herd size ( s) 2,3 2,25 2,2 2,15 2,1 2,5 2, 1,95 1,9 1,85 1, Slaughter ( s) Cows and heifers Bulls, bullocks and steers Herd Size size (LHS) (LHS) Data: ABS, ABARES Total slaughter (3 (3 month month moving moving average) average) - (RHS) - (RHS) From the field Key indicators of the current export and processing cattle markets are to remain positive and buoyant. Record demand on international markets is having positive impacts on export, feeder and slaughter cattle markets. Local processors are competing with live export prices to secure slaughter cattle for the local and box beef markets overseas. Pastoralists have commenced mustering and delivering cattle in the Kimberley after a good wet season. Rainfall has been good further south between the Pilbara and Goldfields. Southern Western Australia is looking for seasonal opening rains, however conditions are promising with general rains in the agricultural zone from recent cyclonic activity. Historical breeder numbers are down as producers capitalise on record grinding beef prices. Geoff Shipp Elders, Western Australia

17 Export performance 12 Live cattle exports to Indonesia rose again in % 1 3% 8 25% Millions ($) 6 4 2% 15% 1% 2 5% Indonesia Israel Japan South Korea Indonesia Israel Japan South Korea Malaysia Export share Share (RHS) Frozen Fresh/Chilled Live export Hides Export value Malaysia % Live export accounts for more than half of Western Australian beef exports Frozen Fresh Live export Hides Prices Medium weight steer C3 4-5 c/kg LWT Yearling steer C c/kg LWT Cows D c/kg LWT Current price as at 15 May 215 May 214 Five-year average 8th percentile 2th percentile High beef prices are encouraging graziers to sell cattle despite declining herd numbers c/kg LWT Jun-1 Sep-1 Dec-1 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Aug-12 Nov-12 Feb-13 May-13 Dec-13 Mar-14 Jun-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 May-15 The value of live export to Indonesia increased 3% in 214. Yearling feeder steers - C2 33-4kg

18 About Rural Bank and Rural Finance Rural Bank has been a wholly-owned subsidiary of Bendigo and Adelaide Bank Limited since 21 and is the only Australian-owned and operated dedicated agribusiness bank in the country. From 1 July 214, Victorian agribusiness lender, Rural Finance joined Rural Bank as a division of Bendigo and Adelaide Bank Limited. As a specialist rural lender, Rural Finance has been fostering the sustainable economic growth of rural and regional Victoria for more than 65 years. Together, Rural Bank and Rural Finance are supporting farmers and farming communities by providing them with specialist financial tools, industry insights and investment into the future of the Australian agribusiness sector. Rural Bank s specialist farm finance tools are available nationally via a network of banking partners, including Bendigo Bank and Community Bank branches and Elders Rural Services. About Ag Answers Ag Answers is a specialist insights division of Rural Bank and Rural Finance. Recognising that good information is the key to making good business decisions, Ag Answers provides research and analysis into commodities, farmland values, farm business performance and topical agricultural issues to enable farmers to make informed decisions. About the Research The National Beef Update compiles information to present a state-by-state analysis of the Australian beef sector. As livestock specialists, Elders Rural Services offers insight into local market conditions for the beef sector. We thank Elders for their valuable contribution to this report by providing this commentary. For further information: E ag.answers@ruralfinance.com.au P Authored by: David Swain, Ag Achiever Matthew Ough, Ag Answers Analyst Jonathan Creese, Manager Ag Answers P ruralbank.com.au P ruralfinance.com.au The information herein is believed to be reliable and has been obtained from public sources believed to be reliable. Rural Bank and Rural Finance make no representation as to the accuracy or completeness of such information. Opinions, estimates and projections in this report constitute the current judgement of the author as of the date of this report. They do not necessarily reflect the opinions of Rural Bank and Rural Finance and are subject to change without notice. Rural Bank and Rural Finance has no obligation to update, modify or amend this report or to otherwise notify a recipient thereof in the event that any opinion, forecast or estimate set forth herein, changes or subsequently becomes inaccurate. This report is provided for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon without consulting your legal and/or tax professional. Copyright Rural Bank Ltd ABN AFSL/Australian Credit Licence and Rural Finance a Division of Bendigo and Adelaide Bank Ltd ABN AFSL/Australian Credit Licence

19 P ruralbank.com.au P ruralfinance.com.au