Platts Dry Bulk Market Survey

Transcription

1 SPECIAL SPECIAL REPORT REPORT: SHIPPING August 2015 Platts Dry Bulk Market Survey 89% of respondents felt the dry bulk freight market is at least one year away from recovery; 50% see recovery only in 3-5 years time 55% indicated tonnage oversupply as the main issue for the dry bulk market 42% indicated tonnage scrapping, new sources of demand and vessel ownership consolidation would help improve freight rates; 32% said tonnage scrapping was the most important driver in improving freight rates 41% think all vessel sectors are responsible for capping dry bulk recovery; 33% blamed the Capesize segment for capping recovery 54% felt lower bunker prices are beneficial to both charterers and shipowners depending on voyage type and operational expertise; 35% said lower bunker prices weren t helping shipowners as they have to share their savings Respondents were divided on the impact eco-efficient vessels have on the global dry bulk fleet; 43% thought they have no significant impact, while 34% said they have a positive influence on freight and 23% felt they have a negative influence

2 POTENTIAL MARKET RECOVERY The currently crippled global dry bulk freight market is expected to take at least a year to hit the road to recovery, a Platts survey of shipping market participants showed. The survey conducted in July involved more than 100 dry bulk market participants, with respondents including shipowners, ship-operators, charterers, shipbrokers and analysts. Those polled represented all dry bulk segments across the Capesize, Panamax, Supramax and Handysize markets. As it turned out, optimists find themselves in a minority as the bulk of respondents, making up a whopping 89%, feel the dry bulk freight market will need a minimum of one year to find its way to the thorny path of recovery. The majority (54%) of industry players questioned are not expecting any positive changes for at least three more years. The dry bulk market will start recovering in: 6-12 months 1-2 years 3-5 years Won't recover in the near future Among participants occupying various roles, interestingly, shipowners were more pessimistic than charterers. While 73% of shipowners said the market would need 3-5 years to recover, 41% of charterers felt the turnaround would happen in less than two years. However, both camps were unanimous that freight rates will not be shooting up within the next 12 months. Respondents in the Capesize segment had the gloomiest outlook of them all. Some 66% of all respondents who focus on Capesize business pegged the recovery to take longer than three years, while 53% of Panamax, 54% of Supramax and 45% of Handy market respondents saw recovery occurring in two years. THE MORE THE MERRIER? According to the survey s results, shipping professionals are still naming the all-time favorite tonnage oversupply as the main reason for the currently sorry state of the dry bulk freight market. Despite reasonable growth in demand across the key commodities, it remains outstripped by the availability of dry bulk vessels around the globe, sources said. This is a message from the shipowner that is saying, There are enough ships now. Don t order new ones, said a ship-operating respondent. Main issue for the dry freight market Oversupply of tonnage China & Europe push towards greener energy Low ton-mile demand All of these factors The dry bulk market will start recovering in: Capesize Panamax Supramax Handysize 6-12 months 1-2 years 3-5 years Won't recover in the near future Other SPECIAL REPORT 2

3 In the meantime charterers seem to argue that the currently depressed dry bulk market can provide the right people with great investment opportunities if recovery does happen in the next two years. According to sources among charterers, shipoowners with the cash may be smart to take advantage of historically low asset prices by placing new vessel orders now and having them delivered by the time freight rates rebound. This opinion however is not shared by some analysts, who believe that a new wave of newbuilding activity may only further increase the supply of tonnage and keep the lid on any potential upswings. NOTHING LIKE A BLOWTORCH With the oversupply of tonnage being identified as the main factor behind the bearish dry bulk market, it comes as little surprise that tonnage recycling is seen by respondents as the primary driver for its recovery. As many as 39% of respondents place their hopes on scrapping. However, looking at the dry bulk tonnage profile, many could argue that even if tonnage scrapping is to be the messiah of the troubled market, it is unlikely to take effect within the next twelve months. The inflow of newly built vessels is easily outpacing the scrapping so far this year. According to Braemar ACM Shipbroking, 302 dry bulk vessels of various sizes, totaling 21.8 million dwt have been scrapped so far in At the same time, total deliveries to date have reached 30.7 million dwt. So, the global dry bulk fleet already grew by a net 8.9 million dwt in A further 36.3 million dwt of dry bulk vessel capacity is expected to hit the water by the end of Scrapping forecasts are unclear, but the volume of tonnage recycled is unlikely to be greater than potential deliveries. A total of 118 Capesizes are expected to be delivered in 2015 compared with 74 in 2014, while 139 Panamaxes (147 vessels last year), 300 Supramaxes (155 ships last year) and 217 Handys (137 vessels last year) are expected to enter the market by the end of As some shipping sources indicated, the volume of scrapping might gradually improve due to the heavily regulated environment in which shipowners have to operate. A time may come that shipowners may Global dry bulk fleet deliveries and orderbook 120 (Million dwt) The main driver for improving dry freight rates in the near future will be: Tonnage scrapping New centers of dry bulk commodity demand Consolidation among shipowners All of these factors Other have to consider scrapping their vessels rather than spending substantial amounts of money to get their older vessels passing special survey in due course, which could also help to reduce the supply side, a respondent from a ship-owning company said. Additional incentive may come from long periods of unemployment as some shipowners may find that selling their older vessels for scrap may grant them similar income to the scattered earnings they make in the freight market. According to a shipping analyst, eventually the pressure of both tougher regulations and lack of cash flow from chartering operations will push some companies to part with their ships sooner rather than later. KEEP CALM AND STAND ALONE Except for the blowtorch factor, industry participants had little faith in other potential drivers for market recovery. For example, while China and Europe are determined to steer their economies towards the happy age of green energy, which certainly would not help coal demand, most respondents are not expecting to feel the effect of that in the near future. The green energy impact is not going to be immediate and it is going to take a longer time," the ship-operating respondent said. Similarly, shipowners do not seem to believe that strength may come in numbers as none of them saw consolidation as an effective measure to increase their clout in freight negotiations. If there is a chance for consolidation to be effective, it is likely to happen on the Atlantic side of the dry bulk market as it is much less fragmented than its Pacific counterpart and is limited to fewer players, sources said According to the vast majority of respondents, the imbalance between supply and demand is the ultimate weight on the shoulders of the troubled dry bulk market. At this point the only factors that could tip the scales in the other direction would be those that would substantially cut the supply of tonnage or drastically improve the volume of cargoes. Such forces seem to be largely absent at the moment, sources said Source: Braemar ACM, Platts POINTING FINGERS When things look grim, it is only natural to ask the simple question of who can be blamed for it in the first place. The shipping market in this SPECIAL REPORT 3

4 The dry bulk segment capping the recovery is: Capesize Panamax Having more eco-efficient vessels in the global fleet will have: A positive influence on freight rates Ultramax A negative influence on freight rates Supramax All sectors No significant impact case has demonstrated a remarkable unity as most industry participants blamed everyone in equal measure. Some 41% of respondents believed that all of the dry bulk market segments are contributing to its overall failing health. Though if there was a spider in the web, it would probably be identified as the Capesize market, 33% of respondents said. However, many disagreed with this sentiment, arguing that the influence of the mighty Capesizes, good or bad, is not what it used to be. Each vessel class has its own individual segments, there are very few shared commodities with Panamaxes and the rest," a Capesize ship-owning respondent said. According to a shipping market analyst, the correlations between Capesize and Panamax/Supramax rates were comfortably over 90% five years ago. In recent times, this has changed considerably as earnings for other vessels start to enjoy a life of their own by being completely independent from the Capesizes, he said. Supramax earnings are now about 50% dependent on Capesize earnings, and 50% on Supramax utilization. So, with that in mind, the avalanche of Ultramax supply is definitely going to be as detrimental to Supramax earnings as poor Capesize performance. Also, the merging of Panamax stems to arbitrage with cheaper Capesize rates was not as straightforward as it seemed, market participants said. Very few shippers are financially able to double their position to save a few dollars on voyage rates, while others are not keen on splitting Capesize cargoes which may lead to poor economies of scale and port inefficiencies, a respondent from a ship-owning company said. The true might of the Capesize class lies in the intangible world of the paper market as it makes up the largest part of the Forward Freight Agreement or freight derivatives trade. Additionally, as Capesize vessels are the primary movers of two key dry bulk commodities, namely coal and iron ore, they can serve as an indicator of the overall macro economy. This gives them additional influence on the general sentiment in the dry bulk market, a source with a shipowner said. ECO-SHIPS LOSING CHARM Eco-ships have been considered the darlings of the dry bulk market for a while now. However, as survey results show, not everyone shares Like what you ve read? For more dry freight news, prices and analysis, take a free 5 day trial to Platts Dry Freight Wire REQUEST A FREE TRIAL SPECIAL REPORT 4

5 the opinion that eco-vessels have any noteworthy influence on the general state of affairs. The benefits accruing from eco-efficient vessels on freight rates seem to be marginal with 43% of respondents saying these ships have no significant impact at the moment. This in part can be attributed to the currently low bunker prices that limit the fuel savings that modern tonnage gives. On the other hand, 54% of respondents felt that lower bunker prices are beneficial to both charterers and shipowners. "Ecoefficient vessels have already been factored into market prices, vessels are steaming at eco-speeds now," a respondent with a ship-owning company said. "Bunkers are pretty cheap now. When the market was lower, at around $10,000/day [for Capesize vessels], then it would make more impact. But at $20,000/day, owners are more willing to increase speed, since it doesn't cost as much," a ship-owning source said. Still, as sources noted, current lower commodity and bunker prices can benefit both charterers and owners. While charterers can deliver cargoes at lower CFR prices, cheap bunkers can help owners cut their operational expenses. FOR MORE INFORMATION, PLEASE CONTACT THE PLATTS SALES OFFICE NEAREST YOU: Web support@platts.com NORTH AMERICA EMEA LATIN AMERICA ASIA-PACIFIC RUSSIA PLATTS8 (toll-free) +44-(0) (direct) 2015 Platts, McGraw Hill Financial. All rights reserved. Reproduction of this publication in any form is prohibited except with the written permission of Platts. Because of the possibility of human or mechanical error by Platts sources, Platts does not guarantee the accuracy, adequacy, completeness, or availability of any Platts information and is not responsible for any errors or omissions or for the use of such Platts information. Platts gives no express or implied warranties, including, but not limited to, any implied warranties of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose or use. In no event shall Platts be liable for any direct, indirect, special, or consequential damages in connection with subscribers or others use of this publication. SPECIAL REPORT 5