Indonesia. General Climate. UNDP Climate Change Country Profiles. A. Karmalkar 1, C. McSweeney 1, M. New 1,2 and G. Lizcano 1

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1 UNDP Climate Change Country Profiles Indonesia A. Karmalkar 1, C. McSweeney 1, M. New 1,2 and G. Lizcano 1 1. School of Geography and Environment, University of Oxford. 2. Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research General Climate Indonesia is a large archipelagic nation of 5 main islands, 2 main archipelagos and more than 60 smaller archipelagos lying between latitudes of 6 N and 11 S of the equator, and longitudes of 95 E S I s climate is typically equatorial with hot and humid conditions throughout the year. The presence of warm waters surrounding the islands ensure that temperatures on land remain fairly constant, with the coastal plains averaging 28 C, the inland and mountain areas averaging 26 C, and the higher mountain regions, 23 C. Temperature varies little from season to season, and Indonesia experiences relatively little change in the length of daylight hours from one season to the next. The seasonal movements of the Inter-T C ) ITC) rainfall. The wet-season (November - March) peaks in January and February when the ITCZ is in its southern-most position, and the driest months are through July to September when the ITCZ is north of South-east Asia. Rainfall in lowland areas averages mm annually, increasing with elevation to an average of 6000 mm in some mountain areas. The area's relative humidity ranges between 70 and 90%. I I P cific oceans means that its climate is strongly influenced by conditions in both of these oceans. It experiences year-to-year variability in climate linked with both the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). El Niño influences the monsoons in the region; generally bringing warmer and drier conditions. La Niña brings wetter and colder conditions.

2 Indonesia Temperature M I C C O seasons, but more rapid over the larger western islands in the west of Indonesia. The frequency of hot days and hot nights has increased significantly since 1960 in every season especially summer (JAS). o T I additional 24% of days) between 1960 and The rate of increase is seen most strongly in JAS when the average number of hot JAS days has increased by 11 days per month (an additional 36% of JAS days) over this period. o T I additional 26% of nights) between 1960 and The rate of increase is seen most strongly in AMJ when the average number of hot AMJ nights has increased by 13.8 nights per month (an additional 44% of AMJ night) over this period. The frequency of cold days has increased slightly whereas the frequency of cold nights, annually, has decreased significantly since o T between 1960 and This rate of decrease is most rapid in OND when the average number of cold OND nights has decreased by 4.3 nights per month (14.2% of OND nights) over this period. Precipitation Mean rainfall over Indonesia has decreased significantly in every season, at an average rate of 7.8mm per month (3.6%) per decade since Trends are similar in all seasons, varying between -7.5mm (3.3%) per decade in OND to - 8.9mm per month (3.6%) per decade, but the greatest proportional decreases have been seen in the dry season JAS, at -4.8% per decade. The observed maximum and 1- and 5-day rainfalls show substantial decrease in magnitude since day maxima have decreased significantly by an average of 4.7mm per decade in JFM and 5mm per decade in OND. T decreasing by 20.2mm per decade. 5-day maxima trends are negative for all seasons, with the largest decreases in JFM (by 11.5mm per decade).

3 Indonesia GCM Projections of Future Climate Temperature T C the 2060s, and 1.2 to 3.7 C by the 2090s. The projected rate of warming is more rapid over the larger Islands of Indonesia and less rapid over the sea and smaller island. Hot days will occur on 35-79% of days by the 2060s and 48-95% of days by the 2090s. This rate of increase is similar in all seasons. Hot nights will occur on 49-95% of nights by the 2060s and 63-99% of nights by the 2090s. This rate of increase is similar in all seasons. Cold days and nights will become less frequent, no longer occurring at all in most models by the 2060s, and not occurring under any of the emissions scenarios by the 2090s. Precipitation Indonesia is predicted to become wetter, with an overall increase in rainfall, with the range of changes in annual rainfall simulated by different models varies between -28 and +53mm per month (-12% to +20%) by the 2090s. There are, however, large spatial and seasonal variations in predicted rainfall changes. The easternmost islands generally will have greatest increases in rainfall (-6 to +38%) by the 2090s. The proportion of total annual rainfall that falls in heavy events is projected to increase by all the models, by up to an additional 15% by the 2090s. P in the A +123 mm by the 2090s. Additional Regional Climate Change Information Model simulations show wide disagreements in projected changes in the amplitude of future El Niño events, contributing to uncertainty in future climate variability in projections for this region. The Indonesian islands are vulnerable to sea-level rise. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) estimates that the global average sea level will rise by m by 2100 relative to under a range of scenarios. Sea-level rise of 1m is likely to affect 17 million people in the country. For further information see Christensen et al. IPCC W G I The Physica S B, Chapter 11 (Regional Climate projections): Sections 11.4 (Asia, see Southeast Asia).

4 Indonesia Data Summary Observed Mean Observed Trend Projected changes by the Projected changes by the 2060s Projected changes by the 2030s 2090s Min Median Max Min Median Max Min Median Max Temperature C (change in C decade) C C C C C C A Annual * A1B B A JFM * A1B B A AMJ * A1B B A JAS * A1B B A OND * A1B B Precipitation (mm per month) (change in mm per decade) Change in mm per month Change in mm per month Change in mm per month A Annual * A1B B A JFM * A1B B A AMJ * A1B B A JAS * A1B B A OND * A1B B Precipitation (%) (mm per month) (change in % per decade) % Change % Change % Change A Annual * A1B B A JFM * A1B B A AMJ * A1B B A JAS * A1B B A OND * A1B B

5 Indonesia Observed Mean Observed Trend Projected changes by the Projected changes by the 2060s Projected changes by the 2030s 2090s Min Median Max Min Median Max Min Median Max % Frequency Change in frequency per decade Future % frequency Future % frequency Frequency of Hot Days (TX90p) A2 **** **** **** Annual * A1B **** **** **** B1 **** **** **** A2 **** **** **** JFM * A1B **** **** **** B1 **** **** **** A2 **** **** **** AMJ * A1B **** **** **** B1 **** **** **** A2 **** **** **** JAS * A1B **** **** **** B1 **** **** **** A2 **** **** **** OND * A1B **** **** **** B1 **** **** **** Frequency of Hot Nights (TN90p) A2 **** **** **** Annual * A1B **** **** **** B1 **** **** **** A2 **** **** **** JFM * A1B **** **** **** B1 **** **** **** A2 **** **** **** AMJ * A1B **** **** **** B1 **** **** **** A2 **** **** **** JAS * A1B **** **** **** B1 **** **** **** A2 **** **** **** OND * A1B **** **** **** B1 **** **** **** Frequency of Cold Days (TX10p) A2 **** **** **** Annual * A1B **** **** **** B1 **** **** **** A2 **** **** **** JFM * A1B **** **** **** B1 **** **** **** A2 **** **** **** AMJ * A1B **** **** **** B1 **** **** **** A2 **** **** **** JAS A1B **** **** **** B1 **** **** **** A2 **** **** **** OND 0 0 A1B **** **** **** B1 **** **** **** Frequency of Cold Nights (TN10p) A2 **** **** **** Annual * A1B **** **** **** B1 **** **** **** A2 **** **** **** JFM A1B **** **** **** B1 **** **** **** A2 **** **** **** AMJ A1B **** **** **** B1 **** **** **** A2 **** **** **** JAS * A1B **** **** **** B1 **** **** **** A2 **** **** **** OND * A1B **** **** **** B1 **** **** ****

6 Indonesia Observed Mean Observed Trend Projected changes by the 2030s Projected changes by the 2060s Projected changes by the 2090s Min Median Max Min Median Max Min Median Max % total rainfall falling in Heavy Events (R95pct) % Change in % per decade Change in % Change in % A2 **** **** **** Annual A1B **** **** **** B1 **** **** **** A2 **** **** **** JFM **** **** A1B **** **** **** B1 **** **** **** A2 **** **** **** AMJ **** **** A1B **** **** **** B1 **** **** **** A2 **** **** **** JAS **** **** A1B **** **** **** B1 **** **** **** A2 **** **** **** OND **** **** A1B **** **** **** B1 **** **** **** Maximum 1-day rainfall (RX1day) mm Change in mm per decade Change in mm Change in mm A2 **** **** **** Annual A1B **** **** **** B1 **** **** **** A2 **** **** **** JFM * A1B **** **** **** B1 **** **** **** A2 **** **** **** AMJ A1B **** **** **** B1 **** **** **** A2 **** **** **** JAS A1B **** **** **** B1 **** **** **** A2 **** **** **** OND * A1B **** **** **** B1 **** **** **** Maximum 5-day Rainfall (RX5day) mm Change in mm per decade Change in mm Change in mm A2 **** **** **** Annual * A1B **** **** **** B1 **** **** **** A2 **** **** **** JFM * A1B **** **** **** B1 **** **** **** A2 **** **** **** AMJ A1B **** **** **** B1 **** **** **** A2 **** **** **** JAS * A1B **** **** **** B1 **** **** **** A2 **** **** **** OND * A1B **** **** **** B1 **** **** **** * indicates trend is statistically significant at 95% confidence **** indicates data are not available

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