1 EPI Routine vaccines Pentavalent, Hexavalent and traditional EPI vaccines Industry Consultation UNICEF Supply Division January 2012
2 Presentation Overview Pentavalent vaccine evolution where are we now? Moving forward 2013 and beyond Other traditional EPI vaccines: DTP, DT, HepB, BCG
3 Vaccine Security: Ensuring the uninterrupted, sustainable supply of affordable vaccines of assured quality The concept of Vaccine Security continues to guide our approach to secure and supply routine vaccine for countries EPI programmes. For the future we will focus on: Balancing supply and demand to ensure supply security Focusing on both price and cost of products, ensuring that more elements of affordability are incorporated Enabling the future EPI schedule
4 A changing EPI schedule catalysed by GAVI support for introduction of HepB and Hib containing vaccines All DTP-containing vaccines procured through UNICEF (GAVI and non-gavi eligible country demand) The transition from DTP has been challenging to forecast accurately and is now resulting in stock-outs and a global shortage of pre-qualified DTP pre-qualified vaccine.
5 Pentavalent introduction via GAVI support and UNICEF procurement (as of end 2011) In out of 67 GAVI eligible countries will have introduced pentavalent vaccines, the majority with procurement through UNICEF.
6 Pentavalent vaccine demand and pricing Steep demand growth in the past years, expecting growth to continue but at a slower pace in the next 4 year period as programmes reach full implementation Declining prices due to new supplier base and availability of multidose vials
7 Procurement objectives: Procurement objectives focused on: - enabling accelerated introduction and use of new vaccines - making available products that met countries needs and preferences - creating a market that would be sustainable with affordable pricing In 2006 the GAVI Board approved 3 specific procurement objectives that guided UNICEF procurement: 1. A healthy market: ensuring the sustainable quantity of supply through a diverse supplier base 2. Select products and presentations that best meet the need of client countries 3. Achieving a long term affordable price that countries can eventually finance in a sustainable manner
8 Assessment of pentavalent vaccine procurement objectives for the procurement round Objective 1. A healthy market: ensuring the sustainable quantity of supply through a diverse supplier base 2. Select products and presentations that best meet the need of client countries 3. Achieving a long term affordable price that countries can eventually finance in a sustainable manner Assessment ( ) 1. Growth in supplier base, but still volatile; 2 new suppliers, 2 de-listed. Today sufficient pentavalent to supply all countries, but requiring close management 2. Introduction of 2 new presentations, enabling a shift in demand from small vials towards 10 dose vials 3. Starting to see reduction in WAP due to new supplier base and multidose vials.
9 The initial offer and award volumes for for Pentavalent vaccines With increased demand quantities and increased competition, we expected price to decrease Even with an expanded supplier base, the WAP is only just below $3.00. However, the newer lower priced products give a positive indication of lower prices ahead
10 Current procured volumes and WAP development for for Pentavalent vaccines that already started to materialize with the additional awards made during the period, and we are now looking at a WAP for 2012 of $2.33 per dose across all presentations. Note: the offered quantity and forecasts reflect the 2009 situation
11 Contracted Pentavalent vaccine prices With increased demand quantities and increased competition, we expected price to decrease Need continued focus on affordable prices from manufacturers
12 Pentavalent : Increasing demand and significant changes in the supplier base Supply complexity: Delays in pre-qualification timelines, supplier de-listings, recall, availability delays, engaging alternative supply. We appreciate manufacturers' flexibility and responsiveness, avoiding prolonged disruptions to immunization programmes. Demand changes: Supporting introduction of 10 dose vials (in 19 countries so far) Uncertainty during this period around the introduction plans of India and Nigeria
13 New presentations meeting country demand 19 countries introduced 10 dose vials in 2011.
14 Moving Forward: In November 2011 the GAVI Board approved the GAVI Supply and Procurement Strategy that will guide GAVI supported procurement through UNICEF GAVI Vaccine Supply and Procurement Objectives 1. Balance of supply/demand Ensure sufficient availability to at least meet total GAVI demand Provide consistent uninterrupted supply to GAVI countries. 2. Cost of vaccine to GAVI and countries Minimize cost per course Minimize cost implications 3. Appropriate and innovative vaccines Procurement of appropriate, quality vaccines to meet GAVI country needs Foster an environment for innovative vaccines Information: Communicate timely, transparent and accurate market information
15 Moving forward: What market are we entering in 2013? Demand: Growing at a slower pace, and with higher visibility than in the past, as the majority of countries already have introduced. Some fragmentation of funding streams. GAVI financing still supports the majority of the demand. Co-financed doses are increasing towards 1/5 of the demand in a couple of years Graduated countries represent a small portion of expected demand for Remaining demand uncertainties in GAVI countries: India scale-up plan, timing of co-financed demand, graduated countries procurement strategy, and impact of longer term more combination vaccines (hexa) on penta demand. Supply: Market has been growing, but is still unstable Expected to stabilize with increased capacity and more presentations over the period Positive signals on more affordable pricing from the growing supplier base
16 Total demand projections for pentavalent vaccine through UNICEF Forecasts will be refined prior to tender issuance Assumptions: India will introduce and use pentavelent in 8 states throughout the period, but this may increase. India demand will be specified in the tender and we will request specific delivery terms for India. GAVI Graduated countries procure through UNICEF
17 GAVI financed & Co-financed demand projections through UNICEF Tender quantities. Co-financing increases from current around10% towards 25% of the GAVI financed demand in India assumption 8 states. Includes forecasts from GAVI graduated countries in 2016
18 Pentavalent vaccine Demand scenario by country product preference 10 dose vials 2 dose lyo vials 1 dose vials Based on the currently expressed country preference may change over time Does not include any future hexavalent that could impact demand / preference Reliability of supply higher with lyophilized production? Requesting feedback from manufacturers to help inform countries future demand preferences.
19 The other future.. Initial IPV containing vaccine scenarios Standalone IPV anticipated to be the preferred product during the eradication and topv-bopv switch phases The following IPV scenarios for potential use of IPV in polio eradication, have been created based on guidance input from programme partners. They represent a combination of routine and campaign activities, with 1 or 2 dose scenarios for the eradication phase, and 3 early scenarios for future demand of IPV in combinations. Low cost hexavalent anticipated to be the preferred product in the 'post-opv' period,
20 A programmatic demand scenario for IPV Consolidated demand plus India. Up to 58 million full dose equivalents w/india. ID quantities are shown as full dose equivalents and based on 2 dose schedule
21 An exploratory hexavalent scenario: Low cost IM hexavalent with full dose IPV for routine introduction An affordable hexavalent would need to be available before universal introduction and use of IPV. This is an unconstrained scenario there would need be a transition from the ID stand alone product to Hexa, this would not happen over night in 2017
22 Strategic tender issues - Innovations in procurement Objective for the Pentavalent tender: Securing supply, bringing stability to the market while achieving affordable vaccine prices and enable future development of the EPI schedule, in alignment with the GAVI SPS objectives. Opportunity to provide innovative proposal features to help us achieve exceptional results. We invite all interested to provide proposals. All valid offers are considered and help inform the award strategy, including on how much demand to keep open for later awards. We will be working with GAVI partners to explore various possibilities to achieve the objectives.
23 Innovative elements - products, offers and awards We are requesting feedback on the approach to make sure we ask in a way that will solicit the best offers : Meeting the call for lower, affordable prices Increased focus on products that enable in country logistics and distribution: low shipping volume and cold chain requirements, primary container volumes and characteristics, different presentations that can meet countries needs etc. Include offers and information on potential alternatives such as lyophilized/liquid, DTaP, and alternatives. We will also request that proposals inform of / or offer future hexavalent vaccines, focusing on the plans and milestones for decision making.
24 Period covered by the tender: years to consider the supply pipeline, opportunity to secure long term attractive offers In 2016, inclusion of demand from graduated GAVI countries procuring through UNICEF. Include scenarios requesting hexavalent product offers for the tender period and indications for the following 2 years ( ). Demand will depend on polio programme progress, country IPV decision making, and affordable supply availability.
25 Tender timeline for pentavalent tender onwards January 2012: Pre-tender meeting for all relevant vaccines with manufacturers and partners February: Feedback on tender strategies End March: Issue tender documents with 6-8 week response time May-August: Review offers, clarifications with manufacturers, consultations, internal review processes September: Awards to manufacturers Jan 2013 Start of supply from new contracts
26 Vaccine Security for traditional EPI routine vaccines HepB, BCG, DTP, TT, Td, DT will tendered for together covering the period
27 DTP an overview of procurement, awards and forecast Declining demand due to transition to DTP combination vaccines The challenge is to meet demand changes in a declining market trend. Vaccine shortages in 2011/2012.
28 DTP forecasted demand through UNICEF Forecasts in doses per year DTP-10 12,000,000 6,000,000 6,000,000 6,000, DTP , , , ,000 Objective will be to secure sustained supply at affordable prices from more than one supplier to ensure flexibility and supply security forecasts is included to show the continued expected demand level. Tender will also include DT demand:
29 HepB - an overview of procurement, awards and forecasts Declining demand due to transition to DTP combination vaccines GAVI no longer funds stand alone HepB vaccine Still demand from some countries that use HepB birth dose Expecting HepB market to stabilize at this lower level.
30 HepB forecasted demand through UNICEF Forecasts in doses per year Objective will be to secure sustained supply at affordable prices from multiple suppliers.
31 BCG - an overview of procurement, awards and forecast Stable demand levels for BCG vaccine this is expected to continue Complex and varying funding sources backing the demand at individual country level stable funding at the aggregate level
32 BCG forecasted quantities though UNICEF Forecasts in doses per year BCG ,000, ,000, ,000, ,000,000 Tender objective is to ensure continued Vaccine Security for a basic childhood vaccine Focus on achieving affordability and multiple suppliers for continued future supply of this vaccine
33 Tender timeline for traditional EPI vaccines onwards January 2012: Pre-tender meeting for all relevant vaccines with manufacturers and partners February: Tender issuance Mid April : Tender closure April - June: Review offers, clarifications with manufacturers, consultations, internal review processes June: Awards to manufacturers Jan 2013 Start of supply from new contracts
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