Statewide Poll Results Edwards 28%, Vitter 19%, Angelle 8%, Dardenne 7%, Others 5% (33% undecided)

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1 Statewide Poll Results Edwards 8%, Vitter 19%, Angelle 8%, Dardenne 7%, Others 5% (33% undecided) POLLING METHODOLOGY Our philosophy about which population to use depends on the election, but we are generally comfortable with a likely voter model (as opposed to a registered voter model) for most elections. For this poll, we chose a sample of likely households statewide for a live operator poll, and there were 500 completed responses to 13 poll questions 67% came from landlines, while 33% came from cell phones. The survey was conducted September The margin of error, with a 95% confidence interval, was 4.4%. The demographic breakdown of the respondents was 67-9% white/black, while the party registration of respondents was 47-31% Democratic/Republican (% Independents). The geographic (which in this case was media markets as defined by Nielsen) breakdown of the respondents was as follows: 5% from Alexandria, 1% from Rouge, 15% from Lafayette, 5% from Charles, 10% from Monroe, 33% from Orleans, and 1% from Shreveport (The explanation of the boundaries of these regions is graphically depicted in Exhibit A at the end of the poll analysis). POLL RESULTS Question 1: Do you think the state is headed in the right direction or the wrong direction? Right Direction 18% Wrong Direction 54% Undecided (NOT READ) 8% Question : If the election for Governor were held today, which candidate would you support? ( affiliations of candidates mentioned) Edwards 8% Vitter 19% Angelle 8% Dardenne 7% Other candidate 5% Undecided (NOT READ) 33% Question 3: As the next governor attempts to balance the budget due to the projected budget deficit, would you favor or oppose an increase in personal? Favor 18% Oppose 69% Undecided (NOT READ) 14% Page 1 of 17

2 Question 4: As the next governor attempts to balance the budget due to the projected budget deficit, would you favor or oppose an increase in corporate or a reduction in corporate tax credits? Favor 49% Oppose 9% Undecided (NOT READ) % Question 5: As the next governor attempts to balance the budget due to the projected budget deficit, would you favor or oppose an increase the on alcohol and cigarettes? Favor 6% Oppose 30% Undecided (NOT READ) 8% Question 6: As the next governor attempts to balance the budget due to the projected budget deficit, would you favor or oppose collecting sales tax on Internet purchases? Favor 3% Oppose 55% Undecided (NOT READ) 14% Question 7: In your opinion, can the new governor solve the state s budget problems solely through spending cuts and not by raising? Yes 4% No 39% Undecided (NOT READ) 19% Question 8: Would you favor or oppose a 0 cent per gallon tax on gas if the money were dedicated to maintaining or building new state roads, highways, and bridges? Favor 40% Oppose 5% Undecided (NOT READ) 8% Question 9: The Affordable Care Act (also known as Obamacare ) provides for an expansion of Medicaid. Those who favor Medicaid expansion say it would help as many as 50,000 people (mainly working adults) in Louisiana get health insurance coverage and save the state over $100 million a year in healthcare spending. Those who oppose Medicaid expansion say it is an inappropriate expansion of government-funded health care that could cost Louisiana up to $1.7 billion over the first ten years. Do you favor or oppose the expansion of Medicaid in Louisiana? Favor 43% Oppose 4% Undecided (NOT READ) 15% Question 10: Do you favor or oppose legalizing the sale of marijuana and taxing it to raise revenue? Favor 40% Oppose 53% Undecided (NOT READ) 7% Question 11: Do you favor or oppose displaying the flag on public? Favor 41% Oppose 44% Undecided (NOT READ) 15% Page of 17

3 Question 1: Do you favor or oppose having monuments or statues of soldiers on public? Favor 56% Oppose 9% Undecided (NOT READ) 15% Question 13: Do the prostitution allegations surrounding Senator David Vitter make you more or less likely to support him for Governor? More Likely 6% Less Likely 55% Undecided (NOT READ) 39% SUMMARY With the October elections just over three weeks away, we are finding that voters haven t been engaged in the governor s race thus far, with 33% still undecided. John Bel Edwards (the lone major Democrat in the race) has a 8-19% lead over David Vitter, while neither Scott Angelle nor Jay Dardenne has shown much evidence of gaining a sufficient amount of momentum to be a runoff contender. A more detailed evaluation of this poll evaluates responses to both the candidate questions and the issue questions. Candidates Presently, John Bel Edwards leads David Vitter 8-19%, and since 38% of the black vote is undecided, he stands a strong chance of finishing first in the primary with well over 30% of the vote. David Vitter s 19% is anchored in his 3% showing among Republicans, but he s only getting 0% of white Democrats and 16% of white Independents. It appears that the prostitution allegations that surfaced a decade ago are a kind of negative background noise for him: 55% of respondents would be less likely to vote for him, while these allegations don t matter to 39% (6% said it would make them more likely to support Vitter). There is an urban/rural split in these responses, as those in the Rouge/ Orleans media markets would be 60% less likely to support Vitter (36% say it makes no difference, and 4% would be more likely), while in the remaining/smaller media markets, it s 50% less likely, 4% no difference, and 8% more likely. Finally, there is an eight point gender gap on this question, with 59% of women and 51% of men saying they are less likely to support Vitter over these allegations. Issues Since budget issues will be an immediate concern to the next governor, we tested voter attitudes about spending and, and found that voters are divided on which to raise. Two possible tax increases were found to be palatable: (1) an increase in sin by a 6-30% margin, voters favor increasing alcohol/cigarette, and () increasing corporate /reducing corporate tax credits 49-9% favor this proposal. The remaining three tax increases proposed were noticeably more unpopular. The most unpopular was an increase in the personal tax (69-18% opposition), followed by collecting sales on Internet purchases (55-3% opposed), and an increase in the gas tax for road construction/maintenance (5-40% opposed). It s also worth noting in this discussion about tax increases that voters seem resigned to some sort of tax increase and aren t jumping onto other ideas to bring new revenues into the state treasury: only 4% think the next governor can solve the state s budget problems without raising (39% disagree, while 19% are undecided). Furthermore, given the state s budget outlook, Medicaid expansion is likely to be an issue the next governor will have to address one way or another, although when presented both the pros and cons of this issue, voters were split Page 3 of 17

4 43-4% on whether they favor Louisiana s accepting Medicaid expansion money. Finally, voters opposed by a 53-40% margin legalizing and taxing marijuana. In addition to ballot testing the governor s race and voter attitudes on fiscal issues, the flag was tested as well, given the controversy presently being played out in Orleans. Voter opinion is mixed: they by a 44-41% margin oppose displaying the flag on public, but by a 56-9% margin support having monuments/statues of soldiers on public even in the Orleans media market (the epicenter of the controversy), voters by a 53-31% margin favor keeping the monuments/statues. Conclusion With the governor s race still far from settled (33% have not yet made up their mind), it s possible for late shifts in public opinion to occur, or (equally as likely) this level of voter disengagement resulting in a voter turnout even lower than the 37% who participated in the 011 statewide elections. CROSSTABS Question 1 Direction of State Direction of State 1 Right Direction 14% 13% 0% 18% Wrong Direction 56% 38% 54% 54% 3 Undecided 30% 50% 7% 8% Direction of State 1 Right Direction 14% 16% 4% 18% Wrong Direction 56% 56% 49% 54% 3 Undecided 30% 8% 7% 8% Direction of State 1 Right Direction 14% % 3% 18% Wrong Direction 57% 51% 50% 54% 3 Undecided 9% 7% 8% 8% Page 4 of 17

5 Direction of State 1 Right Direction 1% 1% 19% 17% 1% 19% 10% 18% Wrong Direction 54% 49% 5% 54% 59% 58% 48% 54% 3 Undecided 5% 30% 9% 9% 9% 3% 41% 8% 100% 100% 100% 100% Direction of State 1 Right Direction 16% 19% 18% Wrong Direction 59% 50% 54% 3 Undecided 5% 31% 8% Question Governor (ballot test) Governor's Race 1 Angelle 3% 19% 10% 8% Dardenne 3% 19% 9% 7% 3 Edwards 4% 6% 3% 8% 4 Vitter 7% 13% 5% 19% 5 Other Candidate 6% 4% 5% 6 Undecided 38% 44% 30% 33% Governor's Race 1 Angelle 4% 10% 1% 8% Dardenne 7% 4% 11% 7% 3 Edwards 41% 5% 11% 8% 4 Vitter 14% 13% 3% 19% 5 Other Candidate 6% 5% 3% 5% 6 Undecided 9% 44% 31% 33% Page 5 of 17

6 Governor's Race 1 Angelle 6% 13% 6% 8% Dardenne 9% 4% 7% 7% 3 Edwards 30% 6% 6% 8% 4 Vitter % 17% 15% 19% 5 Other Candidate 4% 4% 6% 5% 6 Undecided 9% 34% 41% 33% Governor's Race Alexandria Rouge Lafayette Charles Monroe Orleans Shreveport Total 1 Angelle 7% 18% 17% % 6% 9% 8% Dardenne 17% 1% 10% 13% 6% 4% 3% 7% 3 Edwards 8% 3% 3% 17% 0% 34% 31% 8% 4 Vitter 33% 14% 7% 1% % 3% % 19% 5 Other Candidate 4% 4% 8% 8% % 4% 5% 5% 6 Undecided 38% 3% 34% 5% 49% 9% 9% 33% 100% 100% 100% 100% Governor's Race 1 Angelle 8% 8% 8% Dardenne 6% 8% 7% 3 Edwards 8% 8% 8% 4 Vitter 3% 16% 19% 5 Other Candidate 4% 5% 5% 6 Undecided 30% 35% 33% Question 3 personal personal 1 Favor 0% 5% 16% 18% Oppose 61% 69% 7% 69% 3 Undecided 18% 6% 1% 14% Page 6 of 17

7 personal 1 Favor 19% 19% 15% 18% Oppose 65% 69% 75% 69% 3 Undecided 17% 1% 10% 14% personal 1 Favor 18% 16% 18% 18% Oppose 69% 71% 65% 69% 3 Undecided 1% 13% 17% 14% personal 1 Favor 8% 18% 5% 17% 16% 17% 14% 18% Oppose 71% 70% 6% 63% 69% 71% 71% 69% 3 Undecided 1% 1% 14% 1% 16% 11% 16% 14% 100% 100% 100% 100% personal 1 Favor 19% 16% 18% Oppose 7% 66% 69% 3 Undecided 9% 18% 14% Question 4 corporate corporate 1 Favor 50% 56% 48% 49% Oppose 3% 19% 3% 9% 3 Undecided 7% 5% 19% % corporate 1 Favor 51% 54% 4% 49% Oppose 5% 3% 34% 9% 3 Undecided 4% 14% 4% % Page 7 of 17

8 corporate 1 Favor 49% 49% 48% 49% Oppose 8% 31% 31% 9% 3 Undecided 3% 0% % % corporate 1 Favor 17% 50% 5% 46% 39% 58% 40% 49% Oppose 46% 6% 3% 38% 37% 3% 33% 9% 3 Undecided 38% 4% 16% 17% 4% 19% 8% % 100% 100% 100% 100% corporate 1 Favor 55% 44% 49% Oppose 31% 7% 9% 3 Undecided 13% 9% % Question 5 on alcohol/tobacco sin 1 Favor 58% 75% 63% 6% Oppose 31% 5% 31% 30% 3 Undecided 1% 6% 8% sin 1 Favor 6% 56% 66% 6% Oppose 9% 41% 6% 30% 3 Undecided 9% 4% 8% 8% Page 8 of 17

9 sin 1 Favor 6% 64% 58% 6% Oppose 9% 30% 35% 30% 3 Undecided 9% 6% 7% 8% sin 1 Favor 67% 61% 55% 33% 63% 68% 66% 6% Oppose 9% 31% 38% 58% 31% 5% % 30% 3 Undecided 4% 9% 7% 8% 6% 7% 1% 8% 100% 100% 100% 100% sin 1 Favor 56% 67% 6% Oppose 37% 5% 30% 3 Undecided 7% 8% 8% Question 6 Sales tax on Internet purchases Sales tax Internet purchases 1 Favor 0% 38% 36% 3% Oppose 59% 56% 53% 55% 3 Undecided 0% 6% 11% 14% Sales tax Internet purchases 1 Favor 31% 31% 33% 3% Oppose 5% 60% 55% 55% 3 Undecided 17% 9% 1% 14% Sales tax Internet purchases 1 Favor 3% 30% 34% 3% Oppose 53% 56% 57% 55% 3 Undecided 15% 14% 9% 14% Page 9 of 17

10 Sales tax Internet purchases 1 Favor 33% 3% 6% 9% 45% 30% 31% 3% Oppose 63% 5% 64% 58% 37% 58% 50% 55% 3 Undecided 4% 16% 10% 13% 18% 1% 19% 14% 100% 100% 100% 100% Sales tax Internet purchases 1 Favor 3% 31% 3% Oppose 61% 50% 55% 3 Undecided 7% 19% 14% Question 7 Only spending cuts Only spending cuts 1 Yes 35% 44% 45% 4% No 35% 38% 41% 39% 3 Undecided 31% 19% 14% 19% Only spending cuts 1 Yes 34% 43% 51% 4% No 38% 47% 36% 39% 3 Undecided 8% 10% 13% 19% Only spending cuts 1 Yes 38% 46% 46% 4% No 41% 37% 39% 39% 3 Undecided % 17% 16% 19% Page 10 of 17

11 Only spending cuts 1 Yes 38% 37% 44% 38% 51% 44% 36% 4% No 4% 46% 4% 38% 7% 35% 45% 39% 3 Undecided 1% 17% 14% 5% % 1% 19% 19% 100% 100% 100% 100% Only spending cuts 1 Yes 46% 38% 4% No 4% 36% 39% 3 Undecided 1% 5% 19% Question 8 0 cent gasoline tax 0 cent gas tax 1 Favor 44% 38% 39% 40% Oppose 45% 56% 54% 5% 3 Undecided 11% 6% 7% 8% 0 cent gas tax 1 Favor 4% 39% 40% 40% Oppose 49% 56% 5% 5% 3 Undecided 9% 5% 8% 8% 0 cent gas tax 1 Favor 37% 45% 43% 40% Oppose 53% 47% 53% 5% 3 Undecided 9% 8% 4% 8% 0 cent gas tax Page 11 of 17 1 Favor 4% 38% 5% 38% 39% 37% 41% 40% Oppose 50% 50% 44% 46% 57% 57% 47% 5% 3 Undecided 8% 1% 4% 17% 4% 6% 1% 8% 100% 100% 100% 100%

12 0 cent gas tax 1 Favor 44% 37% 40% Oppose 49% 54% 5% 3 Undecided 7% 9% 8% Question 9 Medicaid expansion Medicaid Expansion 1 Favor 67% 19% 33% 43% Oppose 16% 56% 53% 4% 3 Undecided 17% 5% 14% 15% Medicaid Expansion 1 Favor 53% 43% 6% 43% Oppose 30% 43% 59% 4% 3 Undecided 17% 14% 15% 15% Medicaid Expansion 1 Favor 43% 38% 47% 43% Oppose 41% 47% 39% 4% 3 Undecided 16% 15% 15% 15% Medicaid Expansion 1 Favor 5% 47% 4% 5% 35% 51% 33% 43% Oppose 63% 34% 41% 54% 53% 37% 48% 4% 3 Undecided 13% 19% 16% 1% 1% 1% 19% 15% 100% 100% 100% 100% Page 1 of 17

13 Medicaid Expansion 1 Favor 46% 40% 43% Oppose 41% 43% 4% 3 Undecided 14% 17% 15% Question 10 Legalizing/taxing marijuana sales Legallize/tax marijuana 1 Favor 4% 50% 38% 40% Oppose 49% 50% 55% 53% 3 Undecided 9% 7% 7% Legallize/tax marijuana 1 Favor 38% 58% 9% 40% Oppose 54% 37% 65% 53% 3 Undecided 8% 5% 6% 7% Legallize/tax marijuana 1 Favor 9% 45% 61% 40% Oppose 64% 48% 33% 53% 3 Undecided 7% 7% 6% 7% Legallize/tax marijuana 1 Favor 33% 34% 41% 9% 9% 50% 34% 40% Oppose 67% 60% 48% 63% 63% 45% 57% 53% 3 Undecided 7% 11% 8% 8% 5% 9% 7% 100% 100% 100% 100% Legallize/tax marijuana 1 Favor 50% 31% 40% Oppose 45% 60% 53% 3 Undecided 5% 9% 7% Page 13 of 17

14 Question 11 flag on public flag public 1 Favor 18% 31% 5% 41% Oppose 63% 69% 34% 44% 3 Undecided 18% 14% 15% flag public 1 Favor 33% 41% 55% 41% Oppose 51% 49% 9% 44% 3 Undecided 16% 10% 17% 15% flag public 1 Favor 41% 40% 46% 41% Oppose 45% 46% 37% 44% 3 Undecided 14% 15% 18% 15% flag public 1 Favor 46% 37% 44% 75% 53% 37% 33% 41% Oppose 50% 46% 41% 13% 31% 48% 50% 44% 3 Undecided 4% 17% 15% 13% 16% 14% 17% 15% 100% 100% 100% 100% flag public 1 Favor 4% 41% 41% Oppose 44% 43% 44% 3 Undecided 13% 16% 15% Page 14 of 17

15 Question 1 monuments on public monuments public 1 Favor 0% 81% 71% 56% Oppose 59% 13% 17% 9% 3 Undecided 0% 6% 1% 15% monuments public 1 Favor 39% 65% 77% 56% Oppose 43% 6% 10% 9% 3 Undecided 18% 9% 13% 15% monuments public 1 Favor 53% 6% 58% 56% Oppose 33% 5% 4% 9% 3 Undecided 14% 13% 18% 15% monuments public 1 Favor 79% 50% 56% 83% 55% 53% 59% 56% Oppose 13% 38% 3% 8% 7% 31% 31% 9% 3 Undecided 8% 13% 1% 8% 18% 16% 10% 15% 100% 100% 100% 100% monuments public 1 Favor 60% 53% 56% Oppose 7% 31% 9% 3 Undecided 13% 16% 15% Page 15 of 17

16 Question 13 Vitter prostitution allegations Vitter prostitution allegations 1 More Likely 4% 7% 6% Less Likely 57% 50% 55% 55% 3 No Difference 39% 50% 38% 39% Vitter prostitution allegations 1 More Likely 5% 4% 10% 6% Less Likely 60% 51% 51% 55% 3 No Difference 36% 45% 39% 39% Vitter prostitution allegations 1 More Likely 7% 4% 5% 6% Less Likely 55% 53% 58% 55% 3 No Difference 38% 43% 37% 39% Vitter prostitution allegations 1 More Likely 1% 6% 5% 13% 8% % 7% 6% Less Likely 38% 61% 51% 50% 51% 60% 5% 55% 3 No Difference 4% 34% 44% 38% 41% 38% 41% 39% 100% 100% 100% 100% Vitter prostitution allegations 1 More Likely 6% 6% 6% Less Likely 51% 59% 55% 3 No Difference 43% 35% 39% Page 16 of 17

17 Appendix A: Statewide regions (ALX = Alexandria, BR= Rouge, LAF=Lafayette, LKC= Charles, MON=Monroe, NO= Orleans, SHR=Shreveport) Page 17 of 17