global warming and the u.s. presidential election, Spring 2016

Transcription

1 global warming and the u.. preidential election, Spring 2016

2 Global Warming and the U.S. Preidential Election, Spring Table of Content Introduction... 2 Key Finding Global Warming Belief and Attitude Global Warming a an Iue in the November 2016 Election Support for Action on Global Warming Appendix I: Data Table Appendix II: Survey Method Appendix III: Sample Demographic... 46

3 Global Warming and the U.S. Preidential Election, Spring Introduction Thi report i baed on finding from a nationally repreentative urvey Climate Change in the American Mind conducted by the Yale Program on Climate Change Communication ( and the George Maon Univerity Center for Climate Change Communication ( Interview date: March 18 31, Interview: 1,004 Adult (18+) who are regitered to vote. Average margin of error: +/- 3 percentage point at the 95% confidence level. The reearch wa funded by the 11th Hour Project, the Energy Foundation, the Grantham Foundation, and the MacArthur Foundation. Principal Invetigator: Anthony Leierowitz, PhD Yale Program on Climate Change Communication anthony.leierowitz@yale.edu Edward Maibach, MPH, PhD George Maon Univerity Center for Climate Change Communication emaibach@gmu.edu Connie Roer-Renouf, PhD George Maon Univerity Center for Climate Change Communication croerre@gmu.edu Geoff Feinberg Yale Program on Climate Change Communication geoffrey.feinberg@yale.edu Seth Roenthal, PhD Yale Program on Climate Change Communication eth.roenthal@yale.edu Cite a: Leierowitz, A., Maibach, E., Roer-Renouf, C., Feinberg, G., & Roenthal, S. (2016). Global Warming and the U.S. Preidential Election, Spring Yale Univerity and George Maon Univerity. New Haven, CT: Yale Program on Climate Change Communication.

4 Global Warming and the U.S. Preidential Election, Spring Reading note: Thi report wa prepared prior to Ted (R) upenion of hi preidential campaign. Mr. upporter are the mot likely to think climate change i not happening. Thi report i baed only on regitered voter. Reference to and throughout include regitered voter who do not initially identify a or but who ay they lean toward one party or the other in a follow-up quetion. The category Independent doe not include any of thee leaner. Throughout the report, candidate are lited in alphabetical order within party. In all table and chart, bae pecified are unweighted, but percentage are weighted. Weighted percentage for political party identification: Ø including leaner: 47% Ø Independent excluding leaner: 10% Ø including leaner: 38% Weighted percentage in repone to the following quetion: If the November, 2016 preidential election were held today, which candidate, if any, would be your firt choice? [The five remaining major party candidate a of March 18, 2016 were lited in random order]: Ø Hillary : 22% Ø Bernie : 16% Ø Ted : 9% Ø John : 8% Ø Donald : 15% Ø Someone ele: 2% Ø Haven t decided/not ure: 25% Ø Probably won t vote: 3% In the appendix table, note that: -- = 0; * = >0 but <0.5; ** = Caution: mall bae.

5 Global Warming and the U.S. Preidential Election, Spring Key Finding With the exception of Ted voter, mot upporter of the Democratic and Republican candidate think global warming i happening (: 93%, : 92%, : 71%, : 56%). By contrat, fewer than half of Ted upporter 38% think global warming i happening. of the Democratic candidate are much more likely to think global warming i caued motly by human activitie (79% of upporter and 76% of upporter). of the Republican candidate are more likely to think it i caued motly by natural change in the environment (60% of upporter and 55% of upporter), or are divided on the iue 49% of upporter think global warming i motly caued by human, 46% think it i motly caued by natural change. Fewer than half of any candidate upporter are aware that virtually all climate cientit have concluded human-caued global warming i happening. However, upporter of the Democratic candidate are the mot likely to think at leat 90% of climate cientit are convinced (: 38%, : 27%). Far fewer upporter of the Republican candidate undertand the cientific conenu (: 11%, : 3%, : 2%). When aked how worried they are about global warming, a majority of (83%) and upporter (80%) ay they are very or omewhat worried about it. Fewer than half of the Republican candidate upporter are very or omewhat worried about global warming. upporter are the mot likely to ay they are worried (nearly half 44%), followed by about one in three upporter (35%) and about one in ix upporter (17%). of all Democratic and Republican candidate except are more likely to vote for a preidential candidate who trongly upport taking action to reduce global warming. Converely, upporter of all Democratic and Republican candidate except are le likely to vote for a preidential candidate who trongly oppoe taking action to reduce global warming. While very few voter ay global warming will be the mot important iue to them when picking a candidate to vote for thi year (2%), about half (49%) ay it will be among everal important iue. of the Democratic candidate are mot likely to ay it will be among everal important iue (: 74%, : 70%). By contrat, fewer than half of the Republican candidate upporter ay the ame (: 42%, : 33%, : 30%).

6 Global Warming and the U.S. Preidential Election, Spring Among the iue voter ay will influence their vote for Preident in 2016, global warming ranked 5th in importance of the 23 iue aked about among voter (59% ay it i very important ) and 11th highet for upporter (51% ay it i very important ). By contrat, upporter of the Republican candidate are leat likely to ay global warming i very important to them among the 23 iue (: 18%, : 13%, : 13%). About half of and upporter would be willing to join or are currently participating in a campaign to convince elected official to take action to reduce global warming (51% and 47%, repectively). By contrat, fewer than one in five upporter of the Republican candidate would be willing to do o (: 17%, : 16%, : 11%). itered voter upport a broad array of energy policie, including many deigned to reduce carbon pollution and dependence on foil fuel, and to promote clean energy. The Democratic candidate upporter are the mot likely to trongly or omewhat upport uch policie, but upporter of the Republican candidate do a well, including: o Funding more reearch into renewable energy ource uch a olar and wind power (: 93%, : 91%, : 86%, : 76%, : 64%). o Providing tax rebate to people who purchae energy-efficient vehicle or olar panel (: 94%, : 92%, : 80%, : 70%, : 59%). At leat half of upporter of all candidate except alo would upport: o ulating carbon dioxide a a pollutant (: 91%, : 87%, : 74%, : 62%, : 47%). o Requiring foil fuel companie to pay a carbon tax and uing the money to reduce other taxe uch a income taxe by an equal amount (: 88%, : 85%, : 53%, : 51%, : 27%). Mot and upporter (90% and 87%, repectively) and over half of voter (61%) upport etting trict carbon dioxide emiion limit on exiting coal-fired power plant to reduce global warming and improve public health, even if the cot of electricity to conumer and companie would likely increae. Half of upporter do a well (50%). By contrat, only 36% of upporter agree.

7 Global Warming and the U.S. Preidential Election, Spring Mot and upporter (90% and 76%, repectively) and over half of voter (61%) think the U.S. hould reduce it greenhoue ga emiion, regardle of what other countrie do. About half of upporter agree (49%), but only four in 10 upporter (40%) do.

8 Global Warming and the U.S. Preidential Election, Spring Global Warming Belief and Attitude 1.1. Mot,,, and upporter but not upporter think global warming i happening. With the exception of Ted voter, mot upporter of the Democratic and Republican candidate think global warming i happening: Bernie : 93% Hillary : 92% John : 71% Donald : 56% By contrat, fewer than half of Ted upporter 38% think global warming i happening.

9 Global Warming and the U.S. Preidential Election, Spring Majoritie of and upporter think global warming i humancaued. Majoritie of and upporter think it i natural. upporter are plit. of the Democratic candidate are much more likely to think global warming i caued motly by human activitie (79% of upporter and 76% of upporter). By contrat, upporter of the Republican candidate are more likely to think it i caued motly by natural change in the environment (60% of upporter and 55% of upporter), or are divided on the iue 49% of upporter think global warming i motly caued by human, 46% think it i motly caued by natural change.

10 Global Warming and the U.S. Preidential Election, Spring and upporter are more likely to undertand the cientific conenu on global warming. A recent review tudy by Cook and colleague 1 found that all peer-reviewed tudie about the extent of the cientific conenu about global warming have reached imilar concluion: between 90% and 100% of climate expert are convinced that human-caued climate change i happening. The mot rigorou of thee tudie have found that 97% of climate cientit are convinced that human-caued climate change i happening. Fewer than half of any candidate upporter are aware that uch a conenu exit. However, upporter of the Democratic candidate are the mot likely to think at leat 90% of climate cientit are convinced: Bernie : 38% Hillary : 27% Far fewer upporter of the Republican candidate undertand the cientific conenu: John : 11% Donald : 3% Ted : 2% 1 Cook, J., Oreke, N., Doran, P. T., Anderegg, W. R. I., Verheggen, B., Maibach, E. W., Carlton, J. S., Lewendowky, S., Skuce, A. G., Green, S. A., Nuccitelli, D., Jacob, P., Richardon, M., Winkler, B., Painting, R., & Rice., K. (2016). Conenu on conenu: A ynthei of conenu etimate on human-caued global warming. Environmental Reearch Letter 11(4). doi: / /11/4/048002

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12 Global Warming and the U.S. Preidential Election, Spring Mot and upporter are worried about global warming. Fewer than half of Republican candidate upporter are worried, upporter leat of all. When aked how worried they are about global warming, a majority of (83%) and upporter (80%) ay they are very or omewhat worried about it. Fewer than half of the Republican candidate upporter are very or omewhat worried about global warming. upporter are the mot likely to ay they are worried (nearly half 44%), followed by about one in three upporter (35%) and about one in ix upporter (17%).

13 Global Warming and the U.S. Preidential Election, Spring Global Warming a an Iue in the November 2016 Election 2.1.,,, and voter would be more likely to upport a preidential candidate who trongly upport taking action to reduce global warming. voter would be le likely. of all candidate except are more likely to vote for a preidential candidate who trongly upport taking action to reduce global warming. On balance, Democratic voter are much more likely to upport a candidate who trongly upport taking action to reduce global warming. upporter are 63 percentage point more likely than le likely to vote for uch a candidate. Similarly, upporter are 66 point more, rather than le, likely to vote for uch a candidate. upporter are alo more likely to vote for a candidate who trongly upport taking action to reduce global warming, but by a maller margin (+11 percentage point). upporter are alo marginally more likely to vote for a candidate who trongly upport taking action to reduce global warming (+3 point). By contrat, upporter would be le likely to vote for a candidate who trongly upport global warming action by a margin of 28 point. Democratic candidate voter are more likely to voice upport on ocial media for a candidate who upport taking action to reduce global warming (: +32 point, : +29). Republican upporter, converely, are le likely to voice upport on ocial media (: -37 point, : -18, : -14). The fact that and upporter would be more likely to vote for a candidate who upport climate action, yet le likely to voice upport for him or her on ocial media may indicate that Republican upporter who think climate change i happening may fear criticim from their peer for voicing their view. of the Democratic candidate are alo more likely to donate money to the campaign of a preidential candidate who upport climate action (: +29 point, : +26), but Republican upporter are le likely to do o (: -39 point, : -23, : -17).

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15 Global Warming and the U.S. Preidential Election, Spring ,,, and voter would be le likely to upport a preidential candidate who trongly oppoe taking action to reduce global warming. voter would be more likely. Converely, upporter of all candidate except are le likely to vote for a preidential candidate who trongly oppoe taking action to reduce global warming. On balance, Democratic voter are the leat likely to upport a candidate who trongly oppoe action to reduce global warming. upporter are 68 percentage point le likely to ay they would vote for uch a candidate. Similarly, upporter are 62 point le likely. upporter are alo le likely to vote for a candidate who trongly oppoe taking action to reduce global warming, by a large margin 38 percentage point. upporter are alo le likely to vote for a candidate who trongly oppoe taking action to reduce global warming, but by a maller margin 5 point. By contrat, upporter would be more likely to vote for a candidate who trongly oppoe global warming action by a margin of 23 point. of all candidate except are le likely to voice upport on ocial media for a candidate who oppoe taking action to reduce global warming (: -55 point, : -50, : -21, : -8). upporter, by contrat, are more likely to voice upport on ocial media (+13 point). of all candidate except are alo le likely to donate money to the campaign of a preidential candidate who oppoe climate action (: -60 point, : -57, : -31, : -14). upporter, by contrat, are more likely to donate to the candidate campaign (+11 point).

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17 Global Warming and the U.S. Preidential Election, Spring The majority of and upporter ay global warming will be among everal important iue determining their vote for preident thi year. The majority of and upporter ay it will not be an important iue. upporter are plit. While very few voter ay global warming will be the mot important iue to them when picking a candidate to vote for thi year (2%), about half (49%) ay it will be among everal important iue. of the Democratic candidate are mot likely to ay it will be among everal important iue (: 74%, : 70%). By contrat, fewer than half of the Republican candidate upporter ay the ame (: 42%, : 33%, : 30%).

18 Global Warming and the U.S. Preidential Election, Spring upporter are the mot likely to ay global warming i a very important iue when deciding whom to vote for, followed by upporter. of the Republican candidate are leat likely to ay it i very important to their vote. Among the iue voter ay will influence their vote for Preident in 2016, global warming ranked 5th in importance of the 23 iue aked about among voter (59% ay it i very important ) and 11th highet for upporter (51% ay it i very important ). By contrat, upporter of the Republican candidate are leat likely to ay global warming i very important to them among the 23 iue (: 18%, : 13%, : 13%).

19 Global Warming and the U.S. Preidential Election, Spring Support for Action on Global Warming 3.1. About half of and upporter would be willing to join a campaign to convince elected official to reduce global warming. Few upporter of the Republican candidate would, upporter leat of all. About half of and upporter would be willing to join or are currently participating in a campaign to convince elected official to take action to reduce global warming (51% and 47%, repectively). By contrat, fewer than one in five upporter of the Republican candidate would be willing to do o (: 17%, : 16%, : 11%).

20 Global Warming and the U.S. Preidential Election, Spring A majority of all candidate voter upport funding more reearch into renewable energy and providing tax rebate to people who buy energy efficient vehicle or olar panel. itered voter upport a broad array of energy policie, including many deigned to reduce carbon pollution and dependence on foil fuel, and to promote clean energy. The Democratic candidate upporter are the mot likely to trongly or omewhat upport uch policie, but upporter of the Republican candidate do a well, including: Funding more reearch into renewable energy ource uch a olar and wind power (: 93%, : 91%, : 86%, : 76%, : 64%). Providing tax rebate to people who purchae energy-efficient vehicle or olar panel (: 94%, : 92%, : 80%, : 70%, : 59%). At leat half of upporter of all candidate except alo would upport: ulating carbon dioxide a a pollutant (: 91%, : 87%, : 74%, : 62%, : 47%). Requiring foil fuel companie to pay a carbon tax and uing the money to reduce other taxe uch a income taxe by an equal amount (: 88%, : 85%, : 53%, : 51%, : 27%). Converely, fewer than half of (42%) or (35%) voter upport the expanion of offhore drilling for oil and natural ga off the U.S. coat, while ignificant majoritie of Republican candidate voter upport it (: 85%, : 75%, : 67%).

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22 Global Warming and the U.S. Preidential Election, Spring Half or more,,, and voter upport trict CO 2 emiion limit on coal-fired power plant; fewer upporter agree. Mot and upporter (90% and 87%, repectively) and over half of voter (61%) upport etting trict carbon dioxide emiion limit on exiting coal-fired power plant to reduce global warming and improve public health, even if the cot of electricity to conumer and companie would likely increae. Half of upporter do a well (50%). By contrat, only 36% of upporter agree.

23 Global Warming and the U.S. Preidential Election, Spring Half or more,,, and upporter ay the U.S. hould reduce it CO 2 emiion regardle of what other countrie do. Fewer upporter agree. Mot and upporter (90% and 76%, repectively) and over half of voter (61%) think the U.S. hould reduce it greenhoue ga emiion, regardle of what other countrie do. About half of upporter agree (49%), but only four in 10 upporter (40%) do.

24 Global Warming and the U.S. Preidential Election, Spring Appendix I: Data Table Global Warming Belief and Attitude What do you think: Do you think that global warming i happening? Voter Unweighted Bae (1,004) (451) (218) (163) (103) (399) (103) (90)** (146) Ye No Don't know Auming global warming i happening, do you think it i Voter Unweighted Bae (1,004) (451) (218) (163) (103) (399) (103) (90)** (146) Caued motly by human activitie Caued motly by natural change in the environment Caued by both human activitie and natural change (volunteered) * -- * -- * None of the above becaue global warming in't happening

25 Global Warming and the U.S. Preidential Election, Spring To the bet of your knowledge, what percentage of climate cientit think that human-caued global warming i happening? Pleae click on the lider bar below to indicate your anwer. You can lide the indicator to the poition that bet decribe your opinion. If the indicator doe not work, you can enter a number in the number box. Voter Republican Unweighted Bae (1,004) (451) (218) (163) (103) (399) (103) (90)** (146) * * * * Don't know enough to ay How worried are you about global warming? Voter Unweighted Bae (1,004) (451) (218) (163) (103) (399) (103) (90)** (146) Very/Somewhat Very Somewhat Not very/not at all Not very Not at all

26 Global Warming and the U.S. Preidential Election, Spring Global Warming a an Iue in the November 2016 Election If a candidate for U.S. Preident trongly upport taking action to reduce global warming, would you be more or le likely to do each of the following, or would it make no difference? I would be more or le likely to Vote for the candidate Voter Unweighted Bae (1,004) (451) (218) (163) (103) (399) (103) (90)** (146) Much More/Somewhat More Much more Somewhat more No difference Much Le/Somewhat Le Somewhat Le Much Le Not ure Refued/Prefer not to anwer Donate money to the candidate campaign Voter Unweighted Bae (1,004) (451) (218) (163) (103) (399) (103) (90)** (146) Much More/Somewhat More Much more Somewhat more No difference Much Le/Somewhat Le Somewhat Le Much Le Not ure Refued/Prefer not to anwer

27 Global Warming and the U.S. Preidential Election, Spring If a candidate for U.S. Preident trongly upport taking action to reduce global warming, would you be more or le likely to do each of the following, or would it make no difference? I would be more or le likely to (Cont d.) Voice upport for the candidate on Facebook, Twitter, or other ocial media Voter Unweighted Bae (1,004) (451) (218) (163) (103) (399) (103) (90)** (146) Much More/Somewhat More Much more Somewhat more No difference Much Le/Somewhat Le Somewhat Le Much Le Not ure Refued/Prefer not to anwer If a candidate for U.S. Preident trongly oppoe taking action to reduce global warming, would you be more or le likely to do each of the following, or would it make no difference? I would be more or le likely to Vote for the candidate Voter Unweighted Bae (1,004) (451) (218) (163) (103) (399) (103) (90)** (146) Much More/Somewhat More Much more Somewhat more No difference Much Le/Somewhat Le Somewhat Le Much Le Not ure Refued/Prefer not to anwer

28 Global Warming and the U.S. Preidential Election, Spring If a candidate for U.S. Preident trongly oppoe taking action to reduce global warming, would you be more or le likely to do each of the following, or would it make no difference? I would be more or le likely to (Cont d.) Donate money to the candidate campaign Voter Unweighted Bae (1,004) (451) (218) (163) (103) (399) (103) (90)** (146) Much More/Somewhat More Much more Somewhat more 2 * No difference Much Le/Somewhat Le Somewhat Le Much Le Not ure Refued/Prefer not to anwer Voice upport for the candidate on Facebook, Twitter, or other ocial media Voter Unweighted Bae (1,004) (451) (218) (163) (103) (399) (103) (90)** (146) Much More/Somewhat More Much more Somewhat more No difference Much Le/Somewhat Le Somewhat Le Much Le Not ure Refued/Prefer not to anwer

29 Global Warming and the U.S. Preidential Election, Spring How important will the candidate view on global warming be in determining your vote for Preident thi year? Voter Unweighted Bae (1,004) (451) (218) (163) (103) (399) (103) (90)** (146) The ingle mot important iue One of everal important iue Not an important iue Don t know How important the following iue be when you decide who you will vote for in the 2016 Preidential election? The economy Voter Unweighted Bae (1,004) (451) (218) (163) (103) (399) (103) (90)** (146) Very important Moderately important Only a little important Not at all important Not ure Refued/Prefer not to anwer

30 Global Warming and the U.S. Preidential Election, Spring How important the following iue be when you decide who you will vote for in the 2016 Preidential election? (Cont d.) Terrorim Voter Unweighted Bae (1,004) (451) (218) (163) (103) (399) (103) (90)** (146) Very important Moderately important Only a little important Not at all important Not ure Refued/Prefer not to anwer Health care Voter Unweighted Bae (1,004) (451) (218) (163) (103) (399) (103) (90)** (146) Very important Moderately important Only a little important Not at all important 2 1 * Not ure Refued/Prefer not to anwer

31 Global Warming and the U.S. Preidential Election, Spring How important the following iue be when you decide who you will vote for in the 2016 Preidential election? (Cont d.) Social Security Voter Unweighted Bae (1,004) (451) (218) (163) (103) (399) (103) (90)** (146) Very important Moderately important Only a little important Not at all important 3 1 * Not ure Refued/Prefer not to anwer Federal budget deficit Voter Unweighted Bae (1,004) (451) (218) (163) (103) (399) (103) (90)** (146) Very important Moderately important Only a little important Not at all important Not ure Refued/Prefer not to anwer

32 Global Warming and the U.S. Preidential Election, Spring How important the following iue be when you decide who you will vote for in the 2016 Preidential election? (Cont d.) Education Voter Unweighted Bae (1,004) (451) (218) (163) (103) (399) (103) (90)** (146) Very important Moderately important Only a little important Not at all important Not ure Refued/Prefer not to anwer Tax reform Voter Unweighted Bae (1,004) (451) (218) (163) (103) (399) (103) (90)** (146) Very important Moderately important Only a little important Not at all important Not ure Refued/Prefer not to anwer

33 Global Warming and the U.S. Preidential Election, Spring How important the following iue be when you decide who you will vote for in the 2016 Preidential election? (Cont d.) Immigration reform Voter Unweighted Bae (1,004) (451) (218) (163) (103) (399) (103) (90)** (146) Very important Moderately important Only a little important Not at all important Not ure Refued/Prefer not to anwer Gun control/right Voter Unweighted Bae (1,004) (451) (218) (163) (103) (399) (103) (90)** (146) Very important Moderately important Only a little important Not at all important Not ure Refued/Prefer not to anwer

34 Global Warming and the U.S. Preidential Election, Spring How important the following iue be when you decide who you will vote for in the 2016 Preidential election? (Cont d.) Foreign policy Voter Unweighted Bae (1,004) (451) (218) (163) (103) (399) (103) (90)** (146) Very important Moderately important Only a little important Not at all important Not ure Refued/Prefer not to anwer Income gap between rich and poor Voter Unweighted Bae (1,004) (451) (218) (163) (103) (399) (103) (90)** (146) Very important Moderately important Only a little important Not at all important Not ure Refued/Prefer not to anwer

35 Global Warming and the U.S. Preidential Election, Spring How important the following iue be when you decide who you will vote for in the 2016 Preidential election? (Cont d.) Protecting the environment Voter Unweighted Bae (1,004) (451) (218) (163) (103) (399) (103) (90)** (146) Very important Moderately important Only a little important Not at all important 6 1 * Not ure Refued/Prefer not to anwer 2 3 * Improving the nation road, bridge, and powerline (infratructure) Voter Unweighted Bae (1,004) (451) (218) (163) (103) (399) (103) (90)** (146) Very important Moderately important Only a little important Not at all important 2 1 * Not ure Refued/Prefer not to anwer

36 Global Warming and the U.S. Preidential Election, Spring How important the following iue be when you decide who you will vote for in the 2016 Preidential election? (Cont d.) Energy independence Voter Unweighted Bae (1,004) (451) (218) (163) (103) (399) (103) (90)** (146) Very important Moderately important Only a little important Not at all important Not ure Refued/Prefer not to anwer Supreme Court nomination Voter Unweighted Bae (1,004) (451) (218) (163) (103) (399) (103) (90)** (146) Very important Moderately important Only a little important Not at all important Not ure Refued/Prefer not to anwer

37 Global Warming and the U.S. Preidential Election, Spring How important the following iue be when you decide who you will vote for in the 2016 Preidential election? (Cont d.) Developing ource of clean energy Voter Unweighted Bae (1,004) (451) (218) (163) (103) (399) (103) (90)** (146) Very important Moderately important Only a little important Not at all important Not ure Refued/Prefer not to anwer Race relation Voter Unweighted Bae (1,004) (451) (218) (163) (103) (399) (103) (90)** (146) Very important Moderately important Only a little important Not at all important Not ure Refued/Prefer not to anwer

38 Global Warming and the U.S. Preidential Election, Spring How important the following iue be when you decide who you will vote for in the 2016 Preidential election? (Cont d.) Abortion Voter Unweighted Bae (1,004) (451) (218) (163) (103) (399) (103) (90)** (146) Very important Moderately important Only a little important Not at all important Not ure Refued/Prefer not to anwer Global warming Voter Unweighted Bae (1,004) (451) (218) (163) (103) (399) (103) (90)** (146) Very important Moderately important Only a little important Not at all important Not ure Refued/Prefer not to anwer

39 Global Warming and the U.S. Preidential Election, Spring How important the following iue be when you decide who you will vote for in the 2016 Preidential election? (Cont d.) Campaign finance reform Voter Unweighted Bae (1,004) (451) (218) (163) (103) (399) (103) (90)** (146) Very important Moderately important Only a little important Not at all important Not ure Refued/Prefer not to anwer Reforming Wall Street Voter Unweighted Bae (1,004) (451) (218) (163) (103) (399) (103) (90)** (146) Very important Moderately important Only a little important Not at all important Not ure Refued/Prefer not to anwer 3 2 *

40 Global Warming and the U.S. Preidential Election, Spring How important the following iue be when you decide who you will vote for in the 2016 Preidential election? (Cont d.) International trade Voter Unweighted Bae (1,004) (451) (218) (163) (103) (399) (103) (90)** (146) Very important Moderately important Only a little important Not at all important Not ure Refued/Prefer not to anwer Same-ex marriage Voter Unweighted Bae (1,004) (451) (218) (163) (103) (399) (103) (90)** (146) Very important Moderately important Only a little important Not at all important Not ure Refued/Prefer not to anwer

41 Global Warming and the U.S. Preidential Election, Spring Support for Action on Global Warming How willing or unwilling would you be to join a campaign to convince elected official to take action to reduce global warming? Voter Unweighted Bae (1,004) (451) (218) (163) (103) (399) (103) (90)** (146) Doing now/definitely would Doing now/definitely would/probably would Doing Now Definitely Would Probably Would Definitely would not/probably would not Probably would not Definitely would not Not ure Refued/Prefer not to anwer

42 Global Warming and the U.S. Preidential Election, Spring How much do you upport or oppoe the following policie? Fund more reearch into renewable energy ource, uch a olar and wind power. Voter Unweighted Bae (1,004) (451) (218) (163) (103) (399) (103) (90)** (146) Strongly/Somewhat upport Strongly upport Somewhat upport Strongly/Somewhat oppoe Somewhat oppoe Strongly oppoe Provide tax rebate for people who purchae energy-efficient vehicle or olar panel. Voter Unweighted Bae (1,004) (451) (218) (163) (103) (399) (103) (90)** (146) Strongly/Somewhat upport Strongly upport Somewhat upport Strongly/Somewhat oppoe Somewhat oppoe Strongly oppoe

43 Global Warming and the U.S. Preidential Election, Spring How much do you upport or oppoe the following policie? (Cont d.) ulate carbon dioxide (the primary greenhoue ga) a a pollutant. Voter Unweighted Bae (1,004) (451) (218) (163) (103) (399) (103) (90)** (146) Strongly/Somewhat upport Strongly upport Somewhat upport Strongly/Somewhat oppoe Somewhat oppoe Strongly oppoe Require foil fuel companie to pay a carbon tax and ue the money to reduce other taxe (uch a income tax) by an equal amount. Voter Unweighted Bae (1,004) (451) (218) (163) (103) (399) (103) (90)** (146) Strongly/Somewhat upport Strongly upport Somewhat upport Strongly/Somewhat oppoe Somewhat oppoe Strongly oppoe

44 Global Warming and the U.S. Preidential Election, Spring How much do you upport or oppoe the following policie? (Cont d.) Expand offhore drilling for oil and natural ga off the U.S. coat. Voter Unweighted Bae (1,004) (451) (218) (163) (103) (399) (103) (90)** (146) Strongly/Somewhat upport Strongly upport Somewhat upport Strongly/Somewhat oppoe Somewhat oppoe Strongly oppoe How much do you upport or oppoe the following policy? Set trict carbon dioxide emiion limit on exiting coal-fired power plant to reduce global warming and improve public health. Power plant would have to reduce their emiion and/or invet in renewable energy and energy efficiency. The cot of electricity to conumer and companie would likely increae. Voter Unweighted Bae (1,004) (451) (218) (163) (103) (399) (103) (90)** (146) Strongly/Somewhat upport Strongly upport Somewhat upport Strongly/Somewhat oppoe Somewhat oppoe Strongly oppoe

45 Global Warming and the U.S. Preidential Election, Spring The United State hould reduce it greenhoue ga emiion... Voter Unweighted Bae (1,004) (451) (218) (163) (103) (399) (103) (90)** (146) ardle of what other countrie do Only if other indutrialized countrie (uch a England, Germany, and Japan) reduce their emiion Only if other indutrialized countrie and developing countrie (uch a China, India, and Brazil) reduce their emiion The U.S. hould not reduce it emiion Don't know

46 Global Warming and the U.S. Preidential Election, Spring Appendix II: Survey Method The data in thi report are baed on a nationally repreentative urvey of 1,004 American adult, aged 18 and older, who are regitered to vote. The urvey wa conducted March 18 31, quetionnaire were elf-adminitered by repondent in a web-baed environment. The urvey took, on average, about 26 minute to complete. The ample wa drawn from GfK KnowledgePanel, an online panel of member drawn uing probability ampling method. Propective member are recruited uing a combination of random digit dial and addre-baed ampling technique that cover virtually all (non-intitutional) reident phone number and addree in the United State. Thoe contacted who would chooe to join the panel but do not have acce to the Internet are loaned computer and given Internet acce o they may participate. The ample therefore include a repreentative cro-ection of American adult irrepective of whether they have Internet acce, ue only a cell phone, etc. Key demographic variable were weighted, pot urvey, to match US Cenu Bureau norm. The urvey intrument wa deigned by Anthony Leierowitz, Geoff Feinberg, and Seth Roenthal of Yale Univerity, and Edward Maibach and Connie Roer-Renouf of George Maon Univerity. Margin of error ample are ubject to ome degree of ampling error that i, tatitical reult obtained from a ample can be expected to differ omewhat from reult that would be obtained if every member of the target population wa interviewed. Average margin of error, at the 95% confidence level, are a follow: American regitered to vote: Plu or minu 3 percentage point. including leaner: Plu or minu 5 point. Independent excluding leaner: Plu or minu 10 point. including leaner: Plu or minu 5 point. Hillary upporter: Plu or minu 7 point. Bernie upporter: Plu or minu 8 point. Ted upporter: Plu or minu 10 point. John upporter: Plu or minu 10 point. Donald upporter: Plu or minu 8 point. Rounding error For tabulation purpoe, percentage point are rounded off to the nearet whole number. A a reult, percentage in a given chart may total lightly higher or lower than 100%. Summed repone categorie (e.g., trongly upport + omewhat upport ) are alo rounded.

47 Global Warming and the U.S. Preidential Election, Spring Appendix III: Demographic itered Voter N % (unweighted) (weighted) 1, Men Women Millennial (18-34) Generation X (35-50) Baby Boomer (51-69) WWII (70+) Le than high chool 51 9 High chool graduate Some college/aociate degree/technical degree College graduate Pot graduate <$25K $25K - <$50K $50K - <$75K $75K - <$100K $100K - <$125K $125K Hipanic White, non-hipanic Black, African-American non-hipanic non-hipanic 49 6 Northeat Midwet South Wet

48 Global Warming and the U.S. Preidential Election, Spring Sample N % (unweighted) (weighted) 1, Men Women Millennial (18-34) Generation X (35-50) Baby Boomer (51-69) WWII (70+) Le than high chool High chool graduate Some college/aociate degree/technical degree College graduate Pot graduate <$25K $25K - <$50K $50K - <$75K $75K - <$100K $100K - <$125K $125K Hipanic White, non-hipanic Black, African-American non-hipanic non-hipanic 72 8 Northeat Midwet South Wet

49 Global Warming and the U.S. Preidential Election, Spring Candidate (itered Voter) upporter (N = 218) upporter (N = 163) upporter (N = 103) upporter (N = 90) upporter (N = 146) % % % % % Men Women Millennial (18-34) Generation X (35-50) Baby Boomer (51-69) WWII (70+) Le than high chool High chool graduate Some college/aociate degree/technical degree College graduate Pot graduate <$25K $25K - <$50K $50K - <$75K $75K - <$100K $100K - <$125K $125K Hipanic White, non-hipanic Black, African-American non-hipanic non-hipanic Northeat Midwet South Wet

50 Global Warming and the U.S. Preidential Election, Spring Candidate (itered Voter) Cont d. upporter (N = 218) upporter (N = 163) upporter (N = 103) upporter (N = 90) upporter (N = 146) % % % % % Democrat Democratic-leaning Independent/ Non-leaning Independent/ Republican-leaning Independent/ * Republican No party/not intereted in politic Very liberal Somewhat liberal Moderate, middle of the road Somewhat conervative Very conervative Catholic Protetant (non-evangelical) Evangelical/Born-Again Chritian , non-chritian Agnotic/Atheit None of the above Attend religiou ervice More than once a week Once a week Once or twice a month A few time a year Once a year or le often Never

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